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Originally posted by lordesq:

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Sony had better watch. They, unlike toshiba,are considered "competition" to warner fox and disney yet entering into an agreement to "limit" competition is a highly illegal maneuver.

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Warner Home Video sits on the Board of the BluRay Disc Association (BDA). This decision was made by the studio as a member of the BDA.

There may have been incentives involved but you can be sure all parties had teams of lawyers going over the details before Warner made the announcement.

This is probably why Warner is still releasing HD DVD titles until the end of May. I think they have a contract with HD DVD that expires this June.

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this explains the reason for the change of heart and dropping of HDVD stuff, they are closer to the BR core than some of the others.

Look at it this way: Warner going BluRay exclusive doesn't "limit the competition" as you say.

Sony is not the only CE manufacturer making BluRay players. It has competition from Samsung, Panasonic, Pioneer, LG, Philips, etc.

Warner Home Video is not the only studio releasing titles. There's competition from Sony, Disney, MGM, Fox, etc.

Plus there's competition from regular DVD, Video On Demand, and Video downloads.

I don't think you're getting me. We're talking about High Definition Disc Distribution. Not downloads, not dvd, not VHS...(thats a little joke). Cellphones and Plain old telephone lines are regulated differently because they are infact different, although they serve similar purposes. We are also not talking about content.

Try this perspective. Since its inseption Bluray and HDDVD have gone down in price from over $1,000 to (right now on amazon for an HDDVD player) $178. The movies have gone from 30 bucks a pop to bogo deals left and right. That's because there has been competition. What sony has done is, realizing that they cannot compete in price, have negotiated with the "competing studios" to sell movies on their format exclusively. This is the very defenition of unfair business practice. I emplore you to read on the Federal Trade Commision's website about competition. If the format war never existed and everybody agreed at the beginning to produce a singular format you would still have players at the $500 or higher level. Do you think bluray players will come down to sub $200 levels now? Not anytime soon! Especially if Sony wants to continue to sell PS3's.

Originally posted by lordesq:

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I don't think you're getting me. We're talking about High Definition Disc Distribution. Not downloads, not dvd, not VHS...(thats a little joke). Cellphones and Plain old telephone lines are regulated differently because they are infact different, although they serve similar purposes. We are also not talking about content.

Try this perspective. Since its inseption Bluray and HDDVD have gone down in price from over $1,000 to (right now on amazon for an HDDVD player) $178. The movies have gone from 30 bucks a pop to bogo deals left and right. That's because there has been competition. What sony has done is, realizing that they cannot compete in price, have negotiated with the "competing studios" to sell movies on their format exclusively. This is the very defenition of unfair business practice. I emplore you to read on the Federal Trade Commision's website about competition. If the format war never existed and everybody agreed at the beginning to produce a singular format you would still have players at the $500 or higher level. Do you think bluray players will come down to sub $200 levels now? Not anytime soon! Especially if Sony wants to continue to sell PS3's.

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I think Sony just said there is going to be a blue ray drive avaialable for your computer for $200. This sucks - I just bought a HD DVD player around thanksgiving for $179 and now I'm gonna have to shell out the $400 for a blue ray.

Originally posted by lordesq:

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What sony has done is, realizing that they cannot compete in price, have negotiated with the "competing studios" to sell movies on their format exclusively.

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Actually BluRay was competing very well against HD DVD. BluRay movies have been outselling HD DVD for 54 weeks straight prior to the Warner announcement. (Just look at the Nielsen/Videoscan sales data.) That's even with a disadvantage in player prices. At the Toshiba presentation at CES 2008 yesterday they even acknowledged indirectly that BluRay was also catching up in standalone player sales.

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This is the very defenition of unfair business practice.

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Let's say Warner accepted a $500 million offer from HD DVD to drop BluRay then BluRay eventually loses. By your definition this would be a case of "limiting the competition", an unfair business practice, and would therefore be illegal. Am I right?

Actually this was what was about to happen. Warner was ready to side with HD DVD until a last minute deal was struck. There was supposed to be a very big announcement at their CES party last night - which was cancelled BTW. Let's face it, BluRay had the better negotiating team and pulled off a great business deal. HD DVD have no one else to blame but themselves for letting Warner slip through their fingers.

Originally posted by juankerr:

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Originally posted by lordesq:

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What sony has done is, realizing that they cannot compete in price, have negotiated with the "competing studios" to sell movies on their format exclusively.

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Actually BluRay was competing very well against HD DVD. BluRay movies have been outselling HD DVD for 54 weeks straight prior to the Warner announcement. (Just look at the Nielsen/Videoscan sales data.) That's even with a disadvantage in player prices. At the Toshiba presentation at CES 2008 yesterday they even acknowledged indirectly that BluRay was also catching up in standalone player sales.

