Blu-ray group claims HD DVD sales claims are inflated

Quote:

---

Oh great, now the camps are going to really start picking at each other. Makes me personally want to not bother with either one, ever.

Quote:

---

The Blu-ray camp feels the reports should include PC optical drives and the PlayStation 3 which they argue would put Blu ray as the dominant HD format in Europe, somewhere at 90 percent of the market.

---

OK lets be fair, the optical drives probably could be included but the totals are made for "Standalone" products which is why neither HD DVDs 360 attachment nor the PS3 is included. Same reason for the computer drives, as they are not standalone players.

The facts that really matter are not, if you really think about it, which camp sells more hardware its all about the software. The more disks you sell the better off your product is.

You could sell 5,000 DVD players and 25,000 VHS players but if 500,000 DVDs are sold compared to 50,000 VHS tapes which product is doing better?

My point being, if one of the camps disk sales gets a good foothold above the other then they might be able to say they are "Winning" but not the "Winner" as I believe that no one will win this "war".

Peace

---

Your wrong the more players you have the more disks will be sold for the format and the studios will see that and start to change to accommodate the market. If HD-DVD has a larger installed base then blu ray or vise versa and keeps it up the market will start to change to accommodate that shift when the studio sees they can make more money going with format X because there are more POSSIBLE customers to sell your disks to bc customers are not buying Blu-ray or HD-DVD disks unless they have a player for the format. If you dont have the hardware your not going to buy the software.

Originally posted by error5:

---

with the TL51 spec is that there is no guarantee of backward compatibility with existing HD DVD players and drives.

---

- .....and just as equally there is no guarantee that they cannot.

Originally posted by error5:

---

TL51 needs a spin rate of 1.5x according to amirm at avsforums. This increased spin rate results in increased data rate from 36mbps to 54mbps (which is the current data rate in BD drives). There is no guarantee that current hardware can be upgraded to handle the 1.5x spin rate and higher data rates.

---

- .....and as I showed previously on these forums the very first gen 1 drives (the NEC HD 1100A) can produce a spin speed of X1.5 - in fact the blurb specifically mentions a X2 speed.
Cheeck it out for yourself.....

http://www.cloetens.be/custom/home/hd_dvd.pdf

Originally posted by error5:

---

Like eatsushi asked in an earlier thread - Will my XA2 be able to play movies on these TL51's?

---

- IIRC the HD A2/XA2 are a later gen drive than the first A1/HD1100 versions, so I expect that answer to be yes.

Of course it's just as prossible that the new 51gb size becomes a 'standard' really only used on notepad/laptop & PC drives.

It might be that retail movies only use a new 17gb per layer 34gb dual layer disc, which might be handy for providing the little bit of extra room some claim they'll need for extended version of Lord of the Rings
(or whatever other minute fraction of the movie studios' output some wish to sieze upon to 'prove' something either way about what the format can or cannot do with every possible extra crammed in).

Originally posted by error5:

---

Toshiba has been mum on the matter and from the language of HD DVD and MS insiders in different forums there is a big possibility that you'll need to buy a still-unreleased 3rd gen player to handle these TL51's properly.

---

- You don't really think they're going to spike the guns of that little announcement prematurely do you?

......and to return to the question.
If TL 51gb is HD DVD's max, what then for all those who claim size is all in this?

Quote:

---

and as I showed previously on these forums the very first gen 1 drives (the NEC HD 1100A) can produce a spin speed of X1.5 - in fact the blurb specifically mentions a X2 speed.

---

I also know about the specs of the NEC. In order to be compatible with TL51 and the 1.5 spin rate the drive has to be able to read in multiples of 1.5 - 1.5x, 3.0x, 4.5x etc - to match the required data rate of 54mbps. The NEC can only read 1x and 2x (not 1.5x) and the data rate of that drive and all current HD DVD drives is 36mbps. Plus, it's not just the drive itself that has to be updated. The rest of the hardware has to be able to handle the increased data rate.

