AfterDawn: Tech news

Analysts change Blu-ray forecast after just 3 months

Written by Rich Fiscus (Google+) @ 06 Feb 2009 11:13 User comments (30)

Analysts change Blu-ray forecast after just 3 months At least once a month we seem to publish the latest figures from some faceless group of "media analysts" claiming to have consulted their crystal ball and divined the future of the video market. February's flavor of the month this year is SNL Kagan. Two days ago they issued a press release boldly predicting Blu-ray will dominate the home video market in 2014 only to be overtaken by online video three years later. It makes for good press, but why should we believe them?
Let's start with the obvious fact. Nobody knows the future. I'd be willing to bet there was no 2001 SNL Kagan report correctly predicting DVD sales for this year. There's simply no way they could have known what would be happening with Blu-ray, online video, or even the economy.

I don't have a 2001 report to prove that with, but as it happens I do have another press release from just before the Christmas shopping season last year. If they really can forecast sales it should look about the same as their current report right? Well it doesn't.

According to the November 2008 press release "SNL Kagan estimates there will be 46.2 million high-definition player homes, with the number increasing to 107.1 million by 2017." Meanwhile the latest guess for 2017, just three months later, is "115.2 million high-definition DVD homes."

Taking out the approximately 3 million Blu-ray capable homes right now (or 10 million including PS3s) that's around an 8% difference. Have things changed so much in three months? Actually yes they have. We've seen the Christmas 2008 sales figures. And guess what, they will change again in the next six months, and next Christmas, and on, and on, and on.

So the next time you see numbers from a bunch of media analysts, ask yourself this. If they know so much about the future why aren't the playing the stock market instead of selling data about Blu-ray, or DVD, or online video, or whatever it is? Instead of starting a flamewar on some anonymous internet forum, spare yourself some headaches and high blood pressure and just make up your own numbers. You can always revise them when the next report comes out.

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30 user comments

16.2.2009 11:19

1 out of every 10 posts here will be people saying that blu-ray will die within 7 years. 8 out of 10 will be people that don't really care what will be the the best by 2017. the last 1 out of 10 will be fan boys defending blu ray against people that are in denial as to the fact that the future changes the present and newer media formats will prevail.
10 outta 10 posts will be forgetton about within 3 days

26.2.2009 12:13

Originally posted by lawndog:
1 out of every 10 posts here will be people saying that blu-ray will die within 7 years. 8 out of 10 will be people that don't really care what will be the the best by 2017. the last 1 out of 10 will be fan boys defending blu ray against people that are in denial as to the fact that the future changes the present and newer media formats will prevail.
10 outta 10 posts will be forgetton about within 3 days
Nice love your statistics, LD

36.2.2009 13:35
atomicxl
Inactive

I read articles like this and I wonder if Afterdawn is a site that post tech news or a bunch of angry writers who blog about tech news.

46.2.2009 13:57

This is a bit more of an editorial piece than an actual news article. It might have read better if the writer stated the new report and simply contrasted the previous report without editorializing. I agree though, that the stats are constantly in flux and trying to predict "what's next" is practically impossible. ---Chikn

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 06 Feb 2009 @ 13:58

56.2.2009 14:29

Quote:
So the next time you see numbers from a bunch of media analysts, ask yourself this. If they know so much about the future why aren't the playing the stock market instead of selling data about Blu-ray, or DVD, or online video, or whatever it is? Instead of starting a flamewar on some anonymous internet forum, spare yourself some headaches and high blood pressure and just make up your own numbers. You can always revise them when the next report comes out.
Good god almighty! Who the hell wrote this? A 10th grader?? Why does Afterdawn insist on hiring 21yo bloggers to do their stories? At LEAST hire someone with either an English writing degree or someone who has a few years experience writing articles.

Sigh. :(

66.2.2009 14:56

If Blu-Ray discs do not come under the $12 price tag in the next three months then I think you can chalk up this technology under the name of Beta.

