HD DVD may have early edge in format battle

At least HD DVD has its sht planed out,BR just got Dual layer discs stable o-o

HD-DVD MAY have the early edge? HD-DVD is completely trouncing Bluray right now. Those numbers are very conservative, and don't include amazon sales figures: http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

Ok but keep in mind that on November 17th there will suddenly be 400,000 Blu-ray players in homes from the ps3.

Yes, but not Blu-ray movies. Unless you're going to tell me that the first ps3 systems are going to be sold to HD movie buffs instead of hardcore playstation gamers.

*deleted*

I would not call it a victory yet because when the PS3 launch its going to be a diffent story.Trust me on that.

The (very) small numbers of PS3's out there at the end of this year must be matched against the numbers buying the XB0x 360 HD-DVD add-on, also due out Nov 06.

I wouldn't be surprised to find greater numbers of this drive sold than PS3's (given the HD-DVD drive is being sold beyond just the USA & Japan, unlike the PS3).

At $200/£130 for the HD-DVD drive (surely a massive bargain.....and one that apparantly may not even require the XBox 360 as a base unit), a universal remote and a copy of King Kong in HD-DVD it too is sure to sell-out.

Are there any numbers out yet for how many of these are expected to come to market between launch and x-mas?

It also has the distinct advantage of being absolutely all about HD-DVD and HD-DVD movies; there can be no question of what they are being bought for, unlike PS3/Blu-Ray.

You can be certain that the large numbers sold will relate directly to HD-DVD movies being sold, unlike the PS3 and Blu-ray movie sales.

Blu-Ray hasn't won anything and is crippled by being almost twice the price of HD-DVD for exactly the same PQ and SQ - although you will find reviews that claim HD-DVD holds the lead on both of these 'points'
(check out the avforums and avsforums......especially what owners of both format types have to say).
Given the technology neither format 'looks' better than the other (and that only applies if Blu-ray uses the superior VC1 encoding that HD-DVD has used since day1).

IMO neither is likely to 'knock the other out' of the so-called format war.
SD DVD is IMO far to entrenched for either format to dominate the mass-market anyway.

Each will simply ensure this is a slow burn confined to av enthusiasts and the quarrels of fan-boy gamers shouting spec sheet numbers at each other (and as the so-called 'true HD - 1080p' saga clearly shows falling for all the ad propaganda and rarely actually understanding the tech in the first place.....tell me, what is the significance of 1080p to you and your 1024x768 LCD monitor/TV? :lol: ).

My best bet is that it will all just rumble on with too many movie studios either neutral and backing both types (as is happening more and more) or being forced to back both types (the EU for instance is now - quite rightly too, hooray the EU! - investigating the exclusivity 'deals' as a blatantly anti-competitive practice).

Then the dual format writers and readers will appear and it'll all become as meaningful and significant as the so-called 'war' over DVD-R and DVD+R is now.
ie not in the slightest.

It would be nice if they could give some hardware sales numbers. I can tell you after I have my PS3 all my move rentals will no longer be on dvd format from netflix unless they do not have a Blu-ray version.

First off to sale HD-DVD add on you got to sale more 360 consoles and by the way it looks in Japan its not going to happen only 1.2 million 360 sold in Japan in all most a year.360 not going to out sale Sony in no form or fashion.You got to sell more console in Japan than that to even think about selling alot of HD-DVD add on your idea about that hughjars is dead. See for yourself.... US video game sales grow 38% in September Posted Oct 13th 2006 12:30PM by Blake Snow Filed under: Culture, Business The NPD Group (which tracks US game sales) announced yesterday that video game sales for the month of September grew 38% over last year to $777M, this despite "dreaded console transition" concerns and being 18% higher than predicted. One NPD analyst believes 2006 will set an all-new record in video games sales citing 20% or greater growth for all categories including hardware, software, and accessories, man boob style. Here's a quick rundown:TOP SELLING HARDWARE (units sold) NDS - 403,435 PS2 - 306,517 360 - 259,458 GBA - 177,145 PSP - 153,353 NGC - 42,286 XBX - 6,495 ... PS2 is still out selling the 360...lol

hughjars that is only if they have a 360 and want the moives that come on hd dvd,plus MS has said no HD DVD games so it makes it even more a moot point.

Here is the thing that all the Sony fans aren't taking into consideration. The only stand alone players are those in the store already. Because they had to stop making them because of the shortage in blue diode. So where as Sony has strong armed Best Buy into only having the Blu-ray players hooked up & playing on TV. While the HD-DVD are sitting on the shelves on display, but not hooked up. Also I bring up the stand alone because how many people are gamers?

I think it's worth considering a couple of things here.

First off, really, who cares what Japan does?
They're a lost cause to anyone not Japanese.
Their market is so profoundly dysfunctional that, whilst it would be nice to sell goods there, we all know they won't import and buy anything not made there.
I honestly don't think it is any exaggeration to say that even if you made their electronics industry go totally bust they'd just as likely just move to domestically produced origami kits as their next hobby than buy an imported hobby machine.
Such is life but proclaiming that as if it were a virtue is really missing the point about the Japanese home market.

