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Analysts predict format war to end next year

18 December 2007 14:33 by Rich "vurbal" Fiscus | 56 comments

Analysts predict format war to end next year Analysts at U.K. based Screen Digest are now predicting that either HD DVD or Blu-ray will win the hi-def format war next year, although they're not guessing which one. This is a switch from their position over the last few months which has been in agreement with others in the industry that neither format would dominate for at least another 2-4 years.

The Christmas shopping season has already seen supporters of both formats declaring imminent victory, and rumors that Warner Brothers plans to announce that they're backing one or the other (depending on who you heard the rumor from) at CES next January.

"It would only take one major player to shift allegiances to push the tipping point one way or another," said analyst Richard Cooper.

Their report was more certain when it comes to gaming consoles where they predict Sony's PS3 will see big sales growth and become serious competition for Xbox 360 from Microsoft and the Nintendo Wii.

The report, titles 'Global Media Markets: The Battlegrounds of 2008' also forecasts a good year for 3-D digital cinema. Analysts see as many as 1,300 digital 3-D theater screens internationally, as well as more releases for them.

"There is a very strong lineup of films and heavy studio slate as studios invest heavily in what they think will be the next revolution in the theatrical experience," said Screen Digest film and cinema analyst Charlotte Jones. Next year will see "3-D movies really enter the mainstream multiplex environment."

Source: Variety

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    Discuss this article!  There are more user comments available, read them here
    hughjars (Inactive) 19 December 2007 10:57 Send private message to this user   
    Pretending HD DVDs are really expensive ($30+) is just a regular Blu-ray fanboy lie.

    This is the truth -

    Go to Amazon USA.
    Look for HD DVD with their search.
    The 1st page alone is full of single HD DVD discs between $12.50 for a couple, several at $19.99 and a few at $24.95.

    Then do the same thing on Blu-ray and you'll find prices starting at $13.50 for a couple, and most of the rest at $23.95.

    The Blu-ray fanboys are the last to 'get' this.

    Everyone else has walked away from predicting an easy Blu-ray victory long ago.

    Even the head Blu-ray BS'er Howard Stringer has walked away from the fanboy stupidity & has said he only sees a stalemate.

    Only the Blu-ray fanboys are left now preaching (to themselves) about an imminent Blu win.

    LMAO.
    nobrainer (Inactive) 19 December 2007 11:56 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by hughjars:
    Pretending HD DVDs are really expensive ($30+) is just a regular Blu-ray fanboy lie.

    This is the truth -

    Go to Amazon USA.
    Look for HD DVD with their search.
    The 1st page alone is full of single HD DVD discs between $12.50 for a couple, several at $19.99 and a few at $24.95.

    Then do the same thing on Blu-ray and you'll find prices starting at $13.50 for a couple, and most of the rest at $23.95.

    The Blu-ray fanboys are the last to 'get' this.

    Everyone else has walked away from predicting an easy Blu-ray victory long ago.

    Even the head Blu-ray BS'er Howard Stringer has walked away from the fanboy stupidity & has said he only sees a stalemate.

    Only the Blu-ray fanboys are left now preaching (to themselves) about an imminent Blu win.

    LMAO.
    the thing you failed to mention there is that Blu-Ray is region locked and the DRM in blu-ray players will not allow any region code hacks to run as they will just shut down via the DRM on blu-ray discs at the request of the MPAA so global price fixing can continue, but HD-DVD can play any film from any country!

    Tor: anonymity online HIDE your IP from the spies, post and browse anonymously! http://www.torproject.org/


    THE RIAA SOUNDEXCHANGE ARE: SONY, UNIVERSAL , WARNER GROUP, EMI.

    THE MPAA ARE: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, DISNEY, PARAMOUNT, FOX.

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 19 December 2007 12:01

    wolf123 (Member) 19 December 2007 12:01 Send private message to this user   
    Why has no one mentioned one thing.

    The early format war of the 1980's was beta and vhs but one thing stood in the way of sony and there all mighty better quality beta.

    The Porn industry but I know it's on the internet mostly now but still you have too admit there is still alot of porn dvd's out there if the porn industry get too use one of the HD formats and if sony wants too win they are going too have too let them use BD too win.

    If not and they use HD then they will win.

    But I see it this way like someone said most of us don't have HD TV's yet so that means there will have too be a big push and I know best buy already is only selly the HD tv.

