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Analysts forecast a Blu-ray victory for next year... Probably

21 December 2007 18:12 by Rich "vurbal" Fiscus | 53 comments

Yet another group of industry analysts is predicting that next year will almost certainly see a single dominant HD disc format emerge next year. Unlike recent speculation from Screen Digest, however, the report from Understanding and Solutions includes predicting which side it will be. In their analysts' estimation Blu-ray will emerge as the victor in 2008.

�Blu-ray and HD DVD player prices have been falling since the summer, culminating in Toshiba�s loss-leading sub-$100 HD DVD player, available in the U.S. last month for a Limited time,� said Jeremy Wills, an Understanding and Solutions consultant. �Price reductions in the U.S. have continued into December, with Blu-ray players dropping below $300 for the first time and HD DVD players below $200.�

�Crucially,� added Wills, �Blu-ray benefits from stronger Hollywood studio support and represents a greater proportion of high-definition disc production volumes and disc sales. To date, Paramount�s move to sole support of HD DVD has failed to turn the market, despite the HD DVD exclusivity of key titles Transformers and Shrek the Third. Blu-ray still represented more than 70% of high-definition video sales in the U.S. during the week Transformers was released on HD DVD.�

Not everyone is so sure that the only issue is player price, which is where the disconnect between Screen Digest's prediction of 'one side or the other' and Understanding and Solutions' 'almost certainly Blu-ray' come in. Already this year the dynamic between the two formats was drastically altered when Paramount, originally a HD DVD supporter but eventually format neutral, threw their weight behind HD DVD, reportedly in exchange for millions of dollars in "incentives."

Most analysts seem to agree that if any studio were to drop support for either format it could finally signal the real end to the format war.

Source: Video Business

Permalink to this article | Topic: Blu-ray

The future of Blu-ray and HD DVD still not decided (5 January 2008)

WiHD 1.0 specification now official (3 January 2008)

Analyst predicts beginning of the end for DVD (27 December 2007)

New releases on HD DVD gaining momentum (21 December 2007)

Digital Playground goes dual format (20 December 2007)

Analysts disagree over how many people are buying DVDs this Christmas (18 December 2007)

Analysts predict format war to end next year (18 December 2007)

Sony Blu-ray player hits new low price (17 December 2007)

Toshiba to produce laptop with recordable HD DVD drive (17 December 2007)

Best Buy offering BOGO on HD DVD and Blu-ray titles (16 December 2007)

UK will see new Venturer HD DVD player with extras (15 December 2007)

Despite Blu-ray's sales lead analysts predict a stalemate (4 December 2007)

Studios call web enabled HD DVD features a hit (4 December 2007)

