HD DVD standalones hit 750,000 in North America

damn that PS3 (not cause it sucks, its a great machine)
if its included in figures, then HD DVD is waayyy behind. if it's not then HD DVD is waaaay ahead.
so which side actually has the most players out in peoples homes?!?we may never know..until theres a winner to this little skirmish

Your headline writer got hoodwinked by the HD DVD Propaganda Group. The headline should not read "stand-alone players" but the deceptive new term "dedicated player," which also includes Xbox 360 machines, as the story notes. HD DVD Propaganda group did not breakout sales of "stand-alone players," so the comparison to Blu-ray stand-alone players is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

The add on should be counted as a player Does it play games? No. Does the add on do anything other then play HD-DVD movies disks No. So when a consumer buys it they are buying it to play HD-DVD movies bc thats all it does! The PS3 is not just a Blu-ray movie player its a game console that can play movies. Why can't you Blu-ray fan boys get that. When a consumer buys a PS3 whats is the consoles main purpose going to be? Playing ps3 games not playing Blu-ray movies true some might be used as a player only but the vast majority of PS3 owners bought it to play games. As far as some calling this story propaganda Really? Like the Blu-ray camp does not do the same thing when they have good news!

Here we go again.

Obviously the Blu-rat fanclub gets a little jittery when their beloved format's total dependence on a game console gets exposed.

- Count PS3s as Blu-ray players and it shows up their attachment rate for the poor performance it is.

- Don't count PS3s as players and it exposes Blu-ray for the laughably dependent-on-a-kids-game-console format it is.

Meanwhile HD DVD continues to sell very well this Q4 to the adult a/v market.

I belive black friday deal was $99 with 10 free movies or something. anyway, hd-dvd player is way cheaper than blu-ray. and it has great films like transformers that blu ray doesn't have. They didn't count ps3 and they shouldn't cause more than half of people who own ps3 doesn't know what a blu ray is.

HD-DVD player is behind if you compare it with ps3. But just stand alone player. Blu-ray is behind. Either way it's going to take more than a year to figure this out and i'm not spending any money till the war is over

blu ray software dominating, europe hd dvd is near death, japan lets not even talk about that LOL.

sony is on pace to move a ton of ps3s this holiday worldwide.

hughjars you still remind me of the lost japanese on the islands in WW2 who thought the war was still going strong years later.

wasnt every top 10 seller all blu ray except transformers which was like #6? software wins battles and this is HUMILIASHUUUUN!!1!!(counter strike players know what that is, old school)

its sad when you have to degrade yourself and call it the kiddy option now, seriously i feel sorry for you that you have stooped so low. :(

attach rates dont win wars, overall sales do and blu ray is RAEPing(4channers know what that means)

@Calimack ur too funny. n yea i notice that hughjars IS an HD DVD fanboy, cuz all his/her comments about HD DVD are good and all blu ray comments arent. Except s/he says it in the less fanboyish way. But you cant hide that fact that you really are one hughjars. Its evident by reading all your previous comments on HD DVD/Blu-ray.

As for HD DVD, this is good for them, but ppl can say all they want that PS3 doesnt count etc etc..in the end, sales is sales. 1/3 of that 750,000 is xbox360 HD add-on.

@justme81 ..if they can count the xbox360 add-on then Blu-ray can count PS3, cuz afterall, to use the add-on it starts with the GAME CONSOLE first. Just like all the PS3s.

Face it, right now anything that plays blu-rays or is a blu-ray disc, its beating HD DVD. Simple as that.

Originally posted by CaLiMaCk:

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attach rates dont win wars, overall sales do and blu ray is RAEPing(4channers know what that means)

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Actually, they do. I think what hughjars was saying is this: whenever the Blu-Ray camp comes out saying "we're winning in disc sales" they do not count the PS3 as a BD player. By doing so, it inflates the number of discs sold per player on the market, though we all know that PS3 owners probably own a few movies themselves.

When Blu-Ray camp decides to say they have more players on the market, they count the PS3 as a player, which significantly increases the number of "players" on the market.

It's a seesaw manipulation of numbers, and I'm not sure why everyone gets all caught up in it.

What's important is, HD formats have just recently eclipsed VHS sales. So, how many homes have a VHS player? I'm sure it's A LOT more than Blu-Ray, HD-DVD and PS3 combined. In fact, I would say there's almost one in every home.

Now, my point about attachment rate: how many of those VHS players are still in use? There are millions of VHS players in homes, but if VHS movies aren't selling, there goes the attachment rate, and then what do you have: A dead format.

Attach rates are meaningless and misleading especially for HD DVD and here's why:

They don't take into consideration the HD DVD owners who are on their 2nd or even 3rd player. I for one have a 1st gen HD-A1 and a 2nd gen HD-XA2. I know someone with the same 2 machines PLUS a 3rd gen HD-A35. I don't have the numbers for you but I would estimate that multiple unit owners make up a significant percentage of early adopters.

Now you don't really expect us to buy more than one copy of a movie right?

No, what hughjars is saying is:

When BR uses all player numbers (not just standalones) then the PS3 is counted; but when doing so the number of discs-per-player goes WAAYYY down.

When BR wants to show big numbers of disc-per-player units, they DON'T include the PS3, so that the less than 200K standalones look like they have a great number of discs-per-player.

Yeah, it's just a numbers manipulation, but as you can see here, so many PS3 fanboys use these skewed numbers in their "arguments".

And the reason the XBOX 360 HD-DVD add-on is counted as a standalone is that, like others have said, it's ONLY reason for being purchased is to watch movies. The PS3 may have a tiny number of people who bought it to only watch movies, but it's statistically insignificant.

@CaLiMaCk: Your extreme exaggeration and use of gamers insults only goes to prove hughjars assessment of the BR groupies as a "laughably dependent-on-a-kids-game-console format". That's hitting the nail dead center, bub.

Well, counting the HDDVD Xbox add-on as anything other than a standalone would be stupid. Like someone said above, it's sole purpose is to play HDDVD, nothing other than that. Meaning, people bought it to watch HDDVDs the same way they would buy a standalone. Some people just think that since it is partnered with the Xbox that it serves some kind of other purpose or something, or they're just too ignorant.

