Rich Fiscus
17 Jun 2008 3:35
At the Home Entertainment Media Summit in Los Angeles there were a lot of bold predictions about the future of Blu-ray among entertainment industry insiders. All in all though there was apparently more heat than light.
Disney representatives in particular seem to have come wearing their rose colored glasses. Lori MacPherson, Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment general manager North America predicted that by 2015 Blu-ray will account for 56% of entertainment sales, while online video will only amount to 6%. That seems confident to say the least with online video at least appearing ready to take off at any time.
Gordon Ho, representing Disney marketting was also very upbeat. He talked about the importance of BD-Live, which studios and player manufacturers are counting on to boost sales this year, but given Disney's somewhat limited view of it's possibilities (is chat really the best thing they could come up with?) it remains to be seen how much difference it will really make.
One voice of caution was that of senior analyst at NPD, Russ Crupnick. He pointed out the increased competition faced by Blu-ray from video games, and the Wii in particular. “There are people who’d be spending time with movies on a Saturday night who are now spending it with their game consoles,” said Crupnick.
And of course all the talk in the world about the reasons for HDTV owners to buy into Blu-ray ignores the elephant in the room that is HDTV adoption. There's a reason that MacPherson is still predicting 38% of sales belonging to regular DVD as far out as 2015. In order for consumers to even care about Blu-ray they almost have to have a HDTV, For many of those who haven't bought their first one yet they're still priced out of reach.