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vinny13 (Inactive) 22 December 2007 18:07
Why are HD-DVDs usually $5-$10 more then Blu-Ray movies? [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 22 December 2007 18:30
evz translation: "OMG everyone stop buying stuff on line you have to wait for it!!!" sigh vinny13 http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_i_0?ie...20DVD%2Ci%3Advd http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_i_0?ie...20ray%2Ci%3Advd and that price difference is only in your head they average 20-24 a pop with a few 25-30 ones, its all about pricing schemes,stock and poulatiry. [ + quote]
hughjars (Inactive) 22 December 2007 19:32
It's the last gasp of an exhausted and failed viral campaign Zippy. We've a short couple of weeks to go until the obvious is made plain to even the most obstinate. That's all this is. Fell sorry for those they led up the garden path with their lies, PR and over-priced & under-spec'd cr@p. [ + quote]
roger32 (Newbie) 22 December 2007 19:34
*Quote:* *Originally posted by roger32:* The bottom line is that there are far more PS3 and standalone Bluray players in the market than there are HDDVD players. - No, that's only part of the actual 'bottom line'. The bit the PS3/Blu-ray fanclub love to leave out is how poor the sales lead that Blu-ray has had is compared to those so few HD DVD players. That's why attachment rates do matter & why this is just a matter of time; as HD DVD sells more and more the owners buy far more movies. *Originally posted by roger32:* Furthermore, there are presently more movies out in the Bluray format - No, that's plain wrong. Thanks to HD DVD being region free every time you can source movies from anywhere and it means there are in fact more HD DVD movies available and there are more exclusive HD DVD movies available too. *Originally posted by roger32:* and as a whole they are outselling HDDVD titles. - No-one has disputed that. The PS3 generated a wholly expected short-term lead. The only surprise was how poor that lead was and how quickly it is being closed down. The point is that the gap has closed and is going to be closing still further. *Originally posted by roger32:* Show me one creditable source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war. - LMAO, so a handful of old (and now very out-of -date) forecasts are your last hope then? As I said before, we've gone from just about everyone starting this by writing off HD DVD as the underdog and saying Blu-ray would win easily to comments about stalemate and no clear winner. Give it time. Having pulled back away from their early 'easy win' forecasts and pondering over their non-committal current 'stalemate' forecasts (which even Sony top Blu-ray BS'er Stringer agrees with - so you know it's really much worse) it's only a matter of time until the reality of $100 HD DVD has them all changing their tune, again. *Originally posted by roger32:* I really think that anything that anyone can say is speculation at this point. - Mine might be speculation, but at least it's informed by events & actual reality. Those Chinese brands are a fact, they are coming. 'HD DVD China' is the same as 'our' HD DVD except for a mere firmware & a case logo. The mainstream a/v mass-market is also far larger than the game console market (which PS3 has not done especially well in either, being stuck firmly in 3rd place, despite slightly improved sales in the last month or so). *Originally posted by roger32:* Bluray will win the war!!! - Dream on. Blu-ray cannot now actually win. It can co-exist but it will not actually win, not without Universal & Viacom/Paramount et al. *Originally posted by roger32:* You on the other hand have much more invested in this than I do. - Yeah, whatever. Maybe it's a lot to you, it isn't to me. My HD A/EP35 - which will always play my collection of HD DVDs & DVDs or even CDs if I choose - was about 1/2 the price of a PS3. So perhaps not such a big "investment" (LMAO) or a lot of cash afterall. I thought that I had finished the conversation apparently you like to ramble. You are using the same sources over and over again. Find some new (credible) data and then talk with me. Everything your mentioning is based on "actual events" and second hand knowledge. You still have not met the challenge that I posed: Show me one credible source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war. What is your so called "data" that you are basing this prediction on? Bluray will win the format war!!!! [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 22 December 2007 19:37
*Originally posted by hughjars:* It's the last gasp of an exhausted and failed viral campaign Zippy. We've a short couple of weeks to go until the obvious is made plain to even the most obstinate. That's all this is. Fell sorry for those they led up the garden path with their lies, PR and over-priced & under-spec'd cr@p. It is what it is when it is, nothign more nothing less a winner is made when tis won not before, things are going better for BR than HDVD but time will tell who will win. [ + quote]
hughjars (Inactive) 22 December 2007 20:03
