AfterDawn: Tech news

Blu-ray to outsell DVD by 2011, says Sony Pictures

Written by Andre Yoskowitz (Google+) @ 02 Aug 2008 12:50 User comments (66)

Blu-ray to outsell DVD by 2011, says Sony Pictures Citing the latest market reports available, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment Asia Pacific vice president Tim Meade has confided that the company believes sales of Blu-ray Discs will beat out that of standard definition DVDs by the year 2011.
According to the market reports, global sales value of BD movies will rise from 9 percent at the end of 2007 to about 25 percent of all market share by the end of this year, and that the number was already at about 20 percent as of July. This could however, be due only to the expensive suggested retail of most Blu-ray titles.

In addition, the global sales of BD players (I'm not sure if PS3s are included in Meade's figures) in proportion to all video players, will rise to 15 percent from 7 percent year-on-year. Meade also noted that for the first half of 2008, sales volume of BD players increased 400 percent in the US and an astonishing 600 percent in Europe.

As a ratio, Meade says DVDs will hold a 75:25 percent lead over their HD counterparts by the end of 2008 and a 60:40 lead by the end of 2010 before losing out in 2011 by a margin that could be as small as 48:52.

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66 user comments

12.8.2008 12:59

It's possible... I guess... It depends on the price. A BD movie is not that much better than DVD in quality. Unless if you spend $5000 on a decent audio system, the sound difference will not matter, so I don't know.

If the players get competitive in pricing (like around $200), and movies are $20 when released, then there is a good chance. Otherwise, people may not "buy" into BD.

22.8.2008 13:33

I doubt it mainly due to BR player price and saturation, 2013-15 much more likely.

Unless you see 150$ and lower BR players before the end of 2010 its just not going to happen.

32.8.2008 13:41

Don't think it is possible by 2011

42.8.2008 13:46

I don't see blu-ray as the "Next big thing" any how. I believe DVD will have to compete with "downloading content", (speaking of sales only)

52.8.2008 14:40

If they find a way to put in every home an HD-tv and a BD player or a ps3 it might.

62.8.2008 14:41

"bart simpson laugh" The masses wont adopt till prices fall under $100 Dvd-up convert is great quality as is, no need to get that DRM infection.

72.8.2008 14:43

Sony are hedging their bets on everything staying the same between now and three years time. Given how volatile the economic and technological situations have proven to be over the last few years, I'd say that's a pretty big gamble.

82.8.2008 14:57

hmmm...so says Sony...


I LOVE using my PS3 to play all the movies I have on it's HD.

92.8.2008 15:30
lynchGOP
Inactive

Yeah, right!! Like that's just going to happen in a bit over 2 years. Blu-ray, I PREDICT, will be phasing out about that time with other HD media format (flash, holographic, download). DVD is here to stay. I'm not going BD unless I can get a player for less than a 100 bucks.


As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!! I don't see any reason why Sony would change their construction format for the PS3

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 02 Aug 2008 @ 15:32

102.8.2008 16:41

Originally posted by lynchGOP:
Yeah, right!! Like that's just going to happen in a bit over 2 years. Blu-ray, I PREDICT, will be phasing out about that time with other HD media format (flash, holographic, download). DVD is here to stay. I'm not going BD unless I can get a player for less than a 100 bucks.


As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!! I don't see any reason why Sony would change their construction format for the PS3
PS2 garbage? what have you been smoking

112.8.2008 17:11

Cmon Sony you got to drop the price of your hardware before you can even think about taking on SD-DVD sells.First thing first.

122.8.2008 17:12

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
I doubt it mainly due to BR player price and saturation, 2013-15 much more likely.

Unless you see 150$ and lower BR players before the end of 2010 its just not going to happen.
EXACTLY!

132.8.2008 18:16

I can understand sony wanting/needing blu-ray to overtake dvd... but these numbers seem just a little exaggerated. 20% of total market share last month? and passing the 50% mark in 2 to 3 years?

dvd's roots are deep and prices are a fraction of blu-ray. Also because dvd technology is old and widespread it depreciates much more quickly. Old and used dvd's can be found practically everywhere for next to nothing and the same can be said for the players.

blu-ray has a huge hill to climb in order to justify a lifespan the same length as dvd. A lot of things have to come together at just the right time for that to happen. sony makes it sound like it's already an inevitability, but in reality it's a very long complicated process that leaves much to chance.

142.8.2008 20:58

When I can find a BD player under $100. When I can buy BD's for around the same price as DVDs now. When I get an HDTV. When I get a amazing sound system. When BD burn at more than 2x. When BD burners are under $100. I can go on and on. Sony has to think optimistic. Something of their products have to go good for once. PS3 lost over $3 billion. PSP was a failure compared to DS. BD is their last hope.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 02 Aug 2008 @ 20:59

152.8.2008 21:55

Quote:
Originally posted by lynchGOP:
Yeah, right!! Like that's just going to happen in a bit over 2 years. Blu-ray, I PREDICT, will be phasing out about that time with other HD media format (flash, holographic, download). DVD is here to stay. I'm not going BD unless I can get a player for less than a 100 bucks.


As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!! I don't see any reason why Sony would change their construction format for the PS3
PS2 garbage? what have you been smoking
He hasn't been smoking anything, it was a good system with good games, but they were built terribly, so many of them had the DRE problem I have gone through 4 fat ones myself they are just cheap and unreliable

162.8.2008 22:15

Yeah I can see all our people, with the money they're saving on $4/gal gas here, will put all that EXTRA money into BluRay discs and players. Arrogance to the extreme. All those ps3s are in the kid's bedrooms. And they pirate all they can and Mom and Dad think SD DVD looks just fine with their tired eyes. $ony $ucks and I try not to buy anything they make.

172.8.2008 22:34
llongtheD
Inactive

I recently bought a nice upconverting dvd player, and it looks fantastic on my HD tv. It was much cheaper than re-purchasing my entire dvd collection, on DRM-ray. I think Sony's reaching a bit here, unless like other posters have noted, drmray can be price competitive with good old DVD.

