Analysts predict format war to end next year

first it was " it will be stalemate for years " now its "one will definitely win but we don't know which one "

in other words,despite their statistics, "brains" and detailed analysis, they haven't got an effing clue.......dimwits.

and now they are basing their opinions on "runours" that warner is possibly going to back one or another, what is tyhis ? Mystic Meg and her bloody crystal ball time ? reminds me of that stupid meg woman on the UK national lottery in the mid 90s "someone wearing blue will win a prize tonight " WOOOOO !!!! spot on meg !

Gradually they're all beginning to change their initial tune.

To begin with it was all supposed to be a Blu-ray walk-over.
Now it's a stalemate (even the head Sony Blu-ray BS'er Stringer admits he sees a stalemate.....and if he's prepared to go that far in public you can bet it's much worse for them).

I wonder how long until they have all backed away from their initial predictions completely and recognised the impact HD DVD is about to have in the J6P market.

When the coming $100 HD DVD players hit
(with $100 being the regular price, not a season special) and
regular DVD players begin to vanish to be replaced by nice upscaling DVD players that happen to also do very nice HD DVD
then you'll know it'll all be over soon.

It's a couple of months off, that's all.

That's what's coming - and the Blu-ray fanclub can sneer and look down their noses all they like but if you can't get the mainstream mass-market you aren't getting anywhere but stuck in the niche.

Even the discs will be the same with the 'Twin' version discs (with the movie in SD & HD DVD on the one side.

Blu-ray will end up as just another game console format with a relative handful of standalones & PC burners bolted on.

But it's obvious that it's HD DVD is the one moving in on the mainstream mass-market in a way that Blu-ray simply cannot do - even with them selling off buggy & dead old poorly spec'd 'profile 1.0' Samsungs & Sony S300s cheap. :P

The format War will give a clear picture after CES08 Jan 07 went we see how studios really feel about HD-DVD not beat Blu-Ray in sells the whole year.With Blu-Ray owning every HD market in the country this is going to be a no brainier move for Warner to move to Blu-Ray along with dimension films(The Weinstein Company) who is a exclsive studio for HD-DVD thats going Blu& Newline.Then Paramount 18 month exclsive deal runs out Jan09 & you can expect them to come back.

People have been backing away from their previous 'Blu-ray are going to walk it' positions or haven't you noticed nextgen?

You can make all the big claims and talk up Blu-ray all you like but despite being approx 10:1 down on players, HD DVD is now doing very nicely.

Blu-ray does not lead 10:1 on movies and has never come even remotely close to that.

The new Harry Potter will show this very clearly on Friday when the peak week sales numbers come in.
Once again we'll see Blu-ray fail to beat HD DVD by any genuinely significant amount.

That's how comes everyone (not blinded by the Blu-ray BS) knows this is just a matter of time.
The more HD DVD players sold the better it gets for HD DVD.

Blu-ray rely totally on a game console.
The truth is that the game console can never make the break into the mainstream a/v mass-market.
But $100 HD DVD will, very well indeed.

We already saw the Black Friday numbers,
Regular DVD beat the pants off of both high def formats.
But when regular DVD is also HD DVD that's when HD DVD begins to walk this.

Blu-ray simply cannot compete.
Not even with discounted dead & buggy Samsungs or poorly spec'd old Sony S300s.

Quote:

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Analysts at U.K. based Screen Digest are now predicting that either HD DVD or Blu-ray will win the hi-def format war next year

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Thanks Tips...

Originally posted by hughjars:

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We already saw the Black Friday numbers

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Ya Blu Ray sales were higher then HD-DVDs... Funny.

What was the point of bringing that up?

Quote:

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The more HD DVD players sold the better it gets for HD DVD.

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Wow, who knew?

And the Hairy Potter thing, I don't know why you would look at those sales because that was the worst one to date.

I think the same analyst that predicts this format war will end next year are the same people predicting the weather. They tell you its going to snow and its sunny and warm. They tell you its going to be warm in the 70's then you get a blizzard.

Quote:

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Originally posted by hughjars:

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We already saw the Black Friday numbers

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Ya Blu Ray sales were higher then HD-DVDs... Funny.

What was the point of bringing that up?

Quote:

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The more HD DVD players sold the better it gets for HD DVD.

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Wow, who knew?

And the Hairy Potter thing, I don't know why you would look at those sales because that was the worst one to date.

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vinny: Don't waste you time on things we already know the truth about.Lets move on we know what the facts are.


Vinny: it look like Blu-Ray going to have another strong week.Boune Ult have sold 5.4 million on DVD thats counting HD-DVD because of the combo disc.If POTC3 sold 8 million copies on DVD which Blu-Ray sold 160,000 the first week i have seen some people are saying that Borne Ult has sold around 75k to 85k on HD-DVD.On amazon Harry Potter BD is out selling Potter on HD-DVD im going to guess BD will have a edge of 3-1.Thats just a guess.

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Based on Pirates selling 8 million DVDs and 160,000 BDs, if you apply a straight ratio to Bourne's 5.3-5.4M DVDs, you end up with 106-108K HD-DVDs. But that's a straight ratio - If you apply a 60-40 split on the Bourne #s, you end up with something in the 70-75K range. That's probably somewhere close. If you apply a 2:1 split, Bourne'd be under 60K. But that probably didn't happen - let's face it, it's a good flick.

And anecdotally, it's rather telling they didn't highlight separate HD-DVD numbers with the Monday DVD announcement, like both sides have normally been doing on big sellers.

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Originally posted by hughjars:

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People have been backing away from their previous 'Blu-ray are going to walk it' positions or haven't you noticed nextgen?

You can make all the big claims and talk up Blu-ray all you like but despite being approx 10:1 down on players, HD DVD is now doing very nicely.

Blu-ray does not lead 10:1 on movies and has never come even remotely close to that.

The new Harry Potter will show this very clearly on Friday when the peak week sales numbers come in.
Once again we'll see Blu-ray fail to beat HD DVD by any genuinely significant amount.

That's how comes everyone (not blinded by the Blu-ray BS) knows this is just a matter of time.
The more HD DVD players sold the better it gets for HD DVD.

