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The future of Blu-ray and HD DVD still not decided

5 January 2008 15:53 by Rich "vurbal" Fiscus | 57 comments

The future of Blu-ray and HD DVD still not decided With the increase in available Blu-ray and HD DVD titles both formats are seeing increased visibility in stores. Blu-ray with more releases and higher Title sales than HD DVD, is also gaining more shelf space, but both have seen significant increases over the last year.

“It’s really a function of more titles being available,” said Best Buy spokesman Brian Lucas. “We are still supporting both equally and haven’t staked a position on [the format war]. We are definitely giving more space and presence to next-generation titles. Part of that is once you start selling the hardware, you have a responsibility to help people get the most out of it.”

It's also worth mentioning that as DVD sales have declined over the same period, industry analysts have said they expect shelf space for them to drop as well. With the increasing emphasis, both among studios and retailers, on replacing DVDs with so called "next-gen" formats this seems to be an accurate prediction.

A bigger question right now, which the studios and consumer electronics manufacturers don't appear willing to tackle head on, is whether any format can have the success enjoyed for many years by DVD. An anonymous source from one studio told Video Business “At the beginning of the year we started at less than 1%, and now that has gone closer to 5%. Unit sales have increased more than six and a half times between December 2006 and December 2007.”

But in a way this highlights the problem right now. A 650% increase in DVD sales would be massive, but the same percentage increase in the new formats doesn't really amount to that many sales, and certainly not enough to make either format profitable, either for studios or player manufacturers.

Clearly the best sign for the future of both formats is the steady adoption of HDTVs by the public, but unlike HD DVD and Blu-ray players, they're still not available for the kind of bargain basement prices necessary to sell them to many people who haven't made the switch yet. Even a $50 player isn't useful to someone who can't afford a $500 HDTV.

In light of Warner Brothers' recent decision to drop HD DVD support and throw their weight behind Blu-ray, it appears that the "war" between the two formats may be over. Assuming that's the case, what have they really won?

So far they've apparently won less than a 10% share of the home video market, and there's no guarantee that anything resembling the success of DVD is even possible. The differences between DVD and Blu-ray (or HD DVD) are as striking as the similarities.

Source: Video Business

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    Discuss this article!  There are more user comments available, read them here
    juankerr (Member) 6 January 2008 7:21 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by vurbal:
    No doubt there will be increased sales if one format or the other disappears, but I can't imagine any format will ever see the kind of success DVD had. DVD wasn't a fluke, but its success was fueled by unique circumstances that aren't likely to be repeated again, and certainly aren't in place now.
    I agree with error5 on this. I tend to be more optimistic about the future of HD media. DVD has been an unqualified success but evolution is the natural order of things including technology. Apparently your webmaster dRD also shares our view:

    http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/12335.cfm

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 6 January 2008 7:23

    ddp (Moderator) 6 January 2008 12:52 Send private message to this user   
    red2tango & 26r0cK just got temp bans. anybody else want 1 because if not then knock off the flames or i'll flame you off this site. your choice!!!
    windsong (Junior Member) 6 January 2008 13:48 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by ddp:
    anybody else want 1
    Er...huh?
    ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 6 January 2008 13:53 Send private message to this user   
    testing new sig

    For all the console/game fanboys out their.
    http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles...Console-Rundown
    Oh god I can't stop laughing!!!
    ---
    And for the format nazi's I bring you HHD DVVD BVD's!!
    ddp (Moderator) 6 January 2008 13:54 Send private message to this user   
    temp ban.
    HughFart (Newbie) 6 January 2008 17:11 Send private message to this user   
    They are not what people like Warner said they were interested in.

    Warner said they were interested in seeing how the numbers looked for Q4 of 2007.

    It's HD DVD that has come out of Q4 of 2007 showing that it's attachment rates do matter and that despite Blu-ray's 10:1+ lead in players they cannot even hold their old 2:1 advantage in sales.

    A 10:1+ advantage in player numbers holding a 1.56:1 lead is pathetic.

    Blu-ray have simply bought every week with BOGOs (20 Blu-ray BOGOs to 2 HD DVD BOGOs this year) - adding even further significant costs to the already more expensive format.

    Yes indeed, CES 2008 is going to be very illuminating
    (and some people are in for a shock, count on it).
    rihgt682 (Senior Member) 7 January 2008 5:07 Send private message to this user   
    this format war is not even close to being over. It's going to take awhile to replace dvd or it's not going to happened at all. You have realize vhs to dvd was Huge change, But it's not for a fact that DVD will be replaced by blu-ray or hd-dvd. It can be replaced by new thing suck as internet TV. I know for a fact that i'm not buying hd-dvd or blu-ray till it has more than half of dvd sales. right now torrents works fine by me
    Nephilim (Moderator) 7 January 2008 10:09 Send private message to this user   
    FROM THIS POINT FORWARD ANY AND ALL NEGATIVE OR DISPARAGING REMARKS AIMED AT AN INDIVIDUAL OR INDIVIDUALS WILL RESULT IN A BAN.