*Originally posted by roger32:* I thought that I had finished the conversation apparently you like to ramble. - LMAO Ooooh that 'rambling' comment really knotted your panties eh? Hilarious. *Originally posted by roger32:* You are using the same sources over and over again. - Er, no. The latest is that the HD DVD version of Harry Potter just outsold the Blu-ray version. That is exactly the kind of data Warner said they'd be looking to in the Q4 of 2007 results before deciding which way they were going to go. *Originally posted by roger32:* Find some new (credible) data and then talk with me. - How many new ways can it be spelt out that the disc sales gap is closing and that there are indeed a wave of $100 (that's the regular price, not a season special) Chinese HD DVD players on the way and in numbers? *Originally posted by roger32:* Everything your mentioning is based on "actual events" and second hand knowledge. - Yeah, actual events and reported (ok so it's therefore 2nd hand but so what, it verifiable fact) like Toshiba signing their licencing deals in 2005 and Microsoft their in Jan 2007. *Originally posted by roger32:* You still have not met the challenge that I posed: Show me one credible source that is not a .com stating that the HDDVD will win the war. - ......and I said 1st of all it matters not just now and secondly give it a little time. I can tell you (tho you choose to skip past it) that you'll not be finding anyone forecasting an easy Blu-ray victory anymore. *Originally posted by roger32:* What is your so called "data" that you are basing this prediction on? - It's been obvious since it became clear that not only were HD DVD able to get cheaper faster but that HD DVD attachment rates were easily well ahead of Blu-ray's. *Originally posted by roger32:* Bluray will win the format war!!!! - Enjoy your delusions you really don't have too long left to do so now. *Originally posted by ZippyDSM:* things are going better for BR than HDVD - Things are not Zippy. Blu-ray's small sales lead is being chewed into mightily, despite at least a 10:1+ advantage in players they simply are not shifting the movies. Things are going better for HD DVD, the Harry Potter data will have an enormous influence on Warner's decisions in the coming month. There's no way Blu-ray being outsold on that one is anything but a complete disaster (particularly considering the timing) for Blu-ray. [ + quote]
vinny13 (Inactive) 22 December 2007 21:03
Hd-DVD's smaller sales leads to Blu-Ray's victory. It may not be doing as great as it could be, but it's good enough to outsell HD-DVD almost EVERY WEEK THIS YEAR. [ + quote]
hughjars (Inactive) 23 December 2007 12:12
No-one cares about the early sales lead Blu-ray took. People like Warner said they would wait and see how sales in Q4 of 2007 worked out before making their big decisions. The fact is that the PS3/Blu-ray strategy has failed. HD DVD shifts movies in a way Blu-ray does not. It's just a matter of time now until the $100 regularly priced (not limited season special) HD DVD players arrive and make off with the mass-market in a way the PS3 game consol can never do. [ + quote]
vinny13 (Inactive) 23 December 2007 21:43
*Originally posted by hughjars:* No-one cares about the early sales lead Blu-ray took. People like Warner said they would wait and see how sales in Q4 of 2007 worked out before making their big decisions. The fact is that the PS3/Blu-ray strategy has failed. HD DVD shifts movies in a way Blu-ray does not. It's just a matter of time now until the $100 regularly priced (not limited season special) HD DVD players arrive and make off with the mass-market in a way the PS3 game consol can never do. Oh yes. They are surely moving their movies in a way that Blu-Ray just cannot compete with. Selling less is something Blu-Ray cannot do :/ [ + quote]
borhan9 (AfterDawn Addict) 28 December 2007 18:33
I will see this when it happens at the moment we still have both formats and i feel when one dies is the time that i will choose to buy the one that survives and if this takes a few years i will wait. It will be worth it. [ + quote]
smcrzyguy (Newbie) 31 December 2007 6:11
B.S!, my prediction: they both will come out even, mark my words. this same "format war" occurred with DVD+R/-R, what happened? dvd writers ended up writing to both formats, the obvious reasons being that they ultimately read the same way and both are the same fricken size! I don't understand why people are still debating over which format will win. THERE ARE ALREADY PLAYERS THAT PLAY BOTH FORMATS. Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change? [ + quote]
nobrainer (Member) 31 December 2007 7:00
*Originally posted by smcrzyguy:* Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change? the MPAA backed format is Blu-Ray or DRM-Ray if you want to be technical and they care that this orwellian, anti consumer format wins the war on piracy. download via bit torrent and watch this creative commons FREE LEGAL movie(look on the left and lick xvid, dvd, ipod ect for dif versions): http://www.stealthisfilm.com/Part2/ "Intellectual Property is the oil of the 21st century" - this quote by Mark Getty, chairman of Getty Images, one of the world's largest Intellectual Proprietors, offers a unique perspective on the current conflicts around copyrights, patents and trademarks. Tor: anonymity online HIDE your IP from the spies, post and browse anonymously! http://www.torproject.org/ The RIAA Soundexchange Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, EMI. The MPAA Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, DISNEY, PARAMOUNT, FOX. [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 31 December 2007 7:01