Blu-ray rely totally on a game console.
The truth is that the game console can never make the break into the mainstream a/v mass-market.
But $100 HD DVD will, very well indeed.

We already saw the Black Friday numbers,
Regular DVD beat the pants off of both high def formats.
But when regular DVD is also HD DVD that's when HD DVD begins to walk this.

Blu-ray simply cannot compete.
Not even with discounted dead & buggy Samsungs or poorly spec'd old Sony S300s.

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i Agree with you 100% man, i know using your points about black friday numbers (lol vinny13) and that blu-ray is the definite victor

Originally posted by vinny13:

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What was the point of bringing that up?

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- What?
What was the point of bringing up that regular DVD handsomely outsold both high def formats by several miles on Black Friday?

Well gee, I dunno.....but perhaps.....

......do you think it might possibly be that as good quality inexpensive Chinese upscaling DVD players
(that also happen to play HD DVD very nicely)
take over that 'regular' DVD market
and
that as those 'regular' DVD players disappear to be replaced by those coming brands
(that are good quality inexpensive upscaling DVD players that also happen to play HD DVD very nicely)
might have some bearing on this?

Shucks, who can tell, huh?

Originally posted by vinny13:

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Wow, who knew?

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- Yeah, imagine that, eh?

Funnily enough I see movie sales (in part thanks to the good HD DVD player sales numbers recently) are now neck and neck.

So much for Blu-ray's 10:1 + player advantage.

Originally posted by vinny13:

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And the Hairy Potter thing, I don't know why you would look at those sales because that was the worst one to date.

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- Yeah, sure, course you don't.

It's the same deal as was with the 300.

An easy like-for-like comparison and Blu-ray flunks it everytime.

What's the betting this new Harry Potter movie doesn't even rack up a Blu-ray 2:1 advantage?

2:1 when you have a 10:1+ advantage in players isn't impressing anyone.

That's the kind of thing Warner are looking at and at every point Blu-ray has underwhelmed.

PS3 guaranteed a short-term boost for Blu-ray (how could it not?).
The only question was how much of a boost.

Well here we are, one year in and analyst group after analyst group are all backing away from their original projections that Blu-ray would easily win this little war.

......and if head Blu-ray BS'er Stringer is prepared to publicly say he sees stalemate (even if he did try and back out & retract what he said) you can bet Sony know the reality is even worse for them.

What the **** do analysts know that we don't? The answer is nothing! They just get paid for making stupid guesses.

hughjars: Your scenario sounds interesting but there are a few things that have to come together before this can happen.

First off the Nielsen Black Friday numbers were not about regular DVD versus HDM. It was about BluRay (72) vs HD DVD (28). No one really cared about how HDM fared vs regular DVD. All the news and buzz was about the HD DVD vs BluRay numbers.

Secondly, your scenario assumes that the entire DVD player market will be taken over by cheap Chinese brand HD DVD players like Venturer and Funai. I just don't see that happening with the better-known Japanese and Korean brands still in play. Toshiba most certainly wouldn't want the cheap Chinese brands to cut into its market share would it?

Thirdly, the segment of the market that can afford only the cheaper players will likely be "HD-indifferent" or "HD-ignorant." They'll be part of the majority that still don't have HDTV's in their homes and "high-def media" and "upconverting players" are meaningless phrases to them. They most certainly won't buy HDM at current prices.

I myself would like to see the Twin format take off but until I see them working well in most if not all players I'm postponing judgement. I've had my share of combo format problems.

Come on U.K. I thought you blokes were smarter than that. Actually predicting this? Pull your heads outta your arses! NOW! PLEASE!? For the third time;



I'll pass my thought on here...............This is Harry's law! This is absolutely how it's going to be.

THERE WILL BE NO VICTOR BETWEEN BLU-RAY AND HD-DVD PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!

This WILL NOT be a repeat of the betamax, VHS crap. Boys and girls, we are stuck with two (2) formats. Count'em up; 1,2 There has been too much invested in each and too many videos already produced on each for there to wind up only being one (1). Anyone who believes that Sony will honestly stop producing on their own Blu-ray format that THEY INVENTED and start putting Sony-produced flicks out on HD-DVD is a fool. I used to believe that one would become prevalent but since have change my realistic thoughts on that.

Here's the answer to all the questions.............DUAL FORMAT PLAYERS WILL BE THE STANDARD. It's already started and will continue and drastically reduce in price somewhere down the line. If you don't like the idea of waiting then the option of buying two (2) players is the next best solution. BD for 300.00 bucks and HD-DVD for 300.00 (unless you find another Walmart deal for 100.00)

DONE!

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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hughjars: Your scenario sounds interesting but there are a few things that have to come together before this can happen.

First off the Nielsen Black Friday numbers were not about regular DVD versus HDM. It was about BluRay (72) vs HD DVD (28).

Secondly, your scenario assumes that the entire DVD player market will be taken over by cheap Chinese brand HD DVD players like Venturer and Funai. I just don't see that happening with the better-known Japanese and Korean brands still in play. Toshiba most certainly wouldn't want the cheap Chinese brands to cut into its market share would it?

Thirdly, the segment of the market that can afford only the cheaper players will likely be "HD-indifferent" or "HD-ignorant." They'll be part of the majority that still don't have HDTV's in their homes and "high-def media" and "upconverting players" are meaningless phrases to them. They most certainly won't buy HDM at current prices.

I myself would like to see the Twin format take off but until I see them working well in most if not all players I'm postponing judgement. I've had my share of combo format problems.

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Great Post as always i couldn't agree more.

Yes there can be a victory . Warner Bros goes exclusive to HD DVD !

Originally posted by mattkind:

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Yes there can be a victory . Warner Bros goes exclusive to HD DVD !

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Warner going to HD-DVD will only drag out this format War even farther.I think Warner going to make a move because they dropped the Total HD disc after working tirelessly on it.If the go BD which is very possible then BD will more than likely win which mean format war over & one HD format on the market mean they can focus on over taking DVD which is going to take sometime & alot of educating the consumers.


