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Gartner: Android will overtake Windows in 2016

Written by James Delahunty (Google+) @ 24 Oct 2012 19:33 User comments (14)

Gartner: Android will overtake Windows in 2016 Android will dominate all, says Gartner.
The research firm is predicting that by 2016, Android will have dethroned Microsoft's Windows operating systems as the dominant OS in the world. It projects that there will be 2.3 billion PCs, tablets and smartphones running Android software, while there will be 2.28 billion devices running Windows.

By the end of this year, Android won't even be half way toward beating Windows overall, with 1.5 billion devices running Windows, to 608 million running Android. Of course, if you focus on the smartphone market, Android beats all already with over two thirds of the market.

Android's rise is phenomenal, when you consider it only broke into the market in 2008. It had been described by the late Apple founder Steve Jobs as a stolen product, and Apple is suing manufacturers of Android devices in courts all over the world in an attempt to subdue it.

Microsoft's launch of its Surface with Windows RT tablet brings the company to the market properly, but its lateness is evident in reviews of the devices, which say it is spoiled by a lack of apps for the platform. Microsoft chairman Bill Gates promised an October surprise recently for apps that will run on Windows 8/RT.

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14 user comments

124.10.2012 21:10

remarkable!

225.10.2012 10:16

Ok...let me start off by saying I love my Android phone. I am not a hater here...

That being said...Android is a relatively closed hardware environment (no such thing as plug and play devices except for very generic devices like usb storage drives). It's also geared for relatively low horsepower devices.

Calling it an OS, while true, is too simplistic. This would be like saying Java is poised to overtake Windows because it's on more devices. I'm not going to replace my desktop OS with Android unless they do significant work generalizing the hardware layer and making the software I use compatible with it. I tried replacing my Windows with Ubuntu/WINE a few years ago...that lasted for about a month before I got fed up and went back to Windows due to software incompatibilities with what I use.

325.10.2012 16:42

Originally posted by IguanaC64:
Ok...let me start off by saying I love my Android phone. I am not a hater here...

That being said...Android is a relatively closed hardware environment (no such thing as plug and play devices except for very generic devices like usb storage drives). It's also geared for relatively low horsepower devices.

Calling it an OS, while true, is too simplistic. This would be like saying Java is poised to overtake Windows because it's on more devices. I'm not going to replace my desktop OS with Android unless they do significant work generalizing the hardware layer and making the software I use compatible with it. I tried replacing my Windows with Ubuntu/WINE a few years ago...that lasted for about a month before I got fed up and went back to Windows due to software incompatibilities with what I use.
Same OS's working in Smartphones & PC, will do the trick, you will see this happening in 6 months from now.

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425.10.2012 17:16

Well...we can diverge and talk about same OS on smartphone and PC...

I'd have left Windows long ago if my software worked elsewhere. I also have trouble believing my brand new X-Com: Enemy Unknown is going to install just fine on a new Windows 8 phone because they run the "same" OS...much less on Android. If I had a Windows 8 phone, I'd plug in my USB DVD drive and try the install right now. I'm not sure Steam would be very happy with the install either.

Android might be installed on more general devices than Windows, but they serve completely different markets. Android will not be dethroning Windows in the market it primarily serves...desktop OS on x86 or ia64 hardware. Dell/HP/Lenovo/etc will not be offering Android on mainstream machines in the next six months.

This statistic is the same as me making the statement that toasters will be overtaking the microwave in the crunchy toast market by 2016.

526.10.2012 5:30

Originally posted by IguanaC64:
Well...we can diverge and talk about same OS on smartphone and PC...

I'd have left Windows long ago if my software worked elsewhere. I also have trouble believing my brand new X-Com: Enemy Unknown is going to install just fine on a new Windows 8 phone because they run the "same" OS...much less on Android. If I had a Windows 8 phone, I'd plug in my USB DVD drive and try the install right now. I'm not sure Steam would be very happy with the install either.

Android might be installed on more general devices than Windows, but they serve completely different markets. Android will not be dethroning Windows in the market it primarily serves...desktop OS on x86 or ia64 hardware. Dell/HP/Lenovo/etc will not be offering Android on mainstream machines in the next six months.

This statistic is the same as me making the statement that toasters will be overtaking the microwave in the crunchy toast market by 2016.

