AfterDawn: Tech news

Blu-ray will replace DVD within three years?

Written by James Delahunty (Google+) @ 15 Mar 2007 8:27 User comments (37)

Blu-ray will replace DVD within three years? The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) has made a bold claim at CeBIT this year. The consortium behind the Blu-ray Disc format, expect the 25GB-per-layer optical medium to actually replace the current DVD technology within three years. "Within three years it will just be Blu-ray," Frank Simonis, the Blu-ray Disc Association European chairman said at CeBIT, the world's biggest technology trade show.
Having already declared its own victory over its rival, HD DVD, Blu-ray has gone on to outsell HD DVD in the United States where the PlayStation 3 (PS3) console is available. This has led to speculation of further price cuts from the HD DVD camp, in an effort to curb the initial buzz that Blu-ray receives from PS3 owners who are completely new to HD.

However, replacing HD DVD fast could be possible if Blu-ray sorts out its prices and keeps the PS3 console selling strong, but even three whole years is a very short time to hope to replace DVD. DVD is a huge success story in the industry as a medium to sell movies (DVD-Video) and to sell games (PS2, Xbox, PC) and software (DVD-ROM). It has also become a major success for consumers who use the format for data storage, for home movies, in DVD recorders etc.

A double-layer DVD holds about 8.5GB of data and with price cuts for DVD-R/+R DL discs and the emergence of cheaper hardware to record even HD broadcasts to the media, BOC expects double layer disc sales to double this year alone. Of course, blue laser discs will replace red laser-based media eventually, that is the direction the industry is going, but within three years is not that likely.

Source:
Reuters


AfterDawn's Agent_007 is at CeBIT this year and will maintain a blog and keep pictures and videos uploaded to the site at: http://www.afterdawn.com/cebit07/

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37 user comments

115.3.2007 9:00

I guess only time will tell, but if prices come down then it has a chance, but I still think that the universal format players (CD/DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-Ray) are the ones that people will buy and I am sure no one wants to re-purchase their entire movie collection on the BluRay format. Anyone that locks themselve into a single format HD-DVD or BluRay is wasting their money.

215.3.2007 9:56
cascadeuk
Inactive

'The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) has made a bold claim at CeBIT this year. The consortium behind the Blu-ray Disc format, expect the 25GB-per-layer optical medium to actually replace the current DVD technology within three years. "Within three years it will just be Blu-ray,"

Don't they mean Sony said this

315.3.2007 10:35

The BluRay Disc Association or BDA is composed of hardware manufaturers, content providers, movie studios and tech companies:

http://www.blu-raydisc.com/general_infor...4009/Index.html

Quote:
Board of Directors
Apple, Inc.
Dell
HP
Hitachi
LG
Mitsubishi Electric
Panasonic
Pioneer
Philips
Samsung
Sharp
Sony
Sun Microsystems
TDK
Thomson
Twentieth Century Fox
Walt Disney
Warner Bros.

Contributors

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Almedio Inc.
Alticast
Aplix Corporation
ArcSoft, Inc.
Atmel Corporation
AudioDev AB
Broadcom Corporation
Canon Inc.
CMC Magnetics Corporation
Coding Technologies GmbH
Cryptography Research Inc.
CyberLink Corp.
DATARIUS Technologies GmbH
Daxon Technology Inc.
DCA Inc.
Deluxe Media Services Inc.
Dolby Laboratories Inc.
DTS, Inc.
Electronic Arts Inc.
Esmertec
ESS Technology Inc.
Freescale Semiconductor
FUJIFILM Corporation
Fujitsu Ltd.
Gibson Guitar Corp.
Horizon Semiconductor
Imation Corp.
InterVideo Inc.
Kenwood Corporation
Lionsgate Entertainment
LITE-ON IT Corporation
LSI Logic
MediaTek Inc.
Meridian Audio Ltd.
Mitsubishi Kagaku Media Co.Ltd.
Mitsui Chemicals Inc.
Moser Baer India Limited
NEC Electronics Corporation
Nero
Paramount Pictures Corporation
Pixela Corporation
Prodisc Technology Inc.
Pulstec Industrial Co., Ltd.
Ricoh Co., Ltd.
Ritek Corporation
ShibaSoku Co. Ltd.
Sigma Designs Inc.
Sonic Solutions
Sonopress
Sony BMG Music Entertainment
ST Microelectronics
Sunext
Taiyo Yuden Co., Ltd.,
Texas Instruments, Inc.
Victor Company of Japan, Ltd.
Visionare Corporation
Zentek Technology Japan, Inc.
ZOOtech Ltd.
Zoran Corporation