It took DVD one year to sell one million DVD's.The HD market surpass that in 5 months.

But in my opinion , if Warner decides to go HD DVD exclusive which i think its best for them , HD DVD will win because the major studios will release there movies on HD DVD...UNIVERSAL , PARAMOUNT , DREAMWORKS and Warner. On the other side only FOX & Disney will release on Blu-ray . Of course im talking about the major studios

DOUBLE POST.

Originally posted by mattkind:

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But in my opinion , if Warner decides to go HD DVD exclusive which i think its best for them , HD DVD will win because the major studios will release there movies on HD DVD...UNIVERSAL , PARAMOUNT , DREAMWORKS and Warner. On the other side only FOX & Disney will release on Blu-ray . Of course im talking about the major studios

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But BD will still have Lion Gate,MGM,Sony & Disney see what im saying this would make it even more confusing & prolong this war even more.Plus Fox hate HD-DVD with a passion because HD-DVD don't have BD+ which is the reason they choose BD.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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First off the Nielsen Black Friday numbers were not about regular DVD versus HDM.

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- I beg to differ.

Just cos some people have their eyes 100% on high def does not render the other comparison invalid.

The fact remains that regular DVD (media & players) outsold both high def formats by a huge margin.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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Secondly, your scenario assumes that the entire DVD player market will be taken over by cheap Chinese brand HD DVD players like Venturer and Funai. I just don't see that happening with the better-known Japanese and Korean brands still in play.

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- I'm not saying the "better known Japanese and Korean brands" will vanish.

I do fully expect those Chinese manufacturers (who afterall are in large part the same people) to drop their 'regular DVD' production in favour of those nice quality sub $100 upscaling DVD players that happen to also play HD DVD very nicely.

Whilst that isn;t everyone those same Chinese manufacturers make up a huge chunk of the 'regular DVD' market.
I think they are months away from making a huge impact on this.

I think plenty of people in the industry know this is what is coming too, hence the back-tracking of so much opinion about this 'war'
(and even Stringer's stalemate comments)

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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Toshiba most certainly wouldn't want the cheap Chinese brands to cut into its market share would it?

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- I wouldn't be so sure.
Toshiba are the main licence holder and those coming Chinese players all use the Toshiba HD A3 as their 'reference design'.

Did you know that in Europe & the UK Toshiba are not bringing in the Euro version of the HD A3 (the HD EP3)?

The field is being left clear for those Chinese players to take over the entry level entirely
(and things like the 2 HD DVD movies in the box & 5 HD DVD movie mail-in offer is being extended to Venturer, and presumably the others if they arrive whilst the offer(s) are still on-going).

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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Thirdly, the segment of the market that can afford only the cheaper players will likely be "HD-indifferent" or "HD-ignorant."

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- I think this is merely to wake up & recognise reality.

These is no plausible scenario of future consumer behaviour that would not have SD DVDs still being bought and sold for a long time, no matter what.

Things will only begin to radically change as the Twin discs take over.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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They most certainly won't buy HDM at current prices.

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- Well I agree in the short-term that HD DVD prices are too high (it's just the usual skimming off an early adopter premium, happens all the time with almost every new product) but they have at least started to trim prices.

With volume Twin production blurring all SD & HD DVD distinctions we ought to see prices decline dramatically.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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I myself would like to see the Twin format take off but until I see them working well in most if not all players I'm postponing judgement.

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- In my HD EP35 (the Euro version of the HD A35) manual they are already in as a version of disc I can use without any great problems (which I thought was quick).

I don't doubt the occasional problem (perhaps) but then every emerging tech has that.

Originally posted by eatsushi:

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I've had my share of combo format problems.

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- You wouldn't be alone, nevertheless that's just a reality that goes with the new territory.
But it looks like combo is on the way out and Twin is the one that will be backed very seriously.

Blu-ray is using it in the ps3 to get into peoples homes, if you cant see that your a complete moron. Doesnt mean everyone who bought a ps3 is using it for only that purpose...Seems like morons from here think thats the only purpose and count every single one to justify why hd-dvd sucks so bad in sales.

Looking at the sales of actual software when only 160,000 copies are being sold of the biggest blockbuster record is set it is obvious that not everyone uses it as there format of choice and is far from being standard.

When you have a price point of $100 per player compared to $300-$600 and you cant beat them in sales you obviously suck and thats is super unimpressive and embarrassing to anyone involved in the company or supporters.

Guess when your $100 players arnt even 1080p and the new dvd combo disk apparently freeze midway through and suck what can you do really, $30+ movies on a $100 player i dont think so if your that much of a cheap ass your not going to spend $30+ a movie your looking for cheap as possible.

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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Blu-ray is using it in the ps3 to get into peoples homes

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- Wow, d'ya think?

Stop the presses. *rolls eyes*

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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if you cant see that your a complete moron.

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- Oh look, imagine my surprise, yet another newbie account to try and bore us all to death by slamming anything and anyone who doesn't go with the 'PS3/Blu-ray/Sony is God' theme.

Respective debating style, not.

It's just such a pity that you rather purile fanboy bile really isn't matched (at all) by the slightest amount of literary style, eh?

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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Doesnt mean everyone who bought a ps3 is using it for only that purpose...Seems like morons from here think thats the only purpose and count every single one to justify why hd-dvd sucks so bad in sales.

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- No.

You can either have it one of 2 ways.

Either you count all the PS3s as Blu-ray players
(which I favour as the potential at least is there)
in which case the Blu-ray movie attachment rates are shown up to be totally laughable - and everybody knows it.

or

You don't count PS3s as Blu-ray players in which case the pitifully tiny number of Blu-ray standalones is revealed showing the format to be laughably and utterly reliant on the game console - and everybody knows it.

You choose.

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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Looking at the sales of actual software when only 160,000 copies are being sold of the biggest blockbuster record is set it is obvious that not everyone uses it as there format of choice and is far from being standard.

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- Hmmmm, well that's not exactly the most coherent sentence I have ever seen.

But if I am deciphering it correctly then wow, for stating the bleeding obvious
(not all PS3 owners use their PS3s to watch Blu-ray movies)
that is right on the money.

