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Analyst predicts continued sales slump for Blu-ray in 2008

Written by Rich Fiscus (Google+) @ 14 May 2008 14:35 User comments (59)

Analyst predicts continued sales slump for Blu-ray in 2008 At last week's MEDIA-TECH Expo in Frankfurt, Germany, media analyst Richard Cooper of Screen Digest predicted that the struggling US economy will have a major impact on the growth of Blu-ray in 2008. During his presentation on the future of Blu-ray Cooper backed up his assertion with some interesting figures, largely from DVD sales, showing that US households have historically purchase more titles annually than those in Europe. Based in part on those figures he sees Blu-ray sales continuing to remain low during 2008.
As we reported last month, sales of Blu-ray players dropped significantly after the end of the so-called format war with HD DVD, and have yet to return to their January levels.

His presentation also included detailed analysis of the affect PS3 sales may have on the market. He pointed to a recent study showing use of the game console as a BD (Blu-ray Disc) player in the US increasing from the end of 2007 through the beginning of 2008 as good news for movie sales. Also of note, however, was the competition for consumer dollars between games and movies. Such competition could prove problematic for the Blu-ray industry as long as the game console dominates the player market.

Of course PS3 figures aren't quite as important in Europe where, as Cooper pointed out, the adoption rate for the console is much lower. He attributes this largely to its relatively high price. It will be interesting to see whether European prices change if the economy becomes a more significant factor in US sales over the course of this year - especially during the Christmas season.

It's also worth noting that if you were to combine major analysts' predictions over the last 2 years you'd find that both Blu-ray and HD DVD should have won and shut the other completely out of the market. Additionally the victory was predicted to occur at any of several points between 2006 and 2010. Such speculation is always based on educated guessing, especially where new technology is concerned.

You can find more information on the presentation at the the MEDIA-TECH Expo website.

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59 user comments

114.5.2008 15:56

dir dir dir dir! What the hell did you guys think was/is gonna happen? It is a great yet for D/L content & flash content to make a go for the HD Title! with little to no extra players &/or items to buy only the Movie it self it is great for a recession! so you just spend $4 on a rental on your current system ot spend $400 on a BR player to spend $4-20 renting & buying movies what to do? oh & i have to use $500 in gas to drive to Be$t Buyz to get my $400 player (maybe not $500 but feels like it)

214.5.2008 16:00

With a full on recession in the US, You think ??????


"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


314.5.2008 16:03

I think this is another misleading title and directly contradicts the data presented by the analyst.

http://www.media-tech.net/fileadmin/temp..._HDJ%5B1%5D.pdf

The graph on his third slide clearly shows a prediction that BluRay will increase in sales compared to DVD through 2008 up to 2012 so much so that by 2011 he predicts that BluRay will be 1/3 of all total sales:

Quote:
Unit sales recover as consumers switch to BluRay
- BluRay to account for one in three sales by 2011

Just look at the bar graph for 2007 and 2008 and all the way to 2012. You can see an increasing volume of BluRay sales as compared to DVD. BD sales barely registered on the graph in 2007. The 2008 graph shows growth in sales - barely a "slump" as vurbal calls it. "Slump" means a decrease in sales. Obviously the analysts sees a growth starting this year.

The title of the article should read: Analyst predicts continued BluRay sales growth to reach 33% by 2011
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 14 May 2008 @ 16:06

414.5.2008 16:21

Originally posted by eatsushi:
The graph on his third slide clearly shows a prediction that BluRay will increase in sales compared to DVD through 2008 up to 2012 so much so that by 2011 he predicts that BluRay will be 1/3 of all total sales:

Quote:
Unit sales recover as consumers switch to BluRay
- BluRay to account for one in three sales by 2011

Just look at the bar graph for 2007 and 2008 and all the way to 2012. You can see an increasing volume of BluRay sales as compared to DVD. BD sales barely registered on the graph in 2007. The 2008 graph shows growth in sales - barely a "slump" as vurbal calls it. "Slump" means a decrease in sales. Obviously the analysts sees a growth starting this year.

The title of the article should read: Analyst predicts continued BluRay sales growth to reach 33% by 2011
Agreed. I don't know how any analyst can predict a sales slump for BluRay for 2008. For the 1st quarter alone (the slowest sales season of the year), HD media has already sold 50% of the total volume sold in 2007:

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/13771.cfm

Quote:
According to Reuters, 5 million HD movies have already been sold this year (mainly Blu-ray) and that puts the pace far ahead then 2007 which saw only 10 million movies sold for the entire year.
One-in-three sales by 2011 - I'll take that given the rate of HDTV market penetration.

514.5.2008 16:49
susieqbbb
Inactive

What a bunch of morons.

It has nothing to do with the blu ray movies it has to do with the blu ray players nobody is going to spend 300.00 for a 1080i blu-ray player when they can get a upconverter that converts dvd into 1080i for 80.00 now if you can make a blu-ray player for 80.00 then i would be interrested because i have a ps3 and i don't even use it for blu ray playback because i am not willing to purchase blu ray movies at 10-20 more than there dvd counter parts lame lower the prices and your sales will increase.

614.5.2008 17:03

They should fire that guy, split up his 6 figure salary and pay a few longtime afterdawn members to do his job from home ;-)

714.5.2008 18:12

Susieqbbb, so many brainiacs in here that don't get it. They're flatout wrong and won't acknowledge what you wrote.

