AfterDawn: Tech news

HD DVD still in the race say analysts

Written by Rich Fiscus (Google+) @ 24 Oct 2007 11:02 User comments (14)

HD DVD still in the race say analysts Despite being outsold nearly 2 to 1 by Blu-ray in the first three quarters of this year, some analysts expect HD DVD to make a strong finish in the fourth quarter. They point to sales records set by the HD DVD release of Transformers by Paramount Pictures.
Earlier this year another HD DVD release, 300, generated a lot of buzz until it was released on Blu-ray and the HD DVD numbers were quickly eclipsed. Ironically, until August Paramount also released movies in both formats, which could conceivably have dealt yet another blow to HD DVD if they hadn't decided to release on HD DVD exclusively.

Still, a single title can't determine the success of an entire format, and this holiday season may be a turning point for either one. Besides competition for standalone player sales, the success or failure of Sony's PS3 will also have some effect since it doubles as a Blu-ray player.

"It's going to be 2008 before the dust will really starts to settle. For now, its like watching a yacht race," said Gerry Kaufhold, an analyst with the In-Stat research firm.

Source: Reuters

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14 user comments

124.10.2007 11:44

This format war is pathetic. The biggest losers are going to be the consumers that jumped and bought the losing format. I'm not going to be one of them.

Knowing which format is the better, more stable format is irrelevant at this point. Its all marketing and numbers now. To much confusion surrounds the debate and the facts seem skewed. I just hope the better format wins.

Beta was better than VHS. VHS won. Will we repeat our past.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 24 Oct 2007 @ 11:46

224.10.2007 13:05

I disagree - the "war" has brought down player prices WAYYYY faster than if there were only 1 format. Consumers win when you can get players for both formats and still spend much less than a 1st gen B/R device.

324.10.2007 13:30

Also that "vhs-thing" won't be happening...there will be inexpensive players that can play both HD-dvd and blu-ray in realtively short time.

424.10.2007 13:41
hughjars
Inactive

That might be true yussef but on the otherhand if the inexpensive HD DVD takes off as it may well (and/or Warner go HD DVD exclusive like Viacome/Paramount did) and push Blu-ray to become the PS3 proprietary format some of us believe it may well become then it may be that dual format never gets going either.

It's all so early in this that it's hard to be definitive.
Obviously I have my own view of what the facts as they now stand show us.

It's perfectly true that the 'war' has pushed prices down very rapidly (a year ago Blu-ray supporters scoffed at the idea of a $300 HD DVD player by now and some want to deny that the $200 barrier has been breached.....by a Japanese player too).

We'll soon be seeing a $149 entry-level HD DVD price & by Easter it's perfectly reasonable to expect (as CH-DVD production gets into full swing) that the $100 HD DVD player will arrive by then.

TBH I don't see either dual format players or Blu-ray players getting anywhere near that.
Blu-ray seem stuck at $400 and the dual format players are $900+ IIRC.

Despite a year with many supposed blockbuster movies aimed squarely at that 'PS3 demographic' Sony execs like to refer to HD DVD has not only remained in the game but has come back from a start of the year gap of (at worst) around 75:25 to 55:45 in the begininng of Oct this year.
We've seen the Blu-ray side having to resort to incurring huge costs with a buy-one-get-one-free offer to try and keep Transformers from swinging HD DVD to taking the majority sales (which may or may not have worked in view of how successful those - record - Transformers sales have been).

Of course HD DVD is still in this, we've yet to see those mass-market friendly prices hit and sales volumes really climb thanks to them.

By summer 2008 I expect it's going to be pretty obvious how this is going and it will all to be pretty clear that it's over bar the shouting by this time next year.