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This is the very defenition of unfair business practice.

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Let's say Warner accepted a $500 million offer from HD DVD to drop BluRay then BluRay eventually loses. By your definition this would be a case of "limiting the competition", an unfair business practice, and would therefore be illegal. Am I right?

Actually this was what was about to happen. Warner was ready to side with HD DVD until a last minute deal was struck. There was supposed to be a very big announcement at their CES party last night - which was cancelled BTW. Let's face it, BluRay had the better negotiating team and pulled off a great business deal. HD DVD have no one else to blame but themselves for letting Warner slip through their fingers.

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Selling very well? I don't think so with the number of players BR has out they should have a 3-6 to 1 lead not a pitfall 2 to 1 lead, yes BR is doing alttile better but it the scheme of things its not by much and certainly not enough for a studio to jump formats on "consumer" issues, its a pure "green" deal nothing less nothing more its a shame ti had to be warner who wanted to sale on both formats and not be tied down by the high costs of BR production and royilies, but in the end 1 format one format is probably better for the consumer in the short run.. havign the market compete with itself one tech is more simple and can wind up lowering prices faster as long as there is no price fixing "from above".

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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I don't think so with the number of players BR has out they should have a 3-6 to 1 lead not a pitfall 2 to 1 lead, yes BR is doing alttile better but it the scheme of things its not by much and certainly not enough for a studio to jump formats on "consumer" issues

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The problem with that argument is that the you conveniently include the PS3 numbers when you talk about software sales ratios or attachment rates then you conveniently remove the PS3 from the picture when you talk about player sales. You can't have it both ways.

The difficulty lies in the fact that no one knows for sure how many use the PS3 to watch BluRay and how much BD movies the PS3 owners buy. The "PS3 effect" is an unknown quantity.

The bottom line is the BluRay side played the game perfectly. They knew when they had to make their moves and caught HD DVD with their pants down. error5 and juankerr are right. Whoever managed to pull this off were geniuses.

For now I'm keeping my 2 HD DVD players and my HD DVD collection of about 100 movies. I still have my PS3 but I'm looking out for that new Panasonic BD50 with internal DTS HD MA and True HD decoding and BD Live 2.0 specs.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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I don't think so with the number of players BR has out they should have a 3-6 to 1 lead not a pitfall 2 to 1 lead, yes BR is doing alttile better but it the scheme of things its not by much and certainly not enough for a studio to jump formats on "consumer" issues

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The problem with that argument is that the you conveniently include the PS3 numbers when you talk about software sales ratios or attachment rates then you conveniently remove the PS3 from the picture when you talk about player sales. You can't have it both ways.

The difficulty lies in the fact that no one knows for sure how many use the PS3 to watch BluRay and how much BD movies the PS3 owners buy. The "PS3 effect" is an unknown quantity.

The bottom line is the BluRay side played the game perfectly. They knew when they had to make their moves and caught HD DVD with their pants down. error5 and juankerr are right. Whoever managed to pull this off were geniuses.

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Its rather easy to reduce the PS3 sales numbers to 30 or 50% will still give a a huge lead to BR in terms of player sales numbers which are not really fermenting disc sales in the amounts it should be.

In any case the format war is not over and BR has only a 60-70% chance of victory as things are.

Dose anyone know when they are going to drop prices again or when they when the blu diode will be cheaper to produce, when BR gets cheaper the end will come quickly and frankly its about time.

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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BR has only a 60-70% chance of victory as things are.

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How did you figure that?

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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BR has only a 60-70% chance of victory as things are.

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How did you figure that?

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the future is uncertain, if paramount and uni go daul thats 75-85% chance of victory, if one or both go BR exclusive 85-90%.

and yes this is 100% tatained with the foul odor of my poo maker but for now BR dose not have a 90%+ chance to win the Hdef war, if other things fall into place they will gain it for sure but for now they only own alil more than half of the niche Hdef market.

In comparison HDVD has a 20-40% chance of winning the Hdef war currently, and I would still give 20-35%(or 2-3.5 in 10) chance at them joining forces but with ever year that passes that drops 10% so if by 09 no end is in sight and HDVD is still in the market even if by 20-30% the chances of a joint venture for media is 10-15%, hell by 09 the Hdef format war could well be over.

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BLUE-RAY THUGH LIFE HOMIES! CRAZY BLUE-RAY FOR LIFE! N WHUT!

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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if one or both go BR exclusive 85-90%.

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85 - 90%? You're kidding right?