Members

Adobe Systems
Alpine Electronics Inc.
Arima Devices Corporation
ashampoo GmbH & Co. KG
Bandai Visual Co. Ltd.
BASF AG
Basler Vision Technologies
BenQ Corporation
B.H.A. Corporation
Bose Corporation
B&W Group
The Cannery
Cheertek Inc.
Cinram Manufacturing Inc.
CustomFlix Labs, Inc.
Custom Technology Inc.
D&M holdings, Inc.
Daewoo Electronics Corporation
Daikin Industries, Ltd.
Degussa
Eclipse Data Technologies
Elpida Memory, Inc.
Expert Magnetics Corp.
Fujitsu Ten Ltd.
Funai Electric Co., Ltd.
GalleryPlayer Media Networks
Gear Software
Global Machinery Co., Ltd.
Hie Electronics, Inc.
Hoei Sangyo Co., Ltd.
IMAGICA Corp.
INFODISC Technology Co., Ltd.
Infomedia Inc.
Intersil Corporation
Iwatsu Test Instruments
Kadokawa Holdings Inc.
Kaleidescape, Inc.
Kitano Co., Ltd.
Konica Minolta Opto Inc.
Lauda Co. Ltd.
Lead Data Inc.
LEADER ELECTRONICS CORP
Lenovo
Linn Products Ltd.
LINTEC Corporation
M2 Engineering AB
MainConcept AG
Mitsumi Electric Co., Ltd.
Must Technology Co., Ltd.
MX Entertainment
Netflix Inc.
Newtech Infosystems Inc.
NexWave Solutions
Nichia Corporation
Nikkatsu Corporation
NTT Electronics Corporation
nVidia Corporation
OC Oerlikon Balzer AG
Omnibus Japan Inc.
Onkyo Corporation
Online Media Technologies Ltd.
Ono Sokki Co., Ltd.
OPT Corporation
Optodisc Technology Corporation
Origin Electric Co., Ltd.
Osmosys SA
Pinnacle Systems
Plannet Associates
PoINT Software & Systems GmbH
Pony Canyon Enterprise
PowerFile
Primera Technology, Inc.
Q-Tek, Inc.
Quanta Storage Inc.
Realtek Semiconductor Corp.
Rimage Corporation
Sanyo Electric Co., Ltd.
Dr. Schwab Inspection Technology GmbH
Shinano Kenshi Co. Ltd.
Singulus Technologies
STEAG ETA-OPTIK GmbH
Tao Group Limited
Targray Technology International Inc.
TEAC Corporation
Teijin Chemicals Ltd.
Texas Instruments, Inc.
THX Ltd.
Toei Video Company Ltd.
Toho Company, Ltd.
Toppan Printing Co., Ltd.
TOPTICA Photonics AG
Trailer Park
UmeDisc Ltd.
Vivendi Universal Games
Yamaha Corporation
Yokogawa Electric Corporation
1K Studios, LLC

415.3.2007 12:13

I have a load of vhs tapes sitting here because it took me forever to start this dvd craze. Now that the dvd's are beginning to come into my life they want to say screw that and jump into the more expensive blue ray fiasco. Why cant the consumers just stop and stick with one item instead of wanting to change every 3-4 years. These regular dvd's work just fine and having "extra storage and hd content" is not something that means very much to me personally.

515.3.2007 12:26
BobbyBlu
Inactive

Cmon Blu-ray its to early for this it took DVD three year before people start buying it mainly because of the price.Plus Blu-ray have yet to take HD-DVD final punch a huge price cut could hurt Blu-ray.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 15 Mar 2007 @ 12:27

615.3.2007 12:59

I think this quotes stills rings true for those that error5 listed.
"When we hang the capitalist they will sell us the rope we use".
Joseph Stalin

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 15 Mar 2007 @ 13:00

715.3.2007 13:13

/me chuckles at piratedan.

