AfterDawn: Tech news

Analysts forecast a Blu-ray victory for next year... Probably

Written by Rich Fiscus (Google+) @ 21 Dec 2007 18:12 User comments (53)

Analysts forecast a Blu-ray victory for next year... Probably Yet another group of industry analysts is predicting that next year will almost certainly see a single dominant HD disc format emerge next year. Unlike recent speculation from Screen Digest, however, the report from Understanding and Solutions includes predicting which side it will be. In their analysts' estimation Blu-ray will emerge as the victor in 2008.
“Blu-ray and HD DVD player prices have been falling since the summer, culminating in Toshiba’s loss-leading sub-$100 HD DVD player, available in the U.S. last month for a Limited time,” said Jeremy Wills, an Understanding and Solutions consultant. “Price reductions in the U.S. have continued into December, with Blu-ray players dropping below $300 for the first time and HD DVD players below $200.”

“Crucially,” added Wills, “Blu-ray benefits from stronger Hollywood studio support and represents a greater proportion of high-definition disc production volumes and disc sales. To date, Paramount’s move to sole support of HD DVD has failed to turn the market, despite the HD DVD exclusivity of key titles Transformers and Shrek the Third. Blu-ray still represented more than 70% of high-definition video sales in the U.S. during the week Transformers was released on HD DVD.”

Not everyone is so sure that the only issue is player price, which is where the disconnect between Screen Digest's prediction of 'one side or the other' and Understanding and Solutions' 'almost certainly Blu-ray' come in. Already this year the dynamic between the two formats was drastically altered when Paramount, originally a HD DVD supporter but eventually format neutral, threw their weight behind HD DVD, reportedly in exchange for millions of dollars in "incentives."

Most analysts seem to agree that if any studio were to drop support for either format it could finally signal the real end to the format war.

Source: Video Business

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53 user comments

121.12.2007 23:50
camaro17
Inactive

yeah i knew they were gonna have to admit blu-ray is gonna win.

221.12.2007 23:54

blah blah blah all over again

321.12.2007 23:59
camaro17
Inactive

Originally posted by sk8flawzz:
blah blah blah all over again
lol, yeah man, i recall a news feed a couple of months ago with analysts predicting both format to be around till 2011, do you remember that?

Peace

422.12.2007 0:01

Regular dvd quailty is good enough for me.

522.12.2007 0:02

Quote:
Originally posted by sk8flawzz:
blah blah blah all over again
lol, yeah man, i recall a news feed a couple of months ago with analysts predicting both format to be around till 2011, do you remember that?

Peace
I think I do, but most, no wait ALL of what these analysts say I don't really believe or remember.
I want one format (either) in the end, but a stalemate for a few years ought to be great for us

622.12.2007 0:10

Suck a di*k "analysts"

Mind the key four letters in that word "Anal"............as in taken up the...

I wish I had a job as an 'guesser'. Kinda like the frakkin' weatherman. The ONLY job in the world where you can be wrong 95% of the time and still retain your job.

3 words.................F off 'anal'ysts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


DONE!

722.12.2007 0:29

One more thing; I totally welcome having two formats. I mean, who gives a shizzy anyway? Does a consume REALLY care if their DVD player plays both formats. It's not like the price is any different. Competition means lower prices and better quality...........plain and simple. So long as is doesn't adversely affect me. Because frankly .............. I'm all that matters..........HA HA just kidding.

822.12.2007 0:35

Originally posted by area_51:
Regular dvd quality is good enough for me.
Word, who really gives a sh1t anyway, I mean in a few years blu-ray and hd-dvd are gonna be obsolete anyways..just like tapes , cd's came after that , now is mp3,itunes,ogg, the list goes on.. progress is inevitable.. If tupac or metallica made 8 tracks I would buy em.. all I care about is what is on them regardless of what they are on..

922.12.2007 4:53
nobrainer
Inactive

DVD is the winner because HD-DVD and Blu-Ray sales are pittyful, and will take 5+ years to gain momentum by that time hopefully solid state will be the format.

i wish these MPAA PR fools would stop predicting the rise of their chosen format of orwellian propertarian DRM lock out choice.

Blu-Ray = anti consumer DRM lock down with added price fixing region codes!

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 22 Dec 2007 @ 8:26

1022.12.2007 7:08
hughjars
Inactive

They should have waited for all of the Q4 numbers to come in.

In a few weeks we'll see Warner speaking at the HD DVD conference at CES.

There are going to be some analysts and forecasters with a lot of egg on their faces!

LMAO.

They should have seen this first before making such big claims -

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/12241.cfm

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 22 Dec 2007 @ 7:10

1122.12.2007 9:34

Originally posted by nobrainer:
DVD is the winner because HD-DVD and Blu-Ray sales are pittyful, and will take 5+ years to gain momentum by that time hopefully solid state will be the format.

i wish these MPAA PR fools would stop predicting the rise of their chosen format of orwellian propertarian DRM lock out choice.