The reason: NetFlix has over 1 million subscribers just on the 360 alone and the number of "On-Demand" movies we are seeing in the cable, satellite, and online space.

Oh yea, this isn't the economy of 2007 when the PS3 was released in the U.S. Almost two years later and the price of the blu-ray has gone down a mere $7 per disc. Not going to cut it in the current times.

If people are cancelling cable to watch tv online...how do you think blu-ray is going to fair?

Just wrong place wrong time for Sony technology which explains the plunging of their stock.

They finally win the DVD war only to lose it to economic times and fast approaching technology which will eclipse it.

Greed and poor economic timing will eventually doom the blu-ray.

76.2.2009 16:52

Originally posted by windsong:
Good god almighty! Who the hell wrote this? A 10th grader?? Why does Afterdawn insist on hiring 21yo bloggers to do their stories? At LEAST hire someone with either an English writing degree or someone who has a few years experience writing articles.

Sigh. :(
I believe vurbal (see just below the article's title) did this one.

He's been writing articles here for a while so I am sure it's alright. Even if it isn't the best english maybe he is just a bit tired and forgot to grammar check it. ;-)

I like seeing reports like this. It's fun to watch companies like this try and predict the future, only to see them "revise" their estimates every few months.

Quote:
Two days ago they issued a press release boldly predicting Blu-ray will dominate the home video market in 2014 only to be overtaken by online video three years later.
I find this prediction interesting because, while I personally don't care for Blu-Ray, if online video will take over in such a short time after Blu-Ray takes over DVD than why would anyone want to bother with Blu-Ray at all?

Peace

86.2.2009 17:41

It's articles like this that make me feel that afterdawn should change the category of "News" to something more appropriate like "OP-ED" or "Editorial." It would be more accurate and honest that way. The term "news" implies objectivity. You can't find much of that in this article, or say the seemingly endless series on DTV transition. There's a notable slant, driven by an unveiled agenda that pushes the "news" beyond being fact driven to being heavily driven by opinion.

96.2.2009 17:58
cpuuk
Inactive

Blu-Ray, Smu-ray, I know that my HD DVD will win, that's why I've bought the player, discs and TV to match- let's see them crystal ball that future... what! it's what!Damn it, looks like I'll have to fall back on my Betamax, Laserdisc and my trusty 8-track.

Seriously, the only thing stopping Blu-Ray taking off are the ridiculous prices they expect people to pay.

106.2.2009 19:00

Until ISPs stop screwing over their consumers with caps and bad plans online video aint happening, for now BR is it.

BTW you grammar nazis need to read content for its content now how prefect the style of the witritng is...

116.2.2009 19:10

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Until ISPs stop screwing over their consumers with caps and bad plans online video aint happening, for now BR is it.

BTW you grammar nazis need to read content for its content now how prefect the style of the witritng is...
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 08 Feb 2009 @ 12:57

126.2.2009 19:14

Quote:
Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Until ISPs stop screwing over their consumers with caps and bad plans online video aint happening, for now BR is it.

BTW you grammar nazis need to read content for its content now how prefect the style of the witritng is...
Yeah Zippy...kind of how people listened to Obama's content before voting for him?

Now look where we are.

Zippy...ISP's don't stop Netflix streaming online jackass.
Not paying attention are we?
ISPs are starting to limit bandwidth in a mis guided effort to throw the baby out with the bath water.

The larger ISPs are part of the media mafia and they will do everything they can to push consumers off them and back into buying media from traditional sources.

And then there is shoehorning in the tiered net witch is coming becusr big brother is paid to look the other way.

136.2.2009 20:26

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Until ISPs stop screwing over their consumers with caps and bad plans online video aint happening, for now BR is it.

BTW you grammar nazis need to read content for its content now how prefect the style of the witritng is...
Yeah Zippy...kind of how people listened to Obama's content before voting for him?