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..if they can count the xbox360 add-on then Blu-ray can count PS3, cuz afterall, to use the add-on it starts with the GAME CONSOLE first. Just like all the PS3s.

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Actually that's a misconception. The HD-DVD drive integrates nicely (and cheaply!) with a HTPC. I have the 360 but use the HD-DVD drive with my PC to watch and Rip HD movies. In fact I have never even connected the drive to my 360. That's one of the many reasons that the add-on should be counted in the overall totals.

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Actually that's a misconception. The HD-DVD drive integrates nicely (and cheaply!) with a HTPC. I have the 360 but use the HD-DVD drive with my PC to watch and Rip HD movies. In fact I have never even connected the drive to my 360. That's one of the many reasons that the add-on should be counted in the overall totals.

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Then maybe the PS3 can be a misconception cuz how many of PS3 owners mite have one because they just want a blu-ray player. It is the cheapest Blu-ray player after all. If anybody wanted a Blu-ray player wouldnt the PS3 be your choice too? I know a few ppl and costumers at work that have thought about getting a PS3 just cuz its the cheapest Blu-ray player and the ability to play games is a bonus for them. Which some of them do buy it for that reason.

There's another truth in this that is being over-looked (deliberately by some, I'm sure).

All the gen 3 Toshiba players are selling extremely well in Europe & the UK this Q4
(see the Amazon stats for proof of this if you like).

.....and as always when the Blu-ray camp start to depend on ratios and percentage leads you just know they are covering up for tiny numbers of actual discs sold.

They claimed they'd 'won' in Europe already (a market of several hundred million movie disc sales annually) after a laughable and mere 1 million sales, in over a year.
It would be truly pathetic if it wasn't so funny.

Sadly some people are really devoid of any critical thought-processes & just don't mind (or worse, actually like) being manipulated & lied to like that......

(BTW yes, the XBox 360 HD DVD add-on makes for an excellent PC HD DVD ROM drive, I just got rid of mine for a Toshiba HD EP35 - the Euro version of the A35, another outstanding machine & top value too.

For those interested the bare XBox 360 HD DVD ROM drive can now be had for £20/$40 on ebay if you look, it's very easy to hook up as an internal PC drive too; and like all HD DVD players it plays CDs and DVDs.....which kind of puts nicely into perspective the recent Blu-ray bragging about their $200 ROM drive)

Originally posted by hughjars:

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There's another truth in this that is being over-looked (deliberately by some, I'm sure).

All the gen 3 Toshiba players are selling extremely well in Europe & the UK this Q4
(see the Amazon stats for proof of this if you like).

.....and as always when the Blu-ray camp start to depend on ratios and percentage leads you just know they are covering up for tiny numbers of actual discs sold.

They claimed they'd 'won' in Europe already (a market of several hundred million movie disc sales annually) after a laughable and mere 1 million sales, in over a year.
It would be truly pathetic if it wasn't so funny.

Sadly some people are really devoid of any critical thought-processes & just don't mind (or worse, actually like) being manipulated & lied to like that......

(BTW yes, the XBox 360 HD DVD add-on makes for an excellent PC HD DVD ROM drive, I just got rid of mine for a Toshiba HD EP35 - the Euro version of the A35, another outstanding machine & top value too.

For those interested the bare XBox 360 HD DVD ROM drive can now be had for £20/$40 on ebay if you look, it's very easy to hook up as an internal PC drive too; and like all HD DVD players it plays CDs and DVDs.....which kind of puts nicely into perspective the recent Blu-ray bragging about their $200 ROM drive)

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Um hughjars your wrong on the price of the 360 HD-DVD ROM drive for the 360 being $40 its $67 unless your selling your own. I just went through 7 pages and all the 360 HD-DVD players new and even some used at $150+ .

you're calling him out on the fact that the prices on eBay are wrong? i think hes in the UK, so that might be a different site with different prices

Originally posted by Hettrick:

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Your headline writer got hoodwinked by the HD DVD Propaganda Group. The headline should not read "stand-alone players" but the deceptive new term "dedicated player," which also includes Xbox 360 machines, as the story notes. HD DVD Propaganda group did not breakout sales of "stand-alone players," so the comparison to Blu-ray stand-alone players is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

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I shouldn't even be responding to this, but i don't appreciate being called "hoodwinked" lol. The HD DVD add on for the 360 is indeed a standalone because that is all it is used for, it doesn't play games or do anything else for that matter. (unless of course you are buying a $150 USD dvd-rom)

Originally posted by sk8flawzz:

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you're calling him out on the fact that the prices on eBay are wrong? i think hes in the UK, so that might be a different site with different prices

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Its not that im calling him out and also you can check prices ranging from worldwide and US only and north america. I am just giving him a correction to his price figures.

@Hugh:

Where did they say they 'won' in Europe? Also, where can I find quarterly or monthly charts on consumer sales, more specifically for blu-ray/hddvd, but if you know of one that has the numbers for a large range of general products/companys etc that'd be pretty cool too. I'm always curious as to how well my favorite items are doing as far as popularity.

P.S. I think he saw a buy-it-now sale for $39 that was titled "Geniune XBOX 360 HD DVD Player w Remote & King Kong" but was really selling a headset.

This is good news for HD DVD.

However, what puzzles me is the non-existent effect of these players on discs sales. Here are the Nielsen numbers for Black Friday week:

BluRay - 72.6%
HD DVD - 27.4%

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/I...Disc_Sales/1218

Even if you added WalMart's figures to these I don't think they will make a difference. The WalMarts in our area lean heavily toward BluRay in terms of title selection. Besides WalMart is more of a SD DVD retailer.

I own HD DVD but now I'm thinking of "going purple."

Originally posted by spydah:

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Um hughjars your wrong on the price of the 360 HD-DVD ROM drive for the 360 being $40 its $67

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- Well sadly (for me) the guys not selling atm in the UK ebay.

But it is only £32 here

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/NEW-OFFICIAL-XBOX-...VQQcmdZViewItem

with £15 P&P.
So, OK right now the HD DVD ROM can be easily had for £47 or about $92.
That still beats all 7 shades of snot out of the Blu-ray drive's price of $200.