814.5.2008 19:54

I will agree that I would like to see Blu-ray movies drop in price. I live in Australia, a regular (new release) DVD retails for about $30 where the Blu-ray version is usually about $40. As I much as I would like to see prices drop, I also understand that the Blu-ray Disc Association need to recover costs for R & D. Production costs are also higher for this format.

However, when viewing (and listening) to these films on quality equipment it is very hard to go back. It's like you've been a driving in a sports car and then had to go back to your regular old family car. It doesn't quite feel the same. Sure the family car felt good before you started driving the perfomance vehicle but after you've had a taste of something better the inadequacies of the latter become clearer.

Susieqbbb, Blu-ray players output up to 1080p not 1080i like you stated. DVD's (even if they are upconverted) don't even come close to the quality Blu-ray discs provide on the right equipment.

So my point is that unless you have the equipment to view and hear Blu-ray movies with the quality intended (ie: Full HD/1080p TV & quality audio equipment) then you don't really have the right criteria to say that regular DVD's are just as good.

Also, Blu-ray movies are not the only thing that count towards Blu-ray as a format. The PS3 games are all pressed on Blu-ray discs, so every PS3 game sold is also a step forward for the Blu-ray Disc Association.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 14 May 2008 @ 19:58

"Great minds discuss ideas... Average minds discuss events... Small minds discuss people"

PS3 compatible video creation thread... mkv2vob, tsMuxeR etc.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/621809
The complete HD (Blu-ray/HD-DVD) back-up thread.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/639346

914.5.2008 21:37

i wouldnt be surprised if blu ray sales arent strong in 2008 either. i mean, like a quarter of the people i know dont even know what it is. like they'll have an HDTV, with no HD-DVD or blu ray player. whats the point of an HDTV without some HD viewing? but just give it some time and everyone will adjust to it.

1014.5.2008 21:41
varnull
Inactive

Or maybe we will give the drm-ray the finger..

blu sales in a town of 35,000 = 0.. multiply across the planet = more sony "buy now pay later"

We aren't falling for it again sony.

same old faces.. same old sony hype... more bullsh1t from the same camps here... move along.. nothing new to see here.

hey ryu... BDA = bluray disk a$$hats? **giggles at failed format compulsory subscribers** (or I could be a lot more offensive about these scumbags)

sony = enemy

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 14 May 2008 @ 21:47

1114.5.2008 23:55

vurbal: How about reporting on the other presentors at the MediaTech Expo?

http://www.media-tech.net/expo08/events-seminars.html

Jim Bottoms of Understanding and Solutions had some very interesting predictions too:

http://www.media-tech.net/fileadmin/temp...0May%202008.pdf

The graph on slide#10 for example. He predicts 45 million BluRay discs are to be sold in the US for 2008 and 15 million for Europe. That's a pretty good improvement from the 10 million (combined HD DVD and BD) sold in the US in 2007, right? As pointed out by eatsushi above, Richard Cooper agrees with this prediction of increased BD disc sales in 2008 as compared to last year.

He also predicts that in the year 2011 there will be 450 million BD disc sales in the US and 180 million in Europe.

The Singulus and the DADC presentations also paint a rosy picture with respect to increased replication capacity. Actually the entire first day of the Expo was dominated by BluRay presentors, manufacturers and replicators.

Quote:
1:00PM - 5:30PM Presentation Theatre

Blu-ray Summit

Dieter Daum, President Sony DADC, Download presentation [PDF]

Blu-ray Equipment Update

Stefan A. Baustert, President & CEO, Singulus Technologies.
Stanley So, Sales Manager, Anwell Thin Film & Vacuum Technology Ltd.
Toshio Koike, Senior Corporate Advisor, Marubeni Techno-Systems America.

Blu-ray Market Update

Frank Simonis, European Chairman, Blu-ray Disc Association.
Jim Bottoms, President, Understanding & Solutions.
Richard Cooper, Analyst, Screen Digest Video Team.

Blu-ray Authoring Update

Simon James, Senior Marketing Manager, Sonic Solutions - Professional Products Group.

Blu-ray Licensing Update

BD Format licensing: Boudewijn van Dijk, representative of the Blu-ray CC.
MPEG LA Licensing: William Geary, Vice President Business MPEG LA.

Not really the doom-and-gloom-fest that you try to imply in your article.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 15 May 2008 @ 0:09

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1215.5.2008 0:09

I am happy with regular old dvds.. I would however laugh my as$ off if blu ray failed to catch on like betamax and something else came out that was better..

1315.5.2008 8:28

Hey Varnull, how's your CRT holding out?


"Great minds discuss ideas... Average minds discuss events... Small minds discuss people"

PS3 compatible video creation thread... mkv2vob, tsMuxeR etc.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/621809
The complete HD (Blu-ray/HD-DVD) back-up thread.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/639346

1415.5.2008 10:05

Is there a study that accounts for Blu-ray burners? I know there is also a trend of people moving more toward purchasing/building HTPC systems (myself already owning one).

If I ever buy into the Blu-ray market (and I probably wont for a few years yet), then I will be simply adding a Blu-ray burner to my HTPC rather than purchasing a stand alone or PS3. I like the idea of better picture and sound, but I do not like the idea of DRM or high pricing.

1515.5.2008 12:43

Blu-Ray is doing fine no matter how people like or dislike it the numbers this year are far better than last years.I expect a major rush this coming holiday season.

