AfterDawn: Tech news

PS3 still in first quarter of its lifespan, says Sony

Written by Andre Yoskowitz (Google+) @ 28 Feb 2010 21:39 User comments (16)

PS3 still in first quarter of its lifespan, says Sony Sony Computer Entertainment America CEO Jack Tretton has made it abundantly clear this weekend that the PlayStation 4 is not coming any time soon.
Tretton says the PS3 is only "in the first 25% to 30% of this generation," meaning there is at least 6 more years before a PS4 is sitting on retail shelves.

"I would say we're sitting in the catbird seat,"
Tretton added, via CVG. "We've just passed the third year of the PlayStation 3 and we're just hitting our stride. And I don't think anyone is saying, 'This is a five-year cycle; what's new on the horizon?' I can't even imagine what can be done technically beyond the PlayStation 3 in the near future. A question I often get is when we are going to see PlayStation 4. When somebody can craft the technology that exceeds what we're able to do on the PS3, but we are still just starting to harness it."

Although not related, Tretton also said he expected God of War III sales to "blot out the sun."

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16 user comments

128.2.2010 21:51

As fast as the tech race goes these days, it can be guaranteed that Microsoft or even Nintendo will have something up their sleeve way earlier than 10 years. Remember that the XBox 360 does a have a year ahead of PS3, and if Sony thinks it's going to fall behind again in the console wars, think again. They've been struggling to reach to the top since day 1 and aren't going to make the same mistake again. - BLUEBOY

228.2.2010 22:10
kubapolak
Inactive

I do agree. It is hard to imagine what the future will bring.

31.3.2010 0:26

a neural VR System, so when you really do get shot in the head you can really feel it.

41.3.2010 0:42

Yeah I think its safe for them to take like 5 years of on console developments. Work on handhelds guys lol

51.3.2010 0:48

"meaning there is at least 6 more years before a PS4 is sitting on retail shelves."

Um, no...meaning there's probably around 3-4 more years since they would be releasing a new system 2-3 years before possibly dropping support for the PS3.

61.3.2010 1:06

it be nice if is more like 8 years or more.

71.3.2010 1:23

Originally posted by DXR88:
a neural VR System, so when you really do get shot in the head you can really feel it.
Lmfao I've been debating this every now and then when I'm playing COD modern warfare 2 or socom.

81.3.2010 1:58

Originally posted by xnonsuchx:
"meaning there is at least 6 more years before a PS4 is sitting on retail shelves."

Um, no...meaning there's probably around 3-4 more years since they would be releasing a new system 2-3 years before possibly dropping support for the PS3.
3.25 years since release (Nov 2006). If it's still in the first quarter (25 percent), that implies the lifespan is 13 years. 13-3.25= 9.75.

9.75 - 3 (years before dropping support as you've said) = 6.75 years, making my number accurate.

91.3.2010 2:54

Originally posted by DXR88:
a neural VR System, so when you really do get shot in the head you can really feel it.
Something like this?Would be awesome:

http://vimeo.com/6932347


Piss me off, and I Will ignore You!

101.3.2010 4:23

Quote:
Originally posted by xnonsuchx:
"meaning there is at least 6 more years before a PS4 is sitting on retail shelves."

Um, no...meaning there's probably around 3-4 more years since they would be releasing a new system 2-3 years before possibly dropping support for the PS3.
3.25 years since release (Nov 2006). If it's still in the first quarter (25 percent), that implies the lifespan is 13 years. 13-3.25= 9.75.

9.75 - 3 (years before dropping support as you've said) = 6.75 years, making my number accurate.
OK...I was going more by their original "10-year lifespan" plans. He also said "25% to 30%" (within the 2nd quarter, not 1st)...if possibly closer to 1/3 done, then that would be 10-11 years.

I still think that Nintendo will have something new in 2012-2013, MS in 2013-2014 (2013 only if they rush things...again) and Sony in 2014-2015 (2-3 years before their expected 'end' of active PS3 support).

111.3.2010 8:43

let's hope they sort this out with the PS3 before they move on to the PS4 - Old style PS3 consoles crippled by date bug
http://uk.videogames.games.yahoo.com/f8/...bug-38b6f8.html

121.3.2010 11:08

"I can't even imagine what can be done technically beyond the PlayStation 3 in the near future"

Apparently this guy has never heard of PC gaming.

131.3.2010 12:03

Originally posted by DVDBack23:
Originally posted by xnonsuchx:
"meaning there is at least 6 more years before a PS4 is sitting on retail shelves."

Um, no...meaning there's probably around 3-4 more years since they would be releasing a new system 2-3 years before possibly dropping support for the PS3.
3.25 years since release (Nov 2006). If it's still in the first quarter (25 percent), that implies the lifespan is 13 years. 13-3.25= 9.75.

