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Analyst predicts continued sales slump for Blu-ray in 2008

14 May 2008 14:35 by Rich "vurbal" Fiscus | 59 comments

At last week's MEDIA-TECH Expo in Frankfurt, Germany, media analyst Richard Cooper of Screen Digest predicted that the struggling US economy will have a major impact on the growth of Blu-ray in 2008. During his presentation on the future of Blu-ray Cooper backed up his assertion with some interesting figures, largely from DVD sales, showing that US households have historically purchase more titles annually than those in Europe. Based in part on those figures he sees Blu-ray sales continuing to remain low during 2008.

As we reported last month, sales of Blu-ray players dropped significantly after the end of the so-called format war with HD DVD, and have yet to return to their January levels.

His presentation also included detailed analysis of the affect PS3 sales may have on the market. He pointed to a recent study showing use of the game console as a BD (Blu-ray Disc) player in the US increasing from the end of 2007 through the beginning of 2008 as good news for movie sales. Also of note, however, was the competition for consumer dollars between games and movies. Such competition could prove problematic for the Blu-ray industry as long as the game console dominates the player market.

Of course PS3 figures aren't quite as important in Europe where, as Cooper pointed out, the adoption rate for the console is much lower. He attributes this largely to its relatively high price. It will be interesting to see whether European prices change if the economy becomes a more significant factor in US sales over the course of this year - especially during the Christmas season.

It's also worth noting that if you were to combine major analysts' predictions over the last 2 years you'd find that both Blu-ray and HD DVD should have won and shut the other completely out of the market. Additionally the victory was predicted to occur at any of several points between 2006 and 2010. Such speculation is always based on educated guessing, especially where new technology is concerned.

You can find more information on the presentation at the the MEDIA-TECH Expo website.

Permalink to this article | Topics: Blu-ray Consoles

EMA report shows games, not Blu-ray with most impressive gain in '07 (24 June 2008)

German court throws out P2P lawsuit (15 June 2008)

BDA grants licenses to Chinese manufacturers (30 May 2008)

360 still outselling PS3 in the UK despite GTA IV (29 May 2008)

Amazon launches huge summer Blu-ray sale (28 May 2008)

Specialty stores expect Blu-ray to surpass DVD in August (28 May 2008)

Panasonic to deliver cheaper, slimmer BD-Live enabled Blu-ray players (22 May 2008)