    I have no patience and less than zero tolerance for idiotic crap like that so make sure your post is squeaky clean before you click the post button!

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 8 January 2008 1:13

    DXR88 (Member) 7 January 2008 20:06 Send private message to this user   
    Rambling mans rampent post warning



    WOW somebody woke up the beast. hey Nephilim its okay. some people are just two fry's short of a happymeal.

    but yeah there have been flames after flames with the whole mentune of the new format wars. but thats sometimes to be expected

    oh uh guys if you gonna flame do it in a more self mannered way directed flaming is the number one reason people pass by forum.

    why would i sign up and post a comment to have some guy flame me.

    when you think of it this way its no wonder moderaters despise such behavour.

    so keep it clean and fun.

    thanks
    Grampaw (Member) 8 January 2008 15:25 Send private message to this user   
    I don't get the point of this discussion of "who will win the format war." I decided back when the PS3 came out to get that console and then the cheapest Toshiba 1080p player (the A20)so I'd have both bases covered - I figured both formats would be around for at least 3 years. If not my fallback plan is as follow:

    If the HD-DVD standard dies, then I'll go buy all those obsolete HD-DVD titles for pennies on a dollar that being dumped. I'll continue to use the HD-DVD player as an excellent upconverter to 1080p for standard def discs.

    If the Blu-ray standard dies, then I've still got a PS3 game console, even though I'm not a gamer. Better yet, the PS3 is one of those original ones with 4 USB ports, media card readers, and the Emotion Engine for backward game compatibility, which probably has a good resale value if I wanted to unload it. I'll probably just keep it as a game machine for when my grandson visits, load Linux as an alternate OS, continue to use it for for slideshows of all my pictures, etc. It's a multipurpose machine, not just a blu-ray player.

    So I don't really care about the future of Blu-ray and HD-DVD...
    borhan9 (AfterDawn Addict) 8 January 2008 17:19 Send private message to this user   
    Eventually companies will have to make choices and go with a format. The way things are panning out i think that blu-ray may go ahead however i dont know if they are going to win because if HD DVD is microsoft backed then it may be very close call still.
    ZippyDSM (AfterDawn Addict) 8 January 2008 17:26 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by Grampaw:
    I don't get the point of this discussion of "who will win the format war." I decided back when the PS3 came out to get that console and then the cheapest Toshiba 1080p player (the A20)so I'd have both bases covered - I figured both formats would be around for at least 3 years. If not my fallback plan is as follow:

    If the HD-DVD standard dies, then I'll go buy all those obsolete HD-DVD titles for pennies on a dollar that being dumped. I'll continue to use the HD-DVD player as an excellent upconverter to 1080p for standard def discs.

    If the Blu-ray standard dies, then I've still got a PS3 game console, even though I'm not a gamer. Better yet, the PS3 is one of those original ones with 4 USB ports, media card readers, and the Emotion Engine for backward game compatibility, which probably has a good resale value if I wanted to unload it. I'll probably just keep it as a game machine for when my grandson visits, load Linux as an alternate OS, continue to use it for for slideshows of all my pictures, etc. It's a multipurpose machine, not just a blu-ray player.

    So I don't really care about the future of Blu-ray and HD-DVD...
    think of it as kids thinking they know better about a subject and battle it out with childish immaturely...altho in geekdom its more "I can speculate better than you" or "Zomg I fanboy smash"...I gues its still childish hot hotheadedness, I do like guessing and sharing my opinions over it.

    But I wont claim I am more...mature ^_~

    In the end bitchign whining and speculating here keeps us younguns off drugs :P...well...in some fanboy cases...maybe not.... LOL
    RNR1995 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 8:51 Send private message to this user   
    The people should support HD DVD just for the fact that the Blu Ray specification REQUIRES DRM
    If you like DRM go Blu Ray
    Personally I do not like DRM, and I will not purchase anything that resricts where and when I can use it
    vinny13 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 9:52 Send private message to this user   
    I'd rather have DRM then no movies at all.
    RNR1995 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 10:47 Send private message to this user   
    Vinny don't you have cable??
    Sazaziel (Junior Member) 12 January 2008 11:01 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by vinny13:
    I'd rather have DRM then no movies at all.
    't my

    Thats like saying "I'd rather be a slave then to be free".I cant support a company who had people unknowingly install their rootkits to computers as a measure of copyright protection, Gives the RIAA and MPAA fully backed support in what they are doing to people who legally purchase their products on the market with false accusations, Failed at MD format and UMD format and doesnt want you to have any chance at backing up your legally purchased products at all. This list can go on. Maybe I'm a supporter of freedom or a world that has some kind of freedom. I go to theaters and all but purchasing blu ray even if it were all in favor of blu ray isn't my type of thing. I don't spend much time watching TV and purchasing movies are in no way a necessity for me.