Blu-Ray = anti consumer DRM lock down with added price fixing region codes!
the DRM is no worse than HDVD at this time tis been cracked and BD+ the great evil DRM has been sold off to macrovision which garrents it bing breakable and mroe consumer friendly since sony has step away from it.

hughjars
http://www.engadget.com/2007/12/07/warner-could-join-blu-ray/

if they go exclusive to one format it could be a sign of the end.

With BR losing its teeth and HDVD gaining some grit 51GB and region coding there is no longer a diffrance in the formats the war is over they cloned themselves to much now all that matters is one stepping away from the consumer market so that the one thats left can replace DVD and the price war on that should be nice, 80-200$ players and no more than 25 a movie they can do it they just refuse to at this point in time.

1222.12.2007 9:49

Originally posted by hughjars:
They should have waited for all of the Q4 numbers to come in.

In a few weeks we'll see Warner speaking at the HD DVD conference at CES.

There are going to be some analysts and forecasters with a lot of egg on their faces!

LMAO.

They should have seen this first before making such big claims -

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/12241.cfm



Hughjars,

You should check your sources before you use them as fact. The site you listed states "Blockbusters such as 'The Bourne Ultimatum' and 'Harry Potter and the Order of the Pheonix' on HD DVD are reversing a long running trend by outselling their Blu-ray equivalents."

The Bourne Ultimatum wasn't even released on bluray. Which is why HDDVD is beating it LOL.

Bluray will win the format war!!!

1322.12.2007 9:54
hughjars
Inactive

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
the DRM is no worse than HDVD at this time
- No that's not correct Zippy.

AACS has been cracked twice now (and the word is that with the 2nd crack it has led to them understanding the hows & whys and it can only get easier every time from now on).

Both HD DVD & Blu-ray use AACS and because of this there a total of about 600 high def of both flavours movies available on the net.

BD+ is unique to Blu-ray - and they use a hardware based watermarking system.

Contrary to the rumours has not been cracked & neither has the watermarking.
We keep hearing a crack is imminent but it has yet to happen.

We do not know yet (cos it hasn't been broken) what the result will be of any changes to BD+ if the 1st version is broken - but bearing in mind it has been specifically designed from the outset as a variable security system intended to be changed if it ever is broken it also means we do not know whether breaking it will lead to easier future breask or whether things go right back to square 1.

But it's simply not true to say both HD DVD and Blu-ray have equal DRM and that that this DRM has been broken.

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
With BR losing its teeth and HDVD gaining some grit 51GB and region coding there is no longer a diffrance in the formats
- Zippy mate where are you getting this idea that HD DVD is region coded?

It is not.

The only region coding that applies is to the SD DVD side of it (although there is now a hack out for some of the HD DVD players on that one).

HD DVD itself is not region coded and has never been coded.

In theory they could introduce it but that would require industry agreement that is highly unlikely.
Why would they bother with it now when it is clear that the lack of region coding is a major HD DVD plus point?
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 22 Dec 2007 @ 9:55

1422.12.2007 9:59
vinny13
Inactive

Lol I just went to my local Wal-Mart and they had one Giant Blu-Ray stand with a whole bunch of Blu-Ray movies and no more then 10 HD-DVDs on it. I guess we know what my Wal-Mart prefers :P

1522.12.2007 10:03
hughjars
Inactive

Originally posted by roger32:
You should check your sources before you use them as fact. The site you listed states "Blockbusters such as 'The Bourne Ultimatum' and 'Harry Potter and the Order of the Pheonix' on HD DVD are reversing a long running trend by outselling their Blu-ray equivalents."

The Bourne Ultimatum wasn't even released on bluray. Which is why HDDVD is beating it LOL.
- You should learn to read properly.

The article does not at any point claim that Bourne (a Universal HD DVD release only) is out on anything other than HD DVD.

Originally posted by roger32:
Bluray will win the format war!!!
- Deny the truth all you like but like I said weeks ago, if Sony's head Blu-ray BS'er Stringer is prepared to publicly say he sees a stalemate in this 'war' then you can bet it's much worse than that for Blu-ray
(which is what we're going to be seeing very soon).

Warner sid they were going to be watching Q4 sales very closely.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was a like-for-like release on both formats and it's looking highly likely that despite the approx 10:1+ lead in players that Bu-ray has they have either lost to HD DVD or only just barely beaten HD DVD.

That's the sort of thing that moves studios - especially when they know even cheaper HD DVD players are only a few months away.

PS3 simply doesn't sell enough movies.

But you continue in your day-dream all you like.