Good for you.

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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When you have a price point of $100 per player compared to $300-$600 and you cant beat them in sales you obviously suck

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- Jeez such incredible logic.

Of course the fact that Blu-ray have so heavily piggy-backed on a Playstation game console that was always bound to sell in the several millions (even if it is a flop in it's own market) is neither here nor there to you, eh?

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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and thats is super unimpressive and embarrassing to anyone involved in the company or supporters.

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- Nope, that's what's called laughably flawed and rather childish logic, actually.

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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Guess when your $100 players arnt even 1080p

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- So what?

Most HD TVs the whole world over (by far) are not 1080p.

Why should those people be forced into buying kit with a spec they do not need and cannot use?
(that seems to be a Sony theme tho, eh?)

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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and the new dvd combo disk apparently freeze midway through

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- Which "new combo" disc are you referring to?

If you're trying to have a dig at the new Twin discs they aren't even out yet
(and the clue is in the name, they're not combo discs they're Twin discs).

So if it is the Twin discs you're referring to then you're just making stuff up again, eh?

I guess you're with the other liars in this and going to pretend that it's only HD DVD discs that had ever had a problem.

*cough* disc rot *cough*

LMAO

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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$30+ movies

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- You must be really going out of your way to find HD DVDs at $30.

I just looked at Amazon USA, the 1st page alone is full of single discs between $12.50 for a couple, several at $19.99 and a few at $24.95.

Funnily enough if I do the same thing on Blu-ray I find prices starting at $13.50 for a couple, and most of the rest at $23.95.

Originally posted by Tecbot:

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on a $100 player i dont think so if your that much of a cheap ass your not going to spend $30+ a movie your looking for cheap as possible.

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- It's exactly that kind of sneering pompous attitude that does the Blu-ray gang no good at all.

You might not care to admit it but like I said, 'ordinary' (and cheaper) DVD outsold high def by a mile this holiday in the USA.
That's what the public are spending their money on.

HD DVD will get down to those levels long before Blu-ray gets the chance, and that's why HD DVD are going to win this.

Deny it all you like but the truth is the best outcome the Sony gang are now predicting is a stalemate, not the easy win they originally promised their backers and fans
(which, incidentally, will have other implications later on for the various Blu-ray investors).

Other people in the industry are now wondering seriously if the underdog is going to win.

So the journey is almost complete.
We've gone from easy Blu-ray win
to stalemate
to 'one-side-is-going-to-win-but-we're-too-chickensh!t-to-admit-we-were-all-wrong-at-the-start-and-come-out-and-say-HD DVD-yet'.

Give it time.

What you can be sure of is that no-one is promising an easy Blu-ray win like they once used to......that alone ought to be giving the fanboy element pause for thought.

You fail.

Too easy.

I predict it will be blue-ray or HD-DVD that will win..lmao.. who the frag are these dickhead anal-lysts,& how do i get a job wif em..lol..

HDdvd is almost dead. The whole year of 2007 was dominated by blu-ray in video software sales for high definition media. And recently its been close or at a 3-to-1 sales ratio.

Blu-ray player prices are coming down. And despite their higher costs they still sell more than the cheaper hddvd players. And to discredit the PS3 is simply moronic. The PS3 is the top selling blu-ray player and is a big reason why Blu-ray has won the entire year in software sales. Game players watch movies also. They are not playing games 24/7 (- sleep)

eatsushi interesting and very good insight...

Originally posted by hughjars:

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We already saw the Black Friday numbers,
Regular DVD beat the pants off of both high def formats.

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since you keep brining this up i will ask you to please read and reread that! what is that telling you? now that i have enlightened you, im sure you'll agree that the MAJORITY of AMERICANS don't own an HDTV nor do they appear to have any desire in buying HD movies. why would anyone who is struggling in society or even middleclass want to really go out and pay 4X the $$amount for a movie? because it is HD? i think not. Most Americans when polled dont even know the correct number of States in the US. and you think they have any idea about HD-DVD, Blu-ray or even HD in general? ha. this market hasnt' even begun to break any ground in the mainstream A/V market. and it won't for some time and yes, that is even with factoring in your Chinese players. whenever they come. lets just hope for your sake its before Warners junction with Blu-ray ;)

since were on the subject:

Originally posted by hughjars:

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Well gee, I dunno.....but perhaps.....

......do you think it might possibly be that as good quality inexpensive Chinese upscaling DVD players
(that also happen to play HD DVD very nicely)
take over that 'regular' DVD market
and
that as those 'regular' DVD players disappear to be replaced by those coming brands
(that are good quality inexpensive upscaling DVD players that also happen to play HD DVD very nicely)
might have some bearing on this?

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well for one you have no evidence only wishful thinking that these "quality" players are coming. HA. yes i just laughed at you "quality" players are you kidding me? yes the chinese players will hit the market sometime, but im arguing the quality part, don't get confused. remember that saying you get what you pay for!? should i be so bold and ask where your coming up with this info of "quality" players. good thing its not a childs toy otherwise...well you know the drill. quality products over in the china...hmmmm prices are cut or low for a reason.

if you truly feel this way, with such a low pricepoint (100$) and "good quality," they would basically knock all competition out of the water. consumers would surely only buy the inexpensive "quality/very nicely" players, i mean why pay another $50-100/200/300$ for a player that is only just as good or slightly better? so really toshiba a major player here would basically lose their entire standalone market. currently the HD-A35 is listed for $499 at BB,CC and on Amazon for $299. the HD-A30 is listed for $399 and on Amazon is $232.10 and the HD-A3 lists for $299 and sells on Amazon for $199.98. talk about one major fu pricecut. yea but they back HD-DVD so either way they win right? umm no, but A for effort. you really thought this through, i can tell. btw, im an economics grad and sorry but in Modern Industry and relative theory, your logic does not hold one bit. there is no way toshiba would be able to compete. the internal market pressure would force them to exit the market altogether. which i mentioned before but you failed to acknowledge that back when. i believe it was my "rambling" as you termed it...