    I think people want quality more then qauntity now more then when they choose the vhs that was qauntity.

    I know some of my ranting doesn't make since but oh well wehn the price is right and the BD is the winner and the PS3 is cheaper then I will be happy.

    But I am satisfied with regular DVD's now.

    Anyway I would love too see BD win more space so that means if they are smart they will be able too put a whole season of a tv show on 1 BD instead of 6 regular if I am right.
    tester22 (Newbie) 19 December 2007 13:49 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by nobrainer:
    How the battle will be worked out is by the ratio of hi-def media sold compared to the amount of players in peoples homes.

    this report is complete bull crap because DVD is not going anywhere soon and next gen offers very little over current DVD's.


    AGREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



    Both formats are here to stay folks...........I'd bet my life on it. Besides, it's just sensible so I can understand why so many think only 1 will prevail. Kinda like conversing with a brick wall.

    I Just can't understand why people don't see that. Ain't like manufacturers have to spindle on a reel of tape for both formats and make VCRs that can switch (mechanically) over from one to another. Just another chip in the box. Whatever, this issue is dead and so are the mentalities debating for a single format.
    hade (Senior Member) 19 December 2007 15:00 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by tester22:
    News flash amigo, new release DVDs are still out at Bestbuy for 14.99 for the first week then back up to 19.99 or 21.99 shortly thereafter. 4X my foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    where in my post did i say or even mention new releases? so i guess those who buy hd-dvd players are only in the market for the new releases from the point they bought the player and so on. so like i said most will wonder why pay $19.99 or $24.95 or even $27.95 for a movie when you can still pick it up for $9.99, $5.99 or w/e the going rate is at the walmart bin. so yes there are GOOD movies that are 2x,3x,4x cheaper. i didn't say or imply every movie, did i?

    Originally posted by tester22:
    HD movies WILL SELL EVENTUALLY and bump regular DVD out. It's the natural evolution of technology. Many peeps truly want HD movies and exactly HOW DID YOU PULL THIS OUTTA YOUR ARSE........

    will eventually sell, natural evolution, how long do you suppose that is going to take? some on here think and for good reason that DVD isn't really going anywhere anytime soon.

    we'll be bold and say there are 1MILLION HD-DVD players in the US. 111,400,000 households in the US leads us to a consumer acceptance rate of .0089... NOT EVEN 1% of the general public has adopted into this HD era. but yeah "many peeps" want HD. should i ask how you pulled that statement out of your arse? here at Afterdawn the HD-DVD monkey position is already filled, not sure where your going to fit in or want to fit in at.

    as usual hughjars is unable to make any argument what so ever, probably confused and unable to understand the illustrated points and theory. similar to his unwillingness to respond in other threads. im sure your wondering which, so i'll bring up the one where eatsushi was so kind to present "disc replication" costs for hd-dvd and blu-ray, which of course nullified your argument of higher production costs and thus kept your fingers quiet. this is evident here, really, i'll show you.

    you fail to mention the argument on percentages of movie sales, HD-DVD current prices with respect to the upcoming cheap alternatives, and the argument that the chinese players who upscale won't affect HD-DVD in a positive way....may be your still trying to figure it out. don't worry im not going anywhere

    Originally posted by hughjars:
    We know those coming Chinese players are decent quality.

    How come?

    Because they are basically a Toshiba HD A3.

    They have been stripped down and checked over, sorry that it obviously sticks in your throats but they are nice units, actually.

    Obviously you're another one who can't get your head around the whole business of licenced manufacture and contract component manufacture.

    oh god, for once please take off your HD-DVD badge and think like a rational person. if you want to believe all your "rambling" then FINE. believe it. BUT, i am telling you something so listen....if these chinese players are "IDENTICAL" in every aspect right down to the individual components, then at $100 pricetag that YOU, YOURSELF keep insisting on, it will COMPLETELY ELIMINATE the market for current/future toshiba A-3 players. considering the pricetags of the other toshiba players that i listed above, i see this as detrimental to toshiba's standalone market stance. how would you feel if Honda handed over the Blueprints to FORD for the Accord? how long do you think it would be till FORD ruined the reputation of the Accord? Why do you think that would happen? Lowering transaction costs, manufacturing costs, reduce quality of components, focusing on increasing profits rather than quality and the list goes on. Just because you have the breakdown or replicate a certain good doesn't mean it'll perform with the same quality, especially when the listed price is $200 cheaper. its priced cheaper for a reason and unfortunately economies of scale don't come to play yet. so again as i said before with these cheaper prices Toshiba would have to cut production to stay competitive to help minimize losses. they could also develop another standalone but that also costs $$$$, so don't be too surprised given this scenario when toshiba exits the market all together.