Now look where we are.

Zippy...ISP's don't stop Netflix streaming online jackass.
Not paying attention are we?
ISPs are starting to limit bandwidth in a mis guided effort to throw the baby out with the bath water.

The larger ISPs are part of the media mafia and they will do everything they can to push consumers off them and back into buying media from traditional sources.

And then there is shoehorning in the tiered net witch is coming becusr big brother is paid to look the other way.
Typical...you only use one part of my quote. However, people can read what I wrote so it clearly won't be misinterpreted.

I'm wondering why you didn't put in my part of the quote where I agreed with you that ISP are limiting bandwidth?

Maybe you are just here to start trouble which is clearly the case.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 06 Feb 2009 @ 20:27

146.2.2009 20:41

knock it off the both of you or you are both off this site!! UNDERSTAND!!!

156.2.2009 20:53

Quote:
Two days ago they issued a press release boldly predicting Blu-ray will dominate the home video market in 2014 only to be overtaken by online video three years later.
vurbal needs to re-visit the original article. The original article doesn't say that online will overtake BD by 2017.

SNL Kagan Expects Blu-ray to Drive Growth in Home Video Revenue over the Next Decade

Quote:
SNL Kagan projects that high-definition DVD will attain 59.7% market share in 2014, with $13.1 billion in revenue. By 2017, this figure is expected to soar to 73.8%, or $15.6 billion....
If BluRay is projected to have 73.8% by 2017 then how can online "overtake" it at that time?

Quote:
"Blu-ray will be the driving force behind the video retail market throughout the next decade," said Wade Holden, analyst at SNL Kagan. "The current economic climate, however, will slow the growth of this new format and likely keep it from reaching the heights that it may have in better times. VOD services will continue to improve in both technology and content over the next decade and begin to draw consumers away from Blu-ray and DVD by 2017.
So the correct interpretation is that by 2017 online will start to draw consumers away from packaged media.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 06 Feb 2009 @ 20:55

166.2.2009 21:10

i don't think the spinning little discs will go anywhere, as there will always be the need to hold a physical copy, like news papers.

176.2.2009 23:14

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Until ISPs stop screwing over their consumers with caps and bad plans online video aint happening, for now BR is it.

BTW you grammar nazis need to read content for its content now how prefect the style of the witritng is...
Yeah Zippy...kind of how people listened to Obama's content before voting for him?

Now look where we are.

Zippy...ISP's don't stop Netflix streaming online jackass.
Not paying attention are we?
ISPs are starting to limit bandwidth in a mis guided effort to throw the baby out with the bath water.

The larger ISPs are part of the media mafia and they will do everything they can to push consumers off them and back into buying media from traditional sources.

And then there is shoehorning in the tiered net witch is coming becusr big brother is paid to look the other way.
Typical...you only use one part of my quote. However, people can read what I wrote so it clearly won't be misinterpreted.

I'm wondering why you didn't put in my part of the quote where I agreed with you that ISP are limiting bandwidth?

Maybe you are just here to start trouble which is clearly the case.
Actually Zippy is correctt. Bandwidth limits will effect how much HD content you can view before your cut off or have to pay extra for your DSL or Cable internet connection. I've recently switched to a business class service just to avoid the caps. I agree blu-ray is extremely overpriced but you'll pay just as much or more than blu-ray per movie if you go over your bandwidth cap.
Looks to me like your the one starting trouble. You called the man a Jackass for no reason. Your obviously nothing more than a Sony hater looking to put down anybody who might have any reason why blu-ray might survive.

187.2.2009 0:27

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Until ISPs stop screwing over their consumers with caps and bad plans online video aint happening, for now BR is it.

BTW you grammar nazis need to read content for its content now how prefect the style of the witritng is...
Yeah Zippy...kind of how people listened to Obama's content before voting for him?

Now look where we are.