By mid 2008 this will all be over and the fanclub will have to content themselves with Blu-ray being little more than the PS3's proprietary format with a little standalone & PC burner activity tacked on.

1622.12.2007 10:28

Quote:
Originally posted by roger32:
You should check your sources before you use them as fact. The site you listed states "Blockbusters such as 'The Bourne Ultimatum' and 'Harry Potter and the Order of the Pheonix' on HD DVD are reversing a long running trend by outselling their Blu-ray equivalents."

The Bourne Ultimatum wasn't even released on bluray. Which is why HDDVD is beating it LOL.
- You should learn to read properly.

The article does not at any point claim that Bourne (a Universal HD DVD release only) is out on anything other than HD DVD.

Originally posted by roger32:
Bluray will win the format war!!!
- Deny the truth all you like but like I said weeks ago, if Sony's head Blu-ray BS'er Stringer is prepared to publicly say he sees a stalemate in this 'war' then you can bet it's much worse than that for Blu-ray
(which is what we're going to be seeing very soon).

Warner sid they were going to be watching Q4 sales very closely.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was a like-for-like release on both formats and it's looking highly likely that despite the approx 10:1+ lead in players that Bu-ray has they have either lost to HD DVD or only just barely beaten HD DVD.

That's the sort of thing that moves studios - especially when they know even cheaper HD DVD players are only a few months away.

PS3 simply doesn't sell enough movies.

But you continue in your day-dream all you like.

By mid 2008 this will all be over and the fanclub will have to content themselves with Blu-ray being little more than the PS3's proprietary format with a little standalone & PC burner activity tacked on.
The only reason why this "war" is happening in the first place is because Microsoft has allowed it to continue. The fact that they had to pay around 150 million for two studios to switch to their format is enough evidence that the HDDVD format is on its way out. An interesting fact that you should think about is that Microsoft doesn't even care if the HDDVD format wins this is clear in their lack of incorporating the format into their consoles. The PS3 is a really good push for the Bluray format and will likely help the format overtake HDDVD in 2008.

The other point you make in regard to the cost of HDDVD players is mute. It has already been stated that the cost of high definition players is not as important to retailers as the cost of HDDVD players already has reached $100 with little change in the HDDVD sales.

As for your argument regarding the Harry Potter movie, do you really think that that one movie is going to change the outcome of the war? Don't forget that Bluray has DISNEY and that alone is enough to end this war once and for all. Imagine if Disney re-released all of their older movies remastered.

Your just in denial because you probably invested several hundred dollars in your player and don't want to see it become obsolete. I understand your feelings, but blame it on MICROSOFT for extending this out longer than it had to just so that they can have more time to work on their HD movie download service with their XBox Live.

Even if Microsoft perfects an HD movie download service, people still prefer to have hard copies of their movies.

As I said earlier, Bluray will win.

1722.12.2007 11:11
vinny13
Inactive

Why would Warner switch to HD-DVD if it's been selling less then Blu-Ray the entire year or so? Like, where does that come in? Common sense is to go with the better selling product, with more players. It doesn't matter that HD-DVD has BS features that no one cares about. I'd cry if Warner switched to Blu-Ray at whatever in January. Even if the production costs are more expensive, the sales so far have made up for them seeing that they've held about 70% average of sales every week.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 22 Dec 2007 @ 11:15

1822.12.2007 11:24

Originally posted by roger32:
The other point you make in regard to the cost of HDDVD players is mute. It has already been stated that the cost of high definition players is not as important to retailers as the cost of HDDVD players already has reached $100 with little change in the HDDVD sales.

As for your argument regarding the Harry Potter movie, do you really think that that one movie is going to change the outcome of the war? Don't forget that Bluray has DISNEY and that alone is enough to end this war once and for all. Imagine if Disney re-released all of their older movies remastered.
Countless members has been telling him this but he just don't get it cheap players does nothing if your media cost more than BD & don't have the majority share of the Big studio's.I'm pretty sure a lot of people going to be upset when they unwrap there 99 dollar HD-DVD player & see that they can't get BD movies or vice verse & HD-DVD movie costing more than BD.High return value after christmas

EX:

300[Widescreen Dubbed Subtitle AC3] - HD-DVD List Price:
$39.99 Our Price:Our Price:$34.99

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?...duct&id=1653420

300[Widescreen Dubbed Subtitle AC3] - Blu-ray DiscList Price:
$34.99 Our Price:$29.99

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?...duct&id=1653420

1922.12.2007 11:43

Quitters never win. Winners never quit. Those that never win and never quit are stupid. The score is 52 to 0.

2022.12.2007 12:22
hughjars
Inactive

Typical Blu-ray/PS3 fanclub behaviour.

Snipe with one ill-informed comment; get shot down; ignore that and move on to try and cast up another ill-informed comment.

Too easy.

S'funny how no-one is now predicting the once claimed 'easy' win for Blu-ray.