Originally posted by spydah:

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unless your selling your own.

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- Just sold mine, 1 year old & in spotless condition for £70 ($140) on ebay.

sciascia the BDA have been saying they've already won from CES in 2007, amusingly they used to claim a 4:1 lead in Europe, now it's just 'almost' 3:1.

You'll find Amazon list 'bestsellers', all gen 3 Toshiba's are in the top 31 in the UK Amazon, they're all in the top 26 in Amazon Germany (including the XBox 360 HD DVD add-on).

With high def (of both versions) still under 4% of the market it is simply absurd to use terms like "dominate" for anyone in this.

I think player comparison is BS. The only thing you need to look at is disk sales. That's where Blu-ray dominates.

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I think player comparison is BS. The only thing you need to look at is disk sales. That's where Blu-ray dominates.

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amen to that evz.

if your going to count apples to apples then you must do the same for oranges. why count the add-on for the 360 in the total hd players sold, but then fail to do the same (ps3) for blu-ray?

i believe the total add-on sales is somewhere around the 100,000 to 150,000+ for hd-dvd. so i guess again that big overall number is misleading in itself. but hey let the pr machines roll...

Originally posted by hade:

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if your going to count apples to apples then you must do the same for oranges. why count the add-on for the 360 in the total hd players sold, but then fail to do the same (ps3) for blu-ray?

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With all due respect, if you've actually read the 3 posts above that explain that, then your comment shows your lack of common sense. The argument has been laid out well, and if you disagree and have another take, let us know. But logic seems to escape you, apparently.
Sheesh.

Originally posted by evz:

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I think player comparison is BS. The only thing you need to look at is disk sales. That's where Blu-ray dominates.

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Or to put it more properly from BR fans:

"That's where Blu-ray dominates, so that's the only thing you need to look at."

Hehe.

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Originally posted by hade:

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if your going to count apples to apples then you must do the same for oranges. why count the add-on for the 360 in the total hd players sold, but then fail to do the same (ps3) for blu-ray?

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With all due respect, if you've actually read the 3 posts above that explain that, then your comment shows your lack of common sense. The argument has been laid out well, and if you disagree and have another take, let us know. But logic seems to escape you, apparently.
Sheesh.

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well actually i just woke up and read this for the first time. i wasn't aware that on a public forum, once discussion has begun that a person is no longer able to comment on the article itself. honestly i did not read through ever last post that was made and basically just gave MY 2 cents on the subject, whether they were already addressed or not i felt the need to say w/e it was that i thought. sorry to step on ye toes elfman, but i think you need to go back to the pole.

edit: later i will address total ps3 sales along with BR standalone sales and determine what percentage of ps3 owners actually need to use the ps3 as a br player to be able to compete with the number of hd-dvd players. already there are well over 100,000 standalone br players so subtract that from the total of hd-dvd sales number. then we'll determine US sales of the ps3 and divide that number into what is remaining from the first calculation. then we'll get the percentage the BR group needs to maintain competition in the market.

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With high def (of both versions) still under 4% of the market it is simply absurd to use terms like "dominate" for anyone in this.

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That's the best thing I've ever seen you say. Very true.

Originally posted by sciascia:

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That's the best thing I've ever seen you say. Very true.

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- Well thanks
(but I can honestly say that it's nothing I haven't been saying here for ages).

the term dominate gets thrown around and should not be confusing to most as when any camp says "dominate" they are not referring to total movie sales (ie including sales of standard DVDs). they are actually making reference to their market, the HD market. so yes even though sales may account for say the 4% that gets tossed around, it is fair to use the term dominate when of that 4% one group is clearly responsible for the MAJORITY of that said percentage. so it is my understanding that when the term is used they are not referring to the global market.

anyway here is some more info

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The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player.

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further findings

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20th Century Fox Home Entertainment's "Live Free or Die Hard," released the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, generated first-week sales that were 20% ahead of projections, in addition to nearly 100,000 Blu-ray Disc copies, said Steve Feldstein, the division's senior vp corporate and marketing communications.

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again all those hd-dvd players being sold really don't mean too much when the movies the general public may want are unavailable. hard for anyone to make an argument that FOX or really anyone else would want to shift to HD-DVD when sales of their own movie (in this example) are doing actually quite well and total movie sales are ahead of the curve.

one can also argue well HD-DVD has a large library and yes you would be correct but of said library, just how many of those movies are CURRENT RELEASES or even BLOCKBUSTER HITS? i keep repeating myself but it is fine and dandy that their library is extensive with old releases but only the hardcore fans are going to buy them up. no one is going to pay for a movie on HD-DVD that they only "liked" or even already owned on DVD.

they are fighting an uphill battle and so long as the BRgroup maintains their current support it'll be even harder for hd-dvd to prevail, even with the reports of player sales.

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Originally posted by sciascia:

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That's the best thing I've ever seen you say. Very true.

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- Well thanks
(but I can honestly say that it's nothing I haven't been saying here for ages).

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Thats the old excuse you use when you always backed into a corner....My lips are sealed let the truth speak for its self.

Originally posted by Hade:

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again all those hd-dvd players being sold really don't mean too much when the movies the general public may want are unavailable. hard for anyone to make an argument that FOX or really anyone else would want to shift to HD-DVD when sales of their own movie (in this example) are doing actually quite well and total movie sales are ahead of the curve.

one can also argue well HD-DVD has a large library and yes you would be correct but of said library, just how many of those movies are CURRENT RELEASES or even BLOCKBUSTER HITS? i keep repeating myself but it is fine and dandy that their library is extensive with old releases but only the hardcore fans are going to buy them up. no one is going to pay for a movie on HD-DVD that they only "liked" or even already owned on DVD.

they are fighting an uphill battle and so long as the BRgroup maintains their current support it'll be even harder for hd-dvd to prevail, even with the reports of player sales.

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This is the part where he say region coding comes into play which has been shot down because 1.The everyday Blue coller not going to import a movie thats double the cost of a HD-DVD movie...2.Region coding has come back to bite HD-DVD in the ass because this is the reason Newline is pushing all it HD-DVD titles back,Also the reason why HD-DVD hasn't seen a movie from The Weinstein Company group since Last summer because they are having a issue with it also & have said they are going to address there issues during this January CES2008.