1616.5.2008 0:00

What still puzzles me is why the average consumer isn't wise enough to just purchase a PS3 at $399 ? I mean for that amount of money you walk home with a Blu-ray player, a game system, wi/fi internet, bluetooth, a hard drive to store music, photos etc and a multi card reader. OR, spend $500-$700 for a stand alone Blu-ray unit? Don't get me wrong, I'm an Xbox 360 guy all the way but the PS3 is the best value (as of today) for a Blu-ray buyer. I was a HD-DVD casualty because I went by Sony's past medium failures such as Beta-Max,Mini-disc,Super Audio CD, UMD etc and thought Blu-ray was just next in that line. Boy was I wrong. Does anyone share this same opinion? Yeah sales may slow but with a "rumor" of an Xbox 360 BR drive, the prices should become more competitive and fall to a more affordable level. Sales will go up when all of these harware companies wanting their slice of the Blu-ray pie start to drop the prices(thus lowering the BR movie price too).

1716.5.2008 12:05

Originally posted by NexGen76:
Blu-Ray is doing fine no matter how people like or dislike it the numbers this year are far better than last years.I expect a major rush this coming holiday season.
I had a list of bluray titles that I wanted to get by the holiday season. But gas prices here went from $3.60/gal to $4.10/gal in 2 days (and only 2 weeks before Memorial Day). I can't imagine how high it will get this summer. Forecasts I've heard are over $5.00/gal. I've adjusted my budget to prepare to get slammed with an extra $100 - $150/month in gas (maybe even more once my kid starts school in September), and also an increase in my home heating bill. So all electronic and video entertainment expenses have been completely cut out of my family budget for the remainder of 2008. I'm sure there are other families out there with similar situations. I'm curious as to how much of an impact the US economy is speculated to have in these studies.

And I would buy a PS3 game over a bluray movie. It provides more mindless entertainment time to escape the economy woes :(
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 16 May 2008 @ 12:06

1816.5.2008 15:12

Ryu77, Varnull is probably still watching his VHS tapes as well, you know he wouldn't have bought a Beta player and why go to DVD's when VHS is so good. :) Do they make an Upconverted VHS? Too funny... :)

I know I'll never upgrade to BD when a DVD Upconverted player is so great, wait a minute maybe I should take another puff.

I think sales will be a little slow this year compared to what they might have been projected, due to the economy and the fact that the war is over. BD won't drop in price much until they feel sales are truly slumping.

1916.5.2008 18:12

I don't drive a Maserati.... I drive a hoopty Dodge...I don't have nor want a Blu Ray player. I don't have an HDTV....I have 2 coupon subsidized converter boxes. I don't have a cell phone! I don't need 24/7 harassment from bed to bathroom. I don't have M$ FISTA...I have XP.
I do a lot of STUFF on the PC. It runs fine. SO does my hoopty. So does my DVD player WITHOUT an upconverter.
You must take into account that most posters to technical websites are high end users (or wannabe's!)who wish to be on the next cutting edge. The general public is not so much enthralled at better quality at any price. I am not. It must be a quantum leap...blu Ray is no such leap. I am not market driven...you could say I am CHEAP! I buy gas...and groceries...and MANY DVD's..
The same peeps who extol the virtues of HD formats also are the same chumps who download crap vids to a 2 inch phone screen! Or mp3's instead of REAL music on vinyl. NEWEST is not always the best, just convenient....at a price! Go figure.

2016.5.2008 18:39
varnull
Inactive

Originally posted by JRude:
I don't drive a Maserati.... I drive a hoopty Dodge...I don't have nor want a Blu Ray player. I don't have an HDTV....I have 2 coupon subsidized converter boxes. I don't have a cell phone! I don't need 24/7 harassment from bed to bathroom. I don't have M$ FISTA...I have XP.
I do a lot of STUFF on the PC. It runs fine. SO does my hoopty. So does my DVD player WITHOUT an upconverter.
You must take into account that most posters to technical websites are high end users (or wannabe's!)who wish to be on the next cutting edge. The general public is not so much enthralled at better quality at any price. I am not. It must be a quantum leap...blu Ray is no such leap. I am not market driven...you could say I am CHEAP! I buy gas...and groceries...and MANY DVD's..
The same peeps who extol the virtues of HD formats also are the same chumps who download crap vids to a 2 inch phone screen! Or mp3's instead of REAL music on vinyl. NEWEST is not always the best, just convenient....at a price! Go figure.
RIGHT ON!!!

Next person who refers to me as HE gets the shafting that is due to them... AND YES!!! I do still watch vhs tapes, n1700tapes, n1500 tapes (which look as good as dvd on a well set up machine), laserdisk and all kinds of older media.

I'm with JRude on this. I can't abide the rich c-nts preaching at us "consume consume consume.. new new new" .. f-ckin a$$hats!!! Try being self employed in a declining economy with 30% inflation.. then say "I must spend £1000 on a f-in telly.. It is essential to my lifestyle"!!! Crap.. When I started out you were lucky to have a 20 year old B+W tv salvaged from a back street and repaired for your bedsit, IF you could find one.

Open source and analog... shit to digital media.. it isn't better, it's just CHEAPER TO PRODUCE on mass.. More output DOES NOT mean better quality.. just more repetitive formulaic boring shite.. (last 2 years hollywood record breaking output shows what crap people will buy "because it is new"

Ears and eyes are analog.. as is the emergency broadcasting system...

20 years and none of this will matter.. we will be lucky to have somewhere to sit to watch an ipod size screen, and the power to run it will cost more that 80% will earn.

Observation of a local man with 4 children and a big house who became unemployed..