But don't let that interrupt your worship.

The Michael Bay line is just laughable; we don't have the necessary bandwidth & speed of connection (and won't have anything like enough of them in time) to affect this particular disc battle.

The comment about the wave of coming $100 HD DVD players is not moot (mute!? lol).

We've only seen the HD A2 (gen 2) player sold as a season special at that price (and they sold all they had).

That's not the same as a player which is gen 3 and at a regular $100 price.

The point about the Harry Potter film is that it was exactly that kind of like-for-like release that Warner are looking at
(and more to the point it's exactly the sort of thing that they said they were going to be looking at).

Disney alone is not enough (jeez is that the level of desperate delusion the Blu-ray.com clan have talked themselves into!?).

But if you don't know Disney actively supported the new 51gb TL HD DVD when it went through the DVD Forum and was recently approved.
(instead of the usual abstention the BDA members of the DVD Forum do these days).
What will the excuse be when Disney go neutral, huh?

The truth is that despite the wholly expected boost PS3 gave Blu-ray it has been a rather weak boost; as HD DVD standalone numbers grow so too the gap closes.
The problem is that Blu-ray has to see a disproportionate number of PS3s shifted and they aren't selling enough of them and those they do sell don't shift enough movies.

(and we already know Blu-ray is an expensive pain in the a$$ to work with thanks to Paramount's comments)

I see the usual lie has been dragged out & dropped into this (Jeez talk about lame & desperate reaching) to whine that HD DVD movies are expensive compared to Blu-ray.
LMAO

Here's the first page of HD DVD discs using the search of Amazon USA, it's pretty typical.
It is as good as anything to expose the typical & usual Blu-ray.com lie about HD DVD disc pricing.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_i_0?ie...20dvd%2Ci%3Advd

3 box sets and then 6 x $19.95; 2 x $24.95.

The Blu-ray search turns this up -

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_d/103-...eywords=blu-ray

4 boxsets and 1 x $15.95; 1 x $22.95; then 4 x $23.95; then 1 x $24.95 & 1 x $29.95.

(Just cos Best Buy can't compete. :P )

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 22 Dec 2007 @ 12:32

2122.12.2007 13:11

We could really go at this all day. The bottom line is that there are far more PS3 and standalone Bluray players in the market than there are HDDVD players. Furthermore, there are presently more movies out in the Bluray format and as a whole they are outselling HDDVD titles. Show me one creditable source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war. I really think that anything that anyone can say is speculation at this point.

Bluray will win the war!!!

Oh, by the way, I really could care less if there is a winner to the format war. I have a PS3 and even if HDDVD wins I still can play my PS3 games in HD and I can just go and pick up a $100 player for HDDVD titles. You on the other hand have much more invested in this than I do.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 22 Dec 2007 @ 13:16

2222.12.2007 14:39
hughjars
Inactive

Originally posted by roger32:
The bottom line is that there are far more PS3 and standalone Bluray players in the market than there are HDDVD players.
- No, that's only part of the actual 'bottom line'.

The bit the PS3/Blu-ray fanclub love to leave out is how poor the sales lead that Blu-ray has had is compared to those so few HD DVD players.

That's why attachment rates do matter & why this is just a matter of time; as HD DVD sells more and more the owners buy far more movies.

Originally posted by roger32:
Furthermore, there are presently more movies out in the Bluray format
- No, that's plain wrong.

Thanks to HD DVD being region free every time you can source movies from anywhere and it means there are in fact more HD DVD movies available and there are more exclusive HD DVD movies available too.

Originally posted by roger32:
and as a whole they are outselling HDDVD titles.
- No-one has disputed that.

The PS3 generated a wholly expected short-term lead. The only surprise was how poor that lead was and how quickly it is being closed down.

The point is that the gap has closed and is going to be closing still further.

Originally posted by roger32:
Show me one creditable source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war.
- LMAO, so a handful of old (and now very out-of -date) forecasts are your last hope then?

As I said before, we've gone from just about everyone starting this by writing off HD DVD as the underdog and saying Blu-ray would win easily to comments about stalemate and no clear winner.

Give it time.
Having pulled back away from their early 'easy win' forecasts and pondering over their non-committal current 'stalemate' forecasts (which even Sony top Blu-ray BS'er Stringer agrees with - so you know it's really much worse) it's only a matter of time until the reality of $100 HD DVD has them all changing their tune, again.

Originally posted by roger32:
I really think that anything that anyone can say is speculation at this point.
- Mine might be speculation, but at least it's informed by events & actual reality.

Those Chinese brands are a fact, they are coming.
'HD DVD China' is the same as 'our' HD DVD except for a mere firmware & a case logo.

The mainstream a/v mass-market is also far larger than the game console market
(which PS3 has not done especially well in either, being stuck firmly in 3rd place, despite slightly improved sales in the last month or so).