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well actually i just woke up and read this for the first time.

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Ok, but these comments might answer what you are asking, so don't make it sound like I was out of line there.

Read first, please, or expect to be challenged on it.

As for BR sales, if I'm right there about 3m PS3s out there, so to make up the 650,000 units, that would mean that you'd have to be able to claim that around 22% of all PS3's are bought SOLELY to watch BR movies.

That's just no credible. At all. As I stated above, there are SOME, but my guess would be more around 0.5%-1% (3000 or so) I have maybe 10 friends that have PS3s, and only 1 of them even owns a BR movie, and that was just to show off his new Plasma. He's admitted that he has only put it in to demo, and hasn't even watched it all the way through. THESE ARE GAMERS first and foremost, and the PS3 is a great gaming machine. It is NOT a media console for the average target user out there, and I don't think it every would be. (Oh, and I'd say the same thing about the Xbox360 if it had a built-in HD-DVD drive.)

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well actually i just woke up and read this for the first time.

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Ok, but these comments might answer what you are asking, so don't make it sound like I was out of line there.

Read first, please, or expect to be challenged on it.

As for BR sales, if I'm right there about 3m PS3s out there, so to make up the 650,000 units, that would mean that you'd have to be able to claim that around 22% of all PS3's are bought SOLELY to watch BR movies.

That's just no credible. At all. As I stated above, there are SOME, but my guess would be more around 0.5%-1% (3000 or so) I have maybe 10 friends that have PS3s, and only 1 of them even owns a BR movie, and that was just to show off his new Plasma. He's admitted that he has only put it in to demo, and hasn't even watched it all the way through. THESE ARE GAMERS first and foremost, and the PS3 is a great gaming machine. It is NOT a media console for the average target user out there, and I don't think it every would be. (Oh, and I'd say the same thing about the Xbox360 if it had a built-in HD-DVD drive.)

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Your 10 friends don't makeup the majority of the Blu-Ray supporters & what they think, if these people are gamers first why is it that more Blu-Ray are selling than HD-DVD even with 6 million PS3 & 200,000 standalones on the market if everyone was thinking like that there would be on lead for Blu-Ray at all so your comment is completely of false.

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well actually i just woke up and read this for the first time.

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Ok, but these comments might answer what you are asking, so don't make it sound like I was out of line there.

Read first, please, or expect to be challenged on it.

As for BR sales, if I'm right there about 3m PS3s out there, so to make up the 650,000 units, that would mean that you'd have to be able to claim that around 22% of all PS3's are bought SOLELY to watch BR movies.

That's just no credible. At all. As I stated above, there are SOME, but my guess would be more around 0.5%-1% (3000 or so) I have maybe 10 friends that have PS3s, and only 1 of them even owns a BR movie, and that was just to show off his new Plasma. He's admitted that he has only put it in to demo, and hasn't even watched it all the way through. THESE ARE GAMERS first and foremost, and the PS3 is a great gaming machine. It is NOT a media console for the average target user out there, and I don't think it every would be. (Oh, and I'd say the same thing about the Xbox360 if it had a built-in HD-DVD drive.)

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Your 10 friends don't makeup the majority of the Blu-Ray supporters & what they think, if these people are gamers first why is it that more Blu-Ray are selling than HD-DVD even with 6 million PS3 & 200,000 standalones on the market if everyone was thinking like that there would be on lead for Blu-Ray at all so your comment is completely of false.

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Could not agree more!

ummm 22% would not have to have purchased a ps3 "SOLEY" for the reason of playing blu-rays but they would need 22% of all ps3 owners to purchase movies. someone can still purchase a ps3, play games and watch movies and they would still be added into that magic number of 22%.

1% of 3million is not 3000 and even if we use your example of YOUR 10 friends basically every tenth person uses the ps3 for watching movies and gaming or just watching movies, would mean that roughly 300,000 users are watching movies on the ps3. not anywhere near your 3000 estimate.

Originally posted by nextgen76:

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Thats the old excuse you use when you always backed into a corner.

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- What "old excuse"?

It's a statement of fact you Blu-boys just can't abide to hear.

.....not that I have actually (ever) been "backed into a corner" in any way by the likes of you. :P

Originally posted by nextgen76:

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...My lips are sealed let the truth speak for its self.

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- Jeeez, if only.

Hade rambling on to explain how (to him/her) an early, insignificant and immature market that stands at less than 4% of the retail disc market (and is currently divided 60:40) is incredibly significant proves nothing but what Hade's opinion is.

That's all it is.

It's one he/she is entitled to (of course) but it's hardly even remotely 'fact'.

@hade:

I think you have some valid points there - and I disagree with the "rambling" comment.

First of all, the Black Friday Nielsen numbers were very highly anticipated since it is the first big shoppping day of the season here in the US. I myself was aghast at how badly HD DVD was beaten. I was expecting something in the vicinity of 55:45 but 72.6:27.4 was a total surprise.

Secondly, your point about content is also valid IMO. I was expecting the Star Trek box to counteract the Die Hard movies but unfortunately this was not to be. I guess there weren't too many Trekkies out there with HD DVD players and $130 for the ST:TOS box. Besides any die-hard Trekkie will already have the entire 4 seasons of ST:TOS on DVD by now.

The other factor that could explain the rout is if the majority of HD DVD players bought in the last few weeks are still unopened and are intended as holiday gifts. I myself have 2 HD-A2's bought at $99 still in their original boxes and now nicely gift wrapped for my father and brother-in-law.

Anyway, this is indeed a surprising development and I'm sure the studio execs are keeping an eye on these numbers. I'm also interested in seeing how the numbers after cyber-Monday turn out.

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Your 10 friends don't makeup the majority of the Blu-Ray supporters & what they think, if these people are gamers first why is it that more Blu-Ray are selling than HD-DVD even with 6 million PS3 & 200,000 standalones on the market if everyone was thinking like that there would be on lead for Blu-Ray at all so your comment is completely of false.

