My vote was for flash media in the future.

But I don't think studios are ready to release movies on usb sticks quite yet....

The premise of this seems pretty asinine if you ask me. Aside the fact that flash cards with even 50GB of space don't exist yet, let alone 128, even if they did and they were cheap, I'm sure movie studios would never go this rought simply because the likelyhood their movies would be pirated goes up substantially. Moreover, unless they innovate a new USB standard in the near future, It wouldn't even be practical from a time standpoint. Can you imagine waiting 20 to 30 minutes or more waiting on a 20GB movie download to a USB2.0 drive, and don't even get me started on multiple movies.

mmm thats why i said you must own a special video player, some like the blurayplayer, its like an xbox, but this one is specially for video, it has a hard drive, so you can store and transmit via WIFI to any computer registered to you, or any tv registered to you even better, you just come home, download it to your new kick ass Flshplay the newest technology in the market, it streams all of your media to all the tvsregistered to you (wink wink, DRM will never die!, and it'll never be crack/safe, ha Irony), and you have the future. Does it sound crazy to you, as WIFI has hit such an extensive market, you have WIFI addapters for your xbox360, or better else, this service is available to your 360 its called xboxlive, mmmmmmm, i just ponder if anyone will ever plan something like this???, o and its not like sony is planning something like this on teirh sonystore for ps3 (wink, wink)

This is pure speculation from a scientist at the THX Labs.

Now let a professional market analyst chime in:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080326/20080326005743.html?.v=1
http://www.strategyanalytics.net/default...tViewer&a0=3862

Blu-ray Disc Devices: Global Market Forecast
Strategy Analytics: As Format War Ends, 29 Million Blu-ray Homes Expected This Year

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The Blu-ray Disc victory in its recent format war with HD-DVD will propel this technology into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008, according to the latest research published by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. According to, “Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership,” Sony’s PS3 games console will continue to drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which stand-alone Blu-ray players will become the dominant segment. By 2012 more than 132 million homes worldwide will own at least one Blu-ray device.

“HD-DVD’s withdrawal leaves the way open for Blu-ray to become a major revenue earner for technology vendors and content owners alike,” says David Mercer, Principal Analyst. “The 265 million homes that will own an HDTV by 2012, and Hollywood’s need for a new growth engine, represent huge incentives for the industry to coordinate marketing activities and demonstrate unified support for the successor to DVD.”

This Strategy Analytics report predicts that global sales of Blu-ray devices will reach 18.8 million units in 2008, including 4 million stand-alone players, 13 million consoles and nearly 2 million PCs. By 2012, annual sales of all BD devices will reach 57.4 million units. The largest market will be in Europe, with 26.4 million, followed by the US (22.6 million) and Japan (8.4 million).

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People keep trying to equate digital music distribution to movies. An entire album worth of music adds up to only about 70MB. While HD movies will be in excess of 12-15GB each. As someone pointed out earlier, 50GB flash drives don't even exist yet and it will be a LONG time before 128GB ones come along.

Face it, there will always be a market for physical media. 700MB CDs have been on the market for over 20yrs now and even with all of the iTunes store, illegal downloading, Amazon marketplace, etc. there is still a market for physical CDs. Some people just prefer to have the disc, artwork, and booklet. I personally still buy CDs for this reason (plus the crappy quality of MP3s doesn't impress me). There is no sense of ownership for a media file like a physical disc. SDDVD and Blu-Ray will be around for a long time.

Another thing is the piracy issue. Putting movies on a USB drive is going to make it much harder for the movie industry to protect their movies from being easily pirated. They'll be reluctant to adopt this method of movie distribution. The time when all media will be distributed digitally is a very long way off into the future. I'm thinking more of 20-25yrs before something like this takes over.

Fanboys be happy with your disks because I will be happy when hard drives and cd/dvd/high def dvd'sare put to rest. I am presently waiting for my replacement dvdburner to come in and Just last year had to replace the burner on my laptop. Also 3 hard drives went down last year for me...... All my electronics with no moving parts seem to be working fine but I just keep replacing the ones that spin. What was it....... no one would want a tiny USB strip when they could have a big dvd/cd for the picture or what ever how about the LP to the CD/DVD was damn nice to see it get 20 percent the size kind of like the DVD to USB strip size change HMMMMMMMMMM.

Originally posted by trainmstr:

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hooray ... hell with discs. blueray and hddvd sux

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Lame attempt at a flame put out...enjoy a vacation on me.