There's 300 million in the USA and almost 500 million in the EU zone; if Japan wants to look to their own, then ok, there's plenty of global market left for other people.

Microsoft have said they expect to have sold around 10 million of their XBox 360's by this years end (and I expect these numbers will be further boosted by a price cut in Europe next spring/summer with the timing dependant on when Sony can actually launch their machine).
There doesn't need to be a lot of those people to buy this inexpensive HD-DVD addition to make it a major success and a substantial boost to HD-DVD
(and on the av/avsforums there are plenty of retailers who reckon the 360 pushed a lot of HD TVs so it might not be such a stretch of the imagination to think it will sell well to those XBox 360 owners as well as those looking to run it from their PCs).

It sounds as if you've missed this one Zippy.
Haven't you been hearing that a lot of people reckon the HD-DVD drive doesn't actually need an XBox 360 and that a media edition XP or Vista PC will run it with very little difficulty?

Microsoft have publicly said that they have not made it easy to do but equally they have not tried to make it difficult to do.
If they don't produce the necessary driver/software you can be sure someone else will.

As for HD-DVD's lead?
Well depending on who you read it looks like it is between 6 - 1 and 11 - 1 in sales over Blu-ray.

Quote this if you want, it is true. Point #1 the HD-DVD add on will not sell. It wont. Ill be surprised if they push over 200000 units before christmas. why? It's like all the anti Sonyers are saying, "gamers are gamers, not necessarily videophiles" however, they are related. So a gamer has $200, is that more game money, or HD-DVD add on money? Its game money, don't fool yourself. Point #2 Understand videophiles and hardcore gamers are closely related, usually if you are one you are partly the other. I fall into this category. Now you have a system you are going to buy for sure, just to game. However, this system also comes with this additional disc player. Are you going to continue to collect DVDs or buy BRD instead? Purchases will lean toward BRD. Now that you have some BRDs are you going to buy a new HDDVD player? No. Point#3 An early headstart means NOTHING with new slowly adopted technology. This technology will not be adopted out of a necessity or some large jump in innovation. It's the same thing just better. For this reason whoever can weasel the most units into homes before people realize what the hell is going on will win. Conclusion- BRD is going to win this in the end, based solely on the PS3. Gamers may not be videophiles but they will buy discs for the PS3 because they wont want the function to go to waste. Microsoft won't sell HD-DVD add ons. The release of the product is solely for marketing purposes. "We give gamers a choice" while in the other hand they know they won't sell any. When 360 was between 1yr-6mo before release I remember them saying "There is no need for HD media playback at all". Then Sony said "look look! They dont want to give you as much functionality!" So microsoft said "No I was just kidding, you can have functionality, and we give you a choice!" It's only there to say it exists. Read this article carefully it never says anything about any pro analysts. It cites "data collected" ie raw numbers, and the HD DVD promo group. Great sources. The rest is pure subjective opinion, and wrong at that.

hughjars I have holes in my mind.....I miss thigns :P No didn't hear that so I take it it runs off USB? yes drivers should be made PDQ for it if MS wont pick up the slack I run XPSP1 so I will need a driver if I ever get it. I gotta say the HD add on is not a auto fail MS has been vague enough to make me believe that it can do HD games witch is a plus it and a 360 will be no more or less than a 499 PS3,has it been confirmed it will only run on a 360 with a HD?

Hughjars... What the hell is wrong with you?... Seriously! You are so opinionated on everything you say that it makes it hard to even share open minded views with you. The way you spoke about Japanese most would view as racist. I might be taking this personally and I have good reason... My fiance is Japanese. Look... All I am saying is keep your posts based around the content and if you must put others down, please try to keep some political correctness into your posts.

Please excuse me for making another post directly after the last but for some reason the edit button is not appearing at the moment. Hughjars, in all honesty I am expecting a reply from you along the lines of you firing back. I can't imagine someone like you ever apologising for anything... But... Before you make comments on another nation, you may want to learn more about their culture. Yes, it's true Japanese would very unlikely buy electronics made overseas... But why would they? I mean in reality if it weren't for them where would the rest of the world be in that industry? Back to what I was saying about their culture. They are extremely loyal, respectful and disciplined people. The fact that they wouldn't buy American products not only exists in their consumer trends. They are like that in all aspects of their life. They don't even use the word "no"... They would rather explain why they can't say "yes" then to risk offending someone by saying "no". They use different types of words for friends, family, School Teachers etc. They have formal and informal vocabulary. Families are also very close in Japan. It is not unusual for a sibling to stay at home to the age of 30 or more. A Teacher has higher social status than a Doctor. Japanese bow very frequently as a sign of respect to each other. They also have one of the lowest divorce rates in the World. I could go on and on but all I am trying to say is that they are loyal in all aspects of their life. It is a STRENGTH not a weakness, and I see no reason why they would change this cultural virtue for their consumer habits. I don't mean to give a history lesson here and I know my post is off topic but all I ask is understand something before you make comments on it.