Just read the insider's thread in avsforums. There's still no guarantee from the experts that TL51 will work in current machines. It's amazing how you can be so sure and the experts cannot. In fact amirm speculates that the third layer will contain only HD PIP information. Believe me I'll be the first one to celebrate if my XA2 will be able to handle these but as of now there's nothing to assure me.

Quote:

---

Question:Would this be a case where TL51's would be needed to match BD's capacity (50 GB vs. 51 GB... equal; 2 1080p + 2 480p streams vs. 2 1080p streams... advantage BD; 2 (or 4, if the PiP is also lossless) TrueHD streams vs. 2 LPCM streams... advantage HD DVD)?

Amir Majidimehr: TL-51 does present an opportunity here. One could put the HD PiP on the third layer and the SD PiP on the first two. So to the extent current players can only play the first two layers, nothing is lost for the average consumer. And enthusiast could buy newer players which would handle the extras if they really cared.

---

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?p=202581

Quote:

---

You don't really think they're going to spike the guns of that little announcement prematurely do you?

---

Well seeing the number of users who have questions about TL51 it would be to Toshiba's advantage if they announced one way or the other thereby giving assurances to their established user base.

Originally posted by error5:

---

It's amazing how you can be so sure and the experts cannot.

---

- Hang on, I haven't made any claims on the basis of "being so sure" as you put it.

I am simply saying that you cannot speculate that it is open to question (as to whether the earlier drives will play 51gb) as if that were a one-way bet and the answer is most likely 'no'.

That was what I was getting at.
I've seen this mentioned previously and almost always from a POV as if it were the case that whilst it is not definitively known right now the answer is probably not.

That was the manner in which I think you were putting this and it is, IMO, utterly illogical and wrong.

You don't know for sure anymore than I do......but I have been able to show original early specs which indicate read speads greater than x1 (which some in the a/v community had originally contended was proof 51gb could not be used).

Originally posted by error5:

---

In fact amirm speculates that the third layer will contain only HD PIP information.

---

- .....and I fully respect Amir and agree he is a great source of info in all of this; but he is also connected and a genuine 'insider'
(unlike the legions of board members who have convinced themselves that they are cos they read a couple of posts at the favourite game fanzine site).

As a genuine connected insider Amir is extremely unlikely to give away anything 'big' (and this would be really 'big') prematurely.

It's also worth noting that when Amir talks about gen 1 players reading the first 2 layers he is by definition therefore saying that they will all read 17gb layers & the 34gb dual layer is no problem for any of them
(and it was my understanding that part of how they got the greater capacity per layer was higher spin & read speeds).

We'll just have to see but instead of erring on the side of saying they won't I think there is more than enough already out there to err on the side of expecting they will.

But either way neither of us have facts to prove this right now - and the relevant point there is surely 'either way'.

Quote:

---

It's also worth noting that when Amir talks about gen 1 players

---

The post I quoted is recent (July 2007) so amirm is referring to not only to gen 1 players but also gen 2 players including the A20 and XA2.

Quote:

---

I think there is more than enough already out there to err on the side of expecting they will.

---

I disagree. I think there's more out there that says we need a new 3rd gen player to play movies on TL51's - if they do come out.

Originally posted by error5:

---

The post I quoted is recent (July 2007) so amirm is referring to not only to gen 1 players but also gen 2 players including the A20 and XA2.

---

- That's fine but the point I was trying to make was the even the gen 1 players are expected to be able to read the 17gb layers, at least up to 34gb dual layer.

Originally posted by error5:

---

I disagree. I think there's more out there that says we need a new 3rd gen player to play movies on TL51's - if they do come out.

---

- Well we shall just have to wait & see.

But let's not be silly about this, you don't go to all the trouble of formally submitting the new 17gb/34gb/51gb spec to the DVD Forum on an 'if, but or maybe'.
They dotted all the 'i's and crossed all the 't's before it went off for approval.

51gb will come, the only issue is whether gen 1 & 2 players are stuck reading only 2 of the 3 layers.