    Originally posted by hughjars:
    Open you PS3 or Blu-ray standalone (if you're one of the few with one), it's full of made in China parts.

    So I guess it's a case of "quality products over in the china...hmmmm prices are cut or low for a reason"

    Low quality PS3s & Blu-ray players then, huh?

    LMAO.

    actually considering the number of blu-ray players on the market i'd say there is a greater probability that i actually own a blu-ray player, now wouldn't there be? 3Million blu-rays to 1Million HD-DVDs....yeah and yes i do own a launch ps3, thanks for wondering though.

    so again you fail miserably trying to put my words in my mouth with your lameass analogy. yes you do get what you pay for, so considering the pricepoint i paid ($599) parts made or not manufactured in China, given my LOGIC, would only IMPLY that Those Parts are of HIGHER QUALITY than that of say your "HD-A3" chinese duplicate. seriously please don't try and nitpick my posts for flaws that you think you can capitalize on. im not 14 or uneducated, so keep to picking on the other folks whose posts you enjoy ripping to end. probably makes you feel good, boy does that HD-DVD badge shine.

    also no where in my post did i say parts manufactured in china are inferior, but i did imply that a conceptual copy of a product that is expected (according to YOU) to be priced at $100 as opposed to its predecessor price of $299, surely must have inferior components or quality.

    on topic: the reason why Warner is a big player but not necessarily the ultimate player is that w/e side they choose, it'll open the doors for greater consumer acceptance into this new market. something we have yet to see. if they side blu-ray expect the format struggle to end within a year. too much studio support. if its hd-dvd expect the two formats to continue for atleast 2 years before it becomes solely hd-dvd as long as their is the domino effect of disney/fox/lionsgate etc to follow suit. "many peeps" i probably should have stopped reading there. certainly i expect you to get bored of my posts, its probably above you anyhow. "many peeps" still can't get over that one, AD always good for laughs.

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 20 December 2007 11:31

    DoomLight (Newbie) 19 December 2007 19:40 Send private message to this user   
    when i can't get my shat on DVD format then i will go to the nextformat. when that happen, we'll truly know who wins the format war. so blu-ray and HD-DVD can kiss my arse till that happens
    ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 20 December 2007 1:56 Send private message to this user   
    came in late, but anyway the format war wont end until someone gives up and that wont happen for another 2-5 years.
    nobrainer (Inactive) 20 December 2007 8:46 Send private message to this user   
    @ hade

    please check your quotes as the only one i made is:

    Originally posted by nobrainer:
    How the battle will be worked out is by the ratio of hi-def media sold compared to the amount of players in peoples homes.

    this report is complete bull crap because DVD is not going anywhere soon and next gen offers very little over current DVD's.

    so at the moment there is in excess of 6 1/2 million blu ray players and around 1 million hd-dvd players so if the lead is 3 to 1 in favour of blu-ray the ratio proves that more hd-dvd owners are purchasing films than blu-ray owners, get the point?


    do your parents and grandparents really care about a few extra pixels, other than the "keeping up with the jone's" types!


    imho, i dont want and will never buy into sony's MPAA format becoming the format of choice, as who wants them anti consumer companies having the strangle hold over the hardware as well as the software!

    you already have the global price fixing region codes on blu-ray and BD+ DRM that enables studios to run any code they wish on YOUR hardware to stop the apparent piracy which is damaging the industry regardless that every fiscal year profits are on the increase, but it gives sony and co reason to make more DRM are get paid from all directions.

    I'm sure the sony bloggers will be here or face the sack to discredit my comments,,, cue nextgen!

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/04/02/compulsory_blogging/

    Originally posted by fta:
    We've all heard about employees being sacked for blogging. But as the fad begins to wane, will staff soon be sacked for failing to blog?

    Last week, Sony BMG UK issued a new corporate marketing strategy.

    According to an official release from the group, Ged Doherty, chairman and chief executive of SonyBMG in UK and Ireland, said the company "has made it obligatory for all senior staff at both Columbia Records and RCA Records to start blogging actively".