First things to go were the huge tv and HD player.. then the flash car, replaced with an old wreck.. then the nice kitchen appliances.. then the big flashy house... then the wife and kids... He still has his golf club membership, but doesn't go more than once a month... They don't like mixing with "the dole scroungers" up there..
I softmodded his second hand xbox and sorted him out a 17" tv (£5, and he had to think about spending that on £45 a week) and an old computer for his 2 room flat..
Funny how far people can fall given 12 months of no income eh?
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 16 May 2008 @ 18:41

2116.5.2008 21:10

Screw Sony.... Stay with what ya got, and let them struggle.
Don't buy any more gas than you absolutely have to.
Don't fill up, just buy enough to get you where you have to go.
When the demand falls, so will the rich turds who run those companies.
Nuff said....

2216.5.2008 21:20

Originally posted by plextor05:
Screw Sony.... Stay with what ya got, and let them struggle.
Don't buy any more gas than you absolutely have to.
Don't fill up, just buy enough to get you where you have to go.
When the demand falls, so will the rich turds who run those companies.
Nuff said....

With the above in mind,would anyone care to comment on my orphan thread ??

http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/662334


"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


2317.5.2008 1:44
klbinphx
Inactive

Big surprise! Sony won the battle but lost the war. Too bad, HD-DVD software was less buggy and offered much cheaper players. Blu Ray will never recover, and in the end game, Toshiba will be the victor.

2417.5.2008 4:45

Originally posted by JRude:
I don't drive a Maserati.... I drive a hoopty Dodge...I don't have nor want a Blu Ray player. I don't have an HDTV....I have 2 coupon subsidized converter boxes. I don't have a cell phone! I don't need 24/7 harassment from bed to bathroom. I don't have M$ FISTA...I have XP.
I do a lot of STUFF on the PC. It runs fine. SO does my hoopty. So does my DVD player WITHOUT an upconverter.
You must take into account that most posters to technical websites are high end users (or wannabe's!)who wish to be on the next cutting edge. The general public is not so much enthralled at better quality at any price. I am not. It must be a quantum leap...blu Ray is no such leap. I am not market driven...you could say I am CHEAP! I buy gas...and groceries...and MANY DVD's..
The same peeps who extol the virtues of HD formats also are the same chumps who download crap vids to a 2 inch phone screen! Or mp3's instead of REAL music on vinyl. NEWEST is not always the best, just convenient....at a price! Go figure.
This proves my point.

For clarification purposes, my point is not to push Blu-ray onto those that do not wish to benefit from it. JRude, you have made it very clear that you are not interested in Blu-ray and you have every right to feel that way. Every single person has the freedom to their own beliefs and consumer habits, as do I and other Blu-ray consumers.

My point here is that those that do not have the right equipment can not pass judgement on what Blu-ray offers quality wise. How can you possibly judge something that you don't own or haven't experienced?

Do you realise that the difference between Blu-ray and DVD, is the same difference between DVD and VCD?

VCD: 352 x 240 (84,480 pixels), Constant Bitrate: 1,150Kbs for video/224Kbs for audio.

DVD: 720 x 480 (345,600 pixels), Max Bitrate: 9,800Kbs.

Blu-ray: 1920 x 1080 (2,073,600 pixels), Max bitrate: 45,000Kbs.

DVD vs. VCD = 4.09 times the resolution & 7.13 times the bitrate.
Blu-ray vs. DVD = 6 times the resolution & 4.59 times the bitrate.

So as you can see Blu-ray actually has a larger leap in resolution when comparing previous digital video technology. The bitrate jump wasn't as great but that could be considered not as essential as h264 & VC-1 are both very efficient codecs.

So those that have say a 19" PC monitor, should compare DVD and VCD on that... As that is basically the same difference that those of us that own larger (42" and up) TV's can see between Blu-ray and DVD.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 17 May 2008 @ 8:46

"Great minds discuss ideas... Average minds discuss events... Small minds discuss people"

PS3 compatible video creation thread... mkv2vob, tsMuxeR etc.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/621809
The complete HD (Blu-ray/HD-DVD) back-up thread.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/639346

2517.5.2008 9:06

All that product comparison is ok.
However, the point here is that:
THE VALUE OF AN OBJECT IS HOW MUCH A PERSON IS WILLING TO PAY FOR IT!
If you want prices to be high, then go ahead and buy while they're high. Otherwise, wait until they fall. Who cares whether the corporations "recover their development costs". They're supposed to recover their cost to develop product over a MUCH longer time.
All those folks who stand outside the Best Buy waiting all night to get an X-Box or PSwhatever are the one's who fuel the high prices.
So, thanks so much for that. Enjoy waiting at the gas line, too.

2617.5.2008 12:24

Being cheap isnít a virtue and I feel for those that are, life must be miserable. It is also those cheap people that didnít look at the big picture and got burned with the HD-DVD format, if you want to think of it that way. As long as there are combo drives you will be able to still use any content on HD-DVD so you really havenít lost and you can always port those to BD down the road.

This is about what people will pay that is always what sales bakes down to. Obviously there are many people willing to pay the price and this is partially to do with going into a store and seeing the real difference HD makes. The average Joe doesnít need to compare specís to see the difference it just jumps out at you when demoín gear. I have some cheap friends that have made the jump after seeing the amazing picture and sound quality they get from the new gear. And like I did at first (many years ago), they even watch stuff they normally wouldnít just because itís in HD. People are still buying/driving big vehicles even though GAS prices are sky rocketing so unfortunately you canít always use reason on what people will do.