Ryu77 actualy he made a point that I didn't know everything abot the HD add on and he was right :P it only changes things alittle but might spark soething that a ""add on"" alone would not do. Also h is sticking the art of dissuasion and not flameing anyone he might over emphasize my knowlage of things and his point on things but I dont think he has crossed the line ^^

Zippy, why are you replying on behalf of someone else? "even if you made their electronics industry go totally bust they'd just as likely just move to domestically produced origami kits as their next hobby" So... This is not a racist comment? Ok... Then I don't want anything to do with these forums anymore.

Ryu77 Japan did manufacture alot of "origami kits " pre and post war,origami kits being japanase nik nacks of al kinds but they stopped doing that on a large scale since they pwnd the world in electronics,then china took over making nik nacks and cheaper crap and pwned the world. Frankly we are getting pawnd by Asians but alas every decade or so 1 country stands out the most it was japan in the 80s and early 90s and china in the mid 90s toeven today. Now is his/mine statement racist mmm only if you think the PSP ads were totally racist think Pocco rocco is totally racist and such. Japan has a racist bent in their current culture but its not racist persay more xenophobic they would do well to be more worldly in things altho the world would do well to be more worldly in things...to much PCing and you get nanny states and governments trying to keep their populace "barefoot and pregnant" if you will...... If you want to cross brains on this issue or anything else I said I would be happy to further it in PMs or in the safety value ^^

I didn't realise Origami kits represented nik naks... To me, I took it for what it sounded (art of paper folding). It was just the way Hughjars used it in the sentence that sounded rude to me. I'm sorry if I sound sensitive, it's prob due to the fact I hear a lot of people saying things about asian countries they know very little about. I live in Australia... And in this country asian is asian. In most people's eyes here... Chinese, Vietnamese, Thai, Korean, Japanese etc. are all the same. Now that is not at all the truth. Japanese have been making high quality products for quite some time now... Mainly Cars & Electronics. I guess I just took out the frustration here... lol!

Ryu77 I am a die hard anime fan been one for the past 5ish years for the last 2 or so been "understanding" the nuances of Asian culture I always knew chinease was different than japanase but understanding the rest of them takes more understanding eh...WTF am I saying I guess its like grouping European cultures together and calling it a day *L*

*edit*
Asian HISTORY runs deep and long and I still don't know more than basic japanse stuff..mmm maybe to much anime 0-o *L*
Mmmm
last I recall Vietnamese and Thai are simi stablish 2nd/3rd world nations much like china but china has more stuff going for it and is growing at a fast pace because the world is dumping money into it..well almost.
Japan is still a center for electronics's and cars but Taiwan is close to japan when it comes to quality electronics at least it was last time I checked...kinda hard to pin anything electronics wise since everyone is trying to beat spam with spam (china bissness model cheap workers,cheap parts,ect,ect,ect)its sometimes hard to tell whos quality anymore.

mabye I should read/watch more non fiction 0-o LOL

You make me laugh Zippy :-) I agree with most of what you said. Yes, Taiwan make decent electronics but have nowhere near the reputation the Japanese have. I mean at the end of the day... Both formats we're talking about here (HD-DVD & Blu-Ray) wouldn't be here if it weren't for Toshiba & Sony, both of which are Japanese companies.

Ryu77
its the best I can do since life is having fun with me why cant I lighten others day a bit eh? :P
(darnit miss a word or to have to edit my above post)

I see no real difference in BR and HD one has MS on it side the other has sony,the only thing I like is the theoretical BR Storage capacity,MS is making a move so it seems to produce a HD drive thats PC and 360 compatible for under 200,that dose almost put it dead even with the PS3 but for other reasons.

Sony is fighting on 2 fronts with the PS3 games and BR movies,MS has one up'd them with the possibility that the HD drive can work on a computer,altho to truly fight the PS3 in the long run your going to need the HD DVD data capacity.

I don't know it seems both sides and their allies are hunkering down for the long run witch is annoying it delays standardization but dose this make for a better price war or will they team up to needle every penny out of the consumer....

Agreed... I can't see any reason why both formats wont be around for a long time. If one was to vanish, it wont be for quite some time.

Ryu77 poo I missing more words >> oh well 1 hour of sleep will do that *L* I just hope a price war starts and the prices fall quickly other wise its going to be rough for the consumers...

Ryu77, I think Zippy has said most of what I'd say.

Japan is a problem when it comes to importing anything (and it's not just US goods either).
That's not "putting Japan/Japanese down", (why would I anyway, personally speaking I find racism, frankly, pretty stupid)?
But it's not "racist" to be merely reflecting the reality of the market there.

It's so much of a problem that there have been several top level inter-governmental financial (G7/8) meetings over many years (decades even) where this (huge) trade imbalance has been referred to as a problem.
That's not racist it's the truth of the (on-going) situation.

Zippy mentioned the origami kits, they're a fact.......how on earth could you think that was racist?

I'm happy to hold my hand up and apologise when I'm in the wrong, I have no hang-up about that but I do hold views that I'll debate robustly on a MB if I feel like it......is that wrong?

Yes Zippy the add-on runs off of a USB connection and a separate power cord as best as I can make out.