Zippy...ISP's don't stop Netflix streaming online jackass.
Not paying attention are we?
ISPs are starting to limit bandwidth in a mis guided effort to throw the baby out with the bath water.

The larger ISPs are part of the media mafia and they will do everything they can to push consumers off them and back into buying media from traditional sources.

And then there is shoehorning in the tiered net witch is coming becusr big brother is paid to look the other way.
Typical...you only use one part of my quote. However, people can read what I wrote so it clearly won't be misinterpreted.

I'm wondering why you didn't put in my part of the quote where I agreed with you that ISP are limiting bandwidth?

Maybe you are just here to start trouble which is clearly the case.
Actually Zippy is correctt. Bandwidth limits will effect how much HD content you can view before your cut off or have to pay extra for your DSL or Cable internet connection. I've recently switched to a business class service just to avoid the caps. I agree blu-ray is extremely overpriced but you'll pay just as much or more than blu-ray per movie if you go over your bandwidth cap.
Looks to me like your the one starting trouble. You called the man a Jackass for no reason. Your obviously nothing more than a Sony hater looking to put down anybody who might have any reason why blu-ray might survive.
Or your bandwidth is nackered but functional turning your HD stream into pause.....play...puase play...or if its a auto connection type into SD video.

IE...from beer to piss LOL

But more to the point the ISPs need to go after speed not amount, if they go after amount they'll find their user base drying up, then again in middle sized cities where you have ATT or Cable theres not much choice.

197.2.2009 1:24

well as it appears the latest figures are in. And of the people surveyed seemed to think that media based and supplied over the internet even with band widths is going to be the way that the general public is going to view media.
my original figures are incorrect and should be disregarded because I'm paid alot of money to spill useless facts that provide information that promotes the highest bidder.
At this momenmt Internet is better then Blu-ray.
But have no fear, I'm expecting a call from scandisc saying their going to movies on jump drives. if their price is bigger then blu-ray, and the net new figures will lean towards scandisc.
Oh and BTW, this is not a real news report. This is a fabrication of my stupid brain

207.2.2009 1:42

Originally posted by lawndog:
well as it appears the latest figures are in. And of the people surveyed seemed to think that media based and supplied over the internet even with band widths is going to be the way that the general public is going to view media.
my original figures are incorrect and should be disregarded because I'm paid alot of money to spill useless facts that provide information that promotes the highest bidder.
At this momenmt Internet is better then Blu-ray.
But have no fear, I'm expecting a call from scandisc saying their going to movies on jump drives. if their price is bigger then blu-ray, and the net new figures will lean towards scandisc.
Oh and BTW, this is not a real news report. This is a fabrication of my stupid brain
LOL

But the net is only better for "social pirates" if you pay for all youer content its much worse, 16GB jump disc is about 30$ whole sale so blu ray is great, even mroe so when discs are 50cents a pop :P


We need 3 things to make the net great 1 ISPs that charge by speed not by amounts, the ability to easily subscribe to and view TV online in HD and faster net of course.

Charge 10 per 1MBPS under 3MBPS, and 5$ over 3MBPS(first 3 covered), 3$ over ten MBPS(first ten covered) this will balance things out.

The cable companies are going to have to just reform their infrastructure alil bit to allow for individual speed control.

217.2.2009 9:40
oappi
Inactive

I bet most of the people like having somekind of physical copy what they bought. Imho online video services are most likely only going to affect blu-ray rentals. Just to name few reasons why i would state something like this.

1. Trust. Do people really trust "movie service provider" to store their movies? What happens to your movies if your movie "provider" goes bankruptcy? In traditional disk you only have to trust your seller to ship it or hand it to you after you pay them. With digital copy if you dont have that copy in your pc you might have to trust them rest of your life.

2. Number of choices. What if your movie provider doesnīt for some reason distribute movie you want(really old or not so "liked" movie)? You have to go to other providers service and create new account. Do you really want to remeber what movies you have under every service provider when you have registered lets say to 4-5 proviers?