183.8.2008 0:24

Quote:
According to the market reports, global sales of BD movies will rise from 9 percent at the end of 2007 to about 25 percent of all market share by the end of this year, and that the number was already at about 20 percent as of July.

I'd like to know what periods of time he's actually talking about exactly. According to the EMA (Entertainment Merchants Association) DVD enjoyed more than a 50:1 advantage over Blu-ray and HD DVD combined in 2007. Since Blu-ray has been far more successful in the US than anywhere else, with the possible exception of Japan, I'd say that means it was less than 1% of total sales for the year.

This brings me to 2 points. To begin with his numbers are meaningless unless he decides to elaborate on what period of time at the end of the year he's talking about. Are we talking about the month of December? Maybe it's the last two weeks of the year. Whenever it is you can be sure the period last year was one in which there were huge sales on Blu-ray due to competition with HD DVD.

The other thing isn't so much a conclusion as a question. If Blu-ray is doing so well why does he have to use misleading figures to prove it?

193.8.2008 0:56
llongtheD
Inactive

The other thing isn't so much a conclusion as a question. If Blu-ray is doing so well why does he have to use misleading figures to prove it?


Thats the way salesman work. They have to make everyone believe they're missing the boat if they don't grab one of these bluray players NOW! Its the next big thing you know, lol. The sales teams at these company's have just gotten more crafty at inserting this propaganda into the media like its "News." You believe the News don't you? THEY said it, so it MUST be true.

I view the media this way; The media is an endless riverbank full of gravel bullshit, that every once in a while, you find an agate of truth in.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 03 Aug 2008 @ 1:11

If your fish seems sick, put it back in the water.

203.8.2008 1:05

its possible. but i doubt it. anything can happen in 3 years.

a newer format?

cheaper players?

change from physical media to download only?

but since DVD is still rather cheap and popular. i just dont forsee bluray winning any serious battles.

213.8.2008 1:19

Originally posted by vurbal:
According to the EMA (Entertainment Merchants Association) DVD enjoyed more than a 50:1 advantage over Blu-ray and HD DVD combined in 2007.
vurbal: The funny thing is that in the original article quoted in your link the EMA is predicting that BluRay will surpass DVD in 2012:

Study: Blu-ray Sales to Pass DVD By 2012

Quote:
Washington, D.C. (June 24, 2008) -- A new study forecasts that Blu-ray high-def disc sales will surpass standard-def DVDs by the year 2012.

The Entertainment Merchants Association, a non-profit trade group, predicts that Blu-ray disc sales will reach $9.5 billion in 2012, up from $260 million in 2007.

The group adds that all home video spending will increase to $25.6 billion in that year, compared to $24 billion in 2007. The rise will be boosted by the growth of Blu-ray and the video game industry.
Maybe his projections are based on the EMA study itself.

223.8.2008 2:15

yea i agree with most, blu-ray will replace DVD's as long as

1.price dramatically drops
2.burning speed increase
3.everybody gets an HDTV

i mean, when DVD's came out, how much were they? ALOT. and look at them now. theyre dirt cheap, $30 for a pack of 100? dvd players can be as cheap as $20?

233.8.2008 2:31

Originally posted by DoomLight:
its possible. but i doubt it. anything can happen in 3 years.

a newer format?

cheaper players?

change from physical media to download only?

but since DVD is still rather cheap and popular. i just dont forsee bluray winning any serious battles.
ya...digi downloads to replace physical media...try 10+ years not 3...., BR needs to be cheap in both film and player to really get anywhere.

243.8.2008 3:21

Originally posted by juankerr:
Originally posted by vurbal:
According to the EMA (Entertainment Merchants Association) DVD enjoyed more than a 50:1 advantage over Blu-ray and HD DVD combined in 2007.
vurbal: The funny thing is that in the original article quoted in your link the EMA is predicting that BluRay will surpass DVD in 2012:

Study: Blu-ray Sales to Pass DVD By 2012

Quote:
Washington, D.C. (June 24, 2008) -- A new study forecasts that Blu-ray high-def disc sales will surpass standard-def DVDs by the year 2012.

The Entertainment Merchants Association, a non-profit trade group, predicts that Blu-ray disc sales will reach $9.5 billion in 2012, up from $260 million in 2007.

The group adds that all home video spending will increase to $25.6 billion in that year, compared to $24 billion in 2007. The rise will be boosted by the growth of Blu-ray and the video game industry.
Maybe his projections are based on the EMA study itself.

The EMA's so-called study was simply analysis of member sales from the previous year, and the opinions of analysts. It's a report they release annually. My questions about Sony's numbers has nothing to do with those predictions. They can't predict the future any more than you or I can. Do you suppose the EMA was predicting in last year's report that Blu-ray player sales would plummet if HD DVD disappeared? Of course not. And yet that's exactly what happened. I can tell you for a fact that this time last year everyone was predicting that market would take off immediately if one format or the other was gone. So if they couldn't get that right what makes this year's guesses more reliable?

Regardless of that my questions stand. What period of last year, was he talking about that Blu-ray accounted for 9% of home video sales? And why is that particular period more important than the rest of the year? And as long as we're asking questions why is anything about last year relevant for predicting the future? Sales of Blu-ray and HD DVD were both based primarily on promotions that ended as soon as Toshiba threw in the towel earlier this year.

Rich Fiscus
@Vurbal on Twitter
AfterDawn Staff Writer

253.8.2008 3:31

Quote:
I can tell you for a fact that this time last year everyone was predicting that market would take off immediately if one format or the other was gone. So if they couldn't get that right what makes this year's guesses more reliable?


They got a new crystal ball that wasn't biased ?

(but really folks, that doesn't exist)

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition


263.8.2008 8:18

Originally posted by vurbal:
Regardless of that my questions stand. What period of last year, was he talking about that Blu-ray accounted for 9% of home video sales?
The 9% number for last year is obviously flat-out wrong or a misquote. Since April of this year, Nielsen's tracking of the weekely sales numbers have shown Bluray taking 5 - 12% of DVD of the Top 20 titles.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=34675&page=137

There is no way BluRay could have taken 9% last year even if you combined it with HD DVD's numbers.