Ludikhris you say this add-on won't sell?
I'll happily come back to this claim in Jan 07 (if we get figures) cos I reckon that if they make enough of them they'll easily out-sell the 400k PS3 units expected at launch.

We shall see, eh?

doesn't japan import a lot of ipods?

hughjars
*yawns*its 3pm and I need more sleep 0-o *sleeps on your foot*

the 360 had a nice core of fans they will buy the add on,then mabye every 4 or 6 normal 360 owner might get it.

got any hard links about the 360 as a add on to the COMPUTER?
I'd like to see thos but then MS is like sony they will change their minds last minute... *L*
BTW you hapen to know what the model number is of the new 360 revision?


slocko
Japan is almost a closed market meaning they dislike to import anything they are almsot like china in reguards to importign and "equal trade".

i didn't do a lot of research, but i think the ipod may be the exception:

http://audioworld.com/cgi-bin/FrameIt.cg...ile=FrameIt.cfg

slocko
theres always a odd or a end that breaks thru ,the japans love gadgets and will buy despite import fees and such.

they still have a rather closed market.

"The HD DVD Promotional Group believes that despite being at a DISADVANTAGE when it comes to content..."

How is that true? Here's a list of ppl behide HD-DVD.Paramount Pictures, Warner Bros., New Line, HBO, DreamWorks, Image Entertainment, Magnolia Pictures, Brentwood Home Video, Warner Music Group, Ryko, Goldhil Entertainment, and Studio Canal.

"BRD is going to win this in the end, based solely on the PS3."
I'm sorry my friend but that's not going to be the case. I think that Blu-ray will not win in the USA market. First, Blu-ray is losing support.(http://www.igniq.com/2006/09/ps3s-Blu-ray-destined-to-fail.html)
Second, I believe americans are going to go for the cheaper technology because the average person wouldn't be able to tell the differce between the two.

That's how I see it.

c4iscool Good point ,100GB a disc might be godly but if its 2 or 4 times more than 20-40GB a disc then whats the point? In the end price will matter but even so these ccomanies are showing no signs of giveing up,I got this feeling it will be a good 4 or 6 years before a standard format will come out of it....

Zippy

There's talk about the PC compatability of the XBox 360 HD-DVD add-on here http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/14109 .

100 - 200 gb Blu-ray discs?
I bet you never see them outside of professional use.....and even that would be a 'maybe'.

Just like our present 'ordinary DVD5' can have more layers than the mere 2 layer versions that ever saw the light of day.

The costs and low mass-market demand are not likely to make it economically viable.

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100 - 200 gb Blu-ray discs?
I bet you never see them outside of professional use.....and even that would be a 'maybe'.

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You cant be serious when you say this...lol.There are games for the PS3 that is up to 25gb & the system has not even lauch yet.People said this about PC Harddrives that 80g was to much look now you got PC coming with 300 g harddrives.I know i step out of the subject a little but i just trying to show you & other people stop being so narrow minded.Bigger is away going to be better,Why? because we as Buyer aways want more....

Circuit City is selling HD-DVD players for $400 and the BD's are on sale for $800. This is a smart move for the HD providers, if they flood the market with HD's before BD's are reasonably priced they just might develop enough edge they need to win the battle. I hope this doesn't happen since I prefer the better format but it wouldn't be the first or the last time it goes that way. Heaven forbid me if I’ve said something to offend Ryu77... LOL Please lightened up and take a strong look in the mirror. Oooops I said heaven forgive me any of you that are not religious, which includes me... :D It’s sometimes fun to stir the pot… Shame on me...

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DamonDash
You cant be serious when you say this.

Bigger is away going to be better,Why? because we as Buyer aways want more....

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- If it was all just as simple as this then how come we in the current mass-market never went beyond dual layer DVD9's (IIRC up to 8 layers were demonstrated on the 'old DVD tech')?

There's nothing "small minded" about recognising the likely market reality.
100gb or the flipper (dual sided) 200gb Blu-ray disc is likely to be so expensive (and that's if they can actually get it working reliably - it took them long enough to get a functional 50gb disc) that it doesn't make it to the mass market (just as our current DVD tech never made it beyond dual layer in the mass market on grounds of cost).

There's nothing "small minded" about recognising that going beyond DVD9 for games is very likely to lead to one long annoying FMV fest and not actual game content (which will be proven when the self same games appear on various other formats without the need for such a 'feature').

================================================================

BTW the new Blu-ray players just going on sale in Europe are way way over tyhe $800 level and HD-DVD here is set to less expensive but far more than they pay in the USA too.

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The next generation format war has just hit the United Kingdom on Monday, with Samsung introducing its DMP-BD-P1000 Blu-ray disc player to the shops.

Unfortunately, while this Samsung model has already fallen below $750 in the US at some stores, it is priced at a whopping ~£1,000 in the UK, which works out at around US$1,870 or about 2.5 times their current lowest US pricing.

Panasonic's Rival Blu-ray player, the DMP-BD10 will go on sale at around 50 "Shop @ Panasonic" stores later this week, but at a higher cost of £1,299 (~US$2,430). Pioneer, Sony and Sharp are also expected to launch Blu-ray players early next year with pricing of around £1,000.

