How do they come up with these "forecasts"?. Unless they have a crystal ball, it doesn't matter what the say because anything can happen in the next four years.

That's because upconverting DVD players are no longer high-profit margin products.

We will see manufacturers phase out upconvert DVD players and they will start selling new upconvert DVD players with built-in BluRay drives.

Oppo has done this already. The DV-983H is their last DVD-only model. It's all BluRay/Upconvert from now on starting with the BDP-S83.

Talk about bad timing.

These guys were probably commissioned (I wonder by whom?) to come up with their PR/thoughts/projections before the banking & financial crisis started & the coming recession (they are not quite the same thing) was not just starting.

Whatever one thinks about Blu-ray it's timing is desperately unlucky.

The coming recession and the credit crunch means people most probably will not be rushing out to buy Blu-ray devices, not this year and probably not next or the year after.
In fact many analysts say the huge debt burden our Govs are taking on mean either high taxes or a big bout of inflation will follow = shades of the 1970s & the many years of recession that followed (some say they saw no real recovery from the mid 1970s through to the mid 1980s).

The news is full of banks either outright collapsing or having to be part nationalised (even in the USA).

A new & expensive type of DVD player is unlikely to figure on many people's priority lists.

Actually, during recessions, sales of board games, toys and entertainment usually increases as people cut out vacations and other expensive activities and stay at home more. However, how that will factor in with Blu-ray remains to be seen.

Um, yeah, right, sure, Parks Associates.
Whatever you say.

Say, you wouldn't be the same Parks Associates who, two years ago, got half a million dollars from the gaming industry to say that the gaming industry would 8 see billion dollars in revenue over the next two years from downloadable content and console sales, when in fact, they haven't cleared one billion?

No stopping BluRay now.

HDNow

High Definition disk content was always going to do well sooner or later, whether it was Blu-ray or HD-DVD.

People said the same thing about DVD when it first got on the scene and how it wouldnt catch on or it would be dead in 2years etc etc etc.

The fact is the only thing the rival Blu-ray atm is digital downloads and despite what ppl say this is far far far far away from mass market adoption as the internet infrastructure just isnt there atm and with more and more isp's capping download limits it just isnt feasible atm.

Plus with most technology the longer its around the cheaper and cheaper it gets and sooner or later the price point is going to reach mass market adoption.

I suppose anyone could predict that Blu-ray sales would increase, tho its anyones guess whether these numbers are even close to acturate

When the price drops below $200.00 USD they should start to sell like hotcakes. Right now here in the U.S. the price is currently too riducuosly high, no one I know owns one. In the Asian and European market the prices for these machines are even higher. I don't see it overtaking regular DVD for a long time to come.

Originally posted by jony218:

---

When the price drops below $200.00 USD they should start to sell like hotcakes. Right now here in the U.S. the price is currently too riducuosly high, no one I know owns one. In the Asian and European market the prices for these machines are even higher. I don't see it overtaking regular DVD for a long time to come.

---

In a time of recession people stick with what they already have.
They do not go out & splurg out on a new (comparatively expensive) DVD player nor the HD receiver etc etc to go with it.

It's true that some might buy a big HD TV (while they can) but many are finding that the upscaled stuff is a big step up already (and often think they have HD as it is).

The big deal about the credit crunch is that easy loans for this kind of thing are dying up.
The banks aren't lending so easily.
That's on top of the job losses etc to come from the recession itself.

This is a very unlucky time to be trying to establish a new product like Blu-ray.

Originally posted by Interestx:

---

In a time of recession people stick with what they already have.
They do not go out & splurg out on a new (comparatively expensive) DVD player nor the HD receiver etc etc to go with it.

It's true that some might buy a big HD TV (while they can) but many are finding that the upscaled stuff is a big step up already (and often think they have HD as it is).

The big deal about the credit crunch is that easy loans for this kind of thing are dying up.
The banks aren't lending so easily.
That's on top of the job losses etc to come from the recession itself.

This is a very unlucky time to be trying to establish a new product like Blu-ray.

---

If they can start selling the DRM ray players at a 99 to 149 dollar price point, I think it will explode. Maybe then, it can solidify itself as the next hi-def format.

Originally posted by NexGen76:

---

Who needs a loan for a 200 BD player.

---

Originally posted by NexGen76:

---

The choice is easy for a consumer when they walk into a BB or CC & they look at a unscaled player & BD player not even close.

---

Originally posted by NexGen76:

---

I work at BB part time & i can tell from what i seen upscale player not selling that good people prefer BD but some say the prices are a little high for them.They don't ask for unscaled players anymore.

---

Welcome back hughjars.

Originally posted by juankerr:

---

Welcome back hughjars.

---

Interestx, i totally agree with you (no point repeating it) i read all comments and some don't recognize that these aren't the times for spending money carelessly. Everybody around the world is being affected by the present economic crisis, and facing such scenario, people tend to save money, stick with what they already have, and spend money only on the essentials, no doubt it narrows Blu-ray's window of opportunity even more.