273.8.2008 8:26
13thHouR
Inactive

didn't they predict flying cars and hover boards by 2010?

personally i predict that electric and gas will escalate to prices that are virtually unreachable by most people other than the super rich and the start of this was British gas rising costs last week by 35%, food is going to become a luxury item other than milk and bread that will cost 10 a loaf/pint. As the oil fails to meet demand how are we going to feed the 5.7 billion already on the planet which is rising at an alarming rate each year, and will be around 10billion by 2012, we will frequently be having shut downs of the power grids because of the shortages of oil.

hey but regardless of the world crisis, sony will sell blu-ray's. Tim Meade is a complete tool trying to encourage ppl to purchase the format so sony can sit back and reap the benefits of all their patents.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 03 Aug 2008 @ 8:30

283.8.2008 9:00

Im not sure if it will happen that fast. I Consider myself to be in the minority of most of the people I know. Where Im an HD junkie, I have an SD TV upstairs and an HD TV downstairs, with a Dish DVR on each. I will only record HD content on the one downstairs, then I will watch and erase. Now I have about 600 or so movies on SD and about 65 or so on Blu-Ray my goal is to have 100 or more by years end. I will slowly replace my collection with all Blu. Like I said im an HD junkie. All I buy now is Blu-Ray for movies & TV shows unless the TV show is not out on Blu then I will buy the SD version. As far as downloading HD content goes I would rather have the physical disk. My Xbox live has downloadable movies but if you watch it and want to keep it sooner of later your hard drive will fill up. I myself won't be going the download way ever if possible.

293.8.2008 17:18
drach
Inactive

Quote:
As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!!
I have had my PS2 since 2002 and although it has been dropped a couple times and gets used almost daily, it still works like a charm, and i have never even needed to clean the lens.

Quote:
didn't they predict flying cars and hover boards by 2010?
It was by 2015, and I think that was in Back To The Future.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 03 Aug 2008 @ 17:23

305.8.2008 0:41

Sounds like a load of crap to me. Until Sony does something about the steep prices I'm not touching that technology.

315.8.2008 0:46

Quote:
Quote:
As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!!
I have had my PS2 since 2002 and although it has been dropped a couple times and gets used almost daily, it still works like a charm, and i have never even needed to clean the lens.

Quote:
didn't they predict flying cars and hover boards by 2010?
It was by 2015, and I think that was in Back To The Future.
the PS2 had about 13 revisions minus the slim drive and 2-4 of them had notable issues with the lens, the Xbox had some notable issues with over heating and the easy break oven known as the 360 needs no introduction.

325.8.2008 0:47

DVD is fine for me.

335.8.2008 0:51
varnull
Inactive

I have a funny feeling he's talking about the period when people were getting a ps3 with a voucher for a free blu film.. and counting total units shifted, not actual priced retail shelf sales.

oooo.. look.. another sony failed media format.. http://home.claranet.nl/users/pb0aia/cm/elcaset/index.html

Just an aside, and generally agreeing with some of the comments from our self proclaimed HD addict..

The owner of our local shopping center (mall if you will) returned the last Bourne film to us because unknown to us it was a blu disk.. and if a multi-millionaire mall owner hasn't gone HD then there is very little hope for it outside those showoffs who just like to convince themselves (they can't convince us.. we have seen these things and decided the improvement, if any, isn't worth the massive expense) they are getting something better than the rest of us... Kings new clothes?

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 05 Aug 2008 @ 1:00

345.8.2008 10:14
susieqbbb
Inactive

Cool but one problem..

If blu-ray is doing so good how come i see ton's of blu-ray movies on sale and no players on sale kinda fishy don't you think.

Not really in a big hurry to spend 400.00 for a blu-ray player.

355.8.2008 10:21

Originally posted by varnull:
I have a funny feeling he's talking about the period when people were getting a ps3 with a voucher for a free blu film.. and counting total units shifted, not actual priced retail shelf sales.

I thought about that, and while I don't have the exact figures I'm not sure that would even be enough. Since I don't know for sure I'm a little hesitant to speculate. But what the hell. If Sony can twist the statistics to suit their needs its only fair to reinterpret them in a way that makes sense to me.

I'm tempted to say it's more than the giveaway discs, but let's not forget that's only one way Blu-ray was being subsidized. The manufacturing process was (and as far as I know still is) being subsidized by Sony. So maybe 9% is figured by adding the subsidy back into the retail value. Or perhaps there was a week or 2 at Christmas time that the sales of PS3s was significant enough to account for 9% in giveaways alone.

In either case I'm satisfied to simply call BS on Meade's figures unless someone at Sony decides to clarify them. At best they're a misleading and inaccurate picture of actual sales and short term sales goals. He knows perfectly well Blu-ray didn't account for 9% of consumer home video spending for any period of time last year and he can't possibly be stupid enough to believe it will account for 25% during any period this year.

To quote someone far smarter than I, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics." You can decide for yourself which category this falls into.

365.8.2008 10:30

Originally posted by susieqbbb:
Cool but one problem..

If blu-ray is doing so good how come i see ton's of blu-ray movies on sale and no players on sale kinda fishy don't you think.

Not really in a big hurry to spend 400.00 for a blu-ray player.
For the latest hardware deals and special pricing, watch these threads:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=937817&page=133
http://forums.highdefdigest.com/forumdisplay.php?f=66

For example, the newly released BDP-S350 from Sony is now $363.88 at amazon. It was briefly at $334 and was #1 on the DVD player list.

This may not be at your pricing sweet spot yet but I'd watch these threads closely until you see a deal that's acceptable to you. No need to rush.

