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EMA report shows games, not Blu-ray with most impressive gain in '07

Written by Rich Fiscus (Google+) @ 24 Jun 2008 14:24 User comments (23)

EMA report shows games, not Blu-ray with most impressive gain in '07 The Entertainment Merchants Associatioon (EMA) has released its annual report on the US home entertainment sales and rental market. After last year's prediction that high definition discs would dominate the market by 2009 you might expect to see significant growth during 2007. In terms of percentage it was actually fairly impressive at more than 200% sales growth, but in terms of the total market that's not as impressive as it sounds.
According to the report HD discs still accounted for barely over $260 million in sales during 2007. By comparison standard DVD sales amounted to nearly $16 billion. The EMA's current estimate for Blu-ray is sales of $9.5 billion in 2012, when they are predicting it will account for higher sales than DVD.

Total spending for all home video, including both sales and rental of all formats was down slightly from 2006, but the news was much better for the gaming market. In stark contrast to DVD and other home video formats, spending for games saw a serious increase of 34% from 2006.

So what does all this tell us? For starters it seems that lower DVD sales don't mean less entertainment spending so much as a new focus on games. Based on recent sales figures from Best Buy that trend appears to be continuing in 2008.

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23 user comments

124.6.2008 14:46

Well DUH - of course BluRay sales weren't impressive in 2007.

In 2007 HD DVD was still alive and we had this thing called the Format War.

224.6.2008 14:59

Here's the original article:

Study: Blu-ray Sales to Pass DVD By 2012

Quote:
Washington, D.C. (June 24, 2008) -- A new study forecasts that Blu-ray high-def disc sales will surpass standard-def DVDs by the year 2012.

The Entertainment Merchants Association, a non-profit trade group, predicts that Blu-ray disc sales will reach $9.5 billion in 2012, up from $260 million in 2007.

The group adds that all home video spending will increase to $25.6 billion in that year, compared to $24 billion in 2007. The rise will be boosted by the growth of Blu-ray and the video game industry.

324.6.2008 16:58
Craphe
Inactive

I think, that most of the people will skip Blu-ray-format.
It's just not enough big jump, compared to Dvd.
Maybe somebody will announce some new format in year or two?

424.6.2008 17:21

New format = much much more expensive.

In 2 years we'll see bluray players for less than $100 and movies for $15. More people will buy bluray.

524.6.2008 17:42

Same thing that happened when DVD was introduced... I do have a PS3 for games only at the moment, but I never considered it as a Blu-Ray player. That part is considered a bonus at the moment, and will save me the trouble of having to buy a player in the future. Now as soon as I get a decent HDTV (yes, I really don't have an HDTV compliant TV yet) I'll move straight to buying BD movies.



624.6.2008 17:57
Craphe
Inactive

Originally posted by HDNow:
New format = much much more expensive.

In 2 years we'll see bluray players for less than $100 and movies for $15. More people will buy bluray.
I don't see that happening.

Quote:
Same thing that happened when DVD was introduced... I do have a PS3 for games only at the moment, but I never considered it as a Blu-Ray player. That part is considered a bonus at the moment, and will save me the trouble of having to buy a player in the future. Now as soon as I get a decent HDTV (yes, I really don't have an HDTV compliant TV yet) I'll move straight to buying BD movies.

It's different with Ps3, than it was with the Ps2, people bought it cos it had Dvd-player. And also Ps3 sales are way behind Ps2 sales, wich boosted popular Dvd even more. Most of the people buying Bluray movies are Ps3 owners.

724.6.2008 18:40

Originally posted by Craphe:
I don't see that happening.
We already have sub $300 models for sale. We also saw the father's day Walmart special which had the Magnavox for under $200. By this holiday season we should see more sub $200 deals. By next year sub $100 deals could be a reality especially once the Chinese manufacturers start to crank up production.

I think the article's predictions are spot on.

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824.6.2008 18:43

I'm really not in the mood to get involved in a heated discussion, certanly it's not my intent, but i'll like to point that any prediction, analysis or study that makes reference to gross sales numbers only, is inacurate since it depends on the product's prices and rate of consumption.

This same case applies when comparing high U.S. theater box office gross numbers, for movies released in recent years, against similar gross numbers for movies released decades ago. If you account that today a summer movie is released at 4,000 theaters, with an average US$7 ticket price, certanly theaters in the late 70's, 80's and 90's sold a lot more tickets, to achieve similar U.S. gross numbers than movies today, when in the late 70's and early 80's a summer movie was released at 1,000 theaters, with an average US$2-3 ticket price, or up to 3,000 theaters with an average US$5 ticket price in the 90's.