Not bad! A BR player for $250! it comes more in reach for me now! but still dunno! i have a good dvd up converter well 2 of em! 1 stand alone HD-DVD & 1 xbox add on!i can buy dvd-s from $5-$20 or a BR for what 25-35? i will stick with my SD stuff for now! i still have 1 (of 2) t.v.s that is older & non hd ready! & i am not gonna drop $500 on 2 BR players! especially when i wouldn't even buy the good car battery 2 weeks ago! when 3 years ago i would have gotten the top of the line!
Man my 2 tivos are still SD! those will be the 1st things to get upgraded!

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

That's because upconverting DVD players are no longer high-profit margin products.

We will see manufacturers phase out upconvert DVD players and they will start selling new upconvert DVD players with built-in BluRay drives.

Oppo has done this already. The DV-983H is their last DVD-only model. It's all BluRay/Upconvert from now on starting with the BDP-S83.

---

That's it in a nutshell 13thHour.

The same thing they did when they introduced DVD - except it was called CSS DRM.

I remember the same responses from VHS supporters too.

Originally posted by 13thHouR:

---

you mean, they are forcing us to change to crippled by DRM hardware so they can price fix media using the region blocking of CSS DRM, and try to sell us all the content we have purchased already on VHS and engage in multi dipping while the next best format is ripe to be exploited, surley not.... not the MPAA deciding they need to make extra money quick, and are sending teams of morons out to tell us all how good this new format is, and if you don't purchase DVD you are still viewing content in 60's esk definition, get with the times grandad!

---

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

That's because upconverting DVD players are no longer high-profit margin products.

We will see manufacturers phase out upconvert DVD players and they will start selling new upconvert DVD players with built-in BluRay drives.

Oppo has done this already. The DV-983H is their last DVD-only model. It's all BluRay/Upconvert from now on starting with the BDP-S83.

---

Originally posted by ripxrush:

---

Not bad! A BR player for $250! it comes more in reach for me now!

---

sorry.. 30% inflation on food and fuel.. and 80% inflation on housing costs.. being sustained by a 24% reduction in earnings over the same 12 months..

forget it.. I'm sticking with my 24" no sound dumpster Tatung tv.

i have a lot of kin folks and friends and not one that i know have even bought a hd tv yet. but have bought hybrid cars. you dont need blueray until you buy a hd tv. maybe some day we will buy a hd tv but by then they may not be a blueray . maybe something better. to me blueray came at a bad time.

Just the same old rhetoric...

Original ~ Why DVD will Fail

Current ~ Sounds a lot like Blu-ray

Quote:

---

It's hard to imagine now, but when DVD first launched, its success was far from guaranteed. Back in 1996, there were even anti-DVD fanboys, and recently we ran into a rant--sarcastically retitled as "Why DVD would fail"--that struck us as eerily familiar to the current arguments against Blu-ray. Considering that DVD was such a huge success, it's worth looking at exactly how similar the two formats are at this early stage, and what that means for the future of Blu-ray.

1. Consumers aren't willing to rebuy movies

They will be the same tired movies that everyone already owns and will be loathe to buy again. [...] Because the titles available will be ones that people already own, they will naturally sell less than a new release that is still hot from the theaters. This will result in even a bigger cost for companies because the less they sell, the more each feature costs to implement on each title.

Right. Just like nobody repurchased their albums on CD or VHS tapes on DVD. This one seems to get dragged out for every new format and is quickly ignored once it takes off. We're not saying that people will rush to replace their DVDs with Blu-ray discs, but it seems obvious consumers eventually give in and repurchase media if the new format is worthwhile. The only difference we'd note is that well-kept DVDs don't deteriorate after use like VHS tapes did, so perhaps consumers will be somewhat less likely to replace their DVDs that still look as good as the day they bought them.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

2. Not enough movies

All the companies involved with DVD are promising a catalog of 250 titles at the launch with maybe 50 to 100 actually available in the stores in the beginning. [...] And even if they do manage to finish 250 movies in time for the launch, what will those movies be? Top Gun? Rocky?

When any type of new format launches, early adopters are stuck with a pretty limited initial selection. It happened with DVD, and it happened with Blu-ray, which still only has about 650 titles available two years after its release. And we're seeing it all over again with criticism of the selection on online movie services, such as iTunes, Vudu, and the Netflix Player. This argument seems pretty shortsighted overall--if a new format offers a new compelling experience, the content will follow.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

3. Can't record

Consumers will look at DVD and see that it doesn't record. That will instantly arouse suspicions in their mind that if the movies they want to watch are not available on the DVD discs, then the machine will be useless to them and a waste of money.

DVD recorders are old technology now, but when DVD first came out one of the knocks against it was that it didn't record like VHS--which was a killer feature before DVRs became ubiquitous. Blu-ray recorders are available now in Japan, but we haven't seen any signs of them coming to the U.S. in the near future. But the real issue is that Blu-ray recording just doesn't matter as much with high-def DVRs and so many TV series being released on high-quality DVD and Blu-ray sets.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray, but less people care.

4. Nobody cares about special features

Another question is, how many consumers actually want and use all the special features that DVD might offer? CD players offer all kinds of special programming and playback options, yet most people never touch these features. A cheap VCR is seen as too intimidating to most Americans. They just want to watch the movie, not select different versions, languages, and such. The LD market has proven that these extra features are desired, but only by a small segment of the population.