on to the next part. well lets go with your logic and say people buy up these players. which you then argue will upscale their DVDs quite nicely (SURE)and play HD-DVDs but what you fail to say and realize is, NO ONE WILL BE BUYING HD-DVDS! so wtf difference does it make? if they upscale and make DVD players obsolete, what effect does that have on the HD-DVD movie market? NONE! no one is going to shell out another $10+ on a movie that as you say will already be upscaled pretty well. oh yeah plus the rhetorical fact that the MAJORITY of Americans don't own HDTVs so who gives a poop. sorry charlie brown but better luck next time :-0 good to know dvdback has your back because its obviously apparent that your HD-DVD diploma does you no good in any other aspect of life and business. but hey you are well informed ;) ha! man i hope for you health HD-DVD wins, yeah i said it otherwise i think your in for a long period of the double Ds. no not those, but actually denial and depression

i believe the blackfriday clip on AD was primarily focused around sales in conjunction with rock bottom prices of DVDs for fairly recent releases. price is everything, and price of the content is what matters most. Since your the hardcore HD-DVD advocate, You seriously better hope the blu-ray camp doesn't drop their movie prices because it'll make all your standalone sales meaningless. movies(content) will always sell players, (wonder how many bought hd-dvd just for Transformers. a minority sure, but still another sale) but players won't always sell content.

i wonder if the 10 HD-DVD freebies are counted in overall sales? interesting if they are, could that be the shot in the arm they need. oh no, but but but Blu-ray has been doing this with their promotions. ummm, i think they did it once where you could combine an existing offer but that was for a select player, the HD-DVD offer is for all toshiba players. a pretty good deal. say $20 a movie x 10. $200+ dollars worth of movies. surely the studios will be aware of this though, so little difference it'll make in the longrun from the inflated sales. guess neither side is any better than the other, oh but wait the HD-DVD group has yet to come out and make any bold statements. Wonder why? may be its because they have nothing to say??? "hey guys were going to knock Blu-ray out, yeah thats right we'll knock'm out because we can't even win a single week of sales." wtf do you expect them to say or i guess not say? ha. since when was being cocky and confident such a bad thing anyway? but but but they hurt our feelings...

actually i did breakdown the numbers and only around 9% of the total DVD market bought pirates3 in that first week. i actually would argue that that figure is probably lower since the percentage of dvd players in homes was from 2005 (i think) and im sure that number has increased. not to mention the arugment i brought up about people owning multiple players (roommates,siblings). Roughly 6% of blu-ray owners bought pirates3 by the way, in case you were wondering. oh yeah i could also argue that it is XMAS time and not everyone has an extra $20-$30 to spend on themselves. but no one thinks that way.

Pity when compared to sales? well naturally when you have some 90MILLION households with dvd players compared to 3million blu-ray players. but the percentages say otherwise, wouldnt you agree?

what is all this really telling us? think outside the box...

digital cable movie channels galore, MOVIES ON DEMAND blockbuser/netflix, payperview, DVR, pc's used as DVR, etc. are all factors that inhibit sales of movies.

im sure some think why would i buy a movie that i'll watch 4 times if that, when i can simply DVR it and watch it whenever i want, as much as i want...

i don't have actual numbers but i think movie sales are declining in general. its just that there is such a large volume of consumers nowadays people don't realize this or may be its not clear. i could be wrong, but i doubt it ;) oh no im cocky and arrogant too. guess i won't be liked. ha

who pay these people? Useless predictions...

Well usual rambling nonsense as per hade but to pick up your most obvious glaring fanboy dig....

Originally posted by hade:

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well for one you have no evidence only wishful thinking that these "quality" players are coming. HA. yes i just laughed at you "quality" players are you kidding me?

---

- We know those coming Chinese players are decent quality.

How come?

Because they are basically a Toshiba HD A3.

They have been stripped down and checked over, sorry that it obviously sticks in your throats but they are nice units, actually.

Obviously you're another one who can't get your head around the whole business of licenced manufacture and contract component manufacture.

Open you PS3 or Blu-ray standalone (if you're one of the few with one), it's full of made in China parts.

So I guess it's a case of "quality products over in the china...hmmmm prices are cut or low for a reason"

Low quality PS3s & Blu-ray players then, huh?

LMAO.

The rest is just more adolescent fanboy ravings with no understanding of market entry levels and a proper spread of product spec & price.

Clearly like the rest of the Blu-ray/PS3 fanclub you've missed the various analysts backing away from their initial 'Blu-ray is going to win easily' assessments to ones of stalemate.

Even head Sony Blu-ray BS'er Stringer said (even if he did try and back-track later) that he only sees stalemate
(and if he's prepared to say that much in public you can bet it's much worse).

Boy are you guys in for a shock soon. :P

Originally posted by josetjr:

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HDdvd is almost dead. The whole year of 2007 was dominated by blu-ray in video software sales for high definition media. And recently its been close or at a 3-to-1 sales ratio.

Blu-ray player prices are coming down. And despite their higher costs they still sell more than the cheaper hddvd players. And to discredit the PS3 is simply moronic. The PS3 is the top selling blu-ray player and is a big reason why Blu-ray has won the entire year in software sales. Game players watch movies also. They are not playing games 24/7 (- sleep)

---

This is about the stupidest and most meritless statement I've ever heard. This goes to show that the average person on the face of this planet has abandoned all rationale and reasoning as well as common sense.

Yeah right............for all those who think that by simply having ONE FRAKKIN' COMPANY LIKE WARNER TO SWITCH A FORMATE CHOICE, then "oh, sure, right, Sony will pack up their technology and close the doors to production and ditch all the new advances they have invested in with a substantial innovation like Blu-ray." GIVE ME A GD BREAK! Use your head people. NOT THE F'en SAME AS BETA, VHS. There are just so many ostriches with their heads in the sand who can't empathize with the 'business and practical implementation' point of view.

Dammit Hade.............TOO LONG A POST. Got bored half way through the rambling.

HD movies WILL SELL EVENTUALLY and bump regular DVD out. It's the natural evolution of technology. Many peeps truly want HD movies and exactly HOW DID YOU PULL THIS OUTTA YOUR ARSE.........