I don't think it's a big deal, studios show no sign of needing more than 30gb to date so 34gb should be all bonus to them & gen 1 & 2 owners (and future releases if they do use 51gb TL discs are just going to need a little creativity in how the content is packaged and distributed across the layers).

Much as I can't prove it either way I have personally been expecting TL 51gb to be a PC thing to start with and fully usable on gen 3 players.

Quote:

---

I have personally been expecting TL 51gb to be a PC thing to start with and fully usable on gen 3 players.

---

So you're saying we should stop buying the current players and wait for 3rd gen players just to ensure compatibility with TL51's...

...and those of us who have the current players are left out in the cold with players unable to read the third layer.

That's very reassuring.

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

I have personally been expecting TL 51gb to be a PC thing to start with and fully usable on gen 3 players.

---

So you're saying we should stop buying the current players and wait for 3rd gen players just to ensure compatibility with TL51's...

...and those of us who have the current players are left out in the cold with players unable to read the third layer.

That's very reassuring.

---

I believe what hes saying is that the 51TD's wont be used for movies and if they do use them it will be 2 or 3 years after its launch so all the newer cheaper players could possibly play them,its not that much different than BRs 100GB.

Originally posted by ZIppyDSM:

---

I believe what hes saying is that the 51TD's wont be used for movies and if they do use them it will be 2 or 3 years after its launch so all the newer cheaper players could possibly play them,its not that much different than BRs 100GB.

---

So you're saying that all this hoopla about TL51 is all for nothing since BluRay still has a bigger disc with their BD50 for movies and BD100 for storage?

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

So you're saying we should stop buying the current players and wait for 3rd gen players just to ensure compatibility with TL51's...

---

- No, that's not what I said at all.

I am saying that for retail movies gen 1 & 2 players might end up in a situation where they are restricted to only being able to 'see' the first 2 17gb layers to a 34gb DL HD DVD disc.

We don't know if this is going to be the limit of their ability or not yet; it might even be that any restriction is limited to the gen 1 Toshiba HD A1 players and not the current gen 2 players.

We'll have to wait and see.

But definitive pronouncements either way are just being made by people who can't possibly know and those who do know are not saying categorically right now.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

...and those of us who have the current players are left out in the cold with players unable to read the third layer.

That's very reassuring.

---

- If movie discs never move beyond dual layers then what would you be worried about for?

Technology moves on, sooner or later you'd be replacing your player, the only difference would be that the later spec'd machines would have even greater capabilities (in this case - assuming retail movies do not go beyond dual layer - to read the 3rd layer of your PC burnt HD DVD discs.

None of that strikes me as any kind of worry or in any way lacking in 'assurance' at all.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

So you're saying that all this hoopla about TL51 is all for nothing

---

- How does that follow?

It would appear that to some that size is the most vital element in this.

HD DVD would thus have (with 51gb discs) not only the cost advantages but also the greatest size for back-up.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

since BluRay still has a bigger disc with their BD50 for movies and BD100 for storage?

---

- BD's 100gb & 200gb discs are nothing more than lab curiosities right now.

There is no sign of the new hardware that will be required to operate them nor the costs of either that hardware nor media itself......but if the troubles & expense they had getting their 50gb DL disc to market is anything to go by I wouldn't be holding my breath.

I'd also add that there's still no sign of BD's 50gb disc demonstrating anything especially 'superior' right now.
The best BD has done is merely match the best HD DVD has done.

In any event so much of that extra capacity (assuming it is used at all - a lot of Blu-ray movies are still being turned out on 25gb single layer discs right now) is claimed to be useful for 'extras'.
Apparently a shed-load of those 'extras' (in HD) is vital for Blu-ray owners.
If that's really the extent of the 'superiority' (and therefore what they think is worth the premium) you can keep it.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

Originally posted by ZIppyDSM:

---

I believe what hes saying is that the 51TD's wont be used for movies and if they do use them it will be 2 or 3 years after its launch so all the newer cheaper players could possibly play them,its not that much different than BRs 100GB.

