AfterDawn: Tech news

NPD analysts predict long haul for next-gen adoption

Written by Rich Fiscus (Google+) @ 25 Oct 2007 11:53 User comments (21)

NPD analysts predict long haul for next-gen adoption A new NPD Group study indicates a promising future for next-gen video formats, but only if a single format is available at a lower price than players currently sell for.
More than 65% of all respondents to the survey indicated no plans to buy either a Blu-ray or HD DVD player. The single most common reason cited was high player prices. Nearly as many people said they see no need to replace their DVD player and library of movies, and 60% are happy with the hi-def movies from satellite or cable. More than half said they're waiting for a single format to invest in and will wait for Resolution of the war between Blu-ray and HD DVD. Just over 10% indicated they're extremely likely to buy a player.

Russ Crupnick, VP and senior analyst with NPD Entertainment, cautioned that the rate at which early Blu-ray and HD DVD customers are replacing their DVDs is likely misleading for projecting typical consumer behavior. He said “Once you get to the mainstream consumer, we’re not sure they’re going to be all that anxious to replace their libraries.” However, he still expects hi-def disc formats to eventually catch on, although he cautions “without improving the benefit proposition and probably driving down hardware prices even more it’s going to be a longer haul than we’d probably like.”

Source: Home Media Magazine

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21 user comments

125.10.2007 12:45
nobrainer
Inactive

People are happy with DVD's.

A bad film looks even worse when you spent 2x or 3x as much to purchase it in the first place!

I can't w8 until the MPAA (Sony Pictures, Buena Vista (Walt Disney ), Paramount Pictures (Viacom - DreamWorks), 20th Century Fox , Universal Studios , and Warner Bros. (Time Warner))

to unleash the new DRM which is the Image Constraint Token (ICT) on the general public in 2010 which will downscale all equipment that is not crippled enough with sony and co DRM! just what you need to make you purchase hi-def kit when the quality is heavily reduced!

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 25 Oct 2007 @ 12:46

225.10.2007 13:19
tavek
Inactive

HOW MANY PREDICTIONS and STUDIES can there possibly be? Might as well call mis CLEO and get her prediction on this.

325.10.2007 13:32
nobrainer
Inactive

Originally posted by tavek:
HOW MANY PREDICTIONS and STUDIES can there possibly be? Might as well call mis CLEO and get her prediction on this.
The NPD group are the authority on sales and marketing!

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 25 Oct 2007 @ 13:34

425.10.2007 14:02

Originally posted by tavek:
HOW MANY PREDICTIONS and STUDIES can there possibly be? Might as well call mis CLEO and get her prediction on this.
LOLz

525.10.2007 14:47

Originally posted by nobrainer:
People are happy with DVD's.
so true if you have a 32 or higher lcd or plasma plus a decent soudn system u'll be fine why spend thousands of dollars.
i have a friend who has a 700 dvd collection, he says dvd is fine it's good enough and that's the answer from movie freak

625.10.2007 14:54

It's called "blowing smoke up your ass". They don't know anything. All they know his how much money they got to say whatever it is they said. Anyone that believes otherwise is a lost soul. Enjoy your delusion.
I will agree that another HiDef format will take over. It's only a matter of time. HD DVD is to passive aggressive and Sony is to eager to shove it down your throat. The people will decide and if these formats don't soon figure out what the hell they are doing they will both be left in the dust.
I have a question for those of you bitching about DRM...... Doesn’t matter if it is right or wrong Hollywood still doesn't want you copying the movies you buy and will do what is necessary to keep you from copying movies. What makes you think that DRM will not be implemented after one of these formats becomes the standard?

725.10.2007 16:00

Quote:
Originally posted by nobrainer:
People are happy with DVD's.
so true if you have a 32 or higher lcd or plasma plus a decent soudn system u'll be fine why spend thousands of dollars.
i have a friend who has a 700 dvd collection, he says dvd is fine it's good enough and that's the answer from movie freak
3 words: Upconvert DVD Player... It even makes my Divx/Xvid movies look "HD" and that's off of a COMPACT DISC!!! Just goes to show that DVD9 is being bloated with extra features and the "you must spend money on this ultra-mega-super-deluxe-never-before-seen edition" of the shrill Hollywood is putting out these days.