375.8.2008 20:48

Funny how SONY paid MILLIONS of dollars to WARNER Bros. to be exclusively BLURAY, and that was the final blow to HD-DVD and HD movies, Sony, the cocksuckers, are now slow in getting the BLURAY format out to stores, now the rental places are wanting more money because we were FORCED to have BLURAY crammed down our throats. Can we spell MONOPOLY?
It is like payola. Racketeering of the highest sense. HD would be a nice choice oin the field. At least a competitor.

385.8.2008 22:09

Originally posted by eatsushi:
For example, the newly released BDP-S350 from Sony is now $363.88 at amazon. It was briefly at $334 and was #1 on the DVD player list.
The inexpensive players are coming:

NEC Chip Will Shrink Blu-ray Players' Size, Costs

Quote:
Blu-ray players are getting big in terms of popularity -- and fortunately, they're going to get smaller in size thanks to a new chip.

NEC Electronics on Monday announced that it has fitted the major functions of Blu-ray -- including analog-to-digital conversion, HDMI output, and sound encoding/decoding -- onto one chip called the EMMA 3PF. The chip, to begin shipping September, will significantly reduce the amount of physical space required to run Blu-ray, and it will cut overall costs of Blu-ray devices as well.

The new chip also features a multicore CPU (in nerd speak, a 64-bit 655DMIPS VR5500 CPU application processor) that will improve Blu-ray players' startup and operation speeds.

397.8.2008 0:02

VHS had some deep roots also. I had a major collection of Disney VHS. I was not intending to change all those over to dvd. Then, I thought about it and the life span of a dvd being so much better than tapes; I did it. Now they are going blu-ray... because it's so much better. It just seems to me that if they can show you blu-ray features on dvd...why didn't they just put it on dvd in the first place? I am just not going to change over my whole collection again so someone can come up with something else in 20 years.
PS: My grandchildren are still enjoying those VHS tapes.

407.8.2008 0:03

Why is there so much ignorance and bull shit whenever a blu ray, hell any Sony article comes up on here? Seriously people.

417.8.2008 0:13

Originally posted by wetsparks:
Why is there so much ignorance and bull shit whenever a blu ray, hell any Sony article comes up on here? Seriously people.
Ya BR is here to stay at least for the next 5 years, but it's hard to doubt it will replace DVD in time, in fact by 013 it should replace DVD unless something big in physical media happens..
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 07 Aug 2008 @ 0:14

427.8.2008 0:38

The change from VHS to DVD was worth it, why cause it was a huge noticable change, SD to bruray absolutly not, especilly with the upconverted players not even worth a discussion, like I said many times before, unless your gonna buy a set 40 inch and over and even than its only a slight improvment to run bluray, and to spend all that extra mony for that small difference not worth it all.

And as far as this bluray add, yeah right I got some great bargains to offer on waterfront properties in the desert.

437.8.2008 0:43

Originally posted by FredBun:
The change from VHS to DVD was worth it, why cause it was a huge noticable change, SD to bruray absolutly not, especilly with the upconverted players not even worth a discussion, like I said many times before, unless your gonna buy a set 40 inch and over and even than its only a slight improvment to run bluray, and to spend all that extra mony for that small difference not worth it all.

And as far as this bluray add, yeah right I got some great bargains to offer on waterfront properties in the desert.
I am sorry but in 5 years time 1080 tvs will be about 5-6$ an inch, BR players under 100$, there is no way they will not phaze out DVD, all it will take is most of hollywood to not make films on DFVD and that will push the whole amrket to it leaving a few left overs with DVD because its cheaper to press and make.

447.8.2008 0:54

It is in their best interest to phase out dvd. They have pretty much all ready phased out SD TVs, they will do the same with dvd. And until we have TVs that are the size of the entire wall and the screen is part of the paint on the wall, we won't be needing something better as 1080p doesn't give you the stretched look on a big screen. I could see them trying to push DD as it gives them more profit, but people like to own the disc, not just a bock on their hard drive.

457.8.2008 0:59

Originally posted by wetsparks:
It is in their best interest to phase out dvd. They have pretty much all ready phased out SD TVs, they will do the same with dvd. And until we have TVs that are the size of the entire wall and the screen is part of the paint on the wall, we won't be needing something better as 1080p doesn't give you the stretched look on a big screen. I could see them trying to push DD as it gives them more profit, but people like to own the disc, not just a bock on their hard drive.
For DD to work you are going to need every house with broadband of 800KBPS or higher, without that DD just aint going to replace physical media.

467.8.2008 1:54

Nope, I still disagree fellas, I dont care about what stats say anymore, I go by what I see and hear in the trenches, and that means 90% of the regulars out there are not interested in bluray, most people will not have sets over 40 inches, most people will not rebuild another dvd library for that small amount of viewing pleasure, I do not see bluray players selling under a hundred bucks anytime soon, so on and so on, sorry guys, I dont buy it, and most people wont either.

477.8.2008 2:02

Originally posted by FredBun:
Nope, I still disagree fellas, I dont care about what stats say anymore, I go by what I see and hear in the trenches, and that means 90% of the regulars out there are not interested in bluray, most people will not have sets over 40 inches, most people will not rebuild another dvd library for that small amount of viewing pleasure, I do not see bluray players selling under a hundred bucks anytime soon, so on and so on, sorry guys, I dont buy it, and most people wont either.
In 5 years when its the only thing being sold it will be the only thing being bought.... currently there is nothing that can defeat BR at half its current price as its sold now and it will meet that price in under 3 years.

487.8.2008 2:07

I know we can go on and on about this, just for the sake of a friendly argument, and I've done this before as strange as it might seem, I'm no techie far from it, but like I said I deal with what I hear and see in the trenches, that after 3 years time if we still have a forum like this, I will love to re-visit this conversation.

497.8.2008 2:12

Originally posted by FredBun:
I know we can go on and on about this, just for the sake of a friendly argument, and I've done this before as strange as it might seem, I'm no techie far from it, but like I said I deal with what I hear and see in the trenches, that after 3 years time if we still have a forum like this, I will love to re-visit this conversation.
Well the industry moves by its own means and is able to lead the woolie masses by price, so unless something better comes along DVD is on its way out in Tminus 5-6 years.