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Will it be a flash back to the days of blowing on the Atari cartrage to get it to work or bending the prongs out on the card receiver to get it to make connection. I dont care how I get my HD as long as it is the best quality. For now and the future, Blu is fine with me. I see no benifit of a flash memory card at the moment. Some day we might have that Bat Man Jim Carry thing that you put to your head and streams the info to your brain.

Originally posted by club42:

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If flash drives , memory stick type stuff etc is such a more attractive option than the optical disc format - why has absolutely nothing replaced the optical compact audio disc in over 20 years of advances in technology ?

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They call it an ipod.

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You're comparing the sound quality of an ipod carrying crummy, compressed tracks, with that of compact disc audio (???)

Even at 44.1 Khz sampling and 16-bit resolution, standard red-book audio makes ipod fall flat on it's .98c ear-bud headphones.

Originally posted by LOCOENG:

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Originally posted by trainmstr:

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hooray ... hell with discs. blueray and hddvd sux

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Lame attempt at a flame put out...enjoy a vacation on me.

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<heh-heh> .... :-P

Yeah, everyone needs a good vacation now and then.

(Did you send him a first-class plane ticket, or was he required to sit in the baggage compartment?) :)

Quote:

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You're comparing the sound quality of an ipod carrying crummy, compressed tracks, with that of compact disc audio (???)

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No I agree that the audio is inferior I'm just mentioning how the general public can accept a switch to flash media if done right.

@ ZeusAV, most CDs are 350mb or more in size. 70mb is MP3 compressed 128 - 192 bitrate.


A single-layer Blu-Ray disc has 27GB or over 2 hours of high def video.
a double-layer Blu-Ray disc has 54GB or almost 5 hours of high def video.

Where does this 128GB talk come from?

all someone would need for normal 2 hour movies plus some features is a 32GB flash card

Originally posted by chubbyInc:

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A single-layer Blu-Ray disc has 27GB or over 2 hours of high def video.
a double-layer Blu-Ray disc has 54GB or almost 5 hours of high def video.

Where does this 128GB talk come from?

all someone would need for normal 2 hour movies plus some features is a 32GB flash card

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The 128 GB is so that you could purchase more than one movie at a time. When new releases come out, alot of times there are 2 or 3 movies the consumer would buy at once. Less limitations.

At last an opinion from somebody with a vested interest in the future and not the now.. well done the man from the tech side of the film/media industry (never heard his name before today)

It will be the "no moving parts" media that will have the big battle with dvd, not just another spinning disk format. I can remember that dvd-audio was supposed to spell the demise of cd-audio.. I can rememmber exactly the same kind of ranting and flaming all over forums 10 years ago about it, how dvd-audio was the new standard and would kill off cd's within 2 years blah blah blah... it didn't tho did it?

Like I have been saying from day 1 of this argument.. both hd disk formats were doomed from the start.. 128GB flash drives will be here within 2 years.. at a price we can all afford...
dammit.. I can remember when the largest pc hdd you could get was 350mb.. within 3 years 9 gig was standard.

As for the film industry.. who is retarded enough to think that it is going to be 25 years before anybody sees this kind of thing??? Got news for you.. it's already happened in Japan and Malaysia where you can go into a music shop and get a film or album on your flash drive for a price. Places that look to the future realise the future is now, and will adopt new technology and consumer patterns as they arrive..

Where were you 25 years ago?? I was sitting at a gui desktop computer in the basement of my fathers house, looking at minix and the future ;)

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I thought that I read somewhere (after the format war had ended) that Toshiba was sinking a bunch of money into Flash Drives. Did anyone else read this article? The article had stated where Toshiba's money was used last year as far as developing new products.

Seems like THX is now backtracking on the scientist's comments. Their PR manager has issued a clarification:

http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/

Blu-ray is not dead, says THX

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Here’s what THX PR Manager Graham McKenna had to say,

“THX recognizes the quality and benefits that the Blu-ray HD format brings to the home theater experience. We are dedicated to supporting Blu-ray with new THX technologies and other initiatives. At its very core, THX is about advancing the quality of the entertainment experience, whether that is on optical disc, downloads or other emerging media. I believe Mr. Fincham’s comments reflect that broader goal.”

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Quote:

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Quote:

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You're comparing the sound quality of an ipod carrying crummy, compressed tracks, with that of compact disc audio (???)

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No I agree that the audio is inferior I'm just mentioning how the general public can accept a switch to flash media if done right.