This point has been made about Blu-ray right here on CNET, in Executive Editor David Carnoy's Fully Equipped column. While I tend to agree that special features aren't a big draw for DVD or Blu-ray, it tends to be the icing on the cake, rather than the main draw of the format. DVD didn't succeed because of special features--and neither will Blu-ray--but they're a nice extra.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

5. Picture quality isn't that much better

And now we get into the most controversial aspect of the entire DVD debate. Picture quality, or the lack there of. When DVD was first announced, it was claimed to offer D1 Master Tape quality. A short while later, the companies said it was much better than VHS but worse than LD. Now they have swung the other way again and are claiming D1 quality again. Quite simply, this will be impossible on commercially prepared, feature-length films.

It seems insane to argue that DVD isn't a huge leap over VHS in terms of image quality, but it's less crazy than you think. It takes content makers a while to fully understand how to use new technology, which is why many first-run CDs and DVDs are surprisingly mediocre. The same thing happened with Blu-ray--anyone who saw the first version of The Fifth Element on Blu-ray can attest to that. But now that we've seen a steady flow of exceptional looking Blu-ray discs, it's going to be harder to find people who aren't impressed by the image quality of Blu-ray on a big-screen HDTV.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

6. The industry is just greedy

DVD is just a bad idea. It is being forced upon a uncaring and unwanted public and is an inferior product that simply isn't needed or desired. DVD exists only for one reason. Greed. Motion picture studios are always looking for a way to sell the same stuff over and over again and they think DVD is the answer.

More cynical observers might characterize Blu-ray as just the industry's latest attempt to make money on the same movies yet again. But the industry didn't introduce DVD out of the kindness of its heart--it did it to make money--and few people look back on successful formats like DVD and CD as a devious scheme by motion picture studios.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

So, since the same arguments that didn't matter with DVD are now being used against Blu-ray, does that mean Blu-ray is destined to be as successful as DVD? Not quite. The simple fact is that Blu-ray's main draw is that it offers significantly better image quality than DVD, and whether consumers think that's a worthwhile upgrade will make or break the format. All the other arguments essentially don't matter, just like they didn't with DVD.

What do you think? Are Blu-ray critics lobbing the same weak arguments as DVD critics did back in 1996?

---

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

Quote:

---

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

That's because upconverting DVD players are no longer high-profit margin products.

We will see manufacturers phase out upconvert DVD players and they will start selling new upconvert DVD players with built-in BluRay drives.

Oppo has done this already. The DV-983H is their last DVD-only model. It's all BluRay/Upconvert from now on starting with the BDP-S83.

---

you mean, they are forcing us to change to crippled by DRM hardware so they can price fix media using the region blocking of SPDC BD+ DRM, and try to sell us all the content we have purchased already on DVD and engage in multi dipping while the next best format is ripe to be exploited, surley not.... not the MPAA deciding they need to make extra money quick, and are sending teams of morons out to tell us all how good this new format is, and if you don't purchase Blu-Ray or even Hi-Def you are still viewing content in 80's esk definition, get with the times grandad!

---

Some more info about BD sales in comparison to DVD ~ Xbox 360 head Greenberg actually wrong - BD doing just fine

Quote:

---

Recently, Xbox 360 product manager, Aaron Greenberg, indicated in an interview that the Blu-ray is not the future. He also goes on to take stabs at Sony for some of its decisions regarding the PS3.

Greenberg stated in an interview with Major Nelson, that the Blu-ray is no DVD. He also indicated that the Blu-ray format could be the next UMD. I assume he is attempting to correlate UMD as a failed format for movies. An odd comparison considering that the UMD is a Sony PSP only format. I assume you could also say then, that the Nintendo DS cartridges is a failed format as well.

Greenberg said:

“We have no plans to integrate Blu-ray into the Xbox experience, ..We believe that we shouldn’t force consumers to pay for things they don’t want. We also believe that the future’s digital, and that’s why we’ve invested in a massive library of entertainment content.”

This supports my recent story detailing how Microsoft’s nickel and dime business practice is financially savvier than Sony’s model. However, the part about offering consumers more options probably wasn’t what Microsoft had in mind as Peter Moore recently confirmed that the decision to release an Xbox 360 model with no hard drive was based on the extreme desire to bring the Xbox division into the black.

He also said:

“No one knows what Blu-ray will be. It’s pretty clear it is not the next DVD, right? The days of one physical format being the standard are gone… Let’s say right now we’re not sure if it’s the next UMD or the next DVD.”

Apparently, analysts and vendors are stating that Blu-ray is definitely no DVD; in fact according to them it is actually doing much better than the DVD did back 11 years ago. Analysts report from Format War Central, that the Blu-ray format has picked up 145.68% week over week with the release of Iron Man which took a huge 17% of total movie disc sales.

Reuters also reported that optical equipment parts manufacturer, Singulus Technologies, estimated that the Blu-ray format acceptance is much greater then that of the DVD 11 years ago. Singulus also stated that the demand for Blu-ray is about two times more than what then that of the DVD 11 years ago.

I suppose the Blu-ray acceptance rate doesn’t translate well to our Internet induced ADD mentality. In an ever increasing connected world, consumers want instant gratification and action. Only time will tell how successful Blu-ray will be. However, with the US switching to HD sometime in 2009, Blu-ray’s success seems inevitable.

---

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

OMG here comes the VHS, DVD comparison again.