507.8.2008 2:35
varnull
Inactive

Odd then how I can go down my local high street and buy a newly manufactured VHS machine, considering those were "phased out" 5 years ago.

517.8.2008 2:50

Originally posted by FredBun:
I know we can go on and on about this, just for the sake of a friendly argument, and I've done this before as strange as it might seem, I'm no techie far from it, but like I said I deal with what I hear and see in the trenches, that after 3 years time if we still have a forum like this, I will love to re-visit this conversation.
The only problem with what you are saying is you are severely limited in who you talk to. Say you work at a Best Buy and talk to a couple hundred people a day. You will talk to a lot of people, but for no more than 5 minutes. You don't know if the reason they say they aren't interested in monetary, maybe they are work-a-holics and not interested in TV, not interested in movies, etc. Maybe you just have a desk job somewhere, you would just talk to the same 20-30 people every day. Either way, it isn't enough to judge by.

527.8.2008 3:13

No doubt it's in the best interest of Sony that BD could surpass DVD eventually, when their company's future depends on it, but nobody can accurately predict that will actually happen, after all it's a prediction, not a fact. It's going to take much longer than a couple of years, for Blu-ray to reach worldwide masses so it could surpass DVD sales, and for BD's hardware prices around the world to be as inexpensive as DVD currently is.

Nobody knows for sure if along the way other formats and media will raise in popularity and acceptance among consumers, but movie studios and manufactures support BD not because it's the best option, but rather because currently movies on optical discs are cheaper to manufacture than on other media like flash cards, which allows larger profits from overpriced products.

A reduction in production costs doesn't translate in prices cuts for consumers on screens, players and recorders, rather will allow manufactures to profit more on their products sold. Honestly would be absurd to believe that in a couple of years 40" screens will cost under US$300, when more likely will be priced above US$800, as manufactures have hinted that you shouldn't expect dramatic price cuts in the following years.

BD players and recorders possibly, but not for sure, could cost under US$100 by 2011-2013, but it won't matter much if by then, you can't buy BD blank discs under US$1, or if BD movies are overpriced even at rentals.

Currently you can buy worldwide a lot of catalog DVD titles for US$5-10, while those same catalog titles on BD costs US$15-20 within USA, while in the rest of the world you pay US$20-30 for those BD catalog titles.

In the case of new releases, DVD titles costs US$15-25 worldwide, while some new released BD titles may cost the same than DVD within USA, in the rest of the world consumers must pay US$25-60 for each new released BD title.

Nobody is denying that Blu-ray offers more resolution than DVD, but the bottom line is that if you use the proper equipment, and regardless of what BD backers insist to say, you can achieve superb picture results from DVD. It may not be as equal as BD, but if it's close and good enough for most of the people around the world, then so be it.

Movie studios will not stop releasing titles on DVD, even if they wanted to, because that's were they're getting their worldwide big profits, which they aren't getting from BD. Rumors of the contrary are just that... rumors.

I dislike that BD backers keep insisting that everybody should jump on the BD wagon, like we didn't have a choice... guess what? We do have a choice and we're exercising it... We choose not to be blind enough to early adopt every single new format, just because they say you should, nor to be sheep in buying corporate propaganda, patronized articles, sponsored analysis and predictions, with the sole purpose to misleading consumers that you must purchase their products.

537.8.2008 3:37

quote: The only problem with what you are saying is you are severely limited in who you talk to. Say you work at a Best Buy and talk to a couple hundred people a day. You will talk to a lot of people, but for no more than 5 minutes. You don't know if the reason they say they aren't interested in monetary, maybe they are work-a-holics and not interested in TV, not interested in movies, etc. Maybe you just have a desk job somewhere, you would just talk to the same 20-30 people every day. Either way, it isn't enough to judge by.

Sorry again, no I am not severly limited to your so called stats of me, without going into great detail which really would not matter anyway cause you will still re-argue your case and have every right to do so, I talk to people in best buy, circuit city yes, but in no means just them, I visit many blockbuster stores, computer shops, electronic stores, audio shops, unlimited amount of nieghbors and friends, my union workers at meeting which can hold several hundred people at a shot, all these are regular people, not techies, not people that must have this so called latest and best crap and have to ring thier own bell by making up stories and stats on how good this bluray crap is cause they just invested or better yet threw away there money, so yes they will loudly yell how great this stuff is and it will take over everything in due time.

What you guys forget is most of us are not that stupid, you are correct that sooner or later yes we will be forced to the change, but I do not think it will the the bluray change, in another 5 there will be something better than bluray, once these moguls realize that we are not that dumb to invest big bucks in such a minor upgrade if you want to even call it that, like I said before VHS to DVD that was a nice upgrade, this bluray crap, uh uh!

You guys can talk yourselves into this farce till your blue in the face if it makes you feel better and if it does thats great I'm happy for you, just that a bu ku amount of people do not see it that way, and wont in another 3 or 4 years, like I said before, if this topic is still around and we are all still in it, than I will gladly anounce if you guys were right or vice versa.

In the mean time lets not try and change any opinions cause niether one of us will budge anyway. And everybody knows about opinions and what they say about them lol.

547.8.2008 5:36

Originally posted by varnull:
Odd then how I can go down my local high street and buy a newly manufactured VHS machine, considering those were "phased out" 5 years ago.
ya but how many VHS movies are still made?
the point begin I belive that the industry will seek to quicken the move to BR and drop DVD as fast as they can, instead of taking a proper 10 year cycle, who knows they might not be that organized, but its just a feeling I get since BR film prices are trying to stay under 20-30.

Copyright infringement is nothing more than civil disobedience to a bad set of laws. Lets renegotiate them.