Originally posted by roger32:
Bluray will win the war!!!
- Dream on.

Blu-ray cannot now actually win.

It can co-exist but it will not actually win, not without Universal & Viacom/Paramount et al.

Originally posted by roger32:
You on the other hand have much more invested in this than I do.
- Yeah, whatever. Maybe it's a lot to you, it isn't to me.

My HD A/EP35 - which will always play my collection of HD DVDs & DVDs or even CDs if I choose - was about 1/2 the price of a PS3.

So perhaps not such a big "investment" (LMAO) or a lot of cash afterall.

2322.12.2007 14:59
varnull
Inactive

The more times I see these boring "Analysts predict" topics.. the more my eyes settle on the Anal part...

People get paid for this crap??

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 22 Dec 2007 @ 15:00

2422.12.2007 15:13

Originally posted by hughjars:
It is as good as anything to expose the typical & usual Blu-ray.com lie about HD DVD disc pricing.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_i_0?ie...20dvd%2Ci%3Advd

3 box sets and then 6 x $19.95; 2 x $24.95.

The Blu-ray search turns this up -

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_d/103-...eywords=blu-ray

4 boxsets and 1 x $15.95; 1 x $22.95; then 4 x $23.95; then 1 x $24.95 & 1 x $29.95.

(Just cos Best Buy can't compete.
As always i got to come on here & cleanup the red ants fud thats been spread.

Report: Best Buy Sells Most Blu-ray, HD DVD Titles

According to a new research report, Best Buy is America's high-def disc leader, outselling both Wal-Mart and Amazon.com by what's being described as "a wide margin.".

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/H...DVD_Titles/1045

Amazon don't sell as many HD format discs as Best buy so wheres your PR spin on this? Once again you ranting & raving & have no clue what you talking about.

2522.12.2007 15:29

looks like blu ray might win tho figuring alot of movies are blu ray only but hopefully they produce movies in both formats so my hd dvd player isnt a waste of space as well.

2622.12.2007 18:01

Just more and more predictions. I'm so sick of every other week hearing (reading, actually) the new slew of "predictions" which is just a fancy way to say guesses

2722.12.2007 18:02
evz
Inactive

Quote:
Originally posted by hughjars:
It is as good as anything to expose the typical & usual Blu-ray.com lie about HD DVD disc pricing.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_i_0?ie...20dvd%2Ci%3Advd

3 box sets and then 6 x $19.95; 2 x $24.95.

The Blu-ray search turns this up -

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_d/103-...eywords=blu-ray

4 boxsets and 1 x $15.95; 1 x $22.95; then 4 x $23.95; then 1 x $24.95 & 1 x $29.95.

(Just cos Best Buy can't compete.
As always i got to come on here & cleanup the red ants fud thats been spread.

Report: Best Buy Sells Most Blu-ray, HD DVD Titles

According to a new research report, Best Buy is America's high-def disc leader, outselling both Wal-Mart and Amazon.com by what's being described as "a wide margin.".

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/H...DVD_Titles/1045

Amazon don't sell as many HD format discs as Best buy so wheres your PR spin on this? Once again you ranting & raving & have no clue what you talking about.
I totally agree. What idiot is gonna order his HD discs online(even if he saves a few bucks) and wait for like a week for them to show up.

It's just plain idiocracy!!!

2822.12.2007 18:07
vinny13
Inactive

Why are HD-DVDs usually $5-$10 more then Blu-Ray movies?

2922.12.2007 18:30

evz
translation: "OMG everyone stop buying stuff on line you have to wait for it!!!"

*sigh*

vinny13
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_i_0?ie...20DVD%2Ci%3Advd
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_i_0?ie...20ray%2Ci%3Advd

and that price difference is only in your head they average 20-24 a pop with a few 25-30 ones, its all about pricing schemes,stock and poulatiry.

3022.12.2007 19:32
hughjars
Inactive

It's the last gasp of an exhausted and failed viral campaign Zippy.

We've a short couple of weeks to go until the obvious is made plain to even the most obstinate.

That's all this is.

Fell sorry for those they led up the garden path with their lies, PR and over-priced & under-spec'd cr@p.

3122.12.2007 19:34

Quote:
Originally posted by roger32:
The bottom line is that there are far more PS3 and standalone Bluray players in the market than there are HDDVD players.
- No, that's only part of the actual 'bottom line'.

The bit the PS3/Blu-ray fanclub love to leave out is how poor the sales lead that Blu-ray has had is compared to those so few HD DVD players.

That's why attachment rates do matter & why this is just a matter of time; as HD DVD sells more and more the owners buy far more movies.

Originally posted by roger32:
Furthermore, there are presently more movies out in the Bluray format
- No, that's plain wrong.