    Tor: anonymity online HIDE your IP from the spies, post and browse anonymously! http://www.torproject.org/


    THE RIAA SOUNDEXCHANGE ARE: SONY, UNIVERSAL , WARNER GROUP, EMI.

    THE MPAA ARE: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, DISNEY, PARAMOUNT, FOX.

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 20 December 2007 9:01

    hade (Senior Member) 20 December 2007 11:27 Send private message to this user   
    my bad nobrainer, only saw the newbie part and mixed the names up. did it to elfman too not too long ago, don't take it personal post edited. if something is still goofed on my end let me know.

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 20 December 2007 11:32

    vinny13 (Inactive) 20 December 2007 12:43 Send private message to this user   
    Ya chinese no names are garbage compared to chinese name brands...

    I don't think I really have to explain this...


    tester22 (Newbie) 20 December 2007 13:29 Send private message to this user   
    I did say EVENTUALLY! I'm guessing standard DVD (and hoping) will sell strong for at least another 4 years and maintain for another 10.
    ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 20 December 2007 14:02 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by tester22:
    I did say EVENTUALLY! I'm guessing standard DVD (and hoping) will sell strong for at least another 4 years and maintain for another 10.
    ya DVDs are not going anywhere for another 6-10.
    NexGen76 (Member) 20 December 2007 14:40 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by nobrainer:
    I'm sure the sony bloggers will be here or face the sack to discredit my comments,,, cue nextgen!
    Sack what im to the point i don't even read your post anymore because you always have the same things in it...DRM,I hate Sony,& Anti consumer.Copy protection & DRM is the lease thing im worried about.I worried about Global terrorisms & The Patriot Act bill.Those are things i see that are really effecting people even day of life not that BS that got you hiding in a cave.Like i told you before if you don't like DRM or copy protection don't buy the product.But don't bash a company for protecting there best interest, even if it is money.




    Back on topic:

    The numbers has been leaked for last week & Blu-Ray has out sold HD-DVD yet again with no major exclsive title to take on The Bourne Ultimatum.Looks like HD-DVD not going to win a single week over BD thats strong going into CES08 next month.


    61%BD to 39%HD.
    Shegax (Junior Member) 20 December 2007 18:11 Send private message to this user   
    This whole Format war is funny to me. I know people who already bought ps3 are hoping blu ray will be victorious. Yet with me and other average people on the street see it this way: Everyone I have talked to like the hi def look, it's clear, great picture, and awesome resolution. In reality though the economy isn't doing to great and people don't want to spend 300$ or more on a player that might not play new movies in the future. Of course there are alot of sales, but MOST people are just waiting it out. My uncle said it best when he said: until I can buy a 25 disc spindle of hd-dvds or blue ray discs for 30$ and start burning all my home vids and pictures on it....I'll pass.
    pippincp (Member) 20 December 2007 22:16 Send private message to this user   
    There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

    Pip
    pippincp (Member) 20 December 2007 22:33 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by pippincp:
    There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

    Pip
    BTW The betamax v VHS war was not decided with porn if you think that you hsve a very SAD life!
    vinny13 (Inactive) 20 December 2007 23:29 Send private message to this user   
    Quote:
    Originally posted by pippincp:
    There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

    Pip
    BTW The betamax v VHS war was not decided with porn if you think that you hsve a very SAD life!

    lol
    ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 21 December 2007 0:10 Send private message to this user   
    Quote:
    Originally posted by pippincp:
    There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

    Pip
    BTW The betamax v VHS war was not decided with porn if you think that you hsve a very SAD life!
    No but it helped the over all outcome.
    Also the main diffrance between now and then is technological growth and starting of as a sub format before moving to main format replacement, BR and or HDVD could easily be replaced in the next 8 years.
    SamSwing (Newbie) 21 December 2007 1:33 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by scorpNZ:
    I predict it will be blue-ray or HD-DVD that will win..lmao.. who the frag are these dickhead anal-lysts,& how do i get a job wif em..lol..
    You miss the point of the statement. It doesn't say that there are any other choices. It says that the public will have chosen one or the other next year.
    mugs (Newbie) 21 December 2007 6:31 Send private message to this user   
    I think these people have way too much time on thier hands. I think i wont predict anything and just wait till the war is over. Then i will look around for a good deal on whats left.
    smcrzyguy (Newbie) 23 December 2007 7:23 Send private message to this user   
    I am sick of continuasly hearing about the stupid format war. I just want to come out and re-state that I am more than certain that NEITHER format is EVER going to "win" this "format war" all of these supposed professionals are retarded. No one reading this even knows what im talking about probably, but i feel the need to voice my opinion, and at least two years from now i can read this and laugh about all these professionals being wrong. This is the same supposed "format war" that happened between DVD+R/-R, look what happened. I am so confident in my prediction of multiformat HD players dominating (ones that play Blu-Ray AND hd-dvd), that i am willing to put $200 on it. If ever one format wins and the other stops selling I will give $200 to the person who holds me to it. ANYBODY