---
Check out my crappy creations
http://zippydsmlee.deviantart.com/

557.8.2008 7:59

There are 2 BluRay shelves at my Blockbuster. And hundreds of DVD shelves. When that ratio changes then they maybe will stop making DVDs but that is far into the future. I agree with FredBun change to DVD from VHS monumental. DVD to BluRay not so great. Hell, half the country or more, hasn't even got an HD TV to play one on! LOL

567.8.2008 8:12

Originally posted by garmoon:
There are 2 BluRay shelves at my Blockbuster. And hundreds of DVD shelves. When that ratio changes then they maybe will stop making DVDs but that is far into the future. I agree with FredBun change to DVD from VHS monumental. DVD to BluRay not so great. Hell, half the country or more, hasn't even got an HD TV to play one on! LOL
but price and what they are selling is th key here, in 5 years you will have under 500$ 1080 30-40 inch TVs plus under 100-200$ BR players all the corporations have to do is stop making DVDs and people will move up and they wont even know it if its cheap.

But I gotta say if BR has not made any major moves on DVD by 010......it just might take to 019....

577.8.2008 13:19

@zippyDSM

I'll believe $500 HD 30-40" when I see them but I don't believe they will ever be that cheap. They had to remake the TV world digital because they were practically giving away TVs and making minor profits. I don't think they'll make same mistake again. Besides, 5 yrs from now is the middle of 2013 hardly 2010! I hope you're right about the TV prices coming down. They're not coming down too swiftly at present tho. :)

587.8.2008 13:41

Originally posted by garmoon:
@zippyDSM

I'll believe $500 HD 30-40" when I see them but I don't believe they will ever be that cheap.
720p already here:

Dynex 32" 720p LCD for $499 at bestbuy.com:

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?...d=1194052042159

Insignia 32" 720p LCD for $547:

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?...d=1203815033908

Westinghouse 32" 720p LCD for $549:

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?...d=1202650704376

In less than 5 years 1080p 32" will be $500 or less.

597.8.2008 13:53

You failed to mention anything I would consider buying. A Real Name brand in the HD world Sony Samsung Pioneer, Panasonic etc! They are all over 1K in a 40" set. My daughter did just get a 37"Sammy LCD for $950. But all of those are also 720ps. Why would anyone buy a Bluray player and discs without a 1080p set. Hell the panny upconvert player I have does fine on my 720p sammy 40".



607.8.2008 15:55

I agree with garmoon and FredBun, no point repeating it.

It's absurd that by 2011 40" screens will cost under US$500, it simply won't happen, we could hope that but it won't be... yes, there are screens that are cheaper that others, but what's the point in investing on them, if they provide a crappy picture worthy of a VHS or VCD movie?... there's a reason why they are cheaper.

The reason why prices for BR movies are trying to stay under US$20-30, and that within USA, is because otherwise people wouldn't be buying them. If Blu-ray was indeed gaining popularity and acceptance among consumers, as they keep insisting on their corporate propaganda, patronized articles, sponsored analysis and predictions, then there will be no needed to lower their prices.

Also that's why they still charge US$15-25 for new releases on DVD, because DVD is very popular and accepted by consumers, and they have no need to sell them cheaper. I could walk into any store that sells or rents movies, and at most they will have 50 BD discs availible, but they will have thousands of DVD discs for sale or rent.

Finally the world is lightyears away from accepting Blu-ray, and if BD is not being widely accepted within USA, and it's mainly rejected by the rest of the world, then the format is doomed to became the LD of the 21st century. In the other hand DVD is well established and very popular among consumers worldwide, it's the VHS of the 21st century, and it's going to take a new revolutionaty format to displace it, but Blu-ray is not such format.

617.8.2008 17:03

Originally posted by ematrix:
I agree with garmoon and FredBun, no point repeating it.

It's absurd that by 2011 40" screens will cost under US$500, it simply won't happen, we could hope that but it won't be... yes, there are screens that are cheaper that others, but what's the point in investing on them, if they provide a crappy picture worthy of a VHS or VCD movie?... there's a reason why they are cheaper.

The reason why prices for BR movies are trying to stay under US$20-30, and that within USA, is because otherwise people wouldn't be buying them. If Blu-ray was indeed gaining popularity and acceptance among consumers, as they keep insisting on their corporate propaganda, patronized articles, sponsored analysis and predictions, then there will be no needed to lower their prices.

Also that's why they still charge US$15-25 for new releases on DVD, because DVD is very popular and accepted by consumers, and they have no need to sell them cheaper. I could walk into any store that sells or rents movies, and at most they will have 50 BD discs availible, but they will have thousands of DVD discs for sale or rent.

Finally the world is lightyears away from accepting Blu-ray, and if BD is not being widely accepted within USA, and it's mainly rejected by the rest of the world, then the format is doomed to became the LD of the 21st century. In the other hand DVD is well established and very popular among consumers worldwide, it's the VHS of the 21st century, and it's going to take a new revolutionaty format to displace it, but Blu-ray is not such format.
30-40 inchers are going for 800-2K in 3 years the bottom bands will hit 500 in 5 years most brands will be in the 500-1200 mark, and under 30 will be 300 or less.


In 5 years there's a 70%+ chance the market will be right for BR to take over for DVD, assuming BR expands its market "some" by 010-011, in 2 years time if BR has not tripled its market by then it will take to it to the mid or alter half of the 01X decade for BR to replace DVD.

What I am getting at price more than anything will help BR grow, if its cheap BR will grow well but its not going to be cheap enough to start for another 2 years.

628.8.2008 5:01
13thHouR
Inactive

Originally posted by zippyDSM:
30-40 inchers are going for 800-2K in 3 years the bottom bands will hit 500 in 5 years most brands will be in the 500-1200 mark, and under 30 will be 300 or less.

In 5 years there's a 70%+ chance the market will be right for BR to take over for DVD, assuming BR expands its market "some" by 010-011, in 2 years time if BR has not tripled its market by then it will take to it to the mid or alter half of the 01X decade for BR to replace DVD.