"why would anyone who is struggling in society or even middleclass want to really go out and pay 4X the $$amount for a movie?"

4X?? 4X?? What?? Yeah, if you're honestly basing the DVD price on Blockbuster's discount rack of movies no one has ever heard of much less watch. News flash amigo, new release DVDs are still out at Bestbuy for 14.99 for the first week then back up to 19.99 or 21.99 shortly thereafter. 4X my foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How the battle will be worked out is by the ratio of hi-def media sold compared to the amount of players in peoples homes.

this report is complete bull crap because DVD is not going anywhere soon and next gen offers very little over current DVD's.

Pretending HD DVDs are really expensive ($30+) is just a regular Blu-ray fanboy lie.

This is the truth -

Go to Amazon USA.
Look for HD DVD with their search.
The 1st page alone is full of single HD DVD discs between $12.50 for a couple, several at $19.99 and a few at $24.95.

Then do the same thing on Blu-ray and you'll find prices starting at $13.50 for a couple, and most of the rest at $23.95.

The Blu-ray fanboys are the last to 'get' this.

Everyone else has walked away from predicting an easy Blu-ray victory long ago.

Even the head Blu-ray BS'er Howard Stringer has walked away from the fanboy stupidity & has said he only sees a stalemate.

Only the Blu-ray fanboys are left now preaching (to themselves) about an imminent Blu win.

LMAO.

Originally posted by hughjars:

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Pretending HD DVDs are really expensive ($30+) is just a regular Blu-ray fanboy lie.

This is the truth -

Go to Amazon USA.
Look for HD DVD with their search.
The 1st page alone is full of single HD DVD discs between $12.50 for a couple, several at $19.99 and a few at $24.95.

Then do the same thing on Blu-ray and you'll find prices starting at $13.50 for a couple, and most of the rest at $23.95.

The Blu-ray fanboys are the last to 'get' this.

Everyone else has walked away from predicting an easy Blu-ray victory long ago.

Even the head Blu-ray BS'er Howard Stringer has walked away from the fanboy stupidity & has said he only sees a stalemate.

Only the Blu-ray fanboys are left now preaching (to themselves) about an imminent Blu win.

LMAO.

---

the thing you failed to mention there is that Blu-Ray is region locked and the DRM in blu-ray players will not allow any region code hacks to run as they will just shut down via the DRM on blu-ray discs at the request of the MPAA so global price fixing can continue, but HD-DVD can play any film from any country!

Why has no one mentioned one thing.

The early format war of the 1980's was beta and vhs but one thing stood in the way of sony and there all mighty better quality beta.

The Porn industry but I know it's on the internet mostly now but still you have too admit there is still alot of porn dvd's out there if the porn industry get too use one of the HD formats and if sony wants too win they are going too have too let them use BD too win.

If not and they use HD then they will win.

But I see it this way like someone said most of us don't have HD TV's yet so that means there will have too be a big push and I know best buy already is only selly the HD tv.

I think people want quality more then qauntity now more then when they choose the vhs that was qauntity.

I know some of my ranting doesn't make since but oh well wehn the price is right and the BD is the winner and the PS3 is cheaper then I will be happy.

But I am satisfied with regular DVD's now.

Anyway I would love too see BD win more space so that means if they are smart they will be able too put a whole season of a tv show on 1 BD instead of 6 regular if I am right.

Originally posted by nobrainer:

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How the battle will be worked out is by the ratio of hi-def media sold compared to the amount of players in peoples homes.

this report is complete bull crap because DVD is not going anywhere soon and next gen offers very little over current DVD's.

---

AGREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Both formats are here to stay folks...........I'd bet my life on it. Besides, it's just sensible so I can understand why so many think only 1 will prevail. Kinda like conversing with a brick wall.

I Just can't understand why people don't see that. Ain't like manufacturers have to spindle on a reel of tape for both formats and make VCRs that can switch (mechanically) over from one to another. Just another chip in the box. Whatever, this issue is dead and so are the mentalities debating for a single format.

Originally posted by tester22:

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News flash amigo, new release DVDs are still out at Bestbuy for 14.99 for the first week then back up to 19.99 or 21.99 shortly thereafter. 4X my foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

---

where in my post did i say or even mention new releases? so i guess those who buy hd-dvd players are only in the market for the new releases from the point they bought the player and so on. so like i said most will wonder why pay $19.99 or $24.95 or even $27.95 for a movie when you can still pick it up for $9.99, $5.99 or w/e the going rate is at the walmart bin. so yes there are GOOD movies that are 2x,3x,4x cheaper. i didn't say or imply every movie, did i?

Originally posted by tester22:

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HD movies WILL SELL EVENTUALLY and bump regular DVD out. It's the natural evolution of technology. Many peeps truly want HD movies and exactly HOW DID YOU PULL THIS OUTTA YOUR ARSE........

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will eventually sell, natural evolution, how long do you suppose that is going to take? some on here think and for good reason that DVD isn't really going anywhere anytime soon.

we'll be bold and say there are 1MILLION HD-DVD players in the US. 111,400,000 households in the US leads us to a consumer acceptance rate of .0089... NOT EVEN 1% of the general public has adopted into this HD era. but yeah "many peeps" want HD. should i ask how you pulled that statement out of your arse? here at Afterdawn the HD-DVD monkey position is already filled, not sure where your going to fit in or want to fit in at.

as usual hughjars is unable to make any argument what so ever, probably confused and unable to understand the illustrated points and theory. similar to his unwillingness to respond in other threads. im sure your wondering which, so i'll bring up the one where eatsushi was so kind to present "disc replication" costs for hd-dvd and blu-ray, which of course nullified your argument of higher production costs and thus kept your fingers quiet. this is evident here, really, i'll show you.

you fail to mention the argument on percentages of movie sales, HD-DVD current prices with respect to the upcoming cheap alternatives, and the argument that the chinese players who upscale won't affect HD-DVD in a positive way....may be your still trying to figure it out. don't worry im not going anywhere

Originally posted by hughjars:

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We know those coming Chinese players are decent quality.

How come?

Because they are basically a Toshiba HD A3.