During 2007, HD discs accounted for barely over US$260 million in sales, and standard DVD sales amounted to nearly US$16 billion, yet an accurate analysis would be that 6.7 million HD discs (HD-DVD and Blu-ray) were sold, if you consider both gross sales and discs sold, this would result in an average US$38 per disc, yet 1.6 billion DVD discs were sold, which again results in an average US$10 per disc, both cases in the U.S. during 2007.

Therefore when making an analysis solely on U.S. gross sales numbers, without considering how many discs (or movie tickets) were sold, and the average prices in which they were sold, then it's an inaccurate analysis which leads to a misleading interpretation.

After all it's just a prediction that it may or may not occur, since nobody can foresee how much a Blu-ray or DVD disc will cost, and how many Blu-ray and DVD discs will be sold by 2012, or how will the growth of online movie services will influence the final result, but at least they were wise enough, not to make absurd predictions for 2009 like others did.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 24 Jun 2008 @ 19:23

924.6.2008 22:13

If blu-ray haters were weary donkeys who didn't own an HD compliant set.. then this post would be the carrot at the end of the stick leading it to a glorious anti-change debate.

.. normally these debates involve an elephant.. if you get the political reference.


I think that this article lacks a KEY element in its predictions. If one doesnt have an HD set.. then why would you even want Blu-ray. I happen to enjoy Blu-ray movies for the visuals and the audio as well.. but if it wasnt for the benefit of a 1080p set, it would mean jack S#!t. Until these sets become available (price-wise) to more people in a very tight economical situation given petrol costs.

Others will try and argue with me in defense of the article for some reason.. they will claim that their DVD-up conversion is "good enough for them", and maybe it is. But the issue for me is that its not "BETTER".. its not even "as good" in reality and that can't be argued on any level. Its not like you can upscale the audio accurately. If you can afford the HDTV right now you should be able to afford a Blu-ray player to take advantage of your set's abilities... isn't that why you bought the set to begin with anyway? I understand that there are a few people who would rather commit seppuku than buy a product affiliated with sony *NOBRAINER* but unless you are able to obtain videos online with the same resolution without dealing with rediculous download times.... you are lying to yourself if you think upscaling is "high def".

1025.6.2008 1:37

Ya theres a reason BR haters are dismissive BR has had lil traction on the DVD market, now with that said it should BUT it needs to lower prices fast in order to ensure itself the replacement of BR.

Some lets see how bad BR is doing mid 09 because we whip it out and take a leak on it, the up conversion market will be getting a super boost from cell based tech that can manage to make DVD9 look almost like HD and there is a chance the public will take to it over buying new films.

1125.6.2008 8:22

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Some lets see how bad BR is doing mid 09 because we whip it out and take a leak on it, the up conversion market will be getting a super boost from cell based tech that can manage to make DVD9 look almost like HD and there is a chance the public will take to it over buying new films.
Zippy: The Toshiba Qosimo laptop with the Cell based Spurs engine co-processor will be available in Japan next month - for a measly $2,700.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...io-but-why.html

Quote:
The SpursEngine runs at 1.5GHz and draws between 10 and 20 watts of power. Obviously, you'll want to be plugged into the wall when you fire up the one or two Toshiba-authored Windows Vista apps that can actually take advantage of the SpursEngine. Toshiba's chip needs its own, dedicated pool of RDRAM, which just adds to the device's total cost, footprint, and power draw.

1225.6.2008 10:53

I'm sure no one wants to jump into a format without it being totally stable. I feel bad for all of those HD DVD people that invested in the format. Now they are SOL. Bring the cost down and maybe we will see some people making the switch.

Im totally happy with my 5.1 DVD upconvert, especially since my tv is a Sharp 37" LCD 800:1 Contrast ratio, bluray will not look any better.

1325.6.2008 13:32

Originally posted by juankerr:
Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Some lets see how bad BR is doing mid 09 because we whip it out and take a leak on it, the up conversion market will be getting a super boost from cell based tech that can manage to make DVD9 look almost like HD and there is a chance the public will take to it over buying new films.
Zippy: The Toshiba Qosimo laptop with the Cell based Spurs engine co-processor will be available in Japan next month - for a measly $2,700.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...io-but-why.html

Quote:
The SpursEngine runs at 1.5GHz and draws between 10 and 20 watts of power. Obviously, you'll want to be plugged into the wall when you fire up the one or two Toshiba-authored Windows Vista apps that can actually take advantage of the SpursEngine. Toshiba's chip needs its own, dedicated pool of RDRAM, which just adds to the device's total cost, footprint, and power draw.

read about that, plus you have other super convert efforts, I think it will be in vain unless BR still has 200+ players by 010, all in all BR aint half bad just needs lower prices.
-----------------------
All
BTW was it games or dvds that make retailers more money I forget?

Copyright infringement is nothing more than civil disobedience to a bad set of laws. Lets renegotiate them.