As to companies recouping their R&D costs they always want to recover those costs as quickly as possible and will try to do so that is where the HD-DVD war was good for us even though everyone thought it was a bad thing. This is how it has always been and will always be, unless we go socialistic like it seems we are heading.

2717.5.2008 16:26

My point is that "All that glitters is not gold". You can be impressed with things, but why spend a huge amount of money for if you can wait a year and get it cheaper? I really don't have the time to go after every little thing that comes out for sale.

2817.5.2008 16:54

<Do you realise that the difference between Blu-ray and DVD, is the same difference between DVD and VCD? >
poop
Not to the human eye. DVD's don't pixilate, VCD's do..at some point bitrate for bitrate's sake is a marketing ploy. Buy a 60 inch TV and NEED Blu Ray? Ha! I can make an .avi file that looks just as good as a DVD vid if I am not viewing it at Madison Square Garden. At a 1,000 kb/s vid rate. And it DOES look good on a 60 inch TV! The next format will be 50 Gazillion kb/s ...and SOMEBODY will buy it and extol it's virtues...not me. Of course, it will be DRM'd to HELL & back! Ha haaa!

2917.5.2008 17:16

Originally posted by JRude:
DVD's don't pixilate, VCD's do..at some point bitrate for bitrate's sake is a marketing ploy. Buy a 60 inch TV and NEED Blu Ray?
DVD's don't pixelate? Then why is it that everyone that I demonstrate a LCD/Plasma TV to ask me why does it look pixelated (when a DVD is playing on the screen). I then walk them over to where our Blu-ray display is and they say... That's better, that looks so clear. This isn't one Person that I am talking about. This happens on a consistent basis, every single day. For reference, I never try to tell anybody they need Blu-ray as you quoted. After demonstrating the quality, I often don't need to.

Originally posted by JRude:
Ha! I can make an .avi file that looks just as good as a DVD vid if I am not viewing it at Madison Square Garden. At a 1,000 kb/s vid rate. And it DOES look good on a 60 inch TV!
If you seriously think that an AVI (I am guessing DivX/Xvid) encoded at 1000Kbs looks as good as a DVD on a 60" TV, then I recommend you see an Optometrist. Please don't suggest that I don't know how to encode DivX in the right way to get optimum quality. I am confident that I could teach you some things about video/audio encoding. JRude, no matter what you do... At 1000Kbs, it's never going to look that great on a 60" TV. The only codec that could look acceptable (not great) at that bitrate would be h264.

"Great minds discuss ideas... Average minds discuss events... Small minds discuss people"

PS3 compatible video creation thread... mkv2vob, tsMuxeR etc.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/621809
The complete HD (Blu-ray/HD-DVD) back-up thread.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/639346

3017.5.2008 18:28

It's NOT bitrate but bits per pixel...I HAVE seen an optometrist and do nicely with my trifocals! It's resolution AND bits per pixel! I can make a FINE smaller resolution file with higher bits per pixel. I do not NEED the higher end codec. Anybody can learn something from another. But I am VERY good at what I do. And they DO play very nicely on an 60 inch HD plasma TV screen. If peeps NEED to spend $10,000 on the ''lifestyle'' they have chosen, I'm happy for them. I personally don't see subsidizing SONY and others to keep up with the latest & greatest. A crap flic is a crap flic in ANY format. If I wanted ''WOW'' I would get VISTA CRAPSTA...which I haven't. My hoopty car gets great gas mileage..my DVD's and avi's suffice for one that is not held captive to ''technology'' and high $$$ updates and upgrades. I have better areas to spend my $$$!

3117.5.2008 22:10

Sorry, but blu-ray prices are just insane. Prices here in South Korea were out-of-line, and now they've gone UP. We're paying well over $30 average per disc here for new titles. Who is going to pay that? The "cheap" blu-rays are around $22. My wife and I have taken to checking movies out from the local library FOR FREE. They've got shelves of titles, and my Oppo upscales nicely. I used to buy over 10 titles per month during the format war. Now I don't buy much of anything, because the prices are HIGHER! They know what needs to be done to make blu-ray a success -- LOWER PRICES. They are reluctant to do that.

3217.5.2008 23:38

Like I said, the value of an object is what you're willing to pay for it. Nobody wants to pay more for something that doesn't have any more perceived value than what they're used to. And, they don't want some sales hack putting the hard sell on them either.

3318.5.2008 6:32

Originally posted by JRude:
It's NOT bitrate but bits per pixel...I HAVE seen an optometrist and do nicely with my trifocals! It's resolution AND bits per pixel! I can make a FINE smaller resolution file with higher bits per pixel.
What are you saying? You initially said that you can encode an AVI at 1000Kbs that looks as good as a DVD, now you are saying it's all about bits per pixel...?? Here's what you said...

Originally posted by JRude:
I can make an .avi file that looks just as good as a DVD vid if I am not viewing it at Madison Square Garden. At a 1,000 kb/s vid rate. And it DOES look good on a 60 inch TV!
So as you can see, you clearly said an AVI encoded at 1000Kbs looks as good as a DVD on a 60" TV.

Originally posted by JRude:
I do not NEED the higher end codec. Anybody can learn something from another. But I am VERY good at what I do.
What do you mean higher end? If you really did know what you were talking about when it comes to video encoding, then you would know that x264 is completely open source.

Originally posted by JRude:
And they DO play very nicely on an 60 inch HD plasma TV screen.
Are you saying that you own a 60" Plasma? Are you really trying to say that AVI's encoded at 1000Kbs look as good as DVD's on a TV that size? I would suggest trying some new specs. Also, you have a 60" Plasma but are suggesting that spending a few hundred dollars on a Blu-ray player is a waste of money and would not compliment your HD TV that you spent thousands on??