WARNING SONY EMPLOYEES INVADING AFTERDAW

VHS was not digital quality, vhs did not have instant search scan, vhs stretched over time, vhs was effected by magnetism over time.


blu-ray vs dvd difference = 4.7gb to 50gb nothing more!

The funny thing is my point is substantiated with FACTS ~ cold hard numbers. Yours - not so much = opinion & pov.

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

I didn't say anything except why I am not buying.

Originally posted by varnull:

---

I didn't say anything except why I am not buying.

---

This is a site that reports on Technology. Something that you seam to want nothing to do with. Please do nothing, including stirring up crap. It appears that you think that they should report on (surley food, clothes, electric ect are going to be more important over the next few years).

blu-ray vs dvd difference = 4.7gb to 50gb nothing more!
Only a Blind man could not see the difference in that.

Originally posted by glassd:

---

This is a site that reports on Technology. Something that you seam to want nothing to do with. Please do nothing, including stirring up crap. It appears that you think that they should report on (surley food, clothes, electric ect are going to be more important over the next few years).

blu-ray vs dvd difference = 4.7gb to 50gb nothing more!
Only a Blind man could not see the difference in that.

---

the only advantage Blu-Ray has over dvd is, wait for it, its coming, LARGER STORAGE CAPACITY!

If ignorance is bliss. You are turning cart wheels with a big goofy smile on your face right now.

Here is some differences for you. Dont know how it will show up. If you would ever like to learn something about Blu-Ray. Just ask, since you dont know.
Parameters
Blu-ray DVD
Storage capacity 25GB (single-layer)
50GB (dual-layer)
4.7GB (single-layer)
8.5GB (dual-layer)

Laser wavelength 405nm (blue laser) 650nm (red laser)
Numerical aperture (NA) 0.85 0.60
Disc diameter
Disc thickness
120mm
1.2mm
120mm
1.2mm

Protection layer
Hard coating
0.1mm
Yes
0.6mm
No

Track pitch
0.32µm
0.74µm

Data transfer rate (data)
Data transfer rate (video/audio)
36.0Mbps (1x)
54.0Mbps (1.5x)
11.08Mbps (1x)
10.08Mbps (<1x)

Video resolution (max)
Video bit rate (max)
1920×1080 (1080p)
40.0Mbps
720×480/720×576 (480i/576i)
9.8Mbps

Video codecs MPEG-2
MPEG-4 AVC
SMPTE VC-1
MPEG-2
-
-

Audio codecs Linear PCM
Dolby Digital
Dolby Digital Plus
Dolby TrueHD
DTS Digital Surround
hd.cfm" class="forum_link" target="_blank">DTS-HD
Linear PCM
Dolby Digital
DTS Digital Surround
-
-
-

Interactivity
BD-J
DVD-Video

Right now Blu-ray has a couple of problems completely unlike anything DVD faced.

First of all - and this is something many devotees will rarely if ever admit - a lot of high def really doesn't impress too much.

I have 170 high def movies on HD DVD & Blu-ray and I am sorry to say that the real genuine stunners are fairly few and far between.

Admittedly I don't have a 1080p/24 screen over 52" but then neither do most and nor will most be likely to.

Secondly, and probably most importantly, the coming economic slump that's uniquely also coming with a credit crunch.
Everyone's news is full of banking collapses and part nationalisations and our Govs throwing vast sums around. This is not some small inconsequential stuff this is really big stuff & set to remain a really big part of the western economic landscape for years to come.
Money is going to be tight and business activity is set to contract severely and many expect this to be for a prolonged period.

That's not an environment to be expecting a mass-adoption of a comparatively expensive video format that only offers an incremental improvement over the upscaled DVD that has only just been on the market (with all the 'HD' & '1080p' marketing) itself.

This is particularly so when some of that incremental improvement that Blu-ray can offer (the audio part) requires yet more expense in a set of new audio kit to hear (and that's pretty expensive stuff to do properly too).

It's also worth pointing out that claims about Iron Man taking 17% of sales (which when all is said & done is still just 1 movie posting a small minority stake in just 1 week) they are not comparing like with like.
DVD is a mature market.
Many DVD buyers wait and do not buy at launch & wait the few weeks or even months until prices plummet.

Blu-ray by contrast as an early adopters format has an in-built bias for higher earnings as early adopters tend to buy more titles at launch.

The Nielson numbers reflect the top 20 earners in any one week but of course DVD (with 90,000+ titles already) is much more than that.

DVD sells almost 1.7 billion discs in the USA p.a.

http://www.dvdinformation.com/industryData/index.cfm

DVD sells over 7 billion discs worldwide.

http://www.contentdeliveryandstorage.org..._worldwide.html

The facts are that Blu-ray does not even capture a true 1% of DVD's sales numbers.
All that 8%, 10%, 12% or even 17% is patently just statistical game-playing to talk up the format.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

How about a Samsung 1500 (now BD-Live with the firmware update) for $149 on Black Friday?

Samsung BluRay Player to hit $149 on Black Friday

---

Originally posted by juankerr:

---

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

How about a Samsung 1500 (now BD-Live with the firmware update) for $149 on Black Friday?