    RNR1995....I do agree with you though. So I compared all of this nonsense to the 2008 presidential election. If the wrong format if any is chosen we're all going to suffer from the consequences.
    vinny13 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 11:29 Send private message to this user   
    Ya I got DN and BEV...

    Is it really that big of a deal? This crap always gets cracked and then a couple years down the road it was like it was never there. And I'm pretty sure sooner or later they'll come out with a firmware that allows you to watch BD+R or whatever because that's just retarded lol

    Or I bet when the PS3 finally gets hacked like the PSP they'll find a way, and then everyone will buy PS3s :P

    BR writers are slow and overpriced so they're not worth getting at the moment, and the discs are like $12 a pop, so they aren't worth it either. So where does this DRM issue come in if nobody has this stuff to complain about?

    I have a PS3, and I haven't boughten any movies for it becaus it's too expensive. I have 1, but I got it for Christmas... I don't go to the movies because it's like $10 a ticket and like $14 for popcorn so screw that. I'd rather own it for that price. I just rent a movie and copy it or find it on good ol' Bit Torrent and burn it on a DVD.

    I couldn't care less really about the RIAA and MPAA because I'm Canadian, so I only have the little guys to worry about. They can't enforce their garbage over here :P


    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 12 January 2008 11:43

    RNR1995 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 11:46 Send private message to this user   
    It has already been cracked http://www.slysoft.com
    That's not the point
    Consumers have the power to choose
    Which is why I will never buy, or support $ony products since the root kit fiasco,
    and why I would not waste my money on DRM crap like iTunes and Vista
    The way to change is through your wallet
    If the consumer quits bending over and taking it, the corporations will have to stop trying to put it there......
    vinny13 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 11:51 Send private message to this user   
    Well the average consumer doesn't know what DRM is, and nobody is going to inform them about it because that only makes things worse for them. Most of them think Sony a good brand anyways with their LCDs and all(even though they're a little pricy). I've never had any problems with them, but everybody has their own opinions.

    And what's this root kit stuff?

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 12 January 2008 11:55

    RNR1995 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 11:54 Send private message to this user   
    Google Sony Root Kit
    Google DRM too
    vinny13 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 11:59 Send private message to this user   
    Lol wow I can't even remember the last time I bought a CD.
    Sazaziel (Junior Member) 12 January 2008 12:22 Send private message to this user   
    vinny13 I'm not trying to be funny but you do understand what the term DRM means. And yes it does affect you regardless of whether you live in Canada or not. I assume you d/l just as much as all of us just by reading your comments so I'm not against you nor agreeing with you. Even though they claim DRM is dead which isn't possible to believe. I just want to know what after you have purchased something legally to be yours...what doe the term limited usage mean to you the consumer and this is just an example.
    RNR1995 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 12:55 Send private message to this user   
    I actually have not purchased a CD in a year or so
    Not because of the format, but because I have not heard an album worth purchasing... most new music should go back to the garage it sounds like it came out of....
    vinny13 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 13:14 Send private message to this user   
    Ya basically DRM is a bunch of different "techniques" implemented in mainly movies and music and now video games that limit the usage of it eg. music cannot be shared or ripped onto computers or burned ect. or games will only work on your console after it's played, so you can't resell it(WarHawk is supposed to be like that, I think the PSN download anyways). Basically this impairs the things you buy with a whole bunch of restrictions meaning you can't do whatever you want with it as it may not work, even if it has nothing to do with piracy, like making back-ups incase you damage the disc in general. This was supposed to slow down piracy, which obviously it only ruined sales and gave people a bigger reason to become "pirates".

    It's pretty much the Hitler of Copy Rights.

    This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 12 January 2008 13:17

    vinny13 (Inactive) 12 January 2008 13:15 Send private message to this user   
    Originally posted by RNR1995:
    I actually have not purchased a CD in a year or so
    Not because of the format, but because I have not heard an album worth purchasing... most new music should go back to the garage it sounds like it came out of....
    There's something we both can agree on :P
    salsa36 (Newbie) 12 January 2008 21:43 Send private message to this user   
    Who wrote this?

    The better and winner format is bluray, but you all missing the point!:

    It does not matter who wins! the money is going to Japan anyway!
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