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Home video forecast remains partly cloudy for the next year

16 December 2007 15:12 by Rich "vurbal" Fiscus | 5 comments

Depending on who you ask in Hollywood the future of home video is either bright and clear or murky and uncertain. As 2007 comes to a close studio executives and industry analysts don't even seem to agree on the outlook for the remainder of the year. Questions have haunted the entertainment industry for much of the year, including lower DVD revenues, striking writers, and the format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD, with no obvious answers on the horizon heading into 2008.

To say this year has been dissapointing for the major studios would be an understatement. Consumer spending on DVDs is down from last year, and so far hi-def formats like HD DVD and Blu-ray haven't gererated enough business to close the gap. In part this is blamed on a larger than usual number of sequels among top DVD releases, but studio executives know they can no longer take market growth for granted. Add in the growing potential for drastically lower TV box set revenue from missed episodes do the Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike, and a still-contentious battle for dominance between the two next-gen DVD formats and you can understand why there's concern.

Hollywood's problems haven't gone unnoticed on Wall Street, where stock ratings have been dropping due to projections of a continued 3% - 4% annual decline in home video revenue despite record box office returns this year. In his Dec. 10 report, titled 'The Tipping Point,' Bear Stearns analyst Spencer Wang wrote �With little traction on HD so far, pricing pressure, and less penetration opportunity left, we believe that the decline in the DVD market will accelerate in 2008 and beyond.�

Meanwhile the studios are making plans for a two pronged strategy to appeal to DVD buyers while continuing to push whichever hi-def format they're backing. DVDs are being with new features like copies in other digital formats for viewing on a computer or mobile media player.

There are claims from some Blu-ray and HD DVD backers that one format will emerge the clear winner after next January's Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the trade show where the entertainment and consumer electronics industries meet and talk strategy for the upcoming year. Of course the clear winner depends on who you talk to, which is why most analysts are still forecasting a stalemate for at least another year.

Source: Variety

Permalink to this article

Is it too late to avoid long term affects from WGA strike? (19 January 2008)

Record year at box office doesn't translate to more viewers (28 December 2007)

New releases on HD DVD gaining momentum (21 December 2007)

Analysts predict format war to end next year (18 December 2007)

Sony Blu-ray player hits new low price (17 December 2007)

Best Buy offering BOGO on HD DVD and Blu-ray titles (16 December 2007)

Warner set to drop HD DVD? (9 December 2007)

Despite Blu-ray's sales lead analysts predict a stalemate (4 December 2007)

Black Friday DVD sales focused on older titles (1 December 2007)

Studios repackaging TV DVDs in complete series sets (23 November 2007)

Consumers continue HDTV adoption even if they don't know what hi-def means (16 November 2007)

HD DVD still in the race say analysts (24 October 2007)

Executives blame Halo 3 for poor Box Office results (18 October 2007)

Hollywood unhappy with lower-priced DVDs (3 October 2007)

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NexGen76 (Member) 16 December 2007 16:39
Right now its crazy to even think either HD format going to over take the DVD market.Before that happens HD market got to have one format before either format can even think of taking over the DVD market which is going take a while. [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 16 December 2007 20:03
*Originally posted by NexGen76:* Right now its crazy to even think either HD format going to over take the DVD market.Before that happens HD market got to have one format before either format can even think of taking over the DVD market which is going take a while. True they(hollywood) should be focusing on TVs and HDef content across the nation also refine digital services the format war is good for 2+ years still. [ + quote]
tester22 (Inactive) 18 December 2007 12:20
I'll pass my thought on here...............This is Harry's law! This is absolutely how it's going to be. THERE WILL BE NO VICTOR BETWEEN BLU-RAY AND HD-DVD PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!! This WILL NOT be a repeat of the betamax, VHS crap. Boys and girls, we are stuck with two (2) formats. Count'em up; 1,2 There has been too much invested in each and too many videos already produced on each for there to wind up only being one (1). Anyone who believes that Sony will honestly stop producing on their own Blu-ray format that THEY INVENTED and start putting Sony-produced flicks out on HD-DVD is a fool. I used to believe that one would become prevalent but since have change my realistic thoughts on that. Here's the answer to all the questions.............DUAL FORMAT PLAYERS WILL BE THE STANDARD. It's already started and will continue and drastically reduce in price somewhere down the line. If you don't like the idea of waiting then the option of buying two (2) players is the next best solution. BD for 300.00 bucks and HD-DVD for 300.00 (unless you find another Walmart deal for 100.00) DONE! [ + quote]
borhan9 (AfterDawn Addict) 24 December 2007 8:25
The fact is that video format is on the way out and is slowly being fazed out and we will only see that blank video tape will be available. [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 24 December 2007 19:11
*Originally posted by tester22:* I'll pass my thought on here...............This is Harry's law! This is absolutely how it's going to be. THERE WILL BE NO VICTOR BETWEEN BLU-RAY AND HD-DVD PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!! This WILL NOT be a repeat of the betamax, VHS crap. Boys and girls, we are stuck with two (2) formats. Count'em up; 1,2 There has been too much invested in each and too many videos already produced on each for there to wind up only being one (1). Anyone who believes that Sony will honestly stop producing on their own Blu-ray format that THEY INVENTED and start putting Sony-produced flicks out on HD-DVD is a fool. I used to believe that one would become prevalent but since have change my realistic thoughts on that. Here's the answer to all the questions.............DUAL FORMAT PLAYERS WILL BE THE STANDARD. It's already started and will continue and drastically reduce in price somewhere down the line. If you don't like the idea of waiting then the option of buying two (2) players is the next best solution. BD for 300.00 bucks and HD-DVD for 300.00 (unless you find another Walmart deal for 100.00) DONE! So it defaults to 1 being consumer/business storage and one being the disc format for the video media industry or are you saying it would be like R/- and they virtually share the playing flied? Also look back at beta v vhs not much has changed, only the size of the market and the monetary flow there of, its easy to see one simply selling off most of its debt by liquidating its failed format. really there are 6 possible ends to the format war 1-2:BR or HDVD "wins" and the other goes quietly away(like mini disc and UDM format movies, still made yes but you don't hear about them much anymore). 3-6. HDVD or BR sells out to the other ending the format quickly or relegating it to a slow end like one of the options above. 7-8."Sharing of the market" where one relegates itself to storage the other the the media industry. 9.they both partner for a full assault on the consumers of the world playing hot potato with licenses to keep a format afloat in whatever failing region its in, doing this they both could end DVD early if they both work together to replace DVD. [ + quote]