BDA is a bunch of pretentious turds, eh?

815.3.2007 13:45

Well I'm so glad they declared themselves the winner, and so soon in this stupid format war. I'll be sure to head off to my local BestBuy and pick up a Blu-ray player. Oh and I'll make sure to buy my whole movie collection in Blu-ray and just throw out my copies on DVD!!! Because isn't that what those idiots want?

915.3.2007 13:50

you can fit 10 regular DVD video Disc on a 50GB BD. why carry around 10 different movies... when disney will put all your favorites in one.

1015.3.2007 15:17

This is just my inference on what they are saying but I don't think they mean DVD's will be completely gone in 3 years. I think they are stating something more like the media state last year. Probably 90% of new movies sold were on DVD. Yeah you could still buy them on VHS, but it was such a small percentage of the sales. And people aren't all replacing their vhs tapes. Gradually over time yes as these older movies can be bought cheap.

I think they were trying to say in 3 years most movies sold will be Blu-ray with a much smaller percentage sold on DVD. Prices will come down. They always do as more players get in the game. A few years ago it was hard to find a dvd player under $75. Now you can have your choice of 20 different ones for 40.

I think some people here read to literally into what is said in these news items and others comments. Read it, process it, think about it, and then reply. It might actually lead to more intelligent conversations as opposed to the mindless flaming.

1115.3.2007 16:39
BobbyBlu
Inactive

Originally posted by klassic:
I think some people here read to literally into what is said in these news items and others comments. Read it, process it, think about it, and then reply. It might actually lead to more intelligent conversations as opposed to the mindless flaming.
Amen Brotha if you was close to me i would buy you a beer on me.

1215.3.2007 18:23

Originally posted by lxfactor:
you can fit 10 regular DVD video Disc on a 50GB BD. why carry around 10 different movies... when disney will put all your favorites in one.
Yeah, for around $400! Wow! Animation in HD? Tell me its not possible!

1315.3.2007 20:09

This is so gay. It's like saying zune will replace ipods in 3 years. STFU sony, i'm stick of your garbage, PS3 will cure cancer. you are sick bastard sony. at least microsoft donates.

1415.3.2007 20:48

Bobby blu
Cant argue there its going tot take 3 years for new formats to get anywhere.



rihgt682
using gay as a diss is gay you know....anyway its not the PS3 curing canser but the internet :P

1516.3.2007 3:15

Regular DVD will not face the same faith as VHS did, because regardless of the future outcome of this HD war, regular DVD will never go away as long it keeps the consumers preference, and outsales any HD-DVD or Blu-ray release...

Thanks to upscaling, any viewer can achieve a 720p/1080i on their HD-TV sets, and you can get such DVD players with upscaling for less than US$150, which is an reasonable and accesible price to all consumers to get a near-HD quality from any regular DVD movie, and if regular DVD movies and players keep being cheaper than Blu-ray and HD-DVD, consumers will keep buying them...

By the way any digital HD broadcast signal will offer viewers a 720p/1080i picture, so if you are pleased with HD-TV signal, you'll content with upscaled regular DVD, and you don't have to repurchase your entire collection... thanks upscaling!

1616.3.2007 8:09

right now i hope Blu-ray wins boes HD DVD have burners out yet?

1716.3.2007 8:18

DVD's will go away, it just won't be in 3 years it will be a long time before you can't use them any more. Everything goes away eventually that's just the way life goes. And why go to DVD’s now when VHS is so great and lasts forever…. Ya right.

Up converting a crap signal makes it look even worst so I don't understand where you’re going with that statement. The only nice thing is you can use you HD mode for everything and don't need two sets. Viewing SDTV on HD isn't every good typically.

You have to love marketeers they always lie through their teeth when presenting their products. If people we're smart they would call them on it during their sales pitch. No way are DVD's going away in three years and obviously BD has not won the battle yet, hopefully they will. It's also good that HD is going strong, especially in Europe, since it is good for everyone that there is competition. Prices are already dropping in both camps and they are pushing hard to make improvements.