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 23 December 2007 7:29

    ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 23 December 2007 13:40 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by smcrzyguy:
    I am sick of continuasly hearing about the stupid format war. I just want to come out and re-state that I am more than certain that NEITHER format is EVER going to "win" this "format war" all of these supposed professionals are retarded. No one reading this even knows what im talking about probably, but i feel the need to voice my opinion, and at least two years from now i can read this and laugh about all these professionals being wrong. This is the same supposed "format war" that happened between DVD+R/-R, look what happened. I am so confident in my prediction of multiformat HD players dominating (ones that play Blu-Ray AND hd-dvd), that i am willing to put $200 on it. If ever one format wins and the other stops selling I will give $200 to the person who holds me to it. ANYBODY
    + and - are not totally separate formats like BR and HDVD are, alo most likely one will win the current Hdef war but something else will probably come along to replace DVD.
    smcrzyguy (Newbie) 23 December 2007 23:57 Send private message to this user   
    Quote:
    Originally posted by smcrzyguy:
    I am sick of continuasly hearing about the stupid format war. I just want to come out and re-state that I am more than certain that NEITHER format is EVER going to "win" this "format war" all of these supposed professionals are retarded. No one reading this even knows what im talking about probably, but i feel the need to voice my opinion, and at least two years from now i can read this and laugh about all these professionals being wrong. This is the same supposed "format war" that happened between DVD+R/-R, look what happened. I am so confident in my prediction of multiformat HD players dominating (ones that play Blu-Ray AND hd-dvd), that i am willing to put $200 on it. If ever one format wins and the other stops selling I will give $200 to the person who holds me to it. ANYBODY
    + and - are not totally separate formats like BR and HDVD are, alo most likely one will win the current Hdef war but something else will probably come along to replace DVD.
    They are completely separate formats, but they are the same size, and are ultimately read the same way. And there are already players that play both formats with all of the features of each. The fact is that there are studios who are on one side and some have switched at some point without intent to ever switch back. if consumers have a player that plays both, they will not care which format it is and they will buy movies according to whichever movie studio distributes the film. SO in the end people will always buy BOTH formats and movie studios will produce on whichever format they prefer (Blu-Ray or HD-DVD- until another format comes out, which will at some point happen).
    Shegax (Junior Member) 24 December 2007 2:05 Send private message to this user   
    No but it helped the over all outcome.
    Also the main diffrance between now and then is technological growth and starting of as a sub format before moving to main format replacement, BR and or HDVD could easily be replaced in the next 8 years.

    You know what thank you for that I forgot about formats like this. Hey guys do you think while this format is going on a newformat might emerge
    in the next couple years. I mean the guys right any one of theese could evnd up becoming a flop. REMEMBER LAZERDISC???????
    borhan9 (AfterDawn Addict) 27 December 2007 21:32 Send private message to this user   
    I'll believe it when i see it :)
    ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 27 December 2007 21:55 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by Shegax:
    No but it helped the over all outcome.
    Also the main diffrance between now and then is technological growth and starting of as a sub format before moving to main format replacement, BR and or HDVD could easily be replaced in the next 8 years.

    You know what thank you for that I forgot about formats like this. Hey guys do you think while this format is going on a newformat might emerge
    in the next couple years. I mean the guys right any one of theese could evnd up becoming a flop. REMEMBER LAZERDISC???????
    LAZERDISC was mainly a flop because of price,speed,quality, life span and support, HDVD/BR are litrealy re dos on the DVD spec they are bigger faster and what not they also each have a ton of support so it could jsut break down into a +/- thing where they share the market.
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