Toshiba expects to launch their HD DVD player next month in the UK with a significantly lower price of £450. Unfortunately, this works out at ~$840 or around double the US pricing also.

This week Samsung introduces its DMP-BD-P1000 Blu-ray disc player to UK stores, touting it as "the world's first commercial Blu-ray disc player" and expects to sell several thousand of them in the run-up to Christmas.
It will cost around £1,000.

Also appearing on the UK market is another, slightly more expensive, Blu-ray system, from Samsung's rivals Panasonic. Next month, however, a rival system, HD-DVD, will be introduced by Toshiba.
It will cost around half the price of the Blu-ray machines but claims equally impressive improvements in both definition and in storage capacity.


With standard DVD players already selling for under £20 in the UK, there is a good chance that only those with a high income or who really want to be one of the first will grab a Blu-ray disc player. At the moment, it is unclear when Blu-ray disc players will become region locked. However, if Blu-ray will lack region coding, a consumer would most likely be better off flying to the US to pick-up a Blu-ray player, as the price difference would not only cover their flight costs, but potentially also cover the costs of a short holiday also!

Unfortunately, regardless of which method the consumer chooses, if the HD DVD format wins the war like how VHS won the early tape battle, they could end up with an expensive obsolete product within the next few years.

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From here.:
http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/14129

can someone explain why the same product would be so much more in UK? i know historically it's always been that way, but why? also, with HD DVD and BRAY does PAL still apply?

hughjars well even if BR gets to 100GB if its not able to fight HD price wise tis already lost. Just saying I would like the format with the most space (rough 50GB one side) and the best price to win. and fliping a disc over to use more "layers" doth not count LOL I sooo hate that! Still as things stand now BR is still climbing the hill and HD is already on top of hill resting waiting for BR to catch up then down they go where they stop is anyone guess...the next hill they get to in 2-3 years should be the begaining of the end of the format wars.

ZippyDSM: "Japan is almost a closed market meaning they dislike to import anything they are almsot like china in reguards to importign and "equal trade". You are wrong on this. Counter examples? Both China and Japan have imported the American junk food culture: McDonald, KFC, Pizza Hut etc.

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There's nothing "small minded" about recognising the likely market reality.
100gb or the flipper (dual sided) 200gb Blu-ray disc is likely to be so expensive (and that's if they can actually get it working reliably - it took them long enough to get a functional 50gb disc) that it doesn't make it to the mass market (just as our current DVD tech never made it beyond dual layer in the mass market on grounds of cost).

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Please give me proof that they are having problem with this....How would you know if this was true or not,Because its what you have read but you got to stop listen to everything you read.Because you read it dont mean its the truth.

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(just as our current DVD tech never made it beyond dual layer in the mass market on grounds of cost)

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There was no need for the next gen dvd players to go beyond that at the time.But as you see now time has changed.Thats why we have HD-DVD & Blu-ray now because of demand.Plus first gen dvd tech laser was not that advance to read past dual layer.

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There's nothing "small minded" about recognising that going beyond DVD9 for games is very likely to lead to one long annoying FMV fest and not actual game content (which will be proven when the self same games appear on various other formats without the need for such a 'feature').

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Ask Sony did they have any problem because the last time i checked they are releaseing the PS3 next month so you couldn't be anymore wrong.What you fail to see is that games are getting bigger and bigger why because we as gamer always want more content they never stay the same size.When the PS2 & X-BOX hit the market people said that a DVD-9 was all the system needed for the next 10-15 years because of its size but guess what they was wrong because we are in year 6 with PS2 & they got a new system just like Microsoft.The reason for Blu-ray more content,the reason i say more content because every gamer want more games to run at real time this has been gamer biggiest issue with games.By having Blu-ray Sony is giving what gamer want more not compressing game on a DVD-9 disc(when you compress these games you game is taking a hit in quailty because you forceing something that could not fit in the first place.

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Please give me proof that they are having problem with this....

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- What do you need spoon-feeding for on this?

Everyone knows even the 50gb disc has only just been made workable and only very recently actually appeared in the marketplace.

It did take them some time to make it work on a mass-produced basis.
That's a fact and not a rumour read somewhere.

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There was no need for the next gen dvd players to go beyond that at the time.

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- Well that does contradict your own earlier comment somewhat.

Cos you said -

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Bigger is away going to be better,Why? because we as Buyer aways want more....

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.....and I have given you a true and factual example where that was simply not true nor anything like so simple.

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But as you see now time has changed.Thats why we have HD-DVD & Blu-ray now because of demand.

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- Well you might think the situation is one simply driven by mere 'demand' but I think you'll be in the minority there.

The truth is far more complex.

It revolves around the fact that this sort of affluent recreational hobby market operates in cycles (a market based on real and actual 'needs' is a different matter entirely, in those markets 'demand' is the most relevant initial factor).
Anyhoo, 'the market' we're talking about, today, to begin with is almost always a pure invention, it is created each time because the existing tech of 'the old market' has reached saturation point, we can see this right now with our present DVD tech - current DVD has gotten so cheap that there is little profit in it for people like Toshiba or Sony etc etc.
This leads industry to attempt to develop and produce new goods (in this case high def DVD) and try to create a demand and 'a new market' for those new and most importantly more expensive and more profitable goods.