Samsung BluRay Player to hit $149 on Black Friday

---

...or you can choose to buy it now from amazon, Best Buy or Circuit City (among others) and get the 10-disc box set of The Ultimate Matrix Collection for free. The MSRP on the box set alone is $130 so you can figure out if it's worth it to you.

http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-BD-P1500-1...&sr=1-2

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by NexGen76:

---

Who needs a loan for a 200 BD player.

---

Quote:

---

- Who says everyone is going to rush to buy the cheapest (but still relatively expansive) no-name players?

$200 is just not cheap enough.

HD DVD only really starting moving when prices hit $99.

---

No its not enought and Blu-ray players are $300 not $200.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 13 Oct 2008 @ 20:51

Originally posted by 13thHouR:

---

WARNING SONY EMPLOYEES INVADING AFTERDAW

---

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

Originally posted by Interestx:

---

....is patently just statistical game-playing to talk up the format.

---

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

Originally posted by hulud86:

---

Blu-ray players are $300 not $200.

---

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

Originally posted by Oner:

---

So Nielson, Reuters and other note worthy news & informational sites don't know what they are talking about

---

I understand what you where getting at, I just find it odd that the point of reference using your own link shows early sales of DVD where @ 5.5 million in 97 & 30.6 million in 98 and BD sales are tracking even/equal to (actually surpassing) DVD sales in comparison/adoption rate. So while I do agree the fact that BD is absolutely nothing in terms of overall sales to DVD currently (I have never contested that) the comparison is more than just "day to date one versus the other".

Contrary to what others will say & beleive about me I do not think BD will be the next DVD. More like an addition to medium distribution, kinda how DVD-A & Ipods haven't stopped CD player sales etc.

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

Originally posted by Oner:

---

I understand what you where getting at, I just find it odd that the point of reference using your own link shows early sales of DVD where @ 5.5 million in 97 & 30.6 million in 98 and BD sales are tracking even/equal to (actually surpassing) DVD sales in comparison/adoption rate. So while I do agree the fact that BD is absolutely nothing in terms of overall sales to DVD currently (I have never contested that) the comparison is more than just "day to date one versus the other".

Contrary to what others will say & beleive about me I do not think BD will be the next DVD. More like an addition to medium distribution, kinda how DVD-A & Ipods haven't stopped CD player sales etc.

---

"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition

After all the smoke, whines, pleas, arguments, and statistics are over, peeps buy what they think they need and can AFFORD. High end tech doesn't cut it as a reason for the majority. From VHS to DVD was like from Winky Dink (Google it! lol!)screen to grandad's new color TV. Choosing sides has no effect on the outcome. Just more hot air in both directions. I chose a larger CRT unit and DVD-VHS-DIVX player. An HD $40 government off converter. Yes, I'm cheap...and do not have deep pockets nor the desire to be the biggest, baddest, best, most expensive on the block. Pixels per dollar, that is what it is. Ya gotta EAT!

(I fully expect someone to present a nice graphic on how I would be better off with BD....but return on investment is what peeps with heaps of money concern themselves about. The rest of us get by!)

Originally posted by iluvendo:

---

DVD-A is near dead (and so is SACD)

---

Originally posted by 13thHouR:

---

@ Oner go pick a fight with someone else get off my back.

---

Search > http://forums.afterdawn.com/search
Rules > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/2487
Important Rule > http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/380660

Originally posted by Oner:

---

Originally posted by Interestx:

---

....is patently just statistical game-playing to talk up the format.

---

So Nielson, Reuters and other note worthy news & informational sites don't know what they are talking about...but random forum posters hold more weight? Sorry, but I find that very hard to beleive.

---

Here is an interesting quote, on this topic!

Blu-Ray hits the skids, numbers continue to decline

Quote:

---

September 23, 2008

One of the driving forces behind Sony's plan for the PS3, Blu-Ray, is showing signs of decline.

The cause could be a variety of factors, from the failing economy to the summer gaming doldrums, but the effect is clear: Blu-Ray as a media format is in decline.

The news has to be worrisome for Sony, whose PlayStation 3 console has the Blu-Ray disc format as a cornerstone of its strategy to get a multi-purpose gaming and media hub into homes the world over.

In response to the sluggish sales, Sony even went so far as to drastically slash its Blu-Ray player prices to the magic $200 mark, a la Microsoft with the Xbox 360, with other models going for as low as $250 as of this writing. Tech blog Engadget called the new price points "unquestionably delectable," but another observer at the Industry Standard said the cuts and a number of other indicators betray the fact that conditions may not be so rosy.

For example, in the latest Wired magazine, Sony and Microsoft went so far as to include a free Blu-Ray disc, the seven part film noir flick Coma, as part of a full page insert.

"I don't know how much this is costing Sony and its partners, but it can't be cheap -- Wired's paid circulation is 706,494, and this press release indicates that other magazines may be involved," wrote Industry Standard writer Ian Lamont.

Sony is betting the price cuts (and the PS3) will bolster Blu-Ray in time for the winter holiday, but Lamont is wary--especially as more and more consumers turn to the Internet and services like iTunes for their HD content.

"Sony better hope that mainstream consumers feel the same way [about the price cuts], or the company risks another weak Christmas for Blu-ray this year -- and losing out in an even bigger way when consumers begin to turn to the Internet for their HD content," he said.

---

Not that interesting. An opinion from a gamming site in September.