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I mentioned those guys as anecdotal evidence. You don't seem to be getting the point: STANDALONE PLAYERS was the subject, and someone who buys a movie for their game machine will NOT have the same media purchasing habits as someone who owns a dedicated player. This will become more evident when the HD market gets going more, as opposed to only 4% of the disc market.

Originally posted by error5:

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First of all, the Black Friday Nielsen numbers were very highly anticipated since it is the first big shoppping day of the season here in the US. I myself was aghast at how badly HD DVD was beaten. I was expecting something in the vicinity of 55:45 but 72.6:27.4 was a total surprise.

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Good point about the gifts, I think that's the case as well.

Also people, remember that with all of the BOGO BR specials... both discs are counted as purchases, whereas the "5 free" and "8 free" HD-DVDs with player purchases are NOT. So the numbers will be inflated just for that reason if nothing else.

As I've said several times before, I believe that both formats will be around for at least another year, and can co-exist that way. But I believe that around early spring next year we'll be sing some separation from one or the other, my judgment tells me it'll be HD-DVD. (unless Warner wants to end it now by choosing a side.)

HD DVD standalones hit 750,000 in North America,

With a North American Population of 514,600,000

that means that 1 in every 686.133333 people have one,

well i guess the format war is finally over, lol

Almost Forgot

Playstation 3 sales Total for North America 1,058,700

Originally posted by Matt355:

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Almost Forgot

Playstation 3 sales Total for North America 1,058,700

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That's good to know, and it makes sense why Blu wins each and EVERY week

Originally posted by error5:

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The other factor that could explain the rout is if the majority of HD DVD players bought in the last few weeks are still unopened and are intended as holiday gifts.

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...or maybe those who bought the cheaper players aren't ready to pay early adopter prices for HD media.

Basically everyone here is debating over pure speculations. These numbers are not completely accurate <i>yet</i> for many different reasons. The real numbers to debate will be after Q4 is over and all the dust of Christmas has settled. By then I'm sure all the numbers from all stores, even online, will be added up so we can all get the real picture of where each format stands.

Originally posted by sciascia:

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Basically everyone here is debating over pure speculations. These numbers are not completely accurate <i>yet</i> for many different reasons.

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Remember that the Nielsen numbers are released weekly. These numbers are accurate as they pertain to sales from November 19 to the 25th in the case above. Although they don't include all retailers (as Walmart as a rule does not release sales figures) thay are a good representation since they reflect >50 percent of all retailers including online (Best Buy, Circuit City, K Mart, amazon.com etc). As a sampling tool the Nielsens are fairly representative of the whole picture.

The Nielsen reports also include year-to-date and since-inception numbers.

They may not show the whole picture but these numbers are eagerly anticipated by those who follow these formats and are a hot debate topic in some forums.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=943668

The problem for anyone pinning their hopes on Nielson to show them what is going to happen is that it only reflects a snapshot of activity at this point when the market is tiny and deeply immature.

It tells us nothing about major future events in the works (like, for instance, film studio plans or the the 3 coming Chinese brands of very inexpensive HD DVD players) or production costs and the resultant profitability companies can look forward to.

Unless you know about those kinds of numbers then the rational of the major companies in this will remain matters one can only speculate about on the information we have that has been made public to date.

Basically all Nielson shows us is that high def (of either flavour) at this point in time isn't selling very well.
We might reasonably consider that freebie movies is putting a damper on disc sales but we won't really know either way on that for a few weeks or maybe a couple of months.

All ways around IMO it is sheer folly (and wishful thinking) to imagine that company policies are being decided on this week or months or even this years Nielson numbers.
The big players in this will decide on one basis only, and that is profitability.

Which is a big pity for Blu-ray. :P

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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...or maybe those who bought the cheaper players aren't ready to pay early adopter prices for HD media.

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Interesting observation. So if cheaper players don't necessarily translate to increased HD media sales does this mean that new owners still buying regular DVD's and are using these players only for their upconverting ability?

With 750,000 standalones in NA I would also expect the Nielsen numbers to be closer to 55:45. Or are we underestimating the PS3 effect here?

so basically your saying its wrong for anyone on here to "speculate" as you term it, but actually that is ALL YOU DO. you have no hard numbers, insider information, transaction costs, technological costs etc, do you? if so please share.

personally i don't see what is wrong with people interpreting numbers from reliable sources and coming up with their own ideas for discussion. the great thing with debating or discussion is the different insight one gets from either side. i might be far left and pro blu-ray but when i hear arguments from someone pro hd-dvd i actually get to see things differently (due to my own ignorance at times) and possibly may learn a thing or two. i might even even change my rational on the subject.

you site higher transaction costs associated with blu-ray but what hard evidence do you have to support such claims? i hope its not a statement from an exec at Paramount (or really any other HD-DVD camp member) because that would just be speculating, now wouldn't it. if you don't see it as that then where are your numbers?

you keep talking about flooding the market with these cheap players, but as i said before what are you going to watch on them? eatshi and error5 both make good points (which i probably wouldn't have initially thought about) as to why we have yet to see a take off in HD-DVD sales with all the players sold.

so again when a person gets an HD-DVD player for xmas and wants to own DIEHARD,simpsons,pirates of caribbean, etc etc., but can't get it on HD-DVD, i guess their only options are: A.) get a blu-ray player or B). buy the movie on DVD. both options don't do ANYTHING for the HD-DVD camp now do they? so really what good does flooding the market do?

you'd have a stronger point or argument if you could somehow determine that hd-dvd was getting more exclusive support or that companies where going from blu-ray exclusive to being neutral. of course for you to make such argument all you would have at the moment is pure speculation, so really why bother, right?

i personally think the nielson numbers should be looked at and used as reference for coming up with an analysis. if not then what else is there? pure speculation,.....maybe?

Originally posted by hughjars:

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Basically all Nielson shows us is that high def (of either flavour) at this point in time isn't selling very well.

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LOL! Nice try hughjars but we both know the real reason why the Neilsen numbers are released every week: It so supporters of both sides have something to argue about. IMO the Neilsen threads on avsforums are some of the best sources of morbid entertainment on the internet. Too bad they took away the best parts.