I just dont think movie studios will allow you to store movies on your own pc since they want to be in control of their product even after you have bought it. If they did only hdd crash is needed to loose your whole collection.

3.Bandwidth caps. Like already stated here more and more isp:s are setting caps how mutch you can download. Even if they didnt, BD/Hd-dvd quality video+audio material would take so mutch bandwidth most of people wouldīt have that good bandwidth. We are talking over 20mb/s speeds here. If you can not watch it as "live steam" (while you download) one can make a argument that it is faster to go store and buy the damn thing.

4. How to give something like this as a present? Do you write something on the paper and wrap it up? At least i would prefer disk.

5 Can you sell them? in loved and hated steam service (game online distribution) you cannot sell your games. For me steam is grate service since it hides most of the drm, cd-keys, etc so you just have to push "play" (and i havenīt ever sold my games). Games are also mutch more frequently used than movies so they get scratches faster. None of my movies have gone unplayable, but same canīt be said about my non steam games.

So my prediction is that in less than 10 years Online distribution will remain under 30% and will mostly be used as rental service. If im wrong it is because us and other countries for some reason suddenly want to put alot of money on internet network (mainly to replace old cables with fiberoptics).

227.2.2009 10:02

Originally posted by oappi:
I bet most of the people like having somekind of physical copy what they bought. Imho online video services are most likely only going to affect blu-ray rentals. Just to name few reasons why i would state something like this.

1. Trust. Do people really trust "movie service provider" to store their movies? What happens to your movies if your movie "provider" goes bankruptcy? In traditional disk you only have to trust your seller to ship it or hand it to you after you pay them. With digital copy if you dont have that copy in your pc you might have to trust them rest of your life.

2. Number of choices. What if your movie provider doesnīt for some reason distribute movie you want(really old or not so "liked" movie)? You have to go to other providers service and create new account. Do you really want to remeber what movies you have under every service provider when you have registered lets say to 4-5 proviers?

I just dont think movie studios will allow you to store movies on your own pc since they want to be in control of their product even after you have bought it. If they did only hdd crash is needed to loose your whole collection.

3.Bandwidth caps. Like already stated here more and more isp:s are setting caps how mutch you can download. Even if they didnt, BD/Hd-dvd quality video+audio material would take so mutch bandwidth most of people wouldīt have that good bandwidth. We are talking over 20mb/s speeds here. If you can not watch it as "live steam" (while you download) one can make a argument that it is faster to go store and buy the damn thing.

4. How to give something like this as a present? Do you write something on the paper and wrap it up? At least i would prefer disk.

5 Can you sell them? in loved and hated steam service (game online distribution) you cannot sell your games. For me steam is grate service since it hides most of the drm, cd-keys, etc so you just have to push "play" (and i havenīt ever sold my games). Games are also mutch more frequently used than movies so they get scratches faster. None of my movies have gone unplayable, but same canīt be said about my non steam games.

So my prediction is that in less than 10 years Online distribution will remain under 30% and will mostly be used as rental service. If im wrong it is because us and other countries for some reason suddenly want to put alot of money on internet network (mainly to replace old cables with fiberoptics).
You have those issues but I think that if terrestrial providers looked at what they could sale through the internet (with speeds increasing for core cities) they could sale TV channels through the net, with all the possible small revenue streams they can get stead money out of they wont be able to lock subscription content to the TV/cable/Sat anymore.

237.2.2009 17:46

Analysts... with a few bucks they can sing what ever you like.
They dont just change their minds they are not that stupid.

What i dont get with some people is... so what if BD lives or die? so what? why you care so much what will happen to BD?

Streaming content will never be able to replace physical media, no matter if it is called BD, DVD, flash drives or what ever that will be.

Either way right now BD is the only HD physical media available and it is supported from a lot companies, IMO i dont thing that BD will go away that easy.