They have been stripped down and checked over, sorry that it obviously sticks in your throats but they are nice units, actually.

Obviously you're another one who can't get your head around the whole business of licenced manufacture and contract component manufacture.

---

oh god, for once please take off your HD-DVD badge and think like a rational person. if you want to believe all your "rambling" then FINE. believe it. BUT, i am telling you something so listen....if these chinese players are "IDENTICAL" in every aspect right down to the individual components, then at $100 pricetag that YOU, YOURSELF keep insisting on, it will COMPLETELY ELIMINATE the market for current/future toshiba A-3 players. considering the pricetags of the other toshiba players that i listed above, i see this as detrimental to toshiba's standalone market stance. how would you feel if Honda handed over the Blueprints to FORD for the Accord? how long do you think it would be till FORD ruined the reputation of the Accord? Why do you think that would happen? Lowering transaction costs, manufacturing costs, reduce quality of components, focusing on increasing profits rather than quality and the list goes on. Just because you have the breakdown or replicate a certain good doesn't mean it'll perform with the same quality, especially when the listed price is $200 cheaper. its priced cheaper for a reason and unfortunately economies of scale don't come to play yet. so again as i said before with these cheaper prices Toshiba would have to cut production to stay competitive to help minimize losses. they could also develop another standalone but that also costs $$$$, so don't be too surprised given this scenario when toshiba exits the market all together.

Originally posted by hughjars:

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Open you PS3 or Blu-ray standalone (if you're one of the few with one), it's full of made in China parts.

So I guess it's a case of "quality products over in the china...hmmmm prices are cut or low for a reason"

Low quality PS3s & Blu-ray players then, huh?

LMAO.

---

actually considering the number of blu-ray players on the market i'd say there is a greater probability that i actually own a blu-ray player, now wouldn't there be? 3Million blu-rays to 1Million HD-DVDs....yeah and yes i do own a launch ps3, thanks for wondering though.

so again you fail miserably trying to put my words in my mouth with your lameass analogy. yes you do get what you pay for, so considering the pricepoint i paid ($599) parts made or not manufactured in China, given my LOGIC, would only IMPLY that Those Parts are of HIGHER QUALITY than that of say your "HD-A3" chinese duplicate. seriously please don't try and nitpick my posts for flaws that you think you can capitalize on. im not 14 or uneducated, so keep to picking on the other folks whose posts you enjoy ripping to end. probably makes you feel good, boy does that HD-DVD badge shine.

also no where in my post did i say parts manufactured in china are inferior, but i did imply that a conceptual copy of a product that is expected (according to YOU) to be priced at $100 as opposed to its predecessor price of $299, surely must have inferior components or quality.

on topic: the reason why Warner is a big player but not necessarily the ultimate player is that w/e side they choose, it'll open the doors for greater consumer acceptance into this new market. something we have yet to see. if they side blu-ray expect the format struggle to end within a year. too much studio support. if its hd-dvd expect the two formats to continue for atleast 2 years before it becomes solely hd-dvd as long as their is the domino effect of disney/fox/lionsgate etc to follow suit. "many peeps" i probably should have stopped reading there. certainly i expect you to get bored of my posts, its probably above you anyhow. "many peeps" still can't get over that one, AD always good for laughs.

when i can't get my shat on DVD format then i will go to the nextformat. when that happen, we'll truly know who wins the format war. so blu-ray and HD-DVD can kiss my arse till that happens

came in late, but anyway the format war wont end until someone gives up and that wont happen for another 2-5 years.

@ hade

please check your quotes as the only one i made is:

Originally posted by nobrainer:

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How the battle will be worked out is by the ratio of hi-def media sold compared to the amount of players in peoples homes.

this report is complete bull crap because DVD is not going anywhere soon and next gen offers very little over current DVD's.

---

so at the moment there is in excess of 6 1/2 million blu ray players and around 1 million hd-dvd players so if the lead is 3 to 1 in favour of blu-ray the ratio proves that more hd-dvd owners are purchasing films than blu-ray owners, get the point?


do your parents and grandparents really care about a few extra pixels, other than the "keeping up with the jone's" types!


imho, i dont want and will never buy into sony's MPAA format becoming the format of choice, as who wants them anti consumer companies having the strangle hold over the hardware as well as the software!

you already have the global price fixing region codes on blu-ray and BD+ DRM that enables studios to run any code they wish on YOUR hardware to stop the apparent piracy which is damaging the industry regardless that every fiscal year profits are on the increase, but it gives sony and co reason to make more DRM are get paid from all directions.

I'm sure the sony bloggers will be here or face the sack to discredit my comments,,, cue nextgen!

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/04/02/compulsory_blogging/

Originally posted by fta:

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We've all heard about employees being sacked for blogging. But as the fad begins to wane, will staff soon be sacked for failing to blog?

Last week, Sony BMG UK issued a new corporate marketing strategy.

According to an official release from the group, Ged Doherty, chairman and chief executive of SonyBMG in UK and Ireland, said the company "has made it obligatory for all senior staff at both Columbia Records and RCA Records to start blogging actively".

---

my bad nobrainer, only saw the newbie part and mixed the names up. did it to elfman too not too long ago, don't take it personal post edited. if something is still goofed on my end let me know.

Ya chinese no names are garbage compared to chinese name brands...

I don't think I really have to explain this...

I did say EVENTUALLY! I'm guessing standard DVD (and hoping) will sell strong for at least another 4 years and maintain for another 10.

Originally posted by tester22:

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I did say EVENTUALLY! I'm guessing standard DVD (and hoping) will sell strong for at least another 4 years and maintain for another 10.

---

ya DVDs are not going anywhere for another 6-10.

Originally posted by nobrainer:

---

I'm sure the sony bloggers will be here or face the sack to discredit my comments,,, cue nextgen!

---

Sack what im to the point i don't even read your post anymore because you always have the same things in it...DRM,I hate Sony,& Anti consumer.Copy protection & DRM is the lease thing im worried about.I worried about Global terrorisms & The Patriot Act bill.Those are things i see that are really effecting people even day of life not that BS that got you hiding in a cave.Like i told you before if you don't like DRM or copy protection don't buy the product.But don't bash a company for protecting there best interest, even if it is money.