What I am getting at price more than anything will help BR grow, if its cheap BR will grow well but its not going to be cheap enough to start for another 2 years.
they powers that be want us to all adopt the DRM of HDMI so they can dictate to us what we are allowed to do with the signal so expect the MPAA to start releasing the big titles to blu-ray only from next year zippy. hey what a great way to sell more manufacturers products though, block all signals to normal TV's it's kinda like what they do with format shifting, every 10 years make a new format laden it with DRM then block you from transferring the media you already own to the new format, i think it's called money for old rope.......


MPAA: Don't limit our ability to close analog outputs
Quote:
The Motion Picture Association of America took its crusade for selectable output control (SOC) to the next level on Thursday, responding to critics in the FCC's proceeding on the matter. The MPAA's July 31 filing takes particular exception to suggestions that the agency lift its prohibition on SOC on a two-year trial basis, and makes it clear that the group won't take kindly to other limitations, either. If consumers want to see movies on TV earlier than they appear on DVD, the MPAA says, they had better be willing to allow movie studios to remotely shut down some cable box outputs.
No trial period

In early June the FCC granted the MPAA a proceeding on its waiver request. SOC lets video distributors close down analog outputs on broadcasts to block the so-called "analog hole" that MPAA fears can be easily accessed by movie pirates. This security will, in turn, encourage Hollywood studios to partner with cable companies and release early-run studio films to TV, with the guarantee that the movies will pass only over protected digital links such as those that use HDCP.

"The Petitioners' theatrical movies are too valuable in this early distribution window to risk their exposure to unauthorized copying," MPAA wrote to the FCC. "Distribution over insecure outputs would facilitate the illegal copying and redistribution of this high value content, causing untold damage to the DVD and other 'downstream' markets."

Now MPAA also warns that a "calendar-based restriction" on SOC would be impractical, "and fail to provide the regulatory certainty" that movie studios will need to negotiate with cable companies for the fast transfer of early run movies to TV.
Vague hysteria

Ars construed from this language the possibility that MPAA wants SOC in order to limit the future ability of consumers to copy or record early run movies when they appear on TV. I even had at it with several representatives of the trade association in a recent interview, which, not surprisingly, drew different reactions across the blogosphere.

"What the MPAA is clearly trying to do here is start releasing movies on TV before they're available on DVD," declared Techdirt's Mike Masnick in a commentary on the exchange, "but wants to do so in a way that users won't be able to record on their DVRs (though, they hardly come out and say that)."

On the other hand, Content Agenda's Paul Sweeting takes me to task for making the MPAA come off as "vaguely hysterical (or worse)." Sweeting points out that at present it's pretty difficult to make permanent copies of VOD/PPV fare. He predicts that the early HD VOD offerings that the studios would like to release will similarly come with 'copy-never' or 'display only' flags.

"The use of SOC by the studios would not deny consumers a right they presumptively have, or a capability they currently enjoy," Sweeting concludes. "The issue for the studios is whether unprotected outputs could be used to record the early-release content in ways that are not currently permitted and then use that recording as the source for additional unauthorized copies."
Uncheck our authority

MPAA's latest filing does not focus on this debate, but on the conditions that various commenters have proposed for the waiver. The trade group wrangles with two parties that express concern that the cable companies not be allowed to use SOC in an unsupervised fashion, these being The Digital Transition Licensing Administrator (DTLA) and TiVo.

DTLA helps coordinate digital copy protection standards for the so-called "5C" manufacturing group (Toshiba, Intel, Matsushita, Sony, and Hitachi). It is skeptical of the plan and warns that SOC "cannot be left to the unfettered discretion of content owners and MVPDs [cable companies]. Such unchecked authority places far too much power in the hands of content owners, to the potential detriment of all other equally-important stakeholders."

DVR maker TiVo extends this argument to propose specific limits on the waiver. The company writes that whatever new service comes out of MPAA's proposal, it should not be able to disable any protected digital outputs approved by CableLabs, the cable industry's R&D group. "Consumer electronics manufacturers such as TiVo have made significant investments and brought innovative devices to market in reliance on the standards created by CableLabs," TiVo suggests.

MPAA says that there is "no demonstrated public interest need" for this. "For the new business model the Waiver would make possible, Petitioners and MVPDs should have the flexibility to use the technologies that are best suited to serve the needs of their mutual customers, while balancing the need to protect their content," the trade association writes.

TiVo also asks that if the MPAA receives its SOC waiver, it be limited to a 120-day period "between theatrical release and home media release." No again, MPAA insists, arguing that different movies have different release patterns, based on their popularity. "There is no compelling need to establish an arbitrary, fixed window for the proposed new Services," MPAA writes. "In fact, there are compelling marketplace statistics that demonstrate such a regulatory limitation is unnecessary."
Down the analog hole

The MPAA's filing also responds to the comments of Public Knowledge and seven other organizations. PK's filing expressed skepticism that the "analog hole" problem really requires this waiver.

"Evidence which the MPAA has relied on in the past to demonstrate the dangers of the 'analog hole' is unreliable and inapposite," the groups charge. "In the complete absence of evidence, there is no reason to believe that additional, costly, restrictive technologies are needed."

MPAA answers, in so many words, that the fears of its own member studios make the need for the waiver self-evident. "The fact that almost no movies are made available to MVPDs pre-DVD release is clear and convincing evidence that the analog hole is an impediment to the early window release of high-value content," the MPAA concludes. The association has pressed its Petition for Expedited Special Relief on behalf of Paramount Pictures, Sony Pictures, Twentieth Century Fox, Universal City Studios Walt Disney Studios, and Warner Brothers.

and these are the ppl that want to screw us all over "Paramount Pictures, Sony Pictures, Twentieth Century Fox, Universal City Studios Walt Disney Studios, and Warner Brothers. "

The MPAA's reply-to-comments on its waiver request PDF click me
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 08 Aug 2008 @ 5:16

638.8.2008 5:49

Zippy, you contradict yourself... first you said that in 5 years time, 1080p TV screens will be about US$5-6 an inch, therefore you're saying that a 40" screen will cost under US$300, and I'm having a hard time believing that will actually happen, even in 5 years... hell, even now that are becaming obsolete, 27" and larger CRT TVs are sold above US$300.

