NEW YORK, June 28 /PRNewswire/ --
The Bloomberg Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI(R)"), an
indicator based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area
retail sector and providing data one month ahead of government issued
figures, fell from 48.4 in May to 48.2 in June. The latest reading signaled a
deterioration in retail sales performance for the second successive month,
with sales falling at the fastest rate since January.
Month-on-month sales declines were evident in all three countries covered
by the survey:
-- Italy saw the steepest decline, with sales dropping for the fourth
consecutive month. The index fell from 47.7 to 46.5, registering the
strongest rate of contraction for fifteen months.
-- France saw a fall in sales for the first time since March 2006, and
the steepest rate of decline since January of last year (the index
fell from 50.1 to 48.2).
-- Germany showed the weakest contraction in retail sales of the three
countries, and the rate of decline eased compared to May. Sales in
Germany have fallen four times so far this year, having surged in late
2006.
Eurozone retail sales were down compared to a year ago for the second
successive month. The year-on-year index rose from 46.7 to 48.6, signalling
an easing in the annual rate of decline since May but again contrasted
sharply with April's survey record high rate of growth. Year-on-year sales
fell across all three countries, with Italy seeing the strongest decline
followed by France.
Sales by sector
Auto sales showed a steep year-on-year decline in June and autos & fuel
has recorded the sharpest decline of the five main sectors covered so far
this year. Clothing & footwear and household goods sales meanwhile stabilised
on last year in June, having fallen sharply in May, but growth for both
sectors for Q2 as a whole has been well below the strong performances seen in
Q1. Only in the food & drink and pharmaceuticals sectors was any noteworthy
growth recorded in year-on-year sales. Moreover, in both sectors growth in Q2
has strengthened further on the robust rates of expansion seen in Q1.
Sales against targets
Monthly sales targets were missed by a wide margin again in June,
disappointing to a degree only slightly less than the near two-year high
shortfall seen in May. The index moved up from 38.2 to 39.4. Targets were
missed in all three countries, led by France (where the shortfall was the
greatest seen for fifteen months). Targets were also missed in all main
sectors, with the largest disappointments seen in autos & fuel and clothing &
footwear (the latter linked to poor weather).
The index of retailers' expectations of beating planned targets in the
coming month fell to a five-month low of 56.3 (down from 60.1 in May).
Expectations were lowest in the pharmaceuticals sector, followed by household
goods and autos & fuel. Clothing & footwear and food & drink retailers were
the most optimistic, largely reflecting hopes of better weather. By country,
French retailers again showed by far the strongest optimism for beating
targets. German retailers were pessimistic for the first time in five months.
Prices and margins
Prices paid for goods by retailers in the Eurozone continued to rise
sharply in June, though the rate of inflation in recent months has remained
well below that seen at the start of the year. The prices index recorded 57.0
from 57.4 in May, signaling a slight easing in the rate of increase. A sharp
slowing in the rate of inflation in France to an eight-month low was in part
offset by slight upturns in the rates of inflation in Germany and Italy, to
five- and three-month highs respectively.
Retailers' gross margins fell at the steepest rate for four months in
June. The index fell further from April's record high of 48.7 to 44.9 (46.0
in May). Margins deteriorated at increased rates in both Germany and France,
while a weaker fall was seen in Italy (though it nonetheless again saw the
steepest decline of the three countries).
Employment
Eurozone retail sector employment rose for the fourth successive month in
June, though the rate of growth weakened further from May's modest pace. The
index fell from 51.3 to 50.9. Marked national differences in staffing trends
were evident, with continued (but unspectacular) growth in Germany
contrasting with near-stagnation in Italy and a modest drop in employment in
France.
Retailers' buying and stock trends
The amount of goods bought for resale by Eurozone retailers rose only
marginally in June as buyers focused on keeping stocks low for cost
considerations. Stocks of unsold goods nevertheless showed the second-largest
rise seen so far this year, largely due to weaker-than-expected sales
(particularly in France and Italy). The buying index fell from 51.5 to 50.5,
while the stocks index rose from 52.3 to 52.6.
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Notes to editors
The Bloomberg Eurozone Retail PMI is the first monthly report of its kind
in Europe, providing businesses, governments, central banks, economists and
analysts the most accurate and up to date insights and data into the Eurozone
retail sector.
The index, compiled exclusively for Bloomberg by NTC Economics Ltd,
questions more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France and Italy.
These countries together represent approximately 75% of total Eurozone retail
sales. National data are weighted together according to each country's
contribution to total Eurozone retail sales to form the Bloomberg Eurozone
Retail PMI.
The survey tracks retail sales, performance against targets, inventories,
prices, employment and other key indicators. Data are published approximately
one month ahead of government figures.
The Bloomberg Retail PMI report is first published exclusively for
Bloomberg users via the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL(R) service at 09:00 GMT,
followed by a general press release and analysis on BLOOMBERG TELEVISION.
July and August data will be released on the following dates:
-- July data: Released 30 July 2007
-- August data: Released 30 August 2007
Web site: http://www.bloomberg.com
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