That's why something new always has to appear, it actually has very little to do with consumer 'demand', initially.

Hence the CE companies are constantly developing and demonstrating new products to try to 'create a hit' and begin the cycle all over again.
(and the fact that consumers are currently perfectly satisfied with SD DVD is one reason why this demand theory clearly falls down, high def DVD will be very slow taking off......as SD DVD itself was initially too).

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Plus first gen dvd tech laser was not that advance to read past dual layer.

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- Er, yes it was.
As I said before the current (non high def) DVD can go beyond 2 layers easily and up to 8 was proven possible.

The mass-market didn't demand it because it was far too expensive and never cost-effective (just look at how expensive DVD9's are compared to DVD5's).

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Ask Sony did they have any problem because the last time i checked they are releaseing the PS3 next month so you couldn't be anymore wrong.

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- Actually Sony delayed the planned Nov 2006 European PS3 launch for at least 6 months (and even that is open to doubt) until march 2007, thereby missing the entire X-mas market in Europe (ie the biggest European shopping spree of the year).

I'd say that wasn't in the original plans, is a very large lost amount of sales and call that a problem, wouldn't you?

.....and 400k units (or so they say) for all of the USA and Japan isn't exactly a generous allocation either, hmmmm?
I wonder how long until any sign of new stock once they run out?

(and we've yet to see if the unit is reliable, lol )

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What you fail to see is that games are getting bigger and bigger why because we as gamer always want more content they never stay the same size.

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- No, what you seem to fail to appreciate is that the days of the PS1 & 2 are long over.

This time around many developers are not tying themselves to a single format exclusively.

Games are simply too expensive now to produce for one format alone and so to maximise earnings the games developers will typically release on as many formats as they can.

That's how come we know we are very likely to see the self same games on other formats at far less than 25gb (or even a ridiculous 50gb).
It'll be very obvious very quickly.

The only real difference will be the shed-load of tedious and (very quickly) annoying FMV rammed into the PS3 games.

Quote:

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By having Blu-ray Sony is giving what gamer want more not compressing game on a DVD-9 disc(when you compress these games you game is taking a hit in quailty because you forceing something that could not fit in the first place.

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- OK, blinker yourself on this all you like.

Blu-Ray is just there in PS3 as a trojan horse pushing Blu-ray, pure and simple.

Note that Sony are publicly saying their next system won't even use it, everything will come via download in the future they see.....

.....which is interesting given that, er, shall we say, um, 'certain games' won't even come complete (when bought at their already bloated retail price point) on these massive Blu-ray discs, but will require additional spending to download things like cars and tracks.....hmmmm?

Your compression thoughts are way off IMO too, compression isn't about losing quality, it's about upping performance.
Think of it as getting more MPG out of your car, not crushing the car.
Check out the VC-1 advances mentioned below. HD movies don't actually need the highest capacity (45gb triple layer HD-DVD or 50gb dual layer Blu-ray) available now anyway.

Also consider this; whilst 720p/1080i/1080p might be new for a console, PC's & PC games have been way beyond this resolution for ages.
They don't 'need' more than DVD9 either.....and if the need arises 2 DVD9's are going to prove perfectly adequate (and cheaper) for a long long time yet.

ckwan
ya ok thats 1 thing they import ,but it dose not help US citizens any because they a re all corporations and make,of coarse now adays is unlike the 80s and 90s when the US acatluy manufactured stuff to export but still they are only 20ish% more open than they were 10-20 years ago.
Bascily japan is still a almost closed when they coem to imports because they dont want cheap imports to flood thier nation and put poeple out of work,I have alot of respect for the japanase to look out for themselfs because I look at our US counter parts and they are for sale to the highest bidder screw the comment woker/person are they perfect no no country is however they gots big balls :P

DamonDash
1.BR is still a unstable format and only has the abilty on papper to go to 100 or 200GB its rather simpel to think that 100GB discs and the burners that do them would at first be insanely costly but will the BR group lower the price and waylay HD whos to know,with dual HD BR burners begin worked on in labs right now these new formats might merge in 2-3 years with one being for storage and the other for movies but then again this is going to be a lng war anyway you look at it.

2.the only simple thing I know about this mess is its going to be a long war(4-7 years before standardization) unless one side cries give up in a year.

3.true true plus new games in order to became "next gen" require more space for model animation and more textures and well more of everything the days of FMV are thankfuly over but the days of worshiping the blind shallow goddess of graphics are not Hopefuly in acouple years gameplay will start to take a greater role in games.
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hughjars

1.true plus new X layer buners and the new formats of X layer discs are quit expensive when they first come out ,unless you can burn al layers with a first gen burner....and thats doubtful for either format..

2. - 3. OUCH :P

4.damn man I need a drink of IQ boosting sht to understand your posts...but then mine tend to drain peoples IQ ><..anyway its the cycle of commerce if you will new things in time become standard and then after 10 or so years it repeats.