Thanks to HD DVD being region free every time you can source movies from anywhere and it means there are in fact more HD DVD movies available and there are more exclusive HD DVD movies available too.

Originally posted by roger32:
and as a whole they are outselling HDDVD titles.
- No-one has disputed that.

The PS3 generated a wholly expected short-term lead. The only surprise was how poor that lead was and how quickly it is being closed down.

The point is that the gap has closed and is going to be closing still further.

Originally posted by roger32:
Show me one creditable source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war.
- LMAO, so a handful of old (and now very out-of -date) forecasts are your last hope then?

As I said before, we've gone from just about everyone starting this by writing off HD DVD as the underdog and saying Blu-ray would win easily to comments about stalemate and no clear winner.

Give it time.
Having pulled back away from their early 'easy win' forecasts and pondering over their non-committal current 'stalemate' forecasts (which even Sony top Blu-ray BS'er Stringer agrees with - so you know it's really much worse) it's only a matter of time until the reality of $100 HD DVD has them all changing their tune, again.

Originally posted by roger32:
I really think that anything that anyone can say is speculation at this point.
- Mine might be speculation, but at least it's informed by events & actual reality.

Those Chinese brands are a fact, they are coming.
'HD DVD China' is the same as 'our' HD DVD except for a mere firmware & a case logo.

The mainstream a/v mass-market is also far larger than the game console market
(which PS3 has not done especially well in either, being stuck firmly in 3rd place, despite slightly improved sales in the last month or so).

Originally posted by roger32:
Bluray will win the war!!!
- Dream on.

Blu-ray cannot now actually win.

It can co-exist but it will not actually win, not without Universal & Viacom/Paramount et al.

Originally posted by roger32:
You on the other hand have much more invested in this than I do.
- Yeah, whatever. Maybe it's a lot to you, it isn't to me.

My HD A/EP35 - which will always play my collection of HD DVDs & DVDs or even CDs if I choose - was about 1/2 the price of a PS3.

So perhaps not such a big "investment" (LMAO) or a lot of cash afterall.
I thought that I had finished the conversation apparently you like to ramble. You are using the same sources over and over again. Find some new (credible) data and then talk with me. Everything your mentioning is based on "actual events" and second hand knowledge. You still have not met the challenge that I posed: Show me one credible source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war.

What is your so called "data" that you are basing this prediction on?

Bluray will win the format war!!!!

3222.12.2007 19:37

Originally posted by hughjars:
It's the last gasp of an exhausted and failed viral campaign Zippy.

We've a short couple of weeks to go until the obvious is made plain to even the most obstinate.

That's all this is.

Fell sorry for those they led up the garden path with their lies, PR and over-priced & under-spec'd cr@p.
It is what it is when it is, nothign more nothing less a winner is made when tis won not before, things are going better for BR than HDVD but time will tell who will win.

3322.12.2007 20:03
hughjars
Inactive

Originally posted by roger32:
I thought that I had finished the conversation apparently you like to ramble.
- LMAO

Ooooh that 'rambling' comment really knotted your panties eh?

Hilarious.

Originally posted by roger32:
You are using the same sources over and over again.
- Er, no.

The latest is that the HD DVD version of Harry Potter just outsold the Blu-ray version.

That is exactly the kind of data Warner said they'd be looking to in the Q4 of 2007 results before deciding which way they were going to go.

Originally posted by roger32:
Find some new (credible) data and then talk with me.
- How many new ways can it be spelt out that the disc sales gap is closing and that there are indeed a wave of $100 (that's the regular price, not a season special) Chinese HD DVD players on the way and in numbers?

Originally posted by roger32:
Everything your mentioning is based on "actual events" and second hand knowledge.
- Yeah, actual events and reported (ok so it's therefore 2nd hand but so what, it verifiable fact) like Toshiba signing their licencing deals in 2005 and Microsoft their in Jan 2007.

Originally posted by roger32:
You still have not met the challenge that I posed: Show me one credible source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war.
- ......and I said 1st of all it matters not just now and secondly give it a little time.

I can tell you (tho you choose to skip past it) that you'll not be finding anyone forecasting an easy Blu-ray victory anymore.

Originally posted by roger32:
What is your so called "data" that you are basing this prediction on?
- It's been obvious since it became clear that not only were HD DVD able to get cheaper faster but that HD DVD attachment rates were easily well ahead of Blu-ray's.

Originally posted by roger32:
Bluray will win the format war!!!!
- Enjoy your delusions you really don't have too long left to do so now.

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
things are going better for BR than HDVD
- Things are not Zippy.

Blu-ray's small sales lead is being chewed into mightily, despite at least a 10:1+ advantage in players they simply are not shifting the movies.

Things are going better for HD DVD, the Harry Potter data will have an enormous influence on Warner's decisions in the coming month.