Originally posted by hughjars:

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Basically all Nielson shows us is that high def (of either flavour) at this point in time isn't selling very well.

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That's one way of looking at the numbers.

However, I can assure you that to the die-hard HD DVD supporter the 72:28 ratio means a totally different thing. He doesn't care about how his side compares with regular DVD - only how his side compares with the enemy: BluRay. That's how the morbid entertanment starts on avsforums. ;)

Think of each week's numbers as a single frame in a motion picture. Each frame gives you a part of the picture but you need to watch the entire film to get the whole story. Hence the YTD and SI numbers.

@eatsushi: For another source of morbid entertainment - go to the highdefdigest forums:

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=27817

Originally posted by hade:

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so basically your saying its wrong for anyone on here to "speculate" as you term it

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- Hade, if you're going to debate this then great, feel free.

Just don't start trying on that cr@p of telling me what you think I'm saying, stick to what I've actually said, k?

We'll all get a long a hell of a lot better.

Originally posted by hade:

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but actually that is ALL YOU DO.

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- You're missing the point.

I've nothing against speculation
(provided it's backed in some regard at least with some data or background events).

It's the 'weight' people give to the data that I find highly questionable at times.

Originally posted by hade:

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you have no hard numbers, insider information, transaction costs, technological costs etc, do you?

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- So what do you call events like the Disney DVD Forum vote, then?
Or the fact that China has settled on HD DVD as their format of choice.
Or the fact that Chinese HD DVD is identical to 'our' HD DVD excepting a case logo and a firmware?
Or the (minimum) 3 other brands of Chinese HD DVD player coming?
Or Lionsgate working with Microsoft with the XBox 360 HD downloads?
Or the fact that (despite the blu-fans insisting it would never happen this year) HD DVD broke the $200 and then the $100 price barrier?
Or the fact that 51gb is now a reality?
Or the fact that Paramount said as clear as day that Blu-ray imposes costs that negate much of the short-term sales number lead?
Or the fact that Paramount dumped Blu-ray at all?

Originally posted by hade:

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personally i don't see what is wrong with people interpreting numbers from reliable sources and coming up with their own ideas for discussion.

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- ....and I have never said different.

I am though entitled to my own take on the matter, am I not?

Originally posted by hade:

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you site higher transaction costs associated with blu-ray but what hard evidence do you have to support such claims?

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- Paramount said it loud and clear and I also happen to know a guy connected to a small independent movie business.
Blu-ray imposes a lengthy and demanding contract on independents as well as expensive fees.

Originally posted by hade:

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i hope its not a statement from an exec at Paramount (or really any other HD-DVD camp member) because that would just be speculating, now wouldn't it.

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- Er, no.
Not when they come out (having spent a year making Blu-ray movies) and say it repeatedly in public statements.
Of all people Paramount are entitled and able to say the facts of the matter.
Where the hell are they "speculating" in that?

Originally posted by hade:

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you keep talking about flooding the market with these cheap players, but as i said before what are you going to watch on them?

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- I'd have thought that was pretty obvious.
People are most likely watching a lot of SD DVD, up-scaled very nicely on them.
Just as we know many PS3 owners are doing likewise (if they are using them a video players at all).

HD DVD merely recognises reality and instead of (for now) pushing disc sales are going after the (far larger than a mere game console market)a/v market.

Originally posted by hade:

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so again when a person gets an HD-DVD player for xmas and wants to own DIEHARD,simpsons,pirates of caribbean, etc etc., but can't get it on HD-DVD, i guess their only options are: A.) get a blu-ray player or B). buy the movie on DVD.

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- Look at the DVD sales numbers, what do you really think is going on with people facing that choice?
(not that it's the slightest bit different for a Blu-ray owner wanting Shrek3, Transformers or say Star Trek....although they at least face a much kinder price ticket to go dual)

Originally posted by hade:

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both options don't do ANYTHING for the HD-DVD camp now do they? so really what good does flooding the market do?

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- Well if you insist in seeing things in such a short-termist manner then I guess not.

My own take on this is that, watching their actions, the HD DVD side are very happy to be entering the mainstream mass-market & expanding their user base for now.

If people are going to stick with DVD for some (and lets not kid ourselves, they are) then that is ok, it is HD DVD that can easily 'afford' that.

Compared to Blu-ray HD DVD has cost practically nothing in R&D, unlike Blu-ray which requires brand new (and difficult) production methods and lines, existing DVD production lines and methods are very easy to change to HD DVD and again at very little cost.

All of which makes HD DVD the cheaper (and therefore more profitable) format.

HD DVD does not 'owe' it's investors a small fortune like Blu-ray does.
HD DVD can afford the long game far more easily than Blu-ray
(which is why we have had the relentless propaganda about a BD win all year, they needed to knock HD DVD out of the game as fast as possible. Sadly for them, they failed.)

With the new triple layer Total discs (IMO the over-looked but more important triple layer disc that was approved by the DVD Forum recently) we'll also be seeing the distinction between SD & HD DVD formats blur further.
All movies on DVD/HD DVD from the HD DVD side will contain both formats on the one side (ie not a flipper like the old combo discs)soon and at around similar pricing as regular retail DVD is now (ie normal retail DVD prices, but not bargain bucket prices).
If you have an HD TV and an HD DVD player you'll get HD if not you'll get SD.
It's the simple & elegant solution (and it's inexpensive too).

Originally posted by hade:

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you'd have a stronger point or argument if you could somehow determine that hd-dvd was getting more exclusive support or that companies where going from blu-ray exclusive to being neutral.

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- Well Paramount was not that long ago for a start.

....and I'd wait a couple of months.
CES 2008 is going to be very interesting.

Just stop expecting very fast moves (one after the other).
With the US HD TV market penetration around the 30% level (the UK is just under 20% and continental Europe is just over 10%) there is no great rush.

The longer this goes on now the worse it is for Blu-ray, it is Blu-ray that is not getting the return on their huge investments
(not to mention CE companies that have spent loads on new products and seen them welded to the store shelves and go obsolete with little or no sales at all).

.....and we've yet to witness the 'profile 1.1' and 'profile 2.0' debacle.