---
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1425.6.2008 13:50

I'm not a Blu-Ray hater, but I don't think the format war is over per say. Yes HD-DVD is dead. But that's not the only "format" to watch a movie on. Is it the best, yes the price says that. But with the way the technoligy industry is changing there are so many ways to watch a movie. DVD, Blu-ray, internet, and I think there's anouther one out there.
Some people aren't jumping on the Blu-Ray band wagon for more than just one reason. For me
#1 I honestly believe we'll see anouther format besides Blu-ray before 2012 that will be close to equal.
#2 The cost of players
#3 The cost of discs
#4 The cost of upgrading my whole system
#5 For me DVD works perfectly
Now I know alot of yall are gonna jump by rear and critize most of those points, and have some arguement as to why I'm an idiot, or I refuse change or some other hateful crud, but hay those are the facts, as they sit in my eyes.
Oh and I also think it's funny to see such a large rise in the gaming industry. You think the reason movie media sales are down is possibly because the gaming industry is up. Gotta remember, I was one of those kids who had pong, track and ball, Atari, Super Nintendo, Dream Something??, Sega genisus, PS, Xbox, then a 360 (think I got them all)
And now I'm 28, still gaming, you think maybe I'd like to interact with what I'm watching or maybe movies are a priority as it was for may parents.
Or how about the fact that the movies are all just remakes (crappy remakes) of TV shows and old movies. I mean comon from what I hear we got The A-Team, Macgyver, and Magnmum PI in the works for a movie.
No creativity...... Kinda sounds like anouther media industry thats suffering.... any guesses what industry????????? Thats right 10 points to the fat man in the corner that kinda looks a lil creapy.......The music industry.
Ok done for now
LD

1525.6.2008 13:58

lawndog
the trouble is cost and the money needed to buy off hollywood because of these 2 things BR is set in stone the next 10 years which just happens to be how long DVD should be around, I can easily see DVD having the lower end BR having the mid to high end, altho the manufactures could easily make deals and stop producing DVD players.

The games just got interesting yet. ^^

1625.6.2008 14:12

Dvd is just fine for me.

1725.6.2008 14:29

speaking of DVD anyone wonder if they are inflating the cost of blank DVD9s any to aid BR some?

1825.6.2008 14:36

Far as I know everything is inflating in price right now. :)

1925.6.2008 14:50

Originally posted by area_51:
Far as I know everything is inflating in price right now. :)
LOL
well blank DVD9s hadn't come down much in price since the format war begin.

just wondering if it costs that much to make them since BR blanks have had a steady decrease in their rate.

2025.6.2008 15:48

Quote:
Originally posted by area_51:
Far as I know everything is inflating in price right now. :)
LOL
well blank DVD9s hadn't come down much in price since the format war begin.

just wondering if it costs that much to make them since BR blanks have had a steady decrease in their rate.
Actually Zippy I thought the same thing recently. I had thought it was due to the rising cost of petroleum and that had an effect on plastics.. maybe I heard wrong.

2125.6.2008 16:00

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by area_51:
Far as I know everything is inflating in price right now. :)
LOL
well blank DVD9s hadn't come down much in price since the format war begin.

just wondering if it costs that much to make them since BR blanks have had a steady decrease in their rate.
Actually Zippy I thought the same thing recently. I had thought it was due to the rising cost of petroleum and that had an effect on plastics.. maybe I heard wrong.
the industry works for tis own interests mafia analogies are not to far fetched, however as much as a stretch as conspiracy theories are whats the real deal here I know someone have a better informed clue than someone who has his head up his ass and with detachable eyeballs :P

2226.6.2008 15:07
Craphe
Inactive

Originally posted by Hunt720:


I think that this article lacks a KEY element in its predictions. If one doesnt have an HD set.. then why would you even want Blu-ray. I happen to enjoy Blu-ray movies for the visuals and the audio as well.. but if it wasnt for the benefit of a 1080p set, it would mean jack S#!t. Until these sets become available (price-wise) to more people in a very tight economical situation given petrol costs.

I just bought, in 2005 2400€ receiver and it's really good. And now, if would REALLY benefit from HD-sound, I would have to buy 10 000€ Pre amp + Amp. The thing is, low cost hifi solutions won't benefit from HD-sound, or maybe merely. And I don't want to buy "new HD-capable amplifier", cos it won't do any good for me.

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2328.6.2008 7:15

I would put any money on BluRay players becoming cheap in the near future, when normal dvd players first came out I paid 230 for mine (approx $458) and within no time at all, once the format took off, they where very cheap.

It will be the same with BD players, as the demand increases, and production cost decreases, so does the price, but it might take a bit longer, as Craphe pointed out, most people who buy BD movies are gonna be PS3 owners, and that does not surprise me at all, why spend a load of money on a standalone BD player when the ps3 is only a bit more and has so much more capabilities.

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