atomicxl (Newbie) 4 January 2008 11:52
*Quote:* *Originally posted by evz:* What idiot is gonna order his HD discs online(even if he saves a few bucks) and wait for like a week for them to show up. It's just plain idiocracy!!! Thats silly logic. You could apply that logic to any and everything that an online retailer sells. Its like you think online retailing is idiocracy... despite the success of sites like Amazon.com and online storefronts for brick and mortar retailers continually having increasing revenue while brick and mortar stores have seen decreasing for like the past 5 years. People like to save money. Some value that over immediacy. You may not agree with it, but it is reality. Amazon.com is a very successful online store... and its merely one of the hundreds of successful stores. [ + quote]
roger32 (Newbie) 5 January 2008 15:51
Hello All, Yet another serious blow to the HDDVD format. Hughjars wrote: *Quote:* Warner sid they were going to be watching Q4 sales very closely. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was a like-for-like release on both formats and it's looking highly likely that despite the approx 10:1+ lead in players that Bu-ray has they have either lost to HD DVD or only just barely beaten HD DVD. That's the sort of thing that moves studios - especially when they know even cheaper HD DVD players are only a few months away. Warner has decided to back Bluray exclusively. Hughjars, maybe you should rethink which side you are on. You can have all the cheap Chinese players that you want, without movies to play on the player it is pointless. Bluray will win!!! [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 5 January 2008 15:59
smcrzyguy Yes and no, there were only +R -R writers the spec was readable on most if not all DVD drives, this is diffrent much more like beta v VHS. [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 5 January 2008 15:59
vinny13 (Inactive) 5 January 2008 17:53
*Quote:* *Originally posted by smcrzyguy:* Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change? the MPAA backed format is Blu-Ray or DRM-Ray if you want to be technical and they care that this orwellian, anti consumer format wins the war on piracy. download via bit torrent and watch this creative commons FREE LEGAL movie(look on the left and lick xvid, dvd, ipod ect for dif versions): http://www.stealthisfilm.com/Part2/ "Intellectual Property is the oil of the 21st century" - this quote by Mark Getty, chairman of Getty Images, one of the world's largest Intellectual Proprietors, offers a unique perspective on the current conflicts around copyrights, patents and trademarks. And just as the movie quotes many times, piracy cannot be stopped or even controlled for that matter. So what are you worried about? [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 5 January 2008 17:59
*Quote:* *Quote:* *Originally posted by smcrzyguy:* Who cares which format the movie studios support, if one player plays it all, the customer will buy either and sales will wind up 1:1. I am objecting many "professional" opinions, but again mark my words: NEITHER format will win. Also, Movie studios have at one time switched from one format to the other WITH NO INTENTIONS TO SWITCH BACK. If people keep buying both formats (the ratio is not changing) the movie studios will keep selling their supported format, why should they change? the MPAA backed format is Blu-Ray or DRM-Ray if you want to be technical and they care that this orwellian, anti consumer format wins the war on piracy. download via bit torrent and watch this creative commons FREE LEGAL movie(look on the left and lick xvid, dvd, ipod ect for dif versions): http://www.stealthisfilm.com/Part2/ "Intellectual Property is the oil of the 21st century" - this quote by Mark Getty, chairman of Getty Images, one of the world's largest Intellectual Proprietors, offers a unique perspective on the current conflicts around copyrights, patents and trademarks. And just as the movie quotes many times, piracy cannot be stopped or even controlled for that matter. So what are you worried about? Becuse from a consumer stand point choosing the lesser of evils is better than ignoring it and waking up one morning to find the black boots have landed and full enforcement of "infringement" laws. [ + quote]
vinny13 (Inactive) 5 January 2008 18:18
Well you would have to pick Blu-Ray anyways because HD-DVD doesn't even have a burner... [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 5 January 2008 18:42
*Originally posted by vinny13:* Well you would have to pick Blu-Ray anyways because HD-DVD doesn't even have a burner... So? the prices on current BR writer media and hardware make it non exsistant to for the average consumer. In fact sicne they are starting later with the HDVD writer stuff its prices on hardware will be 30% less or more what BR was/is. [ + quote]
vinny13 (Inactive) 5 January 2008 18:55