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plextor05 (Newbie) 18 May 2008 10:51
I could be wrong, but most folks work for a living without intending to rip off their clients or their community. They have a budget that doesn't include a 60-inch tv, much less a giant home theatre. Blue-Ray is intended to be viewed on a large format high-definition output screen. If you don't have one, you don't need blue-ray. Some of us poor folks are getting by just fine with a 32 or 40 inch rig without any problems, and many are having a great time with their DVD player and VHS for those legacy movies and home videos. We don't really have time to burn thinking about what we can buy next, and SONY has an ugly reputation of victimizing it's customers. I'll stick to RCA, Hitachi, Quasar, or anything else. By the way, I didn't check the box that says, "Check this box, if you want to get email notifications when new messages are added to this thread." But I keep getting bugged about this lame thread. [ + quote]
JRude (Junior Member) 18 May 2008 14:36
Ryu77 ...I have a 60 inch rear projection OLD TV..works fine..my SON has the plasma 6 footer and refuses to watch anything that pixilates...Statistics are for proving a point...I go by my eyes and the seat of my pants. Hope you are happy with your gear, I am mine! The LAST person I listen to is a salesman...Have a reasonable day...anything else is a gift! [ + quote]
ripxrush (Newbie) 25 May 2008 18:27
*Originally posted by H0bbes:* They should fire that guy, split up his 6 figure salary and pay a few longtime afterdawn members to do his job from home ;-) uh maybe 7 figure, 6 figure low end is only 100,000 over 2 people thats only 50,000 each! you could barely rent a 1 room apt here in cali with that! RusH [ + quote]
rvinkebob (Member) 25 May 2008 18:43
Amazing, nobrainer hasn't given a single comment on this. I think he's learning. [ + quote]
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 25 May 2008 18:47
People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary. If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
varnull (AfterDawn Addict) 25 May 2008 19:00
And FYI.. my 22" FERGUSON crt tv is still making better pictures in it's 29th year than I see on most LCD HD things on display... Yes.. I had to build the a/v inputs myself. I think most of these HD pricks have never seen a properly set up crt display from the days when they were the dogs. the Mullard PIL tubes were the best. True white, true black and accurate scale tracking from all 3 guns.. something I have yet to see from either a plasma or lcd. Free open source software = made by end users who want an application to work.... #1 image again.. check it out ;) [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 25 May 2008 19:03
Mr-Movies (Member) 30 May 2008 21:58
*Originally posted by iluvendo:* People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary. HD is still selling even though we are in a recession and this maybe in part due to the amount of TV we all watch. If you aren�t at work you�re most likely watching TV. And again when people see how sharp HD is they are willing to scrap by and make that big buck purchase. I know people who keep gambling every week, complain about being broke always, but still go back to the casinos so common sense does�n always prevail unfortunately. *Originally posted by Varnull:* And FYI.. my 22" FERGUSON crt tv is still making better pictures in it's 29th year than I see on most LCD HD things on display... Yes.. I had to build the a/v inputs myself. I think most of these HD pricks have never seen a properly set up crt display from the days when they were the dogs. the Mullard PIL tubes were the best. True white, true black and accurate scale tracking from all 3 guns.. something I have yet to see from either a plasma or lcd. First off I think you and JRude need glasses, you might want to go see an Optometrist sometime soon. HD pricks? How about those overly Cheap pricks? There is NO way your 22� CRT is going to compete with a HD LCD viewed in full HD unless it is a really crappy LCD set. I have a 36� HD CRT that blows all of my LCD/Plasma TV�s away and this is only due to the fact that most older FP�s don�t handle dark scenes well, especially LCD�s. Plasma�s are a little better with dark scenes but Burn-in is a problem as well as life expectancy. When viewing normal content that was produced in HD and viewed on an HD LCD there is no comparison to your extremely old and out dated Ferguson TV, is that an old console set with the turntable/stereo system in it? Too funny� I do have a friend with a 32� SD CRT that is very nice and in some circumstances looks better then the HD FP sets but it still doesn�t compare to a good HD signal on those FP�s, not even close. *Originally posted by plextor05:* I could be wrong, but most folks work for a living without intending to rip off their clients or their community. They have a budget that doesn't include a 60-inch tv, much less a giant home theatre. Most people are buying 40-42� sets and again it is most likely due to the amount of TV viewing they due and the price that size gives them. If you knew how expensive it was to build a large FP you couldn�t justify you rip off comment but you know ignorance is bliss or is it? *Originally posted by plextor05:* Blue-Ray is intended to be viewed on a large format high-definition output screen. If you don't have one, you don't need blue-ray. Again wrong, I�ve hooked up a cheap little 7� LCD HD portable to BD and it looks great, better is just better no matter the size. *Originally posted by plextor05:* Some of us poor folks are getting by just fine with a 32 or 40 inch rig without any problems, and many are having a great time with their DVD player and VHS for those legacy movies and home videos. If you are so dmn poor how is it you could afford a 40� CRT they certainly are not cheap! Also your username is Plextor so if you have one of those you have spent more there too. Just one more contradiction I see. VHS do they still make those? You don�t need VHS to get old movies I�m a classic movie freak and almost anything I want I can get on DVD very cheap. There are a couple of movies / shows you still can�t get, but not many. I haven�t watched a VHS for probably a decade or better they just look horrible these days and they degrade with time or just get eaten in your player what a crappy format when you think about it. Originally posted by plextor05:* We don't really have time to burn thinking about what we can buy next, and SONY has an ugly reputation of victimizing