Do we need 20GB games and 50GB movies NOW , no not right now but in 5 years that when this technology will be in high demeaned almost to the point of it being normal,so before then they release it now and the emerging market helps the corporations develop these technologies to where price and performance merge and standard's of the industry are made.

5.Nicely said,but with that said Dose reg DVD with 3-8 layers match HD DVD and would it not cost the same to further dev normal DVD? 0_o
or is HD DVD just eiser to make thus why they made it...or did the companies decide to go t HD DVD because other companies were brinign up BR....uhg the wondering I do :P


6. I dont see devs and publishers maximizing there formats if anything these format war has made more devs/pubs stick to one system and with teh PS3 msot likely to get the most exclusive games because its to costly to produce a 20GB game for a DVD9 system.


7.Pay for add ons and downloads is not knew however Sony is going to try and suck every penny they can out of it much like the "leaked" but not held to yet prices for PS3 games games have yet to go beyond the 60-65 I cant wait till next year if and when the other shoe drops and PS3 games will be normally priced at 70-100 US$

TO me the PS3 chose the long hard road and maximized its potential at the cost of its price,even PS3 games that are 20GB we don't really know whats taking up what,without heavy compression things should load quicker with more room you get better models and textures so this beast is a true next gen machine however to me it still has the problem from when 3D graphics went into high and thats gameplay I am so tired of games being shallow and poorly thought out even I understand it will take them another year or 3 relearn the basics of gaming that is if the old dogs of the corporations can learn new tricks..or even remember how to make a game correctly even then...the PS3 is a beast in every way over the "1.5" consoles ,the WII has the innovation and with innovation should come great things,the 360 is still limping from its launch its potential still beyond the horizon

OMG comments within comments! ...I am on a caffine high! :P

WWWWWWEEEE!!! *L*

@ zippy, lol.
You're pretty good with the informed fact-laden truth yourself dude!


Here's something I wasn't expecting.
Check out
http://www.avforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=411702&page=2 , near the bottom of page 2 and at the top of page 3.
Apparantly the Toshiba triple-layer 45gb discs are not (as someone once nicely put it) pure 'vapourware'.
They're ready right now (if needed) and don't require new machines; so I'd say that takes us well beyond the reach of current DVD (but it is true and a major selling point of HD-DVD that the tech is related, costs are held down and reduced by the use of existing manufacturing infrastructure etc).

BTW did you see the BBC's review of the Samsung BD-P1000 Blu-ray player?
They couldn't get it to play SD DVD.
If that's typical that is going to be a major turn-off to the market.
Note that HD-DVD must play SD DVD as part of it's 'standard'.
Blu-ray does not have to (although they claim they will continue to choose to).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/6065348.stm

As for games and formats?
I think the truth is that there are fewer and fewer exclusive deals around now (for the reasons I gave).

Didn't someone work out that Gran Turismo HD will cost over $1000 if you buy all the addtional features available to download (at cost)?
Can't believe even the fanboy element are going to fall for that one.

.....or maybe they'll 'invest' in the game over time so they don't notice it! lol

I think the 360 is a funny one; as you say steady if unspectacular sales (around the 6 million mark and expecting to be a 10 million by year's end IIRC).
But I expect coming price cuts (timed to spoil the PS3 launch in USA and later Europe) may well be a factor not being taken account of right now.

We shall see, interesting times, huh?

hughjars
pretty much

1.I always thought there is little diffreance in HD and BR BR dose have a insane theoretical capacity jump but other than and BR being a slow starter theres no real diff in them in the "short" run,making for even more a longer drawn out fight.

2.Some first gen players are going to have issues,its the 2nd and 3rd year first and 2nd generation of players I would worry over if they don't have the bugs killed by then then one format is a auto fail.
its funny BR is more of a hog pog of things with above average DRM and HD DVD is a slight continuation of "DVD" ,I guess its good for the consumer they did not join forces to promote a heavy DRM and high capacity format.

I lean to BR side but it really needs to become stable and get to 100GB a disc ASAP and have it at a reasonable price (if a BR buner came out in 1-2 years that could do 100GB discs at 400-600 a burner and 10-25 a disc) it might/could have a chance to come down in price over a year or 2 enough to maybe fight HD......hell even I don't really think it could *L* in any case BR needs to get to 100GB needs to be cheap and needs to be stable to win and the way things are going tis not really any of thos and BR is leaning to be a PS3 game format only more than anything else,perhaps a business archive solution mabye? why do I have this feeling that business has better more stable thing 0-o.



3.look at oblivion to buy all the extra is like 20-50$ more so they will try and go nuts with the extras and hope people over a 1-3 year time will buy all the extra crap for it.

TO me games are already suffering from quality issues from programing to balancing to basic quality control and beta testing if they start degrading things more to sale as add ons then they have made their grave and once the zombie horde of casual gamers figure it out they will "help" that game into the ground or so I hope...but frankly consumers are dum they don't pay attention when it comes time to vote and they mindlessly consume bad games never thinking for a seconded that games could be 120% better..