Originally posted by JRude:
If peeps NEED to spend $10,000 on the ''lifestyle'' they have chosen, I'm happy for them. I personally don't see subsidizing SONY and others to keep up with the latest & greatest.
What related to Blu-ray costs $10,000? Unless you are talking about a Full HD TV, high end audio equipment and a Blu-ray player. Out of all that equipment that I just mentioned, the Blu-ray player would be the least expensive... So where is your logic?

Originally posted by JRude:
A crap flic is a crap flic in ANY format. If I wanted ''WOW'' I would get VISTA CRAPSTA...which I haven't.
How does Vista relate to the quality of Blu-ray?

Originally posted by JRude:
My hoopty car gets great gas mileage.
I am happy for you. Maybe you could try cycling if you are really looking to save money. You might even benefit from fitness at the same time. Hopefully that can release some of that obvious stress you have.

Originally posted by JRude:
.my DVD's and avi's suffice for one that is not held captive to ''technology'' and high $$$ updates and upgrades. I have better areas to spend my $$$!
We all have choices.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 18 May 2008 @ 8:36

"Great minds discuss ideas... Average minds discuss events... Small minds discuss people"

PS3 compatible video creation thread... mkv2vob, tsMuxeR etc.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/621809
The complete HD (Blu-ray/HD-DVD) back-up thread.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/639346

3418.5.2008 10:51

I could be wrong, but most folks work for a living without intending to rip off their clients or their community. They have a budget that doesn't include a 60-inch tv, much less a giant home theatre.

Blue-Ray is intended to be viewed on a large format high-definition output screen. If you don't have one, you don't need blue-ray.

Some of us poor folks are getting by just fine with a 32 or 40 inch rig without any problems, and many are having a great time with their DVD player and VHS for those legacy movies and home videos.

We don't really have time to burn thinking about what we can buy next, and SONY has an ugly reputation of victimizing it's customers. I'll stick to RCA, Hitachi, Quasar, or anything else.

By the way, I didn't check the box that says, "Check this box, if you want to get email notifications when new messages are added to this thread." But I keep getting bugged about this lame thread.

3518.5.2008 14:36

Ryu77 ...I have a 60 inch rear projection OLD TV..works fine..my SON has the plasma 6 footer and refuses to watch anything that pixilates...Statistics are for proving a point...I go by my eyes and the seat of my pants. Hope you are happy with your gear, I am mine! The LAST person I listen to is a salesman...Have a reasonable day...anything else is a gift!

3625.5.2008 18:27

Originally posted by H0bbes:
They should fire that guy, split up his 6 figure salary and pay a few longtime afterdawn members to do his job from home ;-)
uh maybe 7 figure, 6 figure low end is only 100,000 over 2 people thats only 50,000 each! you could barely rent a 1 room apt here in cali with that!

RusH

3725.5.2008 18:43

Amazing, nobrainer hasn't given a single comment on this. I think he's learning.

3825.5.2008 18:47

People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary.


"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


3925.5.2008 19:00
varnull
Inactive

And FYI.. my 22" FERGUSON crt tv is still making better pictures in it's 29th year than I see on most LCD HD things on display... Yes.. I had to build the a/v inputs myself.

I think most of these HD pricks have never seen a properly set up crt display from the days when they were the dogs. the Mullard PIL tubes were the best. True white, true black and accurate scale tracking from all 3 guns.. something I have yet to see from either a plasma or lcd.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 25 May 2008 @ 19:03

4030.5.2008 21:58

Originally posted by iluvendo:
People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary.

HD is still selling even though we are in a recession and this maybe in part due to the amount of TV we all watch. If you arenít at work youíre most likely watching TV. And again when people see how sharp HD is they are willing to scrap by and make that big buck purchase. I know people who keep gambling every week, complain about being broke always, but still go back to the casinos so common sense doesín always prevail unfortunately.


Originally posted by Varnull:
And FYI.. my 22" FERGUSON crt tv is still making better pictures in it's 29th year than I see on most LCD HD things on display... Yes.. I had to build the a/v inputs myself.

I think most of these HD pricks have never seen a properly set up crt display from the days when they were the dogs. the Mullard PIL tubes were the best. True white, true black and accurate scale tracking from all 3 guns.. something I have yet to see from either a plasma or lcd.

First off I think you and JRude need glasses, you might want to go see an Optometrist sometime soon. HD pricks? How about those overly Cheap pricks? There is NO way your 22Ē CRT is going to compete with a HD LCD viewed in full HD unless it is a really crappy LCD set. I have a 36Ē HD CRT that blows all of my LCD/Plasma TVís away and this is only due to the fact that most older FPís donít handle dark scenes well, especially LCDís. Plasmaís are a little better with dark scenes but Burn-in is a problem as well as life expectancy. When viewing normal content that was produced in HD and viewed on an HD LCD there is no comparison to your extremely old and out dated Ferguson TV, is that an old console set with the turntable/stereo system in it? Too funnyÖ I do have a friend with a 32Ē SD CRT that is very nice and in some circumstances looks better then the HD FP sets but it still doesnít compare to a good HD signal on those FPís, not even close.


Originally posted by plextor05:
I could be wrong, but most folks work for a living without intending to rip off their clients or their community. They have a budget that doesn't include a 60-inch tv, much less a giant home theatre.