Originally posted by hade:

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i personally think the nielson numbers should be looked at and used as reference for coming up with an analysis. if not then what else is there? pure speculation,.....maybe?

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- I have never said the Nielson numbers are without any value whatsoever.

I have said that attaching vast weight to them alone and expecting people in the industry to be making long-term strategic decisions on the basis of them is short-sighted and wrong.

That's nothing like the same thing as you're trying to tell me I've said.

Well obviously the other two formats have a far better jump on the market, but what about that HD VMD? Do you know the tech specs on that media, Hugh?

I read somewhere that it is sort of the median between the two better known HD formats but that probably was a bit twisted. Also, since it is a red laser media, wouldn't it be possibly less expensive to manufacture than violet and blue laser medias since it is pretty much an update to an existing technology? I also read that the price for the consumer is around HDDVD's.

Can you shed a little more light on that media for me? Or maybe direct me somewhere that can?

HD VMD has been discussed here a few times, most recently here -

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/12001.cfm

The specs are around (easy google), maybe start around here -

http://www.nmeinc.com/technology_authoring.aspx

http://www.nmeinc.com/technology_hdvmdplayer.aspx

Personally I think they have made a couple of mistakes so far.
Firstly I would not have gone up against either high def format so much, I think their chances are far greater if they go with making more of being an extension of existing red laser/DVD but with additional capabilities.

We'll all have red laser DVD for some time yet so it's not as if all red laser/DVD sellers have had to shut up shop just cos HD DVD or Blu-ray have come along.

I think they have also miscalculated prices badly, after the recent HD DVD price cuts HD VMD doesn't look especially inexpensive at all (IIRC they are around the same price).

It remains to be seen how much their media and burners will be but there might be some decent interest there if their stand-alone HD VMD are also cheap enough and can handle things like .mkv high def files that are easily available to download nowadays
(kind of like Divx/Xvid on SD DVD players is a handy thing when your stand-alone player can handle them).

On the otherhand there's a strong possibility that they may not stay around long enough to gain any kind of 'traction'.
But right now, who knows?

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So what do you call events like the Disney DVD Forum vote, then?

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it was something like three years ago that disney joined DVD Forum and disney's junction with the group has had no real positive effect on HD-DVD or negative effect on Blu-ray, i'd say the latest vote (51gig) is mediocre at best. disney still is Blu-ray exclusive, is it not? for some reason i don't see disney ramping up the production lines anytime soon. could it be insurance for the future? sure thats a possibility.
here is something from september

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While Disney has maintained a relatively low profile in the war of words between studios backing one or the other of the high-def disc formats, CEO Robert Iger spoke out in support of Blu-ray this week during the company's quarterly analyst call.

As the first studio head to successfully embrace the web (and iTunes in particular) as an alternative distribution vehicle for movie and TV-related content, Iger is credited by many in the industry as being the most aggressive among his peers when it comes to digital initiatives, so his comments (while obviously not unbiased) carry some added weight.

Asked whether he would consider releasing his company's product on HD DVD instead of exclusively on Blu-ray, Iger responded this way:

"We made our bed with Blu-ray because we believed more in that format for a variety of reasons; some technical in nature, some due to the fact that it simply had broader support from a variety of industries, notably the motion picture studios but also what I’ll call the consumer electronics and the tech industry.

What we are seeing lately is that sales of Blu-ray discs are outpacing HD discs by at least two to one. As more quality Blu-ray product comes on the market, which is going to happen, notably with Pirates on May 22, we actually believe that the difference or the advantage of Blu-ray is only going to widen.

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and here is something a little more recent 11/19/07

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Walt Disney Home Entertainment president Bob Chapek told TWICE during a recent Blu-ray Fest promotional event here that the Blu-ray camp's inevitable victory was only delayed slightly.

He said the surprise announcements of Paramount and DreamWorks this summer to exclusively back HD DVD temporarily confused the market, but Blu-ray's momentum continues unabated, and it should be revealed as the obvious victor during the coming year.

The following is a brief Q&A interview with Chapek during the studio's sendoff for the DVD and Blu-ray Disc releases of "Ratatouille":

TWICE: What's your assessment of the progress of the Blu-ray Disc rollout so far?

Chapek: I think it's going according to plan. Some people were surprised, and some weren't about the announcements that took place with competitive studios in the HD DVD camp a few months ago. But, to me, that was the last act of a desperate format trying to pull itself out of a nose dive. It was too little, too late. Consumers are voting with their dollars in anywhere from a 2:1 to 3:1 ratios for Blu-ray domestically, and even higher than that internationally. We have 90 percent market shares in Australia and Japan and anywhere from 70 to 80 percent market shares in Europe.

In my mind, the artificial extension of the format war, through whatever incentives were given, was counter to the consumer. The consumers made their minds up what format they preferred by some pretty large margins, and [the Paramount and DreamWorks decisions to back HD DVD exclusively] just served to extend what's an unnecessary format war, and confused the consumers and put at risk those who may now buy a format that will become obsolete very shortly.

Aside from that little momentary distraction, consumers continue to buy Blu-ray Discs as more players come on the market and discs become more prevalent and start to gain dominance at retail. When Blu-ray first came out it was getting 50/50 shelf space with HD DVD, and now the shelf-space has clearly turned in the favor of Blu-ray, and that means the sales will only continue to slide towards Blu. That will make the already inevitable outcome seem even more inevitable.

TWICE: You sound pretty confident. Any guess for when that might be?

Chapek: I would have said it would be over by the end of the calendar year, but that was before the surprise announcements [from Paramount and DreamWorks]. My guess is that within the next year it will be clear in everybody's mind that Blu-ray is the ultimate successor to DVD.

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so why did they vote, only they know the answer as there is little info available that would tell the story.

Quote:

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Or the fact that 51gb is now a reality?

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as i addressed much of that above, isn't there something in the works for 100gig Blu-ray disc anyway? (Hitachi) so hd-dvd gets one gig up on blu-ray and now the possibility of getting 49 more gigs than hd-dvd comes to light. go figure. it actually seems more like the old, my thingy is bigger than your thingy. now it would be sweet if star wars released on a 100gig blu-ray disc.