Back on topic:

The numbers has been leaked for last week & Blu-Ray has out sold HD-DVD yet again with no major exclsive title to take on The Bourne Ultimatum.Looks like HD-DVD not going to win a single week over BD thats strong going into CES08 next month.


61%BD to 39%HD.

This whole Format war is funny to me. I know people who already bought ps3 are hoping blu ray will be victorious. Yet with me and other average people on the street see it this way: Everyone I have talked to like the hi def look, it's clear, great picture, and awesome resolution. In reality though the economy isn't doing to great and people don't want to spend 300$ or more on a player that might not play new movies in the future. Of course there are alot of sales, but MOST people are just waiting it out. My uncle said it best when he said: until I can buy a 25 disc spindle of hd-dvds or blue ray discs for 30$ and start burning all my home vids and pictures on it....I'll pass.

There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

Pip

Originally posted by pippincp:

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There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

Pip

---

BTW The betamax v VHS war was not decided with porn if you think that you hsve a very SAD life!

Quote:

---

Originally posted by pippincp:

---

There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

Pip

---

BTW The betamax v VHS war was not decided with porn if you think that you hsve a very SAD life!

---

lol

Quote:

---

Originally posted by pippincp:

---

There is only ONE thing in the war between the differing formats - THE GULLABILITY of the consumer, personally I'm willing to wait for a few YEARS until it's sorted. The price will be cheaper for the format that is decided upon. Remember Betamax and VHS. I aint no idiot and don't need any Corporation telling me what I should have!

Pip

---

BTW The betamax v VHS war was not decided with porn if you think that you hsve a very SAD life!

---

No but it helped the over all outcome.
Also the main diffrance between now and then is technological growth and starting of as a sub format before moving to main format replacement, BR and or HDVD could easily be replaced in the next 8 years.

Originally posted by scorpNZ:

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I predict it will be blue-ray or HD-DVD that will win..lmao.. who the frag are these dickhead anal-lysts,& how do i get a job wif em..lol..

---

You miss the point of the statement. It doesn't say that there are any other choices. It says that the public will have chosen one or the other next year.

I think these people have way too much time on thier hands. I think i wont predict anything and just wait till the war is over. Then i will look around for a good deal on whats left.

I am sick of continuasly hearing about the stupid format war. I just want to come out and re-state that I am more than certain that NEITHER format is EVER going to "win" this "format war" all of these supposed professionals are retarded. No one reading this even knows what im talking about probably, but i feel the need to voice my opinion, and at least two years from now i can read this and laugh about all these professionals being wrong. This is the same supposed "format war" that happened between DVD+R/-R, look what happened. I am so confident in my prediction of multiformat HD players dominating (ones that play Blu-Ray AND hd-dvd), that i am willing to put $200 on it. If ever one format wins and the other stops selling I will give $200 to the person who holds me to it. ANYBODY

Originally posted by smcrzyguy:

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I am sick of continuasly hearing about the stupid format war. I just want to come out and re-state that I am more than certain that NEITHER format is EVER going to "win" this "format war" all of these supposed professionals are retarded. No one reading this even knows what im talking about probably, but i feel the need to voice my opinion, and at least two years from now i can read this and laugh about all these professionals being wrong. This is the same supposed "format war" that happened between DVD+R/-R, look what happened. I am so confident in my prediction of multiformat HD players dominating (ones that play Blu-Ray AND hd-dvd), that i am willing to put $200 on it. If ever one format wins and the other stops selling I will give $200 to the person who holds me to it. ANYBODY

---

+ and - are not totally separate formats like BR and HDVD are, alo most likely one will win the current Hdef war but something else will probably come along to replace DVD.

Quote:

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Originally posted by smcrzyguy:

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I am sick of continuasly hearing about the stupid format war. I just want to come out and re-state that I am more than certain that NEITHER format is EVER going to "win" this "format war" all of these supposed professionals are retarded. No one reading this even knows what im talking about probably, but i feel the need to voice my opinion, and at least two years from now i can read this and laugh about all these professionals being wrong. This is the same supposed "format war" that happened between DVD+R/-R, look what happened. I am so confident in my prediction of multiformat HD players dominating (ones that play Blu-Ray AND hd-dvd), that i am willing to put $200 on it. If ever one format wins and the other stops selling I will give $200 to the person who holds me to it. ANYBODY

---

+ and - are not totally separate formats like BR and HDVD are, alo most likely one will win the current Hdef war but something else will probably come along to replace DVD.

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They are completely separate formats, but they are the same size, and are ultimately read the same way. And there are already players that play both formats with all of the features of each. The fact is that there are studios who are on one side and some have switched at some point without intent to ever switch back. if consumers have a player that plays both, they will not care which format it is and they will buy movies according to whichever movie studio distributes the film. SO in the end people will always buy BOTH formats and movie studios will produce on whichever format they prefer (Blu-Ray or HD-DVD- until another format comes out, which will at some point happen).

No but it helped the over all outcome.
Also the main diffrance between now and then is technological growth and starting of as a sub format before moving to main format replacement, BR and or HDVD could easily be replaced in the next 8 years.

---

You know what thank you for that I forgot about formats like this. Hey guys do you think while this format is going on a newformat might emerge
in the next couple years. I mean the guys right any one of theese could evnd up becoming a flop. REMEMBER LAZERDISC???????

I'll believe it when i see it :)

Originally posted by Shegax:

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No but it helped the over all outcome.
Also the main diffrance between now and then is technological growth and starting of as a sub format before moving to main format replacement, BR and or HDVD could easily be replaced in the next 8 years.

---

You know what thank you for that I forgot about formats like this. Hey guys do you think while this format is going on a newformat might emerge
in the next couple years. I mean the guys right any one of theese could evnd up becoming a flop. REMEMBER LAZERDISC???????

---

LAZERDISC was mainly a flop because of price,speed,quality, life span and support, HDVD/BR are litrealy re dos on the DVD spec they are bigger faster and what not they also each have a ton of support so it could jsut break down into a +/- thing where they share the market.