Why is it that so many people think BD is Sony and ONLY Sony. Is this the PS3 cult where Sony is the only thing in the universe? I dislike Sony with a passion but that doesn’t mean I totally rule them out. Their LCD TV’s rule over everyone else but they also cost 2x compared to the others, in this case it is worth it.

Why you would brag about cartoons in HD is beyond me that is the lowest resolution production, what do they typically use a 32 color palette? WOW that's impressive and typically no shading.

1816.3.2007 9:06

I like how the Board of Directors for BluRay has pretty much everybody, including Disney and Warner Bros. Sony is just one of the more upfront companies for BluRay, there are so many others, like Apple and HP. I wonder who's backing HD-DVD anyways...

I noticed Nero and Adobe and a few other names in the Contributors/Members list as well.

1916.3.2007 20:23

Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
DVD's will go away, it just won't be in 3 years it will be a long time before you can't use them any more. Everything goes away eventually that's just the way life goes. And why go to DVD’s now when VHS is so great and lasts forever…. Ya right.

Up converting a crap signal makes it look even worst so I don't understand where you’re going with that statement. The only nice thing is you can use you HD mode for everything and don't need two sets. Viewing SDTV on HD isn't every good typically.
The same thing was said 10 years ago about CDs, and we still use them! The music industry keeps releasing their stuff in CD, people will continue to use CD to store data, and burn their music... exactly the same case with DVDs, specially if new movie releases on regular DVD became cheaper to buy, because consumers will rather pay the least possible for entertaiment.

Laser-Discs offered a better quality than VHS, but Laser-Discs was no match, people prefered VHS because it was CHEAPER! CDs and regular DVDs will still be prefered by consumers, and that's why we will still have them, regardless of new disc media that comes out in the future.

Finally, anybody that has seen a regular DVD movie using upscaling on a LCD HD-TV, notices a dramatic improvement in picture quality, its not HD but its near HD, much better that watching the same regular DVD movie without upscaling on a conventional TV, and its not crappy at all, if only you should choose a upscaling DVD player that does the work properly.

2016.3.2007 21:00

Its strange how those companies try to push inferior technology in your face inferior being Blu-ray. Its been many decades since disc technology was created, I think they would of created something better than Blu-ray or HD-DVD. Movies on thin 12mm plastic disc, with alluminum, wtf. thats old. but it looks with each new technological leap just leads to something more fragile. I believe the main focus when creating new technology should be good quality, which is not seen these days. many years ago you would buy, a new tv every few like almost 10 years, now its down to like 3 years. I wonder through how many tvs, vcrs, dvds, computers you have gone through these couple of years. they talk about global warming here is the cause.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 16 Mar 2007 @ 21:05

2117.3.2007 6:18

Quote:
I like how the Board of Directors for BluRay has pretty much everybody, including Disney and Warner Bros. Sony is just one of the more upfront companies for BluRay, there are so many others, like Apple and HP. I wonder who's backing HD-DVD anyways...

I noticed Nero and Adobe and a few other names in the Contributors/Members list as well.
Sorry I kind of had to laugh since HP released a new media center PC with an HD-DVD drive just a little while back. And to tell you the truth I don't really know who Apple is supporting.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 17 Mar 2007 @ 6:19

2217.3.2007 7:22

Adamontar
Besides the clinging to mpeg2,witch they are finally getting away from whats inferior about BR?

2317.3.2007 19:26
SamNz
Inactive

Originally posted by Adamontar:
Its strange how those companies try to push inferior technology in your face inferior being Blu-ray. Its been many decades since disc technology was created, I think they would of created something better than Blu-ray or HD-DVD. Movies on thin 12mm plastic disc, with alluminum, wtf. thats old. but it looks with each new technological leap just leads to something more fragile. I believe the main focus when creating new technology should be good quality, which is not seen these days. .


i was sorta thinking along the same line. why does it hav to be a disc. im sure they could come up with somthing more durabile. and apart from the Whole backward combatiblity thing there isnt much stopping them.