Originally posted by glassd:

---

Not that interesting. An opinion from a gamming site in September.

---

Originally posted by Oner:

---

BD sales are tracking even/equal to (actually surpassing) DVD sales in comparison/adoption rate.

---

Most who are not looking to make arguments out of Old news or news from game sites accept the #s given from Nielson's. Nielson does not care how Blu-ray does. They just try to provide the most accruate #'s possible. If they were just pulling #'s out of the air, no one would pay for their report. If the #'s are good or bad, I dont care. I also dont care if "hugjars" or nobrainer ever buy into blu-ray. Why do they care if I buy into blu? If they dont like it, dont read the artical and do not make post in the article. I dont go to the x-box articles and post crap.

glassd

Nielson put out the stats they are given by the various participating outlets.

The stats they are given are obviously about portraying Blu-ray in the best possible light.

You might not be interested in the real state of the market but I, like many others I suspect, am.

You might not care if your perceptions are being manipulated but I, like may others I suspect, do.

I'm sorry to dispell your paranoia but I am not "hugjars",
I have bought into Blu-ray
(I have a dual format LG BH 200 - which is an excellent player and side-steps the whole 'format war' stupidity),
this is a public forum for discussing the news
and some of us even hold completely differing views.

Far out, eh?

Originally posted by glassd:

---

Most who are not looking to make arguments out of Old news or news from game sites accept the #s given from Nielson's. Nielson does not care how Blu-ray does. They just try to provide the most accruate #'s possible. If they were just pulling #'s out of the air, no one would pay for their report. If the #'s are good or bad, I dont care. I also dont care if "hugjars" or nobrainer ever buy into blu-ray. Why do they care if I buy into blu? If they dont like it, dont read the artical and do not make post in the article. I dont go to the x-box articles and post crap.

---

Quote:

---

Kurt Scherf, principal analyst for Parks Associates, added that Blu-ray player sales will total 5 million globally this year

The latest forecast

---

Originally posted by Interestx:

---

The stats they are given are obviously about portraying Blu-ray in the best possible light.

---

Nielsons only reports on items sold in this situation. Nielsons are not in the business of making predictions or opinions. They don't care one way or the other who sold more. Sony, Phillips, BDA etc are not the ones reporting this information. Home Media pays the Nielson Company for this information and publishes it in their magazine and internet site. If someone wants to make arguments with facts, that's great. Stupid statements with NO backing like "The only advantage Blu-Ray has over dvd is, wait for it, its coming, LARGER STORAGE CAPACITY!" is just immature and benifits no one.

This whole thing reminds me of the industry guys (like Leo Laporte) who say that you have to go to Vista because it's "the future". They do so because more adoption means more support for them. Never mind the fact that it's the worst OS since ME.

Blue Ray, (the disk) is OPTICAL MEDIA which can hold more data. Nothing more, nothing less.
Blue Ray, (the format) is a DRM encrusted, feature stuffed format that does the video and sound well, but spends WAY too many recources on other crap that does nothing but screw the whole system up.

I don't need/want anything other than Video and Audio. Maybe some menues.

I will never buy a Blue-Ray player because I don't have money to throw away. I can play all the High Definition video I desire through my computer. My DVD player will play any video I may need to play and if I have to switch disks in the middle of a movie, so be it.

This whole argument is so stupid.

Five years from now Blue Ray will be on the scrap heap with ME and Vista and Betamax. The FUTURE will be Hard drive or Solid state players with no optical media at all. Media will be downloaded or transfered over the network.

People are arguing over this format as if it matters.

LOL

Here's Dan Ramer of dvdfile.com - from August of this year:

The Naysayers Are Still At It
More wrongheaded prognostication

Quote:

---

I’m really getting annoyed by “industry experts” who seem to be oblivious to Blu-ray Disc’s stellar growth, industry enthusiasm, and consumers’ embracing this high definition format more rapidly that they did DVD.
...

Any market prediction requires a view of the big picture. BD player owners - film lovers and home theater enthusiasts - are proselytizing the format. Studios are pushing for market acceptance. Retailers are enthusiastic with the format’s potential. Technology is bringing the prices of players down. The economies of scale will drop disc prices. BD is capable of delivering unique experiences - including what I hope will be true, full color 3-D. And most importantly, the format is growing at a faster rate than DVD did during its formative years. Don’t let any naysayer dissuade you.

---

Quote:

---

I remain very bullish on Blu-ray. The only factor that may slow what should be an accelerating adoption rate is uncertainty in the economy and the impact the current economic crisis may have on consumer confidence. But despite the dire economic situation, with a more intelligent approach by government with the imposition of regulations to prevent future abuses, I’m confident the economy will bounce back, perhaps as early as mid-2009. BD adoption may be slowed by belt-tightening, but it will not be stopped. BD shall become the preferred vector for film viewed at home.

---

Blue Ray, (the disk) is OPTICAL MEDIA which can hold more data. Nothing more, nothing less.
Is 2,073,600 pixils of real information more than 408,960 pixils of real information? Is HD audio better than standard audio? Is 36mbps greater than 11mbps?Blue Ray, (the format) is a DRM encrusted, feature stuffed format that does the video and sound well, but spends WAY too many recources on other crap that does nothing but screw the whole system up.
What trouble have you had with it's DRM? Just how much time is spent on the other recources? How did it screw up your system?
Five years from now Blue Ray will be on the scrap heap with ME and Vista and Betamax. The FUTURE will be Hard drive or Solid state players with no optical media at all. Media will be downloaded or transfered over the network.
Where did you get this opinion from?