825.10.2007 16:47
24Lover
Inactive

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by nobrainer:
People are happy with DVD's.
so true if you have a 32 or higher lcd or plasma plus a decent soudn system u'll be fine why spend thousands of dollars.
i have a friend who has a 700 dvd collection, he says dvd is fine it's good enough and that's the answer from movie freak
3 words: Upconvert DVD Player... It even makes my Divx/Xvid movies look "HD" and that's off of a COMPACT DISC!!! Just goes to show that DVD9 is being bloated with extra features and the "you must spend money on this ultra-mega-super-deluxe-never-before-seen edition" of the shrill Hollywood is putting out these days.
I'm sorry but Upconvert just don't come close to HD period....I agree that people should invest in upconvert but if you have someone that watches HD & upconvert you can tell the major difference.Plus some DVD's will not let you upconvert.

Originally posted by djeasyg:
I have a question for those of you bitching about DRM...... Doesn’t matter if it is right or wrong Hollywood still doesn't want you copying the movies you buy and will do what is necessary to keep you from copying movies. What makes you think that DRM will not be implemented after one of these formats becomes the standard?
Couldn't agree with you more there.DRM is going to be here weather people like it or not so just get use to it.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 25 Oct 2007 @ 16:50

925.10.2007 17:55

long format war.....no you think?.....


24lover
if you dont have 500+ to blow on hdef then dont,upconverting is more than enough to get one through until a new format is crowned.

1025.10.2007 18:11

The fact of the matter is that DVD's are still the affordable format these days ever since we made the switch from VHS to DVD it will take at least 5 years before it becomes widespread to go to the next generation HD format which ever one gets the majority.

1125.10.2007 18:43

I will buy an HD display when the price keeps coming down, but I have no plans to replace my dvd collection and have no plans to buy a HD player. Like it was said before, a HD version of a movie just shows you the movie sucked even clearer. So they can predict all they want but I'm not budging for a long time until I am proved of quality vs. price=reason to buy.

1225.10.2007 21:43
nobrainer
Inactive

@ 24Lover

DRM is gaining notoriety among a greater population than ever before because of all the negative press.Every time another sony drm messes up and gets huge negative press coverage, a few more ppl wont purchase it, XCP(extended copy protection), secuROM, ARccOS, BD+, AACS, HDCP and HDMI have all received negative press in the uk papers. Cory Doctorow (anti drm campaigner, writer & editor @ boing boing) has his own anti DRM column in the guardian newspaper in the uk which is one of the largest selling papers in the country, if consumers are aware of the anti-consumer nature of drm it will never be used, vote with your feet.

if you think that the only thing ppl want to do is copy films and this is the reason for the drm which is what the pro drm lobby would want you to believe, you do not fully understand drm. drm is there to dictate what you can do with the media you own . BD+ on sony's blu-ray is the reason i will never own their anti-consumer propertarian format and why my dvd player will do me just fine for many years + dvd's in the uk are £7 on average and a HD title is around £20.

you know some of the best films ever made are in black and white, more pixies would not improve the films, most films suck and aren't even worth a single dollar, does a better quality picture, improve the film? its the same as these supposed next gen games, they are full of wonderful visual effects and last about two/five hours of gameplay does better cgi and effects make them a better game than, elite or 16bit mario/sonic?

you are being told by the studios that this is the ultimate experience and to go and consume like good little sheep so they can have more of your monies.

1325.10.2007 21:59

nobrainer
the Hdef visuals are nice,so is the PS3 or Xbox however it dose not make the price worth the cost, there is always another factor that makes it worth while, for him pretty picuteres dose it.

for my I am just to bitter for todays media LOL

1425.10.2007 22:28
24Lover
Inactive

Quote:
drm is there to dictate what you can do with the media you own . BD+ on sony's blu-ray is the reason i will never own their anti-consumer propertarian format and why my dvd player will do me just fine for many years + dvd's in the uk are £7 on average and a HD title is around £20.
I understand the purpose for DRM its piracy.Do you realize that Piracy has grew to the level of gambling in just 10 years.You got music & movie studio losing Billion of dollars a year off there work.I know they got money but that don't give people rights to take money off there table because these CORPS have money.This is the reason most music artist are pissed right now..How would you free if you worked hard to produce a album but walk up to a street corner & see some on makin a profit off something you worked hard for. I don't get worked up over DRM because 1.I use the item i buy as it intended purpose 2.I know that DRM will be cracked so why everyone so damm worried.Thats just my view of this issue.

1525.10.2007 23:45
nobrainer
Inactive

Originally posted by 24Lover :

I understand the purpose for DRM its piracy.
sry but you are wrong and blinded by the pro lobbies spin, btw do you work for sony?

It is to do with selling everyone a licence so they can make as much money as possible which is why drm make incompatibilities between devices. its to lock you to one brand and one option, then when that company stops operating you lose all you media you thought you owned and have to purchase it all again! its about global price fixing and profiteering, 1 device to rule them all one service to take all the revenue!

here is sony's take on why drm is used!