it's customers. I'll stick to RCA, Hitachi, Quasar, or anything else. I really don�t like Sony either and there is very little I will buy from them but their TV�s are excellent, yes they cost a little more but so does Hitachi and Pioneer. The way I look at it is Sony TV�s are better by enough to make the high price tag worth it. They make a 46� LCD FP for $2,500 USD that has the 20K contrast and 120 refresh these TV�s are well worth the price and will blow that old Ferguson out of the water hands down. *Originally posted by plextor05:* By the way, I didn't check the box that says, "Check this box, if you want to get email notifications when new messages are added to this thread." But I keep getting bugged about this lame thread. Wakeup it is automatically checked you need to uncheck it. The lights are on but nobodies home apparently. *In Summation* I�m a bang for the buck person, not a cheap prick or a foolish need to spend 10x the price guy just to have the most current stuff. Everyone has their own choice as to what is best for them but you can�t argue that old TV is better than the new digital standards, it just doesn�t hold up. So if 8 track tapes or the old windup RCA phono players are your thing good for you but you can�t knock people who like state of the art technology, unless you are jealous however and then you really have no point. Ryu77 As always you�ve done a really good job on this thread keep up the good work. You do know that some of these people will never get it though and I sure don�t need to point them out or wait a minute maybe I have. :) [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 30 May 2008 22:10
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 30 May 2008 22:09
*Quote:* Originally posted by iluvendo: People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary. HD is still selling even though we are in a recession and this maybe in part due to the amount of TV we all watch. If you aren�t at work you�re most likely watching TV. And again when people see how sharp HD is they are willing to scrap by and make that big buck purchase. *Quote:* *I know people who keep gambling every week, complain about being broke always, but still go back to the casinos so common sense does�n always prevail unfortunately.* Mr Movies, addiction is not the same thing. As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) . What do you think the public would choose and why ? If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
Mr-Movies (Member) 30 May 2008 22:16
*Originally posted by Iluvendo:* As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) . What do you think the public would choose and why ? Now you are really getting ridiculous this isn�t a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there aren�t you! [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 30 May 2008 22:17
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 30 May 2008 22:24
*Originally posted by Mr-Movies:* *Originally posted by Iluvendo:* As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) . What do you think the public would choose and why ? Now you are really getting ridiculous this isn�t a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there aren�t you! But you made the direct point of gambling over all else as your point of contention. So I felt a cooresponding counterpoint was necessary. If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
Mr-Movies (Member) 30 May 2008 22:30
*Quote:* *Originally posted by Mr-Movies:* *Originally posted by Iluvendo:* As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) . What do you think the public would choose and why ? Now you are really getting ridiculous this isn�t a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there aren�t you! But you made the direct point of gambling over all else as your point of contention. So I felt a cooresponding counterpoint was necessary. If you properly read it, it was a point that people do crazy things and aren't always predictable or do they make good choices when it comes to money or many other things in life. [ + quote]
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 30 May 2008 22:42
Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start. Would you say we are in agreement ? If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
Mr-Movies (Member) 30 May 2008 22:48
*Originally posted by iluvendo:* Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start. Would you say we are in agreement ? I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite. What I will agree with is we all should be sensible and not try to live beyond our means. Also when products like BD�s raise their prices because now they have a monopoly people should stop buying their product in order to force them from gouging us. [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 30 May 2008 23:03
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 30 May 2008 22:57
*Originally posted by Mr-Movies:* *Originally posted by iluvendo:* Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start. Would you say we are in agreement ? I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite. I see H2 Hummers on the streets, but as regular gas is over $4/gal, I see less and less each day. I drive a Toyota Camry 4 cyl and get 33 mpg. You are correct dummies abound. The joke is "God must love stupid people, otherwise he would'nt made so many of them" If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 30 May 2008 23:05
*Originally posted by Mr-Movies:* *Originally posted by iluvendo:* Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start. Would you say we are in agreement ? I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite. *Quote:* What I will agree with is we all should be sensible and not try to live beyond our means. Also when products like BD�s raise their prices because now they have a monopoly people should stop buying their product in order to force them from gouging us . You sound like a Libertarian, my kinda guy! If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
Mr-Movies (Member) 30 May 2008 23:10
That Toyota is a great car I have a friend that is going to get one as they are getting rid of their Mercedes, you can't go wrong with the Camry. And yes I am a Libertarian you have a good day iluvendo. :) [ + quote]
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 30 May 2008 23:14
*Originally posted by Mr-Movies:* That Toyota is a great car I have a friend that is going to get one as they are getting rid of their Mercedes, you can't go wrong with the Camry. And yes I am a Libertarian you have a good day iluvendo. :) You have a good day/night too Mr-Movies !! If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