Everything you posted is format specific.
The bits and bytes are still ones and zeros.
I can put a 2000x2000 video on a DVD disk and play it wherever I wish.

I can put the same video on a video server/computer and play it at native format through a projector and fill the side of a building.

Neither has anything whatsoever to do with the media it is on.

What this argument is about is forcing the world to accept this FORMAT, like we were forced to accept the absolutely abysmal DVD format so that your Blue-Ray selection will go up and your hope is that it becomes as ubiquitous as DVD.

I'm telling you, as my opinion, that by the time it starts to become widespread there will be much better, much cheaper and much more versatile players available which won't require the purchase of media at all, will be scalable as video displays become better and won't be hobbled with technology stifling DRM.

And yeah, that's my opinion...
What's yours?
Brian Covey

My opinion is that it is the best video and audio format supported by all of the major movie studios that is avaliable to the general public. I can afford it. I like it more than SD and upconverted video. It looks much beter than other formats. All of this is my opinion which I can also prove to be true.

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

I just don't see anything that supports your theory that they're trying to portray BD in the best possible light.

---

You jus gotta love the arguments, its quite Entertaining to say the least

It is also my opinion that no one is being forced to buy into blu-ray. If you or anyone else does not want or see the need in it, dont get it. Dont read about it if you are not interested in it. Dont comment negetively about it. Just stay as far away from it as possible. This is my opinion. There is plenty of things that i dont like or agree with. I own a Vista PC that I dont like and I own a disk scratching 360. I do not post anything negetive on any Vista or 360 article. I dont even read them. It is easy.

'Iron Man' sold 7.2 million DVDs for the week of September 29th to October 5th and sold 510,000 Blu-ray Discs, smashing previous first week records for the HD format.

Paramount added that the disc sold 260,000 units on its first day (including pre-orders) to set the single day record.

What is deceptive about that. The BDA did not provide this info. Seams straight forward to me.

Originally posted by glassd:

---

'Iron Man' sold 7.2 million DVDs for the week of September 29th to October 5th and sold 510,000 Blu-ray Discs, smashing previous first week records for the HD format.

Paramount added that the disc sold 260,000 units on its first day (including pre-orders) to set the single day record.

What is deceptive about that. The BDA did not provide this info. Seams straight forward to me.

---

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

BD is here to stay.

---

Quote:

---

Samsung has said that it sees the Blu-ray format only lasting a further 5 years before it is replaced by another format or technology.

"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK told Pocket-lint in an interview

---

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

It will coexist with DVD as the HD choice for the movie fan.

---

Originally posted by Interestx:

---

It will coexist as the (very) junior & smaller partner to DVD.

---

Here is one from Sony saying that it will last more than 5 years. http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/15063-Blu-r...years-left.html There are plenty more saying the same thing from Pioneer and the other CE's.
Big deal. They are all opinions on both sides. The Astecs say that the world will end in 1212. The article did not say anything about it overtaking DVD or the likes.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 13thHouR:

---

@ Oner go pick a fight with someone else get off my back.

---

You SERIOUSLY need to take your own advice as you where the only one instigating a problem (as usual).

---

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

Agreed. As long as they continue to release movies on the format I'm satisfied. The studios don't care how it compares to DVD as long as the money continues to come in. Now they have two sources of income for disc based media.

---

The problem with any sales figures provided by some like HMR, is that there are variable, yet when Blu-ray has one good week, inmediatelly is manipulated by others as the format being a constant success, when in fact it only reflects that it had a good week.

For instance, they noted that Iron Man sold 510,000 BDs in the week of September 29th to October 5th, and that half of them were sold in the first day of release (including preorders) which means that a lot of people rushed to buy it. Yet they noted that in the same week Iron Man sold 7.2 million DVDs, and that DVD consumers maybe waiting for holiday sales and discounts to buy it.

Nobody is denying that Iron Man smashed previous records for BD, indeed had a good first week, but at this point that's all. All I'm saying is that we should look closely at how Iron Man does in the following weeks, so we all could get a clear picture before making any conclusions.

There is a pretty accurate rule of electronics marketing that if a product's technology type hasn't penetrated a third of homes by its third year, it's doomed.

Blu Ray's right on the knife's edge.

Everybody I know here in the US is cutting back on expenses and holding on to what they've got in anticipation of an Obama presidency.

Personally, if it's between a new TV and a BR player, I'm going to buy a new TV.

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

There is a pretty accurate rule of electronics marketing that if a product's technology type hasn't penetrated a third of homes by its third year, it's doomed.

---

Quote:

---

US DVD-Video Household Penetration to Exceed 10% in 2000, InfoTech Forecasts

...InfoTech projects DVD-Video penetration of US households will exceed 10% during 2000, fulfilling expectations that the format will be greater than previous consumer electronics product sales records.

---

I don't like the Way Blu-ray "handles things" including there business practices, and the 3 Different DRM's + the 2 incorporated in the devices.

That given, Time will tell how far Blu-ray goes before its demise.