*Quote:* *Originally posted by vinny13:* Well you would have to pick Blu-Ray anyways because HD-DVD doesn't even have a burner... So? the prices on current BR writer media and hardware make it non exsistant to for the average consumer. In fact sicne they are starting later with the HDVD writer stuff its prices on hardware will be 30% less or more what BR was/is. Ya but it's there... [ + quote]
smcrzyguy (Newbie) 5 January 2008 19:02
*Originally posted by ZippyDSM:* smcrzyguy Yes and no, there were only +R -R writers the spec was readable on most if not all DVD drives, this is diffrent much more like beta v VHS. Ya, but think about it, most computer drives already play both formats in one. Eventually this will happen with shelf top players. Also with writers [ + quote]
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 5 January 2008 19:08
*Quote:* *Originally posted by ZippyDSM:* smcrzyguy Yes and no, there were only +R -R writers the spec was readable on most if not all DVD drives, this is diffrent much more like beta v VHS. Ya, but think about it, most computer drives already play both formats in one. Eventually this will happen with shelf top players. Also with writers in time yes thats still a good 2 years out if not 3 and if another studuio jumps HDVD is dead as a viable media format for hollywod and that will mean its dead for just abotu everythign, oh sure it will cling to life but like the Zip drive die a slow painful death. But it dose have a larger window to cling to life, both do but still most likely the market as a whole will chose one and the other will fall to the waste side. [ + quote]
varnull (Senior Member) 5 January 2008 19:24
So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry? There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded... As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up. Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media. Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 5 January 2008 19:27
ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 5 January 2008 19:37
*Originally posted by varnull:* So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry? There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded... As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up. Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media. Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud Hollywood/media conglomerates they are far beyond local considerations , yes hollywood or the media mafia in the US plays a key role in things but there is more than 1 key to this puzzle. Even world wise the market is split with a 10% diffreance once you add up where the formats are theres still plenty of life in the current direction of this format war, that direction being 1 winner but it could as easily break apart and they both join forces. In he end lower prices to cosnuemrs is what is most important and if BR can price break it should drown HDVD easily. [ + quote]
roger32 (Newbie) 5 January 2008 21:53
*Originally posted by varnull:* So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry? There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded... As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up. Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media. Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud I can't see how you can still side with hugh. What does the Indian and Hong Kong studios have to do with HD sales in the US. How many Americans play Indian and Hong Kong films? Not many. I agree that these locations may side with the HDDVD format but it will not be a benefit for those here in America with HDDVD players. How many of these other countries watch American made films? Many. With Warner and it's subsidiaries sided with bluray, HDDVD is living on bought time (150million). Once Paramounts agreements with the HDDVD camp are up, they will have to switch their efforts to the Bluray format. Also take into account the fact that Apple will be incorporating Bluray into their computers as well as several other manufacturers adds to the momentum of the Bluray boulder. Bluray is the clear winner of this format war!!! [ + quote]
roger32 (Newbie) 5 January 2008 22:13
*Originally posted by varnull:* So .. sitting there with western turned eyes you think hollywood is an important global player in the film/media industry? There is a huge amount of wool pulling being done here.. wait until the massive Indian and Hong Kong studios decide to go HD.. and because they sell into a truly global market guess which format they will go with.. I can pretty much guarantee it will not be anythng region coded... As for the so called huge blu-ray sales increase.. buy a ps3, send in the ticket and within 70 days get 5 films.. those will be classed as sales.. Also there is a lot of the bogo going on as the desperate sony try to keep yet another failed format alive... They did exactly the same with films on umd until they gave up. Now if the hd camp really want to kill this blu-ray idiocy once and for all what they need is.... a standalone recorder and reasonably priced blank media. Keep going hugh.. you won this argument months ago bud As for your comment regarding the 5 free bluray offer that Sony offers with their PS3: HDDVD has the same offer http://www.thelookandsoundofperfect.com/_pdf/perfect_hd_dvd_offer_redemption_form.pdf [ + quote] This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 5 January 2008 22:14