247.2.2009 17:52

Originally posted by SDF_GR:
Analysts... with a few bucks they can sing what ever you like.
They dont just change their minds they are not that stupid.

What i dont get with some people is... so what if BD lives or die? so what? why you care so much what will happen to BD?

Streaming content will never be able to replace physical media, no matter if it is called BD, DVD, flash drives or what ever that will be.

Either way right now BD is the only HD physical media available and it is supported from a lot companies, IMO i dont thing that BD will go away that easy.

Look at it like this in 20 years when cell phones and most wireless devices can stream full HD, why would the industrys waste time and money creating another Pharisaical format?

When its cheaper and easier to just sell sht online.

258.2.2009 5:49

Quote:
Yeah Zippy...kind of how people listened to Obama's content before voting for him?

Now look where we are.
I know this is off topic but i feel i had to say this. You cant hold one man accountable in just a few weeks for what another man has done over the last 8 years. A while after bush was in office he tried to pass a law giving big companies the choice to whether or not they payed employees at overtime rate once they had passed their 40hr in a week. Thank god it didnot pass but there was a friend i use to work with who went around with a petition as well as others had petitions sent in to the government showing their displeasure with the idea.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 08 Feb 2009 @ 5:59

268.2.2009 6:01

Quote:
Quote:
Yeah Zippy...kind of how people listened to Obama's content before voting for him?

Now look where we are.
I know this is off topic but i feel i had to say this. You cant hold one man accountable in just a few weeks for what another man has done over the last 8 years.
Ture, though I would blame Chaney more than anything, Dubya was the failed business man remember.

I can;t blame him for much hes not a thinker nor a intellectual just another person whos high amongst his peers because who his dad was.

Now Bama..er...Obama(sorry automatic politician disrespect mode is hard to un automate :P) Obama is a suit and a intellectual...its rather nice to see soemone whos capable of of thinking and lying at the same time in high office, again no disrespect to Obama but politicians are crooks its just a fact of life, but at least Obama gives me hope Government is returning to "standards of jenusaque".

The reapers fed themselfs fat and let their corporate fuck buddies do what they wanted, while the dims got in on the orgy the 2 party system has failed us as is moving further away from founding documents of the nation.

I do hate the fundies but the PC nazis are just as bad if not even more furverous and petty... I mean whats worse a government that is quick to change and do stuff or one made incompetent because its members are unable to do anything but worry over their own millions and vacation time...

We need to get back to majority rule not rule land slides, we need to lower and limit what the noble class of officials make and can do in and out of office...

2710.2.2009 22:33

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/1422488-post3.html

Quote:
Well, coming from a forecasting background...I find that after dawn article absolutely and utterly worthless. Forecasting always has the downfall of being inaccurate...obviously no one can see the future. But it's still an interesting, and important facet of the finance and operations of these products, and gives good insight to what others are thinking. Saying they're not always right, and keep changing their numbers like that's a bad thing, as opposed to expected...just seems a little...dim witted. Forecasting always suffers from consistent revision...that hardly makes it meaningless and irrelevant. And it hardly means making up numbers is just as good. It does mean using forecasts as if their the gospel...is not really the right way to go. But that goes for supporters and detractors. You can't say BD is definitely going for the gold like it's a fact, because such and such analyst said so...but you also can't cry how awful something is doing...simply because an analyst got something wrong.
I couldn't have said it better myself.

2811.2.2009 2:42

Originally posted by Toshibot:
It does mean using forecasts as if their the gospel...is not really the right way to go.
Even better!
Don't believe the hype and always keep a realistic view of things "foretasted" or not.

Copyright infringement is nothing more than civil disobedience to a bad set of laws. Lets renegotiate them.

---
Check out my crappy creations
http://zippydsmlee.deviantart.com/

2918.2.2009 11:54

man, you have no clue! angry & stupid text

3018.2.2009 13:38

pernoh, watch it as don't need a flamewar.

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