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...s-stealing.html

Originally posted by link:
Gabriel asked if it was wrong for consumers to make copies of music which they have purchased, even just one copy. Pariser replied, "When an individual makes a copy of a song for himself, I suppose we can say he stole a song." Making "a copy" of a purchased song is just "a nice way of saying 'steals just one copy'," she said.

Countless studies have shown that the majority of music on portable music players like the iPod comes from sources other than download services. For most people, that music is comprised primarily of songs "ripped" from CD collections to MP3 or some other comparable format. Indeed, most portable music players comes with software (like iTunes) which is designed to facilitate the easy ripping of CDs. According to Pariser's view, this is stealing.

Piracy is just another scare tactic, like terrorism, it's to make you believe that you must lose your liberties for just reasons!


Dan Glickman, MPAA chief said >>>
Quote:
DRMs.. provides casual, honest users with guidelines for using and consuming content based on the usage rights that were acquired. Without the use of DRMs, honest consumers would have no guidelines and might eventually come to totally disregard copyright and therefore become a pirate, resulting in great harm to content creators.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 26 Oct 2007 @ 7:12

1626.10.2007 0:11

I agree with the posters who say that they are satisfied with their current DVD player and DVD's. The Hi Def players and dics are too pricey and riddled with DRM. All I can say is keep hammering on DRM. Its crap and very dangerous all the time.

I recently contacted emusic.com about getting into the television show episode download business. Haven't received a reply but the music that they sell is in standard MP3 format with no DRM. I recommend that everyone support all of the DRM free music download sites and boycott those who support DRM (Penguin Audio Books for one).

Just my $.04 (Inflation)

1726.10.2007 16:26

Quote:
Originally posted by 24Lover :

I understand the purpose for DRM its piracy.
sry but you are wrong and blinded by the pro lobbies spin, btw do you work for sony?

It is to do with selling everyone a licence so they can make as much money as possible which is why drm make incompatibilities between devices. its to lock you to one brand and one option, then when that company stops operating you lose all you media you thought you owned and have to purchase it all again! its about global price fixing and profiteering, 1 device to rule them all one service to take all the revenue!

here is sony's take on why drm is used!

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...s-stealing.html

Originally posted by link:
Gabriel asked if it was wrong for consumers to make copies of music which they have purchased, even just one copy. Pariser replied, "When an individual makes a copy of a song for himself, I suppose we can say he stole a song." Making "a copy" of a purchased song is just "a nice way of saying 'steals just one copy'," she said.

Countless studies have shown that the majority of music on portable music players like the iPod comes from sources other than download services. For most people, that music is comprised primarily of songs "ripped" from CD collections to MP3 or some other comparable format. Indeed, most portable music players comes with software (like iTunes) which is designed to facilitate the easy ripping of CDs. According to Pariser's view, this is stealing.

Piracy is just another scare tactic, like terrorism, it's to make you believe that you must lose your liberties for just reasons!


Dan Glickman, MPAA chief said >>>
Quote:
DRMs.. provides casual, honest users with guidelines for using and consuming content based on the usage rights that were acquired. Without the use of DRMs, honest consumers would have no guidelines and might eventually come to totally disregard copyright and therefore become a pirate, resulting in great harm to content creators.

It is about making a COPY. Steals one COPY. COPY.......Pirate a COPY. DRM is all about a COPY of something.
What is this "pro lobbies spin" you talk about? And what does working for Sony have to do with anything? You make no sense at all.
It all comes down to the same thing.....They don't want you making a copy of anything and the DRM is there to stop that. Movies just happens to be the subject here. DRM exists because of Piracy. No other reason. If you want to talk about blind.....You honestly think DRM will not be added to the newest format when it becomes standard? Sony is working out the bugs now and paying the price for it. Wait until they lose the "war" and you have to go thru the "working out the bugs" faze with the new format.

1826.10.2007 17:12
24Lover
Inactive

Originally posted by djeazyg:
Quote:
Originally posted by 24Lover :

I understand the purpose for DRM its piracy.
sry but you are wrong and blinded by the pro lobbies spin, btw do you work for sony?

It is to do with selling everyone a licence so they can make as much money as possible which is why drm make incompatibilities between devices. its to lock you to one brand and one option, then when that company stops operating you lose all you media you thought you owned and have to purchase it all again! its about global price fixing and profiteering, 1 device to rule them all one service to take all the revenue!

here is sony's take on why drm is used!