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(Gotcha).

And if the flash media were large enough, you wouldn't have to compress anything anyway.

Originally posted by juankerr:

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Seems like THX is now backtracking on the scientist's comments. Their PR manager has issued a clarification:

http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/

Blu-ray is not dead, says THX

Quote:

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Here’s what THX PR Manager Graham McKenna had to say,

“THX recognizes the quality and benefits that the Blu-ray HD format brings to the home theater experience. We are dedicated to supporting Blu-ray with new THX technologies and other initiatives. At its very core, THX is about advancing the quality of the entertainment experience, whether that is on optical disc, downloads or other emerging media. I believe Mr. Fincham’s comments reflect that broader goal.”

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That was a quick retraction there from THX.

I wonder if this backpedaling means they want to have their THX logo on BluRay hardware too.

Originally posted by juankerr:

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This is pure speculation from a scientist at the THX Labs.

Now let a professional market analyst chime in:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080326/20080326005743.html?.v=1
http://www.strategyanalytics.net/default...tViewer&a0=3862

Blu-ray Disc Devices: Global Market Forecast
Strategy Analytics: As Format War Ends, 29 Million Blu-ray Homes Expected This Year

Quote:

---

The Blu-ray Disc victory in its recent format war with HD-DVD will propel this technology into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008, according to the latest research published by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. According to, “Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership,” Sony’s PS3 games console will continue to drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which stand-alone Blu-ray players will become the dominant segment. By 2012 more than 132 million homes worldwide will own at least one Blu-ray device.

“HD-DVD’s withdrawal leaves the way open for Blu-ray to become a major revenue earner for technology vendors and content owners alike,” says David Mercer, Principal Analyst. “The 265 million homes that will own an HDTV by 2012, and Hollywood’s need for a new growth engine, represent huge incentives for the industry to coordinate marketing activities and demonstrate unified support for the successor to DVD.”

This Strategy Analytics report predicts that global sales of Blu-ray devices will reach 18.8 million units in 2008, including 4 million stand-alone players, 13 million consoles and nearly 2 million PCs. By 2012, annual sales of all BD devices will reach 57.4 million units. The largest market will be in Europe, with 26.4 million, followed by the US (22.6 million) and Japan (8.4 million).

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Of course Blu Ray is going to be in alot of homes by the end of 2008 because its inside the PS3 and everyone who buys a PS3 is buying a Blu Ray player. This says nothing of how successful Blu Ray is ultimately going to be. You see if this article was stating there would be 18 million stand alone players in people's homes by the end of 2008 then that would be an entirely different beast. This format war alone has shown us that a very large percentage of PS3 users dont even use the PS3 with Blu Ray movies and alot of the people that do use it only buy a movie here and there.

I am sorry but the situation with Blu Ray and the PS3 is a very different situation and you cannot judge how successful its going to be based off of just how many PS3's have been sold. The fact that the writer of this article seems utterly oblivious to this tells me that he is either a professional in disguise and knows next to nothing about what he is talkingabout or he is simply being paid by Sony to pump up Blu Ray' s future outlook.

Again just looking at the fact that there will be 10-20 million PS3's in people's homes in no way tells you how successful Blu Ray is going to be within those numbers and that is exactly what this article is trying to do. The fact that you were trying to use this so called Professionals opinion to overshadow the opinion of the THX guy just makes it that much more ridiculous. If anything the THX guys opinion seems even more intelligent compared to this guy trying to throw big numbers around. Ah I guess the less educated people will still eat it up especially those who support Blu Ray. Those of us who understand the market and know what is going on and what has been going on for the last 2 years, well its pretty easy seeing right through his big numbers.

Quote:

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If anything the THX guys opinion seems even more intelligent compared to this guy trying to throw big numbers around.

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Well THX has already issued a retraction of the scientist's statement and will probably have him bound and gagged the next time the press is around.

http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/

Suffice it to say that I'll take the word of a professional market analyst over that of a scientist in a lab coat when it comes to market trends and forecasts.

If I have questions about THX specs and certification for my A/V gear then I'll gladly listen to the scientist.

Originally posted by juankerr:

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Well THX has already issued a retraction of the scientist's statement and will probably have him bound and gagged the next time the press is around.

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LOL! No shit. The thing is THX needs to foster a working relationship with CE's and studios that make BluRay.

One BluRay release has already been THX certified - T2: Judgement Day. However, as some videophiles have pointed out, this usually means unwanted edge enhancement.