Quote:

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The longer this goes on now the worse it is for Blu-ray, it is Blu-ray that is not getting the return on their huge investments
(not to mention CE companies that have spent loads on new products and seen them welded to the store shelves and go obsolete with little or no sales at all).

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really? thats odd, considering in general terms prices don't get slashed for products with high or marginal demand. one could also argue economies of scale for blu-ray cost reduction but i won't get into that, well for now atleast i wont.

it was a marketing gimic to get sales of players boosted which would hopefully inturn increase media sales, which hd-dvd is lacking far behind. unfortunately it hasn't done the later (yet, if ever) or atleast it had little impact on the BIGGEST SHOPPING DAY OF THE YEAR. im not too sure how much lower prices can drop for HD-DVD before that becomes unprofitable. it was a type of last ditch effort (so to speak) with the upcoming holiday to rope everyday consumers in who probably had no intention on owning a player. you introduce them into the market and hopefully you can retain their business.

seriously, how would it look to those in the industry who pay attention to numbers (as in the example above apparently Disney does) if Blu-ray yet again dominated the holiday HD movie sales by a greater ratio than that, that we are already seeing? not too good if you ask me and obviously Disney too.

so how might one combat this? well drop the price and hope people buy up the content. But as some pointed out various reasons above and as i have repeatedly stated, its hard to buy content when you have no idea your getting a player for xmas,the movies are pricey, or the content you want is unavailable. don't expect any magic numbers in terms of sales any time soon. all of those factors mentioned above don't really do anything positive for HD-DVD, and yes thats with all the players sold or even your redundant notion of cheap chinese players. content sells players, players don't sell content. well they can't sell content that isn't there. good to hear though that cheap players are on the way. wonder how these "cheap" chinese players are going to impact other producers of hd-dvd players? will we begin to see inferior goods, lower production of current firms(drop price means lower production helps minimize costs, or loss), exiting of market all together by current firms?

Blu-ray on the other hand with time will become more affordable. it already has the upper hand with media sales, capable players, and studio support. we saw a HUGE drop in Prices of standalone players within a year or so of this format battle by both sides. Why wouldn't you think that if the time ever came that Blu-ray wouldn't do similar marketing and business tactics to stay competitive? HD-DVD and the retailers already played their cards (so to speak, i mean prices really can't drop much lower and stay that way for too long, can they?) while Blu-ray, being overpriced as it might be for both consumers and producers is still enjoying being on top and in my mind still has a lot more leverage. i'd still argue the costs of electronics decreases with time so with the lead blu-ray already has i'd expect that lead to increase as prices in the future become more competitive and thus, more affordable. as stated before.

Quote:

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Or the fact that Paramount said as clear as day that Blu-ray imposes costs that negate much of the short-term sales number lead?

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short-term, but what about long term?

here is some more interesting information:

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The most vocal advocate of Blu-ray was Disney, according to a report from the Associated Press. Iger was quoted as saying the format's success was a "foregone conclusion". Above that, he criticized other studios for not following in its same footsteps. "It's disappointing that the industry hasn't managed to be cohesive," he said.

Viacom's CEO Philippe Dauman struck back, saying that HD DVD players are more affordable and thus it is a more appealing format. Viacom owns Paramount, which recently stopped supporting both formats to move exclusively to HD DVD.

Dauman also commented on this move, saying it was a more economically viable solution to focus on one format. However, Paramount's former head of high definition home video was a very spirited spokesperson for the advantages of supporting both.

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interesting tidbit here. i guess there just might have been more to that deal than just internal costs. huh?

you believe whomever you like or whatever, but clearly saying that just costs was the basis for making a change is either just naive or pure ignorance. i mean should we only believe what is said by the paramount exec and disregard what the former head of hi-def says? if so then i guess its fair to say we should always believe all things sony, disney, fox, microsoft, paramount etc., right? too each their own i suppose but you definitely pick and choose your truths. i do too so don't feel bad ;)

Quote:

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Or the fact that (despite the blu-fans insisting it would never happen this year) HD DVD broke the $200 and then the $100 price barrier?

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that was actually already predicted to happen back in september of 2007. most probably had no idea.

Quote:

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The scale seems to be weighing more favorably for Blu-ray, but HD DVD manufacturers have pledged very low-cost players for the holiday season, with some likely to retail for less than $200.

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link

Quote:

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Or Lionsgate working with Microsoft with the XBox 360 HD downloads?

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this is something that is really meant to support the xbox 360 ELITE's features (largerHDD, HDMI). this service somewhat eliminates those who bought the core or even those with the premium package as 20gigs is certainly not a lot of space for storing content. i don't see this as having any impact on the format struggle itself nor do i see any bit of supporting evidence or data that would tell me otherwise. i do believe one would still have to pay for this feature (downloads) so knowing how the general populous feels about DRM, downloading HD content and being unable to burn said content probably isn't going to fit into a lot of people's bills. is the HD content for movies going to be "rentals" or will owners be able to "buy" content?

Quote:

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I have said that attaching vast weight to them alone and expecting people in the industry to be making long-term strategic decisions on the basis of them is short-sighted and wrong.

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CEO Robert Iger (Disney) apparently has access and pays attention to the media sales' numbers. from the quote at the beginning of this reply he goes on to say that "sales of Blu-ray discs are outpacing HD discs by at least two to one. As more quality Blu-ray product comes on the market, which is going to happen, notably with Pirates on May 22, we actually believe that the difference or the advantage of Blu-ray is only going to widen" hmmm, guess thats why he's ceo and your where you are ;)

although this article and discussion is primarily centered around the US and its HD format battle, lets not forget that Blu-ray does also dominate the other regions as well. especially japan where reports are coming out that blu-ray actually holds some 96% of the HD recorder market

P.S. i post on here not to make friends but to share my views, challenge others, and all is done within the rules outlined. so if i step on toes or we don't get along, well its no sweat off my back. i think your quite knowledgeable on the topic but you haven't convinced me one bit. im always up for a challenge or debate :)

LOL!!! I just find this funny because one minute they say blu-ray is winning the next its HD DVD. Nothing changes.