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...s-stealing.html

Originally posted by link:
Gabriel asked if it was wrong for consumers to make copies of music which they have purchased, even just one copy. Pariser replied, "When an individual makes a copy of a song for himself, I suppose we can say he stole a song." Making "a copy" of a purchased song is just "a nice way of saying 'steals just one copy'," she said.

Countless studies have shown that the majority of music on portable music players like the iPod comes from sources other than download services. For most people, that music is comprised primarily of songs "ripped" from CD collections to MP3 or some other comparable format. Indeed, most portable music players comes with software (like iTunes) which is designed to facilitate the easy ripping of CDs. According to Pariser's view, this is stealing.

Piracy is just another scare tactic, like terrorism, it's to make you believe that you must lose your liberties for just reasons!


Dan Glickman, MPAA chief said >>>
Quote:
DRMs.. provides casual, honest users with guidelines for using and consuming content based on the usage rights that were acquired. Without the use of DRMs, honest consumers would have no guidelines and might eventually come to totally disregard copyright and therefore become a pirate, resulting in great harm to content creators.

It is about making a COPY. Steals one COPY. COPY.......Pirate a COPY. DRM is all about a COPY of something.
What is this "pro lobbies spin" you talk about? And what does working for Sony have to do with anything? You make no sense at all.
It all comes down to the same thing.....They don't want you making a copy of anything and the DRM is there to stop that. Movies just happens to be the subject here. DRM exists because of Piracy. No other reason. If you want to talk about blind.....You honestly think DRM will not be added to the newest format when it becomes standard? Sony is working out the bugs now and paying the price for it. Wait until they lose the "war" and you have to go thru the "working out the bugs" faze with the new format.

Thank you im glad you see my point of view.DRM was made because to many studios music & movie are losing Billions not millions of dollars not because a everyday person who don't want to take a lot of CD or DVD he own & transfer them to his Lab top.Do you really think Sony is the only one that support DRM or any kind of protection on media they own.These corps down want you to steal there stuff its wrong no matter how people try to make this issue complex it isn't.If you Buy a CD or DVD you own that pressed disc you just bought, not that disc & copies you want to give to your friends & family.I know i might show like a CE but i see both sides on the picture not just one.

Quote:
Piracy is just another scare tactic, like terrorism, it's to make you believe that you must lose your liberties for just reasons!
What liberties would i lose if i Buy a DVD player & its plays all my movies & items i bought for it ? Piracy isn't anything close to terrorism trust me i served in the Gulf War.Piracy is a huge issue & getting bigger Terrorism is alive & well today no matter how people want to down play it 911 wasn't a video game it was terrorism.Some Politicians do over hype terrorism sometimes but thats Politics & could be took with a grain of salt... I guess you & me can agree to disagree on this issue but i really think you should start looking at both sides of the story & not just what you see.Peace !

1926.10.2007 17:38

24lover

so you are saying we should lose freedoms (being spied on by the goverment,being searched and held without a warrent) in order to fight terrorism.(alot of this anti citizen terrorism BS could have been done in the light and done as to gain warrants and whatnot in a reasonable but quick fashion leaving no room to question their validty,not to mention the ton of other sht GW .co has done)

Should we lose all fair use rights in order for the corporations to not change their M.O. and adapt to the times?

Any business that rakes in trillions a year world wide is going to lose billions before sharing ever gets into the picture,piracy,the act of selling illicit goods can damage regional sales and further poisonous black markets, there is simply jsut not enough computer users/downloaders/sharers to damage the industry as they claim, they also claim each copy "traded" is a copy unsold when in truth its more like 10-30% of whatever number they are flying that day.

The industry needs to refocus on the disto of data and illicit copies anythign else is just bullying on thier part.

2026.10.2007 17:54
nobrainer
Inactive

DRM now, is more about regional price fixing and locking content to the device that your company sells than it is about piracy. most of the figures from the mpaa/riaa have been publicly exposed as false and made up on the spot so to quote billions would suggest you are a lobby yourself, why sony, because they are the main pro drm lobby in congress and they are the leading member pushing more anti consumer drm onto the public, that locks you down more than any other studio! but seems they are at the for front of 5 other drm bodies its not really surprising!

http://www.theinquirer.net/en/inquirer/n...-piracy-figures

Originally posted by link:
Canadian coppers admit making up piracy figures
$30 billion figure simply plucked from bottom

By Nick Farrell: Wednesday, 19 September 2007, 8:52 AM

FOR MONTHS, Canadian coppers have been claiming that software piracy costs the country $30 billion.

This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 26 Oct 2007 @ 18:02

2126.10.2007 18:03

LG dropped the price on the Superblu player from $999 to $499, plays both formats.

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