There's no way Blu-ray being outsold on that one is anything but a complete disaster (particularly considering the timing) for Blu-ray.

3422.12.2007 21:03
vinny13
Inactive

Hd-DVD's smaller sales leads to Blu-Ray's victory. It may not be doing as great as it could be, but it's good enough to outsell HD-DVD almost EVERY WEEK THIS YEAR.

3523.12.2007 12:12
hughjars
Inactive

No-one cares about the early sales lead Blu-ray took.

People like Warner said they would wait and see how sales in Q4 of 2007 worked out before making their big decisions.

The fact is that the PS3/Blu-ray strategy has failed.

HD DVD shifts movies in a way Blu-ray does not.

It's just a matter of time now until the $100 regularly priced (not limited season special) HD DVD players arrive and make off with the mass-market in a way the PS3 game consol can never do.

3623.12.2007 21:43
vinny13
Inactive

Originally posted by hughjars:
No-one cares about the early sales lead Blu-ray took.

People like Warner said they would wait and see how sales in Q4 of 2007 worked out before making their big decisions.

The fact is that the PS3/Blu-ray strategy has failed.

HD DVD shifts movies in a way Blu-ray does not.

It's just a matter of time now until the $100 regularly priced (not limited season special) HD DVD players arrive and make off with the mass-market in a way the PS3 game consol can never do.
Oh yes. They are surely moving their movies in a way that Blu-Ray just cannot compete with. Selling less is something Blu-Ray cannot do :/

3728.12.2007 18:33

I will see this when it happens at the moment we still have both formats and i feel when one dies is the time that i will choose to buy the one that survives and if this takes a few years i will wait. It will be worth it.

3831.12.2007 6:11

B.S!, my prediction: they both will come out even, mark my words. this same "format war" occurred with DVD+R/-R, what happened? dvd writers ended up writing to both formats, the obvious reasons being that they ultimately read the same way and both are the same fricken size! I don't understand why people are still debating over which format will win. THERE ARE ALREADY PLAYERS THAT PLAY BOTH FORMATS. Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change?

3931.12.2007 7:00
nobrainer
Inactive

Originally posted by smcrzyguy:
Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change?
the MPAA backed format is Blu-Ray or DRM-Ray if you want to be technical and they care that this orwellian, anti consumer format wins the war on piracy.

download via bit torrent and watch this creative commons FREE LEGAL movie(look on the left and lick xvid, dvd, ipod ect for dif versions):

http://www.stealthisfilm.com/Part2/

"Intellectual Property is the oil of the 21st century" - this quote by Mark Getty, chairman of Getty Images, one of the world's largest Intellectual Proprietors, offers a unique perspective on the current conflicts around copyrights, patents and trademarks.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 31 Dec 2007 @ 7:01

404.1.2008 11:52
atomicxl
Inactive

Quote:
Originally posted by evz:
What idiot is gonna order his HD discs online(even if he saves a few bucks) and wait for like a week for them to show up.

It's just plain idiocracy!!!
Thats silly logic. You could apply that logic to any and everything that an online retailer sells. Its like you think online retailing is idiocracy... despite the success of sites like Amazon.com and online storefronts for brick and mortar retailers continually having increasing revenue while brick and mortar stores have seen decreasing for like the past 5 years.

People like to save money. Some value that over immediacy. You may not agree with it, but it is reality. Amazon.com is a very successful online store... and its merely one of the hundreds of successful stores.

415.1.2008 15:51

Hello All,

Yet another serious blow to the HDDVD format.
Hughjars wrote:

Quote:
Warner sid they were going to be watching Q4 sales very closely.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was a like-for-like release on both formats and it's looking highly likely that despite the approx 10:1+ lead in players that Bu-ray has they have either lost to HD DVD or only just barely beaten HD DVD.

That's the sort of thing that moves studios - especially when they know even cheaper HD DVD players are only a few months away.


Warner has decided to back Bluray exclusively. Hughjars, maybe you should rethink which side you are on. You can have all the cheap Chinese players that you want, without movies to play on the player it is pointless.

Bluray will win!!!

425.1.2008 15:59

smcrzyguy
Yes and no, there were only +R -R writers the spec was readable on most if not all DVD drives, this is diffrent much more like beta v VHS.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 05 Jan 2008 @ 15:59

435.1.2008 17:53
vinny13
Inactive

Quote:
Originally posted by smcrzyguy:
Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change?
the MPAA backed format is Blu-Ray or DRM-Ray if you want to be technical and they care that this orwellian, anti consumer format wins the war on piracy.

download via bit torrent and watch this creative commons FREE LEGAL movie(look on the left and lick xvid, dvd, ipod ect for dif versions):

http://www.stealthisfilm.com/Part2/

"Intellectual Property is the oil of the 21st century" - this quote by Mark Getty, chairman of Getty Images, one of the world's largest Intellectual Proprietors, offers a unique perspective on the current conflicts around copyrights, patents and trademarks.
And just as the movie quotes many times, piracy cannot be stopped or even controlled for that matter. So what are you worried about?