2417.3.2007 19:39
janrocks
Inactive

Why does this all sound so boringly familiar..

and for the record, my vcr was made in 1984 and my TV is an antique which has lasted since 1973 (ferguson 3500)...

What's this addiction with new new new anyway? got money to burn.. throw some my way!

I notice that though people have been able to buy music as mp3 downloads for 3 years and more cd disks are still outselling and other form of music distribution format despite being a quarter of a century old. Added to that the fact that music is still available on cassette (1964 and a really crap format) It's pointless and stupid for anybody to say that any new thing will end a very successful format, and to have the nerve to predict a timescale is either very misguided or relying on the drooling fanboys to keep spouting on and on about how something has "won".. Strewth, you can still buy the hardware to play lp's !

2517.3.2007 20:00

There is no way any blue ray or hd will replace our dvd's in 3 years, maybe not even in ten, everybody I talk to has no interest in either one, if these people think we will start redoing our colloections because of a minor upgrade thier nuts.

2617.3.2007 20:35
ronlin819
Inactive

Interesting dialog. Some seem to think that one format will remain always. I would like to draw your attention to the Beta vs VHS war that occured approximately 20 years ago. I had a library of approximately 500 Beta tapes, because the format was better in fidelity and video quality. However VHS won out over Beta because you could place more content on a VHS tape than a Beta tape. And hardware became unavailable even from Sony who developed the format. Here is one case were quality video and Audio gave way to the convenience of larger content. Blue_Ray has a higher content capability than HD_Dvd.
I seriously believe based on that factor alone Blue_Ray may very well win out over HD_Dvd. As yet I am not going to jump on the band wagon until the quality vs content is finally determined.I have noted that Lite-on has fielded a Blue _Ray capable DVD Rom Drive for approximately $550.00. That price will decrease probably within the next year. I have not seen an HD_Dvd drive marketed as yet. If it does and the price is right you will see both get in a tug of war for market share. Presently Blue_Ray dominates the availablity of media titles. So it is possible they may win out in the long run.

2717.3.2007 21:19

I remember the beta vhs war very well, I also remember the difference in quality both audio and video was very nill to the the naked eye and ear, what a stupid war that was, now thier trying to pull the same shit with this br and hd, sorry most people are not buying into it, and a rom drive for $550, you gotta be shittin me, we buy drives now for 80 bucks and under, and I dont think these people will be selling these drives for that kind of price anytime soon.

I have seen movies in br and hd already, compared to watching a dvd on these high def ready sets under 40in screens there isnt much difference, its when you go to 40 and over is when you see a differnece in br or hd, and even than its not that much of a differnece. For triple the price and starting new collictions, no way, and for most people that still remember the beta vhs war they especially will not buy into this crap.

2818.3.2007 0:55

FredBun/Jan
there are steps the industry takes ,
one find a new thing
2 sale it
3 the market will declear it win/lose,

4if win price drops

6 if win lvl 2 it will take 10 years for the product to "mature" and sasturate said market.

7.slowly repalce the thing thats being replaced near the last half of the 10years


SO currently we are in a transition from 3 to 4 ,in 2-4 years prices will drop dramatically sasturateing the market and thus will begin the replacement pried.

DVD has another 10-20 years left easily hell VHS has not been fully replaced so DVD is almost garreuted other 2 decades.

2918.3.2007 1:01

Ditto, I would say your pretty much on the money.

3018.3.2007 1:37

janrocks and Fredbun... you got exactly my point!

Not every new format has sure success... remember Laser-Disc?... it depends entirely of consumer acceptance, but why should people spend more money, even if in 2-3 years prices do lower, to repurchase their entire movie collections, TVs and players, just for the benefit of a higher resolution that only can be distingished throw very large displays, when most of us are more than content with a less than 40 inch TV screen.

Regular DVD offered more advantages ten years ago... VHS handled an analog signal, recorded magnetically on its tape, which damaged easily and in a few years it deteriodes... DVD offered a more consumer friendly option, with an digital signal laser burned on disc, and well perserved and hadled could last a life time.