4.the 360 is piss poor but the PS3 costs to much and the WII is Nintendo and forever being snubbed by "mature" gamers well..immature gamers anyway *L*

the 360 is almost in a better place than the Xbox was even tho the Xbox had better quality games/hardware wise, not great but 2 or 3 levels above the 360s piss poor launch,since things are so fcked up right now the 360 can gain a better foot hold even tho its still a 1.5 system the programming will get better and if they make HD games it can fight the PS3 evenly ,even in the long run the PS3 and 360 are like the Xbox and PS2 when it comes to graphics the PS3 has the power but its price will keep it from getting anywhere and this gives the 360 a chance to grow and adapt ,I still think MS might drag out the Xbx 2 in 3-4 years hopefully they will just finish building on the 360 before making a new system.

a perfect 360 revision would come with a HD and full BWC and a HD DVD drive under 250$ they could do in as soon as 2 years as a mini relaunch of it if they did that I could respect them a bit more even tho they will always sux for all the anti consumer stuff they are doing with their OS.

As you know zippy I don't think the last XBox nor this one are about 'beating' Sony in the sense of outselling them.
My opinion is that they are part of a gradual strategy that has, so far, successfully seen Sony reduced from holding the majority share of the market to merely holding the largest minority.

I reckon it'll be the next 'XBox' or even the one after that that will be intended to outsell Sony.

It all boils down to Microsoft being much bigger and much richer than even a company like Sony.

If they decide to up the pace and get really ruthless in pricing the XBox 360 (and the HD-DVD add-on) things could get very very intersting soon.

I expect them to begin making moves at the time of the PS3 launch in each region.
That ought to be soon in the US
(like I said before I rate efforts in Japan as a pointless exercise. They ought to get a Japanese partner and rebadge as a Japanese product! lol
That won't happen but does highlight the truth of the Japanese market)

For those interested here's the latest on the VC-1 compression advances.

Amir Microsoft/HD DVD insider over at avsforums.com

Well, I am pleased to let you in on where the future holds for titles in VC-1. We have now made another breakthrough in quality improvements as evidenced by two recent encodes which clocked at less than 10 mbit/sec, with one less than 9 mbit/sec!

Yes, you read this right. We are now able to go below the 10 mbit/sec barrier. And this is not some random, special case, easy to encode content. One of the titles above is a major motion picture you would recognize in an instant with a ton of action.

What is more, the encoder is so efficient and good in its automatic analysis/encode mode that the need for hand tuning is sharply reduced. One of the above titles didn’t need any manual optimizations despite the remarkably low data rate!

Given this breakthrough, we are going to see more titles appear at average rate of less than 10 mbit/sec, bringing the general range lower by 20% to 30%. So no longer will I use the 12-15 mbit/sec for rule of thumb .

What does this mean in reality? It means we only need 4.5 gigabytes per hour for video at 10 mbit/sec. So a red laser disc (sans audio/extras) can hold 2 hours of superb quality video, HD DVD-15 can support 3.3 hours and HD DVD-30, a whopping 6.7 hours! We can even do more in 9 mbit/sec.

What is more, with this improvement, we also save in peak rate requirement since the same efficiency kicks in there.

Of course, this is not to say all movies and all content will go this low. But that there is a significant saving here across all. Note that the rates in some cases are less than half of what was used in some HD DVD launch titles! We have come far in less than 12 months….

Net, net, we are getting pretty close to 3:1 advantage over MPEG-2! I let you ponder the impact of this on the format war

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=718689

..... ok so, does anyone want to try and tell me why you really 'need' Blu-ray's capacity over HD-DVD for HD movies now?

It also looks like the 45gb HD-DVD discs may not now be needed for movies at all too.

hughjars
I don't think MS could beat Sony ,however by being even with them they can "win" thats what I mean when I talk about being even and fighting the ps3.

I thought HD DVD did have a better codec dose this out prove it or can BR use it to? 0_o


the devil is in the codecs if HD can get a solid codec that "lossless" yet compresses data at a rate of 2 or 4 times then a 15GB HD disc can be a 30-60 disc.

I think the big deal about this is that now VC-1 can be a common encoding for both Blu-ray and HD-DVD which will save the industry a fortune.

It also brings forward the day of the dual format player too I'd say.....the more similarity the formats share the more easing the risk of providing for both?

Check this -

from dvdfile.com
'Mixed Messages Concerning the Potential for a Hybrid Player

It was reported that at a recent CEA industry forum, proponents form both the HD DVD camp and the Blu-ray Disc camp sparred verbally. Mark Knox represented the HD DVD Promotion Group.
Pioneer senior vice president of product development and Blu-ray Disc Association spokesman Andy Parsons represented the other camp.
Like good politicians tend to do, Knox and Parsons stuck to their predefined messages.

But there was one notable exception.

Neither voiced a problem with the concept of a universal player that would accommodate both HD disc formats.
They stated that no legal impediments exist in either format’s licensing agreements to preclude the development and marketing of such a player.

This would seem to contradict previous reports that Sony’s licensing agreement specifically forbids Blu-ray Disc technology from being integrated into a hybrid player'.