445.1.2008 17:59

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by smcrzyguy:
Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change?
the MPAA backed format is Blu-Ray or DRM-Ray if you want to be technical and they care that this orwellian, anti consumer format wins the war on piracy.

download via bit torrent and watch this creative commons FREE LEGAL movie(look on the left and lick xvid, dvd, ipod ect for dif versions):

http://www.stealthisfilm.com/Part2/

"Intellectual Property is the oil of the 21st century" - this quote by Mark Getty, chairman of Getty Images, one of the world's largest Intellectual Proprietors, offers a unique perspective on the current conflicts around copyrights, patents and trademarks.
And just as the movie quotes many times, piracy cannot be stopped or even controlled for that matter. So what are you worried about?
Becuse from a consumer stand point choosing the lesser of evils is better than ignoring it and waking up one morning to find the black boots have landed and full enforcement of "infringement" laws.

455.1.2008 18:18
vinny13
Inactive

Well you would have to pick Blu-Ray anyways because HD-DVD doesn't even have a burner...

465.1.2008 18:42

Originally posted by vinny13:
Well you would have to pick Blu-Ray anyways because HD-DVD doesn't even have a burner...

So? the prices on current BR writer media and hardware make it non exsistant to for the average consumer.

In fact sicne they are starting later with the HDVD writer stuff its prices on hardware will be 30% less or more what BR was/is.

475.1.2008 18:55
vinny13
Inactive

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny13:
Well you would have to pick Blu-Ray anyways because HD-DVD doesn't even have a burner...

So? the prices on current BR writer media and hardware make it non exsistant to for the average consumer.

In fact sicne they are starting later with the HDVD writer stuff its prices on hardware will be 30% less or more what BR was/is.
Ya but it's there...

485.1.2008 19:02

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
smcrzyguy
Yes and no, there were only +R -R writers the spec was readable on most if not all DVD drives, this is diffrent much more like beta v VHS.
Ya, but think about it, most computer drives already play both formats in one. Eventually this will happen with shelf top players. Also with writers

495.1.2008 19:08

Quote:
Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
smcrzyguy
Yes and no, there were only +R -R writers the spec was readable on most if not all DVD drives, this is diffrent much more like beta v VHS.
Ya, but think about it, most computer drives already play both formats in one. Eventually this will happen with shelf top players. Also with writers
in time yes thats still a good 2 years out if not 3 and if another studuio jumps HDVD is dead as a viable media format for hollywod and that will mean its dead for just abotu everythign, oh sure it will cling to life but like the Zip drive die a slow painful death.

But it dose have a larger window to cling to life, both do but still most likely the market as a whole will chose one and the other will fall to the waste side.

505.1.2008 19:24
varnull
Inactive

So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry?

There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded...

As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up.

Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media.

Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 05 Jan 2008 @ 19:27

515.1.2008 19:37

Originally posted by varnull:
So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry?

There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded...

As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up.

Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media.

Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud
Hollywood/media conglomerates they are far beyond local considerations , yes hollywood or the media mafia in the US plays a key role in things but there is more than 1 key to this puzzle.

Even world wise the market is split with a 10% diffreance once you add up where the formats are theres still plenty of life in the current direction of this format war, that direction being 1 winner but it could as easily break apart and they both join forces.

In he end lower prices to cosnuemrs is what is most important and if BR can price break it should drown HDVD easily.

525.1.2008 21:53

Originally posted by varnull:
So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry?

There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded...

As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up.

Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media.

Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud
I can't see how you can still side with hugh. What does the Indian and Hong Kong studios have to do with HD sales in the US. How many Americans play Indian and Hong Kong films? Not many. I agree that these locations may side with the HDDVD format but it will not be a benefit for those here in America with HDDVD players. How many of these other countries watch American made films? Many. With Warner and it's subsidiaries sided with bluray, HDDVD is living on bought time (150million). Once Paramounts agreements with the HDDVD camp are up, they will have to switch their efforts to the Bluray format. Also take into account the fact that Apple will be incorporating Bluray into their computers as well as several other manufacturers adds to the momentum of the Bluray boulder.

Bluray is the clear winner of this format war!!!

535.1.2008 22:13

Originally posted by varnull:
So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry?

There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded...

As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up.

Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media.

Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud
As for your comment regarding the 5 free bluray offer that Sony offers with their PS3: HDDVD has the same offer http://www.thelookandsoundofperfect.com/_pdf/perfect_hd_dvd_offer_redemption_form.pdf
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 05 Jan 2008 @ 22:14

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