If one goes BR exclusive the other is sure to follow then it's game over. HD DVD cannot survive without one of the big 6 studios.

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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if one or both go BR exclusive 85-90%.

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85 - 90%? You're kidding right?

If one goes BR exclusive the other is sure to follow then it's game over. HD DVD cannot survive without one of the big 6 studios.

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first off there is no such thing as 100%, there are also 2ndary markets where HDVD could be viable thus keeping it aloft for years, there are also economic issues to worry about the market could just fall apart or be damaged beyond vision, what would happen if the US falls into a great depression in 3 years time and it slows the world economy just enough, there are to many circumstances to state anythign over 90/95% butI will say that90% is praticaly a win.

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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there are also 2ndary markets where HDVD could be viable thus keeping it aloft for years,

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Do you mean p0rn?

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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there are also 2ndary markets where HDVD could be viable thus keeping it aloft for years,

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Do you mean p0rn?

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Storage,porn,cams,ect,ect if its cheaper than BR to make mini HDVD discs and what not its very viable for 2ndry markets,frankly it would make for a better console format than BR just for the roylity and production costs alone but in 2+ years out thos might be more manageable than they are currently.. oh gwad...I jsut said nintendo would use HDVD in the furture didn't I....with their pension for "obsruce" formats it has to coem to be LOL.
:P

Let's say Warner accepted a $500 million offer from HD DVD to drop BluRay then BluRay eventually loses. By your definition this would be a case of "limiting the competition", an unfair business practice, and would therefore be illegal. Am I right?

Actually this was what was about to happen. Warner was ready to side with HD DVD until a last minute deal was struck. There was supposed to be a very big announcement at their CES party last night - which was cancelled BTW. Let's face it, BluRay had the better negotiating team and pulled off a great business deal. HD DVD have no one else to blame but themselves for letting Warner slip through their fingers.

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Absolutley. I'm not a fanboy, just using logic. If Toshiba did the same thing it would still be limiting the competition. Its slightly less offensive because toshiba does not own a movie production studio and is not in competition with warner. I happen to own both a ps3 and a HDDVD standalone...I actually don't think the blu ray is superior. They both do exactly the same thing.

HD movies on USB thumb drives is the future, who wants a fragile disc anyways.

Scrap the whole Blu-Ray and HD-DVD
Concentrate on USB stick which can vary in sizes (because not all HD movies require 25-50 GBs), gives the same HD quality and will last longer than any crappy disc. Think of the consumers for once.

If any company wants to prevail as leader bring out the HD-USB movie stick!!!

Originally posted by chubbyInc:

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HD movies on USB thumb drives is the future, who wants a fragile disc anyways.

Scrap the whole Blu-Ray and HD-DVD
Concentrate on USB stick which can vary in sizes (because not all HD movies require 25-50 GBs), gives the same HD quality and will last longer than any crappy disc. Think of the consumers for once.

If any company wants to prevail as leader bring out the HD-USB movie stick!!!

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USB(flash,ect)? I don't think so not with it still being 8-13$ per GB, now if, disc will be viable for the movie industry for 10-20 years until they can make a 20-50GB storage device thats small and under 20$.

It will take more than 20 years for the world to become "rich" enough in bandwidth for the media industry's to sale "data" direct to the consumer on a world wide basis so discs are good for the next 15 years easily.

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ooh I don't know about 20yrs. I can download a movie on my 360 in about 40min in 720p hd today. I think in the next couple of years discs will serve as a stepping stone to downloads...although we'll need something to put those discs on...my biggest complaint about the 360 is that the movies are only good for one view or 14 days from download. I want to be able to download an hd movie and then burn it so I can keep it. A combo of a download service with jvc's hd dvd solution would be loads better than the current solutions.

Originally posted by lordesq:

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ooh I don't know about 20yrs. I can download a movie on my 360 in about 40min in 720p hd today. I think in the next couple of years discs will serve as a stepping stone to downloads...although we'll need something to put those discs on...my biggest complaint about the 360 is that the movies are only good for one view or 14 days from download. I want to be able to download an hd movie and then burn it so I can keep it. A combo of a download service with jvc's hd dvd solution would be loads better than the current solutions.

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*falls off chair*
If they can not sale in volume world wide they can not make a profit, there is not enough users world wide to sustain the indutry on digital download alone thus why you are looking at 10+ years before the switch to it, just because you and 500K-1M people who can download a HD movie in less than an hour dosen't mean the 1B worth of the populace that spends money on media can. The millions upon milloins of people who are not online is where the media industrys bread and butter is at thus why discs and or single film devices will be very relevant to them in that time frame.