Most people are buying 40-42Ē sets and again it is most likely due to the amount of TV viewing they due and the price that size gives them. If you knew how expensive it was to build a large FP you couldnít justify you rip off comment but you know ignorance is bliss or is it?


Originally posted by plextor05:
Blue-Ray is intended to be viewed on a large format high-definition output screen. If you don't have one, you don't need blue-ray.

Again wrong, Iíve hooked up a cheap little 7Ē LCD HD portable to BD and it looks great, better is just better no matter the size.


Originally posted by plextor05:
Some of us poor folks are getting by just fine with a 32 or 40 inch rig without any problems, and many are having a great time with their DVD player and VHS for those legacy movies and home videos.

If you are so d*mn poor how is it you could afford a 40Ē CRT they certainly are not cheap! Also your username is Plextor so if you have one of those you have spent more there too. Just one more contradiction I see. VHS do they still make those? You donít need VHS to get old movies Iím a classic movie freak and almost anything I want I can get on DVD very cheap. There are a couple of movies / shows you still canít get, but not many. I havenít watched a VHS for probably a decade or better they just look horrible these days and they degrade with time or just get eaten in your player what a crappy format when you think about it.


Originally posted by plextor05:
We don't really have time to burn thinking about what we can buy next, and SONY has an ugly reputation of victimizing it's customers. I'll stick to RCA, Hitachi, Quasar, or anything else.

I really donít like Sony either and there is very little I will buy from them but their TVís are excellent, yes they cost a little more but so does Hitachi and Pioneer. The way I look at it is Sony TVís are better by enough to make the high price tag worth it. They make a 46Ē LCD FP for $2,500 USD that has the 20K contrast and 120 refresh these TVís are well worth the price and will blow that old Ferguson out of the water hands down.


Originally posted by plextor05:
By the way, I didn't check the box that says, "Check this box, if you want to get email notifications when new messages are added to this thread." But I keep getting bugged about this lame thread.

Wakeup it is automatically checked you need to uncheck it. The lights are on but nobodies home apparently.


In Summation
Iím a bang for the buck person, not a cheap prick or a foolish need to spend 10x the price guy just to have the most current stuff. Everyone has their own choice as to what is best for them but you canít argue that old TV is better than the new digital standards, it just doesnít hold up. So if 8 track tapes or the old windup RCA phono players are your thing good for you but you canít knock people who like state of the art technology, unless you are jealous however and then you really have no point.

Ryu77
As always youíve done a really good job on this thread keep up the good work. You do know that some of these people will never get it though and I sure donít need to point them out or wait a minute maybe I have. :)
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 30 May 2008 @ 22:10

4130.5.2008 22:09

Quote:
Originally posted by iluvendo:

People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary.

HD is still selling even though we are in a recession and this maybe in part due to the amount of TV we all watch. If you arenít at work youíre most likely watching TV. And again when people see how sharp HD is they are willing to scrap by and make that big buck purchase.
Quote:
I know people who keep gambling every week, complain about being broke always, but still go back to the casinos so common sense doesín always prevail unfortunately.





Mr Movies, addiction is not the same thing.

As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .

What do you think the public would choose and why ?

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


4230.5.2008 22:16

Originally posted by Iluvendo:
As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .

What do you think the public would choose and why ?
Now you are really getting ridiculous this isnít a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there arenít you!
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 30 May 2008 @ 22:17

4330.5.2008 22:24

Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by Iluvendo:
As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .

What do you think the public would choose and why ?
Now you are really getting ridiculous this isnít a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there arenít you!


But you made the direct point of gambling over all else as your point of contention. So I felt a cooresponding counterpoint was necessary.

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


4430.5.2008 22:30

Quote:
Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by Iluvendo:
As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .

What do you think the public would choose and why ?
Now you are really getting ridiculous this isnít a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there arenít you!


But you made the direct point of gambling over all else as your point of contention. So I felt a cooresponding counterpoint was necessary.
If you properly read it, it was a point that people do crazy things and aren't always predictable or do they make good choices when it comes to money or many other things in life.

4530.5.2008 22:42

Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.

Would you say we are in agreement ?


"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


4630.5.2008 22:48

Originally posted by iluvendo:
Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.

Would you say we are in agreement ?
I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite.

What I will agree with is we all should be sensible and not try to live beyond our means. Also when products like BDís raise their prices because now they have a monopoly people should stop buying their product in order to force them from gouging us.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 30 May 2008 @ 23:03

4730.5.2008 22:57

Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by iluvendo:
Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.

Would you say we are in agreement ?
I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite.

I see H2 Hummers on the streets, but as regular gas is over $4/gal, I see less and less each day. I drive a Toyota Camry 4 cyl and get 33 mpg. You are correct dummies abound.

The joke is "God must love stupid people, otherwise he would'nt made so many of them"

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


4830.5.2008 23:05

Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by iluvendo:
Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.

Would you say we are in agreement ?
I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite.

Quote:
What I will agree with is we all should be sensible and not try to live beyond our means. Also when products like BDís raise their prices because now they have a monopoly people should stop buying their product in order to force them from gouging us
.

You sound like a Libertarian, my kinda guy!

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


4930.5.2008 23:10

That Toyota is a great car I have a friend that is going to get one as they are getting rid of their Mercedes, you can't go wrong with the Camry.

And yes I am a Libertarian you have a good day iluvendo. :)

5030.5.2008 23:14

Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
That Toyota is a great car I have a friend that is going to get one as they are getting rid of their Mercedes, you can't go wrong with the Camry.