JRude (Junior Member) 30 May 2008 23:48
All is peaceful in ''The Wild Kingdom''.........for the moment. If ya remember that, you probably don't have an HD TV & Blu Ray....;- ) [ + quote]
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 31 May 2008 0:07
*Originally posted by JRude:* *Quote:* *All is peaceful in ''The Wild Kingdom''.........for the moment.* *But tomorrow is another day !!!* If ya remember that, you probably don't have an HD TV & Blu Ray....;- ) If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote]
JRude (Junior Member) 31 May 2008 1:21
''Fiddle de dee!'' lol! [ + quote]
Ryu77 (Senior Member) 31 May 2008 5:33
And that ends another interesting episode at AfterDawn... Please stay tuned for more regular entertainment scheduled at the next Blu-ray news post... LOL! *Originally posted by Mr-Movies:* Ryu77 As always you�ve done a really good job on this thread keep up the good work. You do know that some of these people will never get it though and I sure don�t need to point them out or wait a minute maybe I have. :) Thank you. The fact that some never get it, is why at times I think it's better to take the high road and just leave it as it is. ;-) "Dream... Believe... Achieve" PS3 compatible video creation thread... mkv2vob, tsMuxeR etc.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/621809 The complete HD (Blu-ray/HD-DVD) back-up thread.: http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/639346 [ + quote]
iluvendo (AfterDawn Addict) 31 May 2008 13:25
Last time on "As the Disc turns", it turned out that BD has won the contest over rival HD (for Ms.Mo'ney's attention) , but as a sore looser, and not willing to concede defeat over the prized French lovely Ms. Mo'ney, HD digs deep into his pocket and pulls out Super Def SD (As HD knows Ms. Mo'ney is basically old school). HD wants Ms. Mo'ney and won't let BD have her. But to BD's credit, he adds oriental flavor, so BD is going to woo Ms. Mo'ney with Chinese cuisine. The plot thickens. Stay tuned folks, for the next episode of "As the Disc Turns" If it wasnt for bad luck, Id have no luck! "The flimsier the product,the higher the price" Ferengi 82nd rule of aquisition [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 31 May 2008 13:54
juankerr (Member) 2 June 2008 16:59
Where's the sales slump? Blu-ray sales from January through May 2008 have already surpassed sales for all of 2007 *Quote:* The world just keeps getting more Blu as the end of the format war has led to consumers jumping into high-def discs with both feet. More than 11 million hi-def Blu-ray movies have been sold so far, according to data compiled by the Redhill Group for Home Media Magazine, and that's even before the potentially biggest Blu-ray title to date hits the market on September 2: "Transformers." Projections based on preliminary data show that Blu-ray sales through May have already surpassed sales for all of 2007. Blu-ray software sales in the first four months of this year more than quadrupled from the same period last year, climbing to 11 million since inception. In an indication that the surrender of HD DVD had the overall effect everyone had hoped for in sparking the average consumer to feel comfortable jumping into the high-def market, this year's Blu-ray software sales through April are more than triple the number of sales of Blu-ray and HD DVD combined during the same period last year. To further illustrate the point, consumers are increasingly choosing Blu-ray over DVD when new releases are available in both formats. For example, a year ago each new top 10 release mostly generated only 1% - 2% of sales from Blu-ray, with a couple titles collecting as much as 5% on Blu-ray. This year in the first quarter, the top three Blu-ray titles, "I Am Legend," "3:10 to Yuma" and "No Country For Old Men," saw 8% - 10% of their sales in the Blu-ray format. Catalog Blu-ray titles that were also in the top 10, such as "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," "300," "Planet Earth: The Complete Collection," and "Casino Royale," saw overall DVD/Blu-ray sales jump to 18% - 28% for the Blu-ray versions of those titles during the first quarter. The surge will no doubt continue with today's official announcement from Paramount that "Transformers" will be coming to Blu-ray on September 2. A slew of additional heavyweight new and classic titles begins to hit Blu-ray this week with "Cloverfield" and Warner's "Dirty Harry" collection and continues next month with "Top Gun" and special editions of Batman and Tom Clancy Jack Ryan movies and the "Starship Troopers" trilogy. [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 2 June 2008 17:02
FredBun (Senior Member) 11 June 2008 22:07
When I go to my local rental store I see the bluray shelves full, nobody even rents them let alone buy them, I don't go by the stats mostly, I go by what I see in the trenches for myself. As for the quality, after visiting friends and neighbors with all kinds of different size lcd or plasma's, and I do have 20-20 vision still, what I have learned is anything over 40 in. bluray kinda makes a little better of a differnce, 50 or more makes a big difference, 40 or under just like plextor said, you don't need it, actually you are throwing your money out the window, and especially most of the dvd players are the one's I believe they call upconverted or other (I'm not a techie)so I'm not quoting, but those sets are like 75 bucks, with those watching a regular dvd on a 40 or below set you would probably need to have an eye of an eagle to see any difference between the bluray and standard. So you people with 40 or unders, don't waste your money, and the one's thinking about upgrading to 40 or under, don't get excited thinking your viewing pleasure will get better with bluray because it won't. [ + quote]
HDNow (Newbie) 11 June 2008 22:40
Where I am BluRay is selling very well. In the Walmart the PS3 sold out, the Magnavox sold out, the Samsung sold out, the Sony and Panasonic only 1 player left. The movies some are $15 and very few left. Other movies are $19 to $25 and selling very well too. The new movies like Bee Movie and There Will Be Blood and Jumper all sold out. I wanted HDDVD but now BluRay is the only way to get highdef movies. [ + quote]
FredBun (Senior Member) 12 June 2008 0:00
Well congrats at your local stores, the walmarts here in the philly and surrounding area's all bluray stuff is sitting and rotting. [ + quote]