The industry dose not work on whats best it works on what they can sell to not only the consumer but to them selfs, BR/discs are here to stay for 10 years easily outside of 10 I can see did distro taking over 5-20% of the "dsic" market but what is most likely you will have "discs" for 20.

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You think poor people in third world countries with dial up are currently in the market for and hdtv and a high def player???

Originally posted by lordesq:

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You think poor people in third world countries with dial up are currently in the market for and hdtv and a high def player???

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Are they buying DVD? yes why because tis the mainstream format backed by the media industry of the world...you are getting Hdef and current standards crossed, Hdef is a niche market and will be until it can saturate the market's and that wont be till it comes within range of DVDs prices.

Even 2nd world nations don't have good net infrastructure on top of that the US is still only 50-70% covered in reliable fast cheap internet... you are fooling yourself if you think that digital downloads are viable for the media industry's as the main channel to distribute film, that simply wont come to pass for 10-20 years.

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I'm not foolish. I'm not attacking you. Don't attack me. I just think technology is advancing far faster than you give it credit. Think 20yrs back. We're talking 1988! What internet were you surfing in 1988?

Originally posted by lordesq:

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I'm not foolish. I'm not attacking you. Don't attack me. I just think technology is advancing far faster than you give it credit. Think 20yrs back. We're talking 1988! What internet were you surfing in 1988?

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20 years might be to long, but 10-15 is more than likely, unless the media industry has learned from MS and will make a short trem standards that only lasts 3-4 years(...think of ME..and vista :P)

I understand that growth of tech is fast but also there is the growth of the industry and its financial needs to take into consideration when you are talking abotu changing how media is solely or mainly disturbed on a world wide scale.

Discs will be the main distribution point for media for 5-10 years easily beyond that the industry could head a 2 front effort to ween the world of discs and head a replacement effort for discs. The main problem with replacing discs is that outside of 15 years bandwidth should have grown enough world wide for the media industries to halve or drop physical distribution.

PS:we all are fools in our own way, least me and the vocies think so ^_~

PSS:I also think its foolish to think the media conglomerates would drop physical distribution in less than 10 years,there just to much money to be had to not do both until one is unprofiable.

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No I don't think disc distribution is going to stop. Certainly I think the way we receive our media is going to change. We used to buy cds. I haven't bought a cd in years. That happened pretty fast too. Also we're talking about premium services. We're not talking about the masses yet. It will be a long time before HDTVs make it into the majority of households...and I don't mean digital set top boxes, I mean 42inch or greater 720p or higher tv sets. These are the people who bought playstations to play movies on and download content on their macs so they can watch movies on their phones. The target for HD for the next five years is not india, china, or Russia; its america, japan and europe. These are the consumers that will pay a premium for enhanced picture quality. Which is what we're talking about. Its not unreasonable to think that their methods of acquiring entertainment will change and change quickly.

Originally posted by lordesq:

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No I don't think disc distribution is going to stop. Certainly I think the way we receive our media is going to change. We used to buy cds. I haven't bought a cd in years. That happened pretty fast too. Also we're talking about premium services. We're not talking about the masses yet. It will be a long time before HDTVs make it into the majority of households...and I don't mean digital set top boxes, I mean 42inch or greater 720p or higher tv sets. These are the people who bought playstations to play movies on and download content on their macs so they can watch movies on their phones. The target for HD for the next five years is not india, china, or Russia; its america, japan and europe. These are the consumers that will pay a premium for enhanced picture quality. Which is what we're talking about. Its not unreasonable to think that their methods of acquiring entertainment will change and change quickly.

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well we are aguring over the same thing but diffrent ends, I was thinking you were talking abotu replacing the main distro of media with digi,

my bad...zomg zippy focus on one thing zippy mash LOL


but ya theres no doubt Hdef will grow and so will digi distro but it will be 10+ if not 15+ years before digi distro the becomes main focal point of the industry.

I think 5-10 to get Hdef to become fully mainstream and another 5-10 on top of it for digi distro to replace it at 50% or above.

But truthfully I think digi distro's main trouble is high speed broadband proliferation and land lines I really think in the next 50 years when satilite tech really breaks to replace land line and we have high speed (5Mbits/700KBPS+) thats when digi distro will be everything, but even without it in 15-20 eyars there should be enough of the world to support media services that can offer "everything" online.

Gee..kinda like what we have now with torrents and such but costing like cable/TV a small monthly fee under 50$ to have access to large media libraries and the media conglomerates would just get a cut or deals to advertise on thos services, of coarse this service would be agreed upon by all media industries in a move to maintain profit having a simplified agreement of profit sharing between the services and the CP/IP "owners"....but that might be wishful thinking LOL.

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