In addition there have been a few BluuRay games whose audio sections have been THX certified - Resistance: Fall of Man, Warhawk, and Blast Factor.

There was supposed to be Pioneer BluRay model that would be THX certified (the BDP-LX90) but I don't know what happened to it. Maybe eatsushi can enlighten us on this one.

Well!i think that not necessary be a USB flash card! but the holographic card is a good idea;carrying movies like credict card in the pocket or in the wallet is a good idea.No more spinning mechanism.I have a lot of cd's and DVD's with a lot of valuable information those cd's and dvd's are damaged.

If the chip manufacturers come up with a process of making short run masked rom - probably the highest density storage form - manufacturing cheaper it could be a good medium for distribution with practically zero scope for damage.

Originally posted by juankerr:

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Quote:

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If anything the THX guys opinion seems even more intelligent compared to this guy trying to throw big numbers around.

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Well THX has already issued a retraction of the scientist's statement and will probably have him bound and gagged the next time the press is around.

http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu...-dead-says-thx/

Suffice it to say that I'll take the word of a professional market analyst over that of a scientist in a lab coat when it comes to market trends and forecasts.

If I have questions about THX specs and certification for my A/V gear then I'll gladly listen to the scientist.

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Most of the time I would actually agree with you and would listen to a professional market analyst over some misc lab tech guy but in this particular case it is clear that this market analyst either has no clue what he is talking about or is simply being paid to say what he is saying. How someone can look at the overall situation with Blu Ray and forget to factor in the fact that roughly half of the people who buy a PS3 dont even use it with Blu ray movies is beyond me. Its probably the single most important statistic to look at when looking at the PS3's overall effect on the Blu Ray market.

So again either this guy is just a total moron who has no clue what has been going on the last 2 years and has no idea that the PS3 isnt a stand alone Blu Ray player or his wallet just got alot fatter for saying what he did. Given Sony's shady past it really could be either one of those things. One thing is for sure and that is any prediction that is come to without the factoring in of this data with the PS3 belongs in one place only and that is the trash bin.

Originally posted by voyager:

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Well!i think that not necessary be a USB flash card! but the holographic card is a good idea;carrying movies like credict card in the pocket or in the wallet is a good idea.No more spinning mechanism.I have a lot of cd's and DVD's with a lot of valuable information those cd's and dvd's are damaged.

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Yeah I agree and I dont know why people are limiting the possibility to just flash cards. When people think of flash cards they think of the kind of cards that we currently have on the market and lets face it they are nt an ideal size or shape. Something like a holographic card in the shape of a credit card would be a much better size and shape. Just imagine how many of those suckers you could stick in a case that is the same size as a 100 CD or 200 CD case. You could easily hold them in your wallet and the no more spinning parts would extend the overall life of players considerably as moving parts are always the first parts to break down.

Overall I think people are really being narrow minded by assuming that it has to be an optical disc. One thing is for sure an that is the days of a single format are gone and the future will be all about options. Do you want SD DVD, Blu Ray, On Demand, Portable files for cell phones, iPods and other portable devices, AppleTV's, Xbox360 Marketplace, PS3 marketplace, Slingboxes, TV over your computer Etc... There may very well always be an optical disc option but that doesnt for a minute mean that there will not be room for other technologies as well. Again the future is going to be all about options and I for one think both the flash card and holographic idea are both very possible in the near future.

I personally think that you will see a huge market open up for lesser quality portable movie files very similar to what we saw happen with Music and the iTunes situation. Instead of going with much higher quality audio like SACD's, we saw people moving to a quality even below that of CD's simply because of the portability and ease of downloading. I think to some extent we will see the same thing with movies. As portable movie devices get better and better people will want the ability to have thier movie collection with them at all times just like they can do with thier entire music collection with an iPod.
Who knows the flash and holographic technology may be what is used in this market.

I really think that a large percentage of the population, especially the younger generation, are simply far more interested in portability then they are in quality. Don't get me wrong it still has to be good quality, like the iTunes music quality, but once you reach that level of quality that they find acceptable I think portability becomes a much bigger issue with a lot of them then getting even higher quality files.

Spinning optical discs aren't done yet. How about 15 Terabytes on a DVD sized platter using blue-laser technology:

http://www.call-recall.com/news.html#anchor12

Portability is a valid concept but we're talking about the emerging home theater market where high-def displays and sources (not to mention surround sound) are the key elements.