eatsushi; always good to chew this one over with you. Respect. ;)
I think (as I've said often before) that things are far to early in this for anyone to be taking too much notice of the sweeping and generalised claims of the fanclub kind.
Things are not exactly 'rosy' for
Blu-ray.
A 'relatively good' holiday season is still only relatively good.....as indeed has the
Blu-ray lead been to date.
One can;t get away from the fact that it's still a level of sales that's less than 1% of total high def disc sales and so nothing like the huge consequence some are determined to insist it might be (or, to them, must be).
The biggest fly in the ointment for making the kinds of big claims some insist upon is that everybody is making money right now on high def disc sales.
There is no serious incentive for anyone to make any kind of move in the near-term (by which I mean the next 12mths).
Those who day-dream that a 'winner' will be declared or obvious by this X-mas are simply demonstrating their own wishful thinking.
There is at least another 12 - 18mths to go before we even get close to that IMO.
Content will eventually follow the money and as the inexpensive HD
DVD players come in (at the price of a decent $100/$150/$200 DVD player that also offers excellent
HD DVD) that is where I see the much wider and larger a/v market going.
Downloads too will crimp the expectations of many in this too (and I note the partnerships being formed between Microsoft and several
BD studios).
But I think it is obvious and clear that PS3, for all the initial boost it has given Blu-ray, cannot 'win' this war.
It can continue to be a profitable proprietary format (which is still where I see it and BD heading, ultimately) but without PS3 BD died and was buried long ago.
The BD side have a major problem with even finishing their own format as 'profile 1.1' is showing very clearly (IIRC only the $2000
Denon and the pending
Samsung dual format player are definitely compliant).
That might mean nothing to many PS3 owners but many of the a/v minded will care.
That 'cheap'
Sony S300 Blu-ray player isn't 'profile 1.1 compliant' for example and who knows how the a/v enthusiasts will react when the PS3 is finally openly admitted as non-compliant?
It's far too early and things are far too small right now to be piling anyone's hope upon a holiday season this year
(or as I said in my view even next year).
The fundamental worry for BD must be that with under 400,000 HD DVD players HD DVD has almost caught up with the movie disc sales numbers generated by 3.7 million PS3s.
The HD DVD numbers continue to grow as prices fall and Sony can hardly relaunch the PS3.
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss imports - particularly on the HD DVD side (region free every-time is a benefit of HD DVD that is widely known and appreciated.....and international on-line buying could hardly be easier).
I was actually surprised to find that HD DVD had the greater amount of content (I expected this to happen later in the year as the '600 HD DVD titles by years end' that was claimed at CES came to be) and that BD actually has so little that is genuinely exclusive.
.....and I really don't think I avoided Nextgen's point; he mentioned exclusives and I gave the facts and figures back.
They probably aren't the ones he was expecting (some were news to me I must admit) but nevertheless there they are.