Powered By

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

There is a pretty accurate rule of electronics marketing that if a product's technology type hasn't penetrated a third of homes by its third year, it's doomed.

---

DVD was projected to be at 10% penetration in 2000 (3 years after launch).

Was it doomed then?

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_/ai_58430912

Quote:

---

US DVD-Video Household Penetration to Exceed 10% in 2000, InfoTech Forecasts

...InfoTech projects DVD-Video penetration of US households will exceed 10% during 2000, fulfilling expectations that the format will be greater than previous consumer electronics product sales records.

---

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

The 3:3 rule only covers likely buyers replacing one technology type or installing a new one with no equivalent. DVD had no existing equivalent

---

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

The 3:3 rule only covers likely buyers replacing one technology type or installing a new one with no equivalent. DVD had no existing equivalent

---

So you're saying that the 3:3 rule applies to DVD.

But the article I linked to says that DVD had only 10% penetration 3 years into its life span.

So it should have been doomed yet it flourishes today.

If the 3:3 rule doesn't apply to DVD then it shouldn't apply to BluRay as well.

Or are you going to come up with more exceptions to the 3:3 rule?

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

That's why it's a rule and not a law.

---

Wow, very angry people.

Of course BD will "explode". It doesn't mean that it will take over DVD. That is yet to be seen. Besides, a difference between "VHS vs. DVD" and "BD vs. DVD" is that you have to upgrade your TV to get the full effect with BD. So most likely you are going to see a trend with the number of HDTV being sold and BD being sold. Most likely as we see the number of HDTV climb we will see BD climb as well.

Again, why are we all getting angry about this?

I wish we had a lot of tech forums when the "VHS and DVD" war was being waged. That would have been just has funny as some of these comments.

/OT Will someone please get the people that just stirred up anger, out of these forums? These people turn what could be intelligent conversations into hateful forum trolling. Thanks.

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

That's why it's a rule and not a law.

---

Rules.

Laws.

So you're saying that it could happen but then again it might not.

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

What I said was DVD and Blu Ray aren't equivalent in that case. Apples and oranges.

---

The prices has dropped but it depend on how much off a price drop you are looking for.

upowerbiz

http://www.removed.com/

Has rolled back there players prices they now go from low 200 to 300 dollars 100 dollars cheaper than last year.The prices are going down for sure.

Originally posted by Toshibot:

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

What I said was DVD and Blu Ray aren't equivalent in that case. Apples and oranges.

---

If it doesn't apply to DVD then it doesn't apply to BluRay as well.

There are other factors in play here:

Factor 1: BluRay adoption is dependent on HDTV adoption.

Factor 2: BluRay players are backward compatible with DVD and adoption of the HD format doesn't mean the abandonment of the SD format.

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

It's compressed to hell

---

That's OK!But take a closer look following link,It's great to DVD and PSP converter

spam removed

Originally posted by error5:

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

It's compressed to hell

---

If you need more than that go to a movie theater.

---

You guys take yourselves too seriously. Too many suspensions. I'm suspending myself permanently in here. Bubbyez!

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

Blu Ray stands in the way. As long as it's what they're selling, we're not going to get a true 21st Century format that can deliver something approaching a real home theater experience. Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.

So, unless they introduce affordable data drives so that users can make backups of their ridiculously-overpriced BR DVDs, I'm not interested. SD DVDs may not be as pretty, but their backups last and if the original gets scratched or broken, you're not left with a coaster.

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I admire your optimism but I choose to be thankful for what I have and what's available right now.






So you mean this new tech is not gonna be out this Christmas ? :(

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

Blu Ray stands in the way. As long as it's what they're selling, we're not going to get a true 21st Century format that can deliver something approaching a real home theater experience. Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.

So, unless they introduce affordable data drives so that users can make backups of their ridiculously-overpriced BR DVDs, I'm not interested. SD DVDs may not be as pretty, but their backups last and if the original gets scratched or broken, you're not left with a coaster.

Meh, I say! Meh.

---

Originally posted by ematrix:

---

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

Blu Ray stands in the way. As long as it's what they're selling, we're not going to get a true 21st Century format that can deliver something approaching a real home theater experience. Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.

So, unless they introduce affordable data drives so that users can make backups of their ridiculously-overpriced BR DVDs, I'm not interested. SD DVDs may not be as pretty, but their backups last and if the original gets scratched or broken, you're not left with a coaster.

Meh, I say! Meh.

---

I agree with all your comments... yet due to the current economic crisis and global recession, now more than before I seriously doubt will see Blu-ray achieving worldwide mainstream penetration and consumption, when in fact it will contribute to insure that Blu-ray's lifespan will be much shorter than what the BDA hoped for.

---

Sony 4K Projector - $114,000

Hitachi Holographic Drives - $15,000/Holographic Media $120 - $180

You DO realize that's only because they're prototypes, right?

Originally posted by mspurloc:

---

Sony 4K Projector - $114,000

Hitachi Holographic Drives - $15,000/Holographic Media $120 - $180

You DO realize that's only because they're prototypes, right?

---

Quote:

---

AMC Theatres is installing 10,000- and 18,000-lumen versions of Sony’s SXRD 4K projector for 54 screens at four theaters in Dallas, Indianapolis, San Diego and Riverside, CA.

---