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Analyst believes movie studios will be deciding factor in console war

Written by Andre Yoskowitz (Google+) @ 08 May 2007 19:31 User comments (7)

Analyst believes movie studios will be deciding factor in console war Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter believes that the next gen console war will not be won by games such as Final Fantasy XIII or MGS4, but rather by exclusive movie titles like Casino Royale.
Pachter is quoted from a 207-page industry report, saying “Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios.”

“Should the studios embrace Sony's Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba's HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come,”
clarified Pachter.

Pachter goes on to speak about how he feels the console race will play out in the next few years. He belives Microsoft will hold the market until 2008, when Nintendo will take a short lead, and then fall into an even market share by the end of the year.

“Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36 percent of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34 percent and Microsoft finishing third at 30 percent. We believe that this is essentially a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits,”
Pachter concluded.

Be noted that the report is only for the European and North American markets, as the Xbox 360 has tiny market share in Japan. “These estimates do not include market shares in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Nintendo (51 percent through 2011) and Sony (44 percent),” Pachter added.

Source:
DailyTech

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7 user comments

18.5.2007 23:05

Quote:
“Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36 percent of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34 percent and Microsoft finishing third at 30 percent.
This maybe what happens at the end of the day but i would like to see the Wii come up on top just cause i want to see how Sony handles it.

29.5.2007 4:40
fgamer
Inactive

These analyst just don't know what their talking about, I still believe Nintendo will be number one followed by Microsoft then Sony coming in last...and that's my educated guest. I just don't see how you can honestly say the movie studios will decide who the winner is! The movie studios has no importance to us gamers, we just want good games to play on our gaming systems not a movie to play on our gaming systems. That's crazy, most people aren't going to be buying Blu-ray because their still watching regular DVD's. Just because HD DVD and Blu-ray DVD movies are available don't mean people are ready to welcome it just yet so that puts his prediction to a shamefull rest. I just don't see how Michael Pachter could possibly try to equate the two together, it's just a rediculous hypothesis he's produced.

39.5.2007 6:35
duckNrun
Inactive

I fully disagree with this knucklehead and wonder if he is a gamer-- or just a player (lol).

While it IS true that a FEW people who bought the PS3 were doing so in an effort to purchase a lower priced home BD system it is disputable whether MOST gamers will buy the system merely as a venue to watch movies.

All one has to do is look to the forums of major sites and you will see people debating the quality of the game graphics, the quality of the game software, the quality of the game experience... and the occasional post about watching a movie.

It's actually funny because based upon the people who will decide the outcome of the ps3 and BD vs HD DVD the talk is the exact opposite of this analyst's theory. Most people are talking about how the consoles will determine the winner in HD not how HD will determine the winner in the consoles. Which just goes to show how far off the mark this one guy is.

Makes me wonder if he needed to dump some stock and so had to stir up the soup to help the prices raise a bit before he sells lol

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 09 May 2007 @ 6:36

49.5.2007 11:17

at the end in 2011 the wii and ps3* will be close with the X-box 360 trailing behind

Sony by the 4th quarter of 2007 have a Price cut and have some success with Home(online) and Blu-ray overall sales

59.5.2007 13:04

Just so everyone knows, this analyst's report was 207 pages. Their job isn't as easy as you may think.
You can't just make a claim and not back it up, and these guys are paid to back it up extensively. The process isn't as trivial as some of you are suggesting.
Gamespot has some more of the report:
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6170234.html

it's a good read, and maybe it will show you that this analyst isn't as dumb as you think.

69.5.2007 14:11

uummm ya all thos crap movie to game titles really push sales......

I can see how they pad sales then get flushed back into the used game market but beyond that I don't see any meat just padding.......

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 09 May 2007 @ 14:12

714.5.2007 6:38

oofRome, thanks for the read, plenty of good info there...

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