9.75 - 3 (years before dropping support as you've said) = 6.75 years, making my number accurate.
Exactly Andre. The current PS2 proves (no matter what some would try to have the misinformed believe) that Sony will continue support for their customers. If Killzone 2, Uncharted 2, God Of War 3 & GT5 are anything to go by @ this early stage of the game of the PS3's life-cycle then just like with the PS2's ever growing physics, graphics and technological advancements over 10+ years then there is no rush for Sony with the PS3 or even PS4.

Their forward thinking (just as with the PS1 & PS2) has them in perfect position for quite a few years over what the competition will have to gamble with real soon. The Wii will undoubtedly be out by 2012 (easily) and the 360 will have some trouble with Natal being it's saving grace as MS has said they are not dropping the 360 and starting a new gen as quickly as before...which is actually a BIG problem for them as devs are really starting to complain about the 360's limitations ~ no standardized HDD, DL DVD space of only 6.8gb being available, heavy charges for excess discs, graphics/physics/calculation capabilities showing their age for such a "new" system and so on.

The economy isn't going to change any time soon and this is a BIG hot topic for all companies when it comes to investors money, support and their future. So while Ninty can go the route of coming out with an upgrade to the Wii in HD but still play "safe" with costs and equipment, you can easily conclude knowing the information of the great success and SERIOUS profits they have garnered from the Wii, that they will at least HAVE an option/card to play for the "next, next gen". As for Microsoft though, when you factor/weigh in the cost(s) of RROD, E74 & Disc Scratching you have to think that MS's investors plus the company as a whole are really in questionable form for what they can do next (limited options). Microsoft's 360 successor cannot go backwards/stagnate AGAIN like they did with the 360's hardware this gen. They just can't.

Honestly the only reasons I could come up with Microsoft taking a step back with the 360 over the Xbox (no standard HDD, sticking with DL DVD, off the shelf parts) was to either beat the PS3 to market by a year (which is already proven) and possibly hinder/hold back PS3 third party title development. But it seems to only have shot MS in the foot as they have very limited 1st party developers and few and far between TRUE exclusives (a game available on another platform i.e. a PC is NOT exactly the definition of "exclusive").

So getting back to the topic of the PS3's lifespan it seems for all intensive purposes that Sony's gamble with the PS3 may actually have a silver lining and be a blessing in disguise. With it's often butt of the joke "future proof" design in combination with the nature of the economy (in that they have already weathered the worst for their investment and are putting it behind them as of right now) the next 6+ years will just be about expanding their consumer base and putting out "triple A" title, after title, after title.

Sony found their own perfect business model for consoles...and it works. Nobody can deny that. The PS1, PS2 and even PSP prove this, 105 Million, 150+ Million (and counting) and 50+ Million respectively confirms this. And the PS3 is right there with them with it's 10+ Million a year sales. The last official LTD numbers (going off the top of my head) that I have read show them at about 33-34 Million vs 38-39 Million 360's which (again going off the top of my head) shows that YoY WW the PS3 is INCREASING it sales while the 360 has been DECREASING in sales.

But anyway I can't see how anyone could not understandably agree with Jack Tretton's quote and comments recently and for those who want a REALLY good read should take the time to fully go through this article when I saw it I was a bit like "Lots o Words = Fail" but when you start you can't help but keep reading. Great Stuff IMO.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 01 Mar 2010 @ 12:13

141.3.2010 13:57
WierdName
Inactive

Originally posted by Joshewah:
"I can't even imagine what can be done technically beyond the PlayStation 3 in the near future"

Apparently this guy has never heard of PC gaming.
I believe what he might be meaning is that the processing power is close to maxed out for a given microchip size. By Moore's Law, the amount of transistors (the key decision making component) on a given circuit board size doubles about every two years. The problem is that they have become so small that new materials or methods are being needed as the component sizes are reaching their minimum. So, until new materials are found that could allow reaching into nano sizes or new methods are developed (DNA is being considered I believe), more processing power will require larger components. I don't know very much about how the PS3's cell processor works, but I think it's along the same lines of something like a dual/quad core and is subject to the same shrinking complications. I could of course have my information wrong here though.
However, in spite of this, new things could be developed such as better input and output devices. These however, can be added through firmware updates and wouldn't require a new hardware.

151.3.2010 16:14

imagine just how powerful a Slot 1 Based CPU would be if the used current Process to make processors.

162.3.2010 5:31

Originally posted by Joshewah:
"I can't even imagine what can be done technically beyond the PlayStation 3 in the near future"

Apparently this guy has never heard of PC gaming.
Right and could you tell me what PC game blows PS3 Uncharted 2 out of the water.

The PC has hardware changes every year and if your stupid enuff (rich ppl doesn't apply) to upgrade everytime than your pockets will be burnt.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 02 Mar 2010 @ 5:32

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