And yes I am a Libertarian you have a good day iluvendo. :)

You have a good day/night too Mr-Movies !!

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


5130.5.2008 23:48

All is peaceful in ''The Wild Kingdom''.........for the moment.
If ya remember that, you probably don't have an HD TV & Blu Ray....;- )

5231.5.2008 0:07

Originally posted by JRude:
Quote:
All is peaceful in ''The Wild Kingdom''.........for the moment.



But tomorrow is another day !!!



If ya remember that, you probably don't have an HD TV & Blu Ray....;- )


"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


5331.5.2008 1:21

''Fiddle de dee!'' lol!

5431.5.2008 5:33

And that ends another interesting episode at AfterDawn...

Please stay tuned for more regular entertainment scheduled at the next Blu-ray news post... LOL!

Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Ryu77
As always youíve done a really good job on this thread keep up the good work. You do know that some of these people will never get it though and I sure donít need to point them out or wait a minute maybe I have. :)
Thank you.

The fact that some never get it, is why at times I think it's better to take the high road and just leave it as it is. ;-)

"Great minds discuss ideas... Average minds discuss events... Small minds discuss people"

PS3 compatible video creation thread... mkv2vob, tsMuxeR etc.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/621809
The complete HD (Blu-ray/HD-DVD) back-up thread.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/639346

5531.5.2008 13:25

Last time on "As the Disc turns", it turned out that BD has won the contest over rival HD (for Ms.Mo'ney's attention) , but as a sore looser, and not willing to concede defeat over the prized French lovely Ms. Mo'ney, HD digs deep into his pocket and pulls out Super Def SD (As HD knows Ms. Mo'ney is basically old school). HD wants Ms. Mo'ney and won't let BD have her. But to BD's credit, he adds oriental flavor, so BD is going to woo Ms. Mo'ney with Chinese cuisine. The plot thickens. Stay tuned folks, for the next episode of "As the Disc Turns"

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 31 May 2008 @ 13:54

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


562.6.2008 16:59

Where's the sales slump?

Blu-ray sales from January through May 2008 have already surpassed sales for all of 2007

Quote:
The world just keeps getting more Blu as the end of the format war has led to consumers jumping into high-def discs with both feet.

More than 11 million hi-def Blu-ray movies have been sold so far, according to data compiled by the Redhill Group for Home Media Magazine, and that's even before the potentially biggest Blu-ray title to date hits the market on September 2: "Transformers."

Projections based on preliminary data show that Blu-ray sales through May have already surpassed sales for all of 2007.

Blu-ray software sales in the first four months of this year more than quadrupled from the same period last year, climbing to 11 million since inception.

In an indication that the surrender of HD DVD had the overall effect everyone had hoped for in sparking the average consumer to feel comfortable jumping into the high-def market, this year's Blu-ray software sales through April are more than triple the number of sales of Blu-ray and HD DVD combined during the same period last year.

To further illustrate the point, consumers are increasingly choosing Blu-ray over DVD when new releases are available in both formats. For example, a year ago each new top 10 release mostly generated only 1% - 2% of sales from Blu-ray, with a couple titles collecting as much as 5% on Blu-ray.

This year in the first quarter, the top three Blu-ray titles, "I Am Legend," "3:10 to Yuma" and "No Country For Old Men," saw 8% - 10% of their sales in the Blu-ray format. Catalog Blu-ray titles that were also in the top 10, such as "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," "300," "Planet Earth: The Complete Collection," and "Casino Royale," saw overall DVD/Blu-ray sales jump to 18% - 28% for the Blu-ray versions of those titles during the first quarter.

The surge will no doubt continue with today's official announcement from Paramount that "Transformers" will be coming to Blu-ray on September 2. A slew of additional heavyweight new and classic titles begins to hit Blu-ray this week with "Cloverfield" and Warner's "Dirty Harry" collection and continues next month with "Top Gun" and special editions of Batman and Tom Clancy Jack Ryan movies and the "Starship Troopers" trilogy.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 02 Jun 2008 @ 17:02

5711.6.2008 22:07

When I go to my local rental store I see the bluray shelves full, nobody even rents them let alone buy them, I don't go by the stats mostly, I go by what I see in the trenches for myself.

As for the quality, after visiting friends and neighbors with all kinds of different size lcd or plasma's, and I do have 20-20 vision still, what I have learned is anything over 40 in. bluray kinda makes a little better of a differnce, 50 or more makes a big difference, 40 or under just like plextor said, you don't need it, actually you are throwing your money out the window, and especially most of the dvd players are the one's I believe they call upconverted or other (I'm not a techie)so I'm not quoting, but those sets are like 75 bucks, with those watching a regular dvd on a 40 or below set you would probably need to have an eye of an eagle to see any difference between the bluray and standard.

So you people with 40 or unders, don't waste your money, and the one's thinking about upgrading to 40 or under, don't get excited thinking your viewing pleasure will get better with bluray because it won't.

5811.6.2008 22:40

Where I am BluRay is selling very well. In the Walmart the PS3 sold out, the Magnavox sold out, the Samsung sold out, the Sony and Panasonic only 1 player left. The movies some are $15 and very few left. Other movies are $19 to $25 and selling very well too. The new movies like Bee Movie and There Will Be Blood and Jumper all sold out.

I wanted HDDVD but now BluRay is the only way to get highdef movies.

5912.6.2008 0:00

Well congrats at your local stores, the walmarts here in the philly and surrounding area's all bluray stuff is sitting and rotting.

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