Now you're saying that only screens under 30" will sell for US$300 or less, but 30" to 40" screens will sell at US$500-1200... now that's more realistic, yet i doubt a real name brand (Sony, Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic) will ever sell a 1080p 40" screen at US$500-600, even in 5 years... most likely will be priced for around US$800.

You have to consider also that the prices we are talking about, are for consumers within USA, but people in the rest of the world have always paid almost twice for the same stuff. For instance, a 40" screen that is sold for US$1200 in USA, is currently sold for US$2000 in other countries.

If you add up that also Blu-ray players and movies, are sold in other countries at much more expensive prices than in USA, then consider that if a lot of people in USA think that isn't worth spending money in equipment so they could view BD movies, the scenario is even worse for people in the rest of the world.

Maybe in 5 years the USA market will be adecuate for Blu-ray, when most US homes will have a HDTV set, and if a new revolutionary format doesn't arrise by then; but that will not be the case for the rest of the world, and not to the extend to take over DVD, specially globally, because it's lightyears from achieving worldwide acceptance, popularity and consumption.

I really doubt that Blu-ray will triple its US market in 2 years, but even if Blu-ray expands its market within USA, it won't make any difference if it keeps beign ignored and rejected by the global population, and it will be doomed to a niche market for a few countries in the world.

PS: Movie studios will not release titles on BD exclusively, they need the income and profit from billions of DVDs sold globally, and it will be suicidal to do the contrary.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 08 Aug 2008 @ 6:01

648.8.2008 7:38

Originally posted by ematrix:
Zippy, you contradict yourself... first you said that in 5 years time, 1080p TV screens will be about US$5-6 an inch, therefore you're saying that a 40" screen will cost under US$300, and I'm having a hard time believing that will actually happen, even in 5 years... hell, even now that are becaming obsolete, 27" and larger CRT TVs are sold above US$300.

Now you're saying that only screens under 30" will sell for US$300 or less, but 30" to 40" screens will sell at US$500-1200... now that's more realistic, yet i doubt a real name brand (Sony, Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic) will ever sell a 1080p 40" screen at US$500-600, even in 5 years... most likely will be priced for around US$800.

You have to consider also that the prices we are talking about, are for consumers within USA, but people in the rest of the world have always paid almost twice for the same stuff. For instance, a 40" screen that is sold for US$1200 in USA, is currently sold for US$2000 in other countries.

If you add up that also Blu-ray players and movies, are sold in other countries at much more expensive prices than in USA, then consider that if a lot of people in USA think that isn't worth spending money in equipment so they could view BD movies, the scenario is even worse for people in the rest of the world.

Maybe in 5 years the USA market will be adecuate for Blu-ray, when most US homes will have a HDTV set, and if a new revolutionary format doesn't arrise by then; but that will not be the case for the rest of the world, and not to the extend to take over DVD, specially globally, because it's lightyears from achieving worldwide acceptance, popularity and consumption.

I really doubt that Blu-ray will triple its US market in 2 years, but even if Blu-ray expands its market within USA, it won't make any difference if it keeps beign ignored and rejected by the global population, and it will be doomed to a niche market for a few countries in the world.

PS: Movie studios will not release titles on BD exclusively, they need the income and profit from billions of DVDs sold globally, and it will be suicidal to do the contrary.

fuzzy brains FTW!!

Well low brands can be as much as 30% in price compared to a high brand, so its reasonable to think you'll start having some 30-40inchers in the 300-600 range, in 5 years, "foreign BR troubles are foreign" meaning that as long as the media industry focuses on BR in 5 years they can end DVD production in mass for the US market forcing more BR sales, with JP and other parts of the world they can do this and move half the world to BR while using their precious region locks to sale hand outs.

Now then momentum is the key here for BR replace DVD, if BR has not gained momentum by the end of 010 then it will probably wont gain any real momentum to replace dvd either before or after 015, and that is if no real competition has come along.

In the end all it takes is the right of amount of corporate attention and it can be done, consumers will buy it as long as its cheap enough.

659.8.2008 1:36

The problem Zippy is that why would anyone invest in a low brand screen, just because it's much cheaper than high brand screens, if they provide a crappy picture... and I'm saying this from first hand experience, and from people that have purchase low brand screens and they repent of doing so, when they get picture worthy of a VHS or VCD movie.

People keep hoping that the analog to digital switch for on the air channels in USA will make the difference, but that only means that the signal will be digital, but not HD necessarily. No doubt there's plenty HD channels, but there's still going to be much more SD channels, as any broadcaster, cable or sattelite company still lacks the strengh to provide all HD content, and for the same reason, the mayority of HD channels will still be at 720p.

My final point in this topic, is if currently HDTV screens are selling in USA for US$400-1200, of course depending of the brand and screen size, is to encourage those who wish to buy one before the switch. But then what will happen after the analog to digital switch occurs? Then they have no rush to dramaticly cut down their prices, since they won't need anymore to encourage people to buy one.

I really doubt that Blu-ray will gain momentum by the end of 2010, not even within USA. And if that's the case, then BD will loose its window of opportunity to gain market, for ever. If you keep thinking that "foreign BR troubles are foreign" then you aren't being objective, and only care for what is happening in USA, yet any format needs interest for global consumption to succeed, and currently BR is hardly getting any.

As long as BD isn't being consumed globally in mass quantities, movie studios will not stop producing movies on DVD, not even within USA. You have to understand this simple fact... if they're having a hard time convincing US consumers to accept Blu-ray, then imagine what is the posture of consumers in the rest of the world, where the presence and interest for BD is minimal to non-existent. Movie studios depend a lot from selling their movies globally, without that income they would hardly make any profit, specially when a lot of movies are more succesfull internationally than within USA.

To believe that movie studios will force people to consume BD (by stoping DVD production) is absurd, they aren't that dumb nor suicidal... hell, the movie studios didn't stop producing VHS movies, until they were absolutelly sure that most consumers around the world were preffering DVD.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 09 Aug 2008 @ 1:45

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