---

So you're saying that all this hoopla about TL51 is all for nothing since BluRay still has a bigger disc with their BD50 for movies and BD100 for storage?

---

LOL
No I mean that the new BR/HDVD discs are not fully BWC and the movie industry wont take to them so quickly thus when they come out and Hollywood is inclined to use them players will be under 200,all in all HDef is a bunch of hoopla anyway, while they fight for something the mainstream will want they will overlook early adtopors more often than not.

Unlike DVD witch took years to get to DL,the Hdef is changing faster,I hope Dual players will put things into even faster gear, lower prices and maybe making Hdvd/BR like + -.

---

So after all that - the only thing definite right now is that you can't really flount TL51 at this time since no one knows the answers to:

1. Will the DVD Forum approve the TL51 spec or will one or more board members block its adoption?

2. If TL51 is approved will it be adopted by studios for movie releases or will it remain a data storage standard?

3. If TL51 movies are released will they play on current players?

Speaking of hoopla, the HD DVD Promotional Group shows that it can dish it out as well as BD:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/storie...04627245&EDATE=

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

So after all that - the only thing definite right now is that you can't really flount TL51 at this time since no one knows the answers to:

1. Will the DVD Forum approve the TL51 spec or will one or more board members block its adoption?

---

- That's a funny one, I gather some of the BDA people who are also members of the DVD Forum are now under investigation for trying to do exactly that.

It'll be interesting to see how that pans out.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

2. If TL51 is approved will it be adopted by studios for movie releases or will it remain a data storage standard?

---

- Either way it removes the 'size is all' base some claim to be making their judgements & decisions upon.

I could care less if it's 'PC only' cos so far I can see that HD DVD is missing nothing with the current size & codecs they're using.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

3.If TL51 movies are released will they play on current players?

---

- I think it's certain that they will 'play'.....the real issue is whether every layer will play on all (current) players.

We'll just have to wait and see about that - and it sounds like they are going to be smart enough about how they implement that so that those that might miss out on the third layer don't miss out on the genuine substance of the release.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

---

Speaking of hoopla, the HD DVD Promotional Group shows that it can dish it out as well as BD:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/storie...&EDATE=

---

- They're just starting to catch on how they have to play this game. :P

hughjars
Whats up man how you been?

Do you think Dual players will cause a quickening in the industry or will it be the same stagnate snail pace format war we have seen?

Originally posted by ZIppyDSM:

---

hughjars
Whats up man how you been?

---

- Not bad zippy, pi*sy weather here in Ireland for the time of year & making a real bu*mer of the summer so far, sadly.

(heavy rain + some flooding = welcome to global warming.
Slight irony with the UK & Ireland likely to experience floods & cold weather with it tho! Damn!
In continental Europe (central & eastern) they have had lethal heatwaves)

Hope things are good with you mate & that you're taking it easy.

Originally posted by ZIppyDSM:

---

Do you think Dual players will cause a quickening in the industry or will it be the same stagnate snail pace format war we have seen?

---

- I think we have years to go until this is sorted.
Unfortunately.

High def DVD of either flavour is just not 'visible' to the general public and I doubt that will change much until at least a couple more years have passed.

Even the management of Matsushita (probably the 2nd largest backers of Blu-ray after Sony) are publicly and openly talking of both formats being around in 2010 with them both combined only taking around 30 - 35% of the movie disc market (tbh I reckon that is highly optimistic).

People who are kidding themselves this will be over on the basis of this weeks/months/years/ X-mas's sales numbers are just deluded.

First of all even in the USA only around 30% of houses have an HD TV, in the UK it's around 10% & in Europe it's less than that.
It's a growing market but there is still a long way to go, that naturally limits the available possible 'penetration'.

But that at least gives everyone time to get to the kind of technology that will make things easy, cheap & appealing in the mass market.

For dual format players a lot depends on how quickly LG &