626.10.2012 5:38

well if you look at it this way 2008 to 2012 that quick growth and your talking about a company who has been around years. I agree with mrguss wait and see what google does with android. As for ubuntu more then 5% of people world wide use ubuntu and with 5 games from ea next year you can be sure ubuntu will get others to jump on it . Windows has go to big with to many wholes in it and is way over priced. All we have to do is get more companies to support android and ubuntu and I think if more people are going to use the products its wherethe mony is goping to be and you will see windows haveing to lower there prices to keep customers.

A lot of what windows does is copy other companys in some way. Apple does digital download who does it next Bill Gates and Microsoft. Bottom line when a product is over priced lower it or loose out i say bring on android and most of all bring on the new ubuntu 12.10 love it and software is growing for it.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 26 Oct 2012 @ 5:41

726.10.2012 19:09

I love android, but as for taking over windows.... No. it isnt THAT GOOD... like i seen in other comments, yes there is no "plug n play" support, among other things. its great for smart phones and tablets, but as for a "Desktop PC" no..

its like windows 8, its trying to act like a HUGE smart phone ,, kinda look to it. you really think BIG BUSINESS's are gonna be using it? hell the average home user wont use it. i know wont...

826.10.2012 20:28

I'm enjoying Android on my phone & my tablet.....but it's no desktop OS.

Not yet at least and given the demands desktops face maybe never.

927.10.2012 12:37

I really wish people would get their facts straight. Windows 8 has a Metro Feature. It's not entirely tablet based. One can shut off the metro style, and stick to desktop mode. Or so I've heard from countless posts. I'd really like to try it myself, but I need to purchase a touchscreen, or upgrade an existing LCD(which is likely what I'm doing).
You're missing out, if you dismiss windows 8. There are supposedly multiple refinements to the code. It's even less demanding than windows 7 I hear. And I love windows 7 :p




To delete, or not to delete. THAT is the question!

1029.10.2012 10:31

I guess I should just out myself and admit I'm a PC gamer and unless my OS runs current games, I'm stuck with Windows.

Too many game companies use DirectX and it best runs on Windows. It does run, to a decent degree, on Linux under WINE (amazingly so, in fact), but it's not like running it on Windows. You get all sorts of technical glitches on which you will get little support on. I also have concerns about how legal it is to use DirectX dlls on Linux.

For years, I have wanted game developers to quit using DirectX so that their games would more easily port to other OSs, but it cuts down on so much of their dev time that they just use it regardless (has common hooks for Direct3D, DirectDraw, DirectSound, DirectInput, etc). As long as devs rely on things like Internet Explorer and DirectX, we're pretty much stuck with Windows if we game.

1129.10.2012 12:11

In older news, Pen sales overtook comb sales and portable audio player sales overtook typewriter sales.

Windows (the real windows) and Android are for completely different things, and I know they are not talking about Windows mobile/phone/rt because Android is already far ahead of all of those combined.



1229.10.2012 12:23

Originally posted by omegaman7:
It's even less demanding than windows 7 I hear. And I love windows 7 :p
You're giving me 'some' hope to what I'm considering to be a long grind ahead of me in the "fix this for me" drudgery for the next 3 years at least.

I just don't know if I can talk a bunch of people into upgrading an old laptop worth $50 into a $75/$100 touch screen. Or if I even want to eek out another OS.

Ubuntu is starting to look even better right about now.

1329.10.2012 14:43

My big concern with Windows is the licensing. Ignore all those cheap versions of Windows. They're all OEM. Legally, the OEM license can only be used once and it's invalidated if you upgrade your machine too much. If you upgrade your machine instead of buying new or you'd planned to keep using that OEM license on the new PC you just built...you are not legal. Just FYI.

Technically you can pass authentication checks as long as you don't try to authorize too often. Additionally, there's no way Windows will know how much upgrades are too much. So you can get away with violating the license agreement, but I don't like gray areas like that. Many people violate this unknowingly. So either buy the more expensive copy and be legal...or why bother to pay any money at all if you're just going to run it illegally?

I think those are ridiculous limitations.

1429.10.2012 16:36

I'm the last person to defend Micro$oft...but the simple fact is that it is the only OS that does what it does. Linux can do a lot...but until the big software companies get behind it, it just won't be the end-all OS...as long as WINE has any use, Linux will be lacking.



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