So far neither Blu-ray or HD-DVD has given a valid reason to accept them... sure they handle a higher resolution and have more storage capability, but they don't offer you more content for your money, and they are still discs, even more fragille than regular DVD and CD.

Instead of trying to convince us on spending money on movies and players we already own, to replace them with a new format that most of us really dont need, they should pursue in providing even better TV and players for regular DVD... but their goal is for you to spend money again for the same stuff, and again in ten years when another new format comes out.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 18 Mar 2007 @ 2:40

3118.3.2007 6:45

Originally posted by ZIppyDSM:
Bobby blu
Cant argue there its going tot take 3 years for new formats to get anywhere.



rihgt682
using gay as a diss is gay you know....anyway its not the PS3 curing canser but the internet :P
ow so i guess you're gay?

3220.3.2007 21:31

Originally posted by duckNrun:
blah blah blah blah blah blah...

I dont need any of it. Happy with what I got and I am not buying into this fake 'consume or die' culture.

Three releases of the same bloody movie over x years (on dvd alone) each time being told I NEED this new updated version with all the new features and extras.. Yeah it MAY look better under certain circumstances but I'll be darned if I am going to rebuy 900 movies just because the people selling them tell me I need to if I want to continue to enjoy them.
duckNrun has a point... how many times are you willing to repurchase the same movie?... HD-DVD and Blu-ray together only reach 1% of sales in US alone, and most countries around the world don't even offer HD-DVD and Blu-ray movies and players, the fact is that more than 99% of consumers worldwide don't care about HD-DVD and Blu-ray.

Not considering that both HD-DVD and Blu-ray movies and players are darn expensive, the reality is that the vast mayority of consumers are happy with regular DVD, which would rather spend in Widescreen LCD TVs and regular DVD players that could improve the quality of viewing their movies, not in re-purchasing movies in a new format, and in new equipment to view them.

I know that they are Blu-ray and HD-DVD supporters, but honestly they are more important things to spend your money... paying rent, car, food, clothes, medicines, saving for your children's tuition or a new house... after all, they are just darn movies!
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 20 Mar 2007 @ 21:33

3321.3.2007 1:59

inline
MMm no I like girls to much,I am jsut strange and odd,that by itself drives them off :P

3425.3.2007 9:19
silverarm
Inactive

Amen ematrix, I don't want to have ta shell out more money toward a different format, AGAIN!. I've already replaced one movie collection from VHS to DVD discs, players, and all. If they must, I hope they at least make it a slow smooth transition, otherwise they can stick BD and HD where the sun don't shine! There's plenty of other things I can do with my money besides pay them for a pretty picture. Hell!, If I want BD or HD, I'll just eat a big bag of shrooms 30 minutes before viewing DVD. ;)

3525.3.2007 9:45

ematrix
thats why that wotn to mak it illegal to update your bought videos you have to buy new or go to jail,god forbid you put vynil to tape to!

this licensing tactics are a scam,its the same BS they use for Computer games OMG you may not put you 5 CD game on a DVD for better installing OMG the world is ending we should making money on playing the game too!!

365.7.2007 12:15

I am a computer animator and wanted to add my 2 cents about the animation industry and HD. For the past 15 years, all animated movies were produced beyond standard television res of 640 x 480. Animation studios always create their films at a higher resolution, even higher than HD. So my point here is that you will be sold the exact same animation movie that you bought on DVD for HD. When I create my animations I create higher than 1920 x 1080 and then burn to DVD and it is higher than HD quality, not noticeably different since tv can't output higher than HD.

Even for movies that weren't filmed in HD can be converted to HD by rescanning the original cells to a higher resolution. The effects companies while working on DVD movies are creating their effects in HD for future formats. Since they don;t want to recreate effects for an HD version.

375.7.2007 12:26

Originally posted by c1c:
When I create my animations I create higher than 1920 x 1080 and then burn to DVD and it is higher than HD quality
When you have a source that's HD or higher resolution and you burn to DVD you decrease the resolution to 640 x 480. In other words you lose the HD quality when you burn to DVD because you lose resolution and detail. You can never have HD or higher quality on a DVD because the maximum spec is 480 lines of resolution.

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