......and just in case anyone is still wondering I fully expect the underdog (HD DVD) to take the win in the wider a/v market.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 24 Oct 2007 @ 13:46

524.10.2007 15:51

I hate this war... really... damn Transformers, it made me went out and get an add-on. If not, sigh, i should be watching on the PS3 already. Geez man, hd-dvd players cost too much, only the add-on and the A1 are under $200. As for the $300 models, forget that, it can't do anything else besides watching dvds and hd-dvds. For $300, i expect a build in HDD for home media stuffs... I loathe the A1 b/c it's loading time is really retarded! The add-on is adequate for me, but i'm worrying about it RRoD my X360... Sigh, even though i'm getting the ad-on around $200 (taxes and all) with free Heroes S1 HD-DVD, Transformers HD-DVD and Children of Men HD-DVD (also the five rebate HD-DVDs), i'm still not completely happy about my purchase. Good deal? Yes... but what if my X360 dies, all that stuff is unless until i get a new X360 or a new HD-DVD player (if a new player, then the add-on is useless stuff, unless it's hooked to a PC).

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 07 Nov 2007 @ 23:10

624.10.2007 16:40

Originally posted by MightyOne:
This format war is pathetic. The biggest losers are going to be the consumers that jumped and bought the losing format. I'm not going to be one of them.
That’s why i brought a PS3, If blu-ray lose, i still have a awesome games machine! and will pick up a cheap HD-DVD player if they win

724.10.2007 16:55

I was mad about Transformers too. So we bought the DVD and I watched it on a regular home theater player on a HDTV. It was OK at best. But then I tried it in the PS3 with optical cable going to the home theater for the 5:1, The PS3 upverted it to 1080i and it was AMAZING. After that ALL the movies I watch will be through the PS3. Having a hi-def player is useless with out a HDTV
Just my 2 cents but I'm banking on Blu-ray in fact I dropped $599 on a Blu-ray player...and it plays some amazing games too...just not many available yet...sucks
Im NOT going to buy the add-on, I might consider buying the 360 that has a built in HDDVD them modding my current one.............

824.10.2007 17:43

Originally posted by muccione:
I was mad about Transformers too. So we bought the DVD and I watched it on a regular home theater player on a HDTV. It was OK at best. But then I tried it in the PS3 with optical cable going to the home theater for the 5:1, The PS3 upverted it to 1080i and it was AMAZING. After that ALL the movies I watch will be through the PS3. Having a hi-def player is useless with out a HDTV
Just my 2 cents but I'm banking on Blu-ray in fact I dropped $599 on a Blu-ray player...and it plays some amazing games too...just not many available yet...sucks
Im NOT going to buy the add-on, I might consider buying the 360 that has a built in HDDVD them modding my current one.............
When I first got my LCD hdtv I was amazed at the upscaling capabilities of the dvd upconvert players. I played the same movie on 2 dvd players, one upconvert and the other regular and a huge difference! I will definitely wait for a winner of this crappy 'war' no need to jump on something new when upconvert is good enough for me.

924.10.2007 21:21

Upscaling is not good enough for me... i watched TMNT on dvd using the PS3 and it wasn't that great. Well, the movie sucks, but i was paying attention to QA... Upscaling is not HD!

1024.10.2007 23:50

Definetly the race is not over it will take at least another two years i feel before one of the formats can take a vast lead.

1125.10.2007 12:56
kubapolak
Inactive

That was the most stupid thing ever. Why would they come up with two formats? I would just hope they would come to a compromise and start selling cheap dual players.

1225.10.2007 19:13

Originally posted by kubapolak:
That was the most stupid thing ever. Why would they come up with two formats? I would just hope they would come to a compromise and start selling cheap dual players.
They did not come up with two formats...Two competing companies did..Sony with the blu-ray and ????? with the HD DVD To the victor gets the spoils...and the 25% jump in net sales

1325.10.2007 22:54
kubapolak
Inactive

Quote:
Originally posted by kubapolak:
That was the most stupid thing ever. Why would they come up with two formats? I would just hope they would come to a compromise and start selling cheap dual players.
They did not come up with two formats...Two competing companies did..Sony with the blu-ray and ????? with the HD DVD To the victor gets the spoils...and the 25% jump in net sales
Yes, that is what I meant to say about the two companies, and I would wish to only see one format.
Thanks for the input.

147.11.2007 23:08

@Gnawnivek
Watch the language - let's keep it clean. Post edited.




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