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Movie industry insiders see a bright future for Blu-ray

Written by Rich Fiscus (Google+) @ 17 Jun 2008 3:35 User comments (12)

Movie industry insiders see a bright future for Blu-ray At the Home Entertainment Media Summit in Los Angeles there were a lot of bold predictions about the future of Blu-ray among entertainment industry insiders. All in all though there was apparently more heat than light.
Disney representatives in particular seem to have come wearing their rose colored glasses. Lori MacPherson, Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment general manager North America predicted that by 2015 Blu-ray will account for 56% of entertainment sales, while online video will only amount to 6%. That seems confident to say the least with online video at least appearing ready to take off at any time.

Gordon Ho, representing Disney marketting was also very upbeat. He talked about the importance of BD-Live, which studios and player manufacturers are counting on to boost sales this year, but given Disney's somewhat limited view of it's possibilities (is chat really the best thing they could come up with?) it remains to be seen how much difference it will really make.

One voice of caution was that of senior analyst at NPD, Russ Crupnick. He pointed out the increased competition faced by Blu-ray from video games, and the Wii in particular. There are people whod be spending time with movies on a Saturday night who are now spending it with their game consoles, said Crupnick.

And of course all the talk in the world about the reasons for HDTV owners to buy into Blu-ray ignores the elephant in the room that is HDTV adoption. There's a reason that MacPherson is still predicting 38% of sales belonging to regular DVD as far out as 2015. In order for consumers to even care about Blu-ray they almost have to have a HDTV, For many of those who haven't bought their first one yet they're still priced out of reach.

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12 user comments

117.6.2008 8:21

Quote:
North America predicted that by 2015 Blu-ray will account for 56% of entertainment sales
Not until the prices for the players come down to a more reasonable level. Oh, and the movies are a wee-bit pricey as well.

I think that number may be a little high.

217.6.2008 8:39

At the price blu-ray players are dropping i could see that. Remember when it first came out and it was like over $1000? And the price of the movies are lowering. I've seen alot of new recent blu-ray movies at walmart for only 18$. Sure it can be like $3 more then the dvd version but its worth it for its HD features.

317.6.2008 10:42
nobrainer
Inactive

I will never own one of these propertarian, crippled by DRM players, i will download or continue to purchase dvd until they stop being anti-consumer or i will not purchase it ever again, being content with a book.

what's the end goal of pushing this crapware on us all, other than global price fixing by making multi region dvd players illegal, regaining the monopoly on distribution again?


Hollywood wants to infect all next-gen video with DRM

Originally posted by hyper:
The Electronic Frontier Foundation's Fred von Lohmann sez, "The LA Times' Jon Healey does a brilliant job explaining why the MPAA's petition at the FCC to enable SOC ('selectable output control,' i.e. turning off your cable box analog video connections, leaving you with only DRM-restricted digital connections) is really a trojan horse aimed at DRMing the future of all next-gen video."

So if Hollywood restricts high-def releases of movies to the new early-release window, Blu-ray discs and downloadable files, it could make SOC the rule, not the exception -- at least until the films reach HBO and broadcast TV.
Secret super-copyright treaty MEMO leaked
Originally posted by hyper:
Wikileaks has the full text of a memo concerning the dread Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, a draft treaty that does away with those pesky public trade-negotiations at the United Nations (with participation from citizens' groups and public interest groups) in favor of secret, closed-door meetings where entertainment industry giants get to give marching orders to governments in private.

It's some pretty crazy reading -- among other things, ACTA will outlaw P2P (even when used to share works that are legally available, like my books), and crack down on things like region-free DVD players. All of this is taking place out of the public eye, presumably with the intention of presenting it as a fait accompli just as the ink is drying on the treaty.

Honestly, it's becoming clearer and clearer that the entertainment industry is an existential threat to the idea of free speech, open tools, and an open communications network.

Who is really behind ACTA? Follow the money:

Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA)[4]

Top four campaign contributions for 2006:
Time Warner $21,000
News Corp $15,000
Sony Corp of America $14,000
Walt Disney Co $13,550


Top two Industries:
TV/Movies/Music $181,050
Lawyers/Law Firms $114,200

Other politicians listed also show significant contributions from IP industries.


This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 17 Jun 2008 @ 10:50

417.6.2008 10:48

Blu-ray is taking off faster than DVD did in the EU

Quote:
Focusing on like-for-like coverage of Western Europe and comparing the first few years of uptake, the early indications are that BD player sales are running way ahead of DVD after the same time period. 2008 represents year 3 for BD and here at Futuresource Consulting, we anticipate more than 10 million players, including PS3, in use by the end of this year. Looking back to DVD's early years, we see that closer to 1.5 million DVD players were installed by the end of year 3.

Looking forward, as the attached Futuresource analysis shows, BD installations are projected to continue to run significantly ahead of DVD. The timing of the PS3 launch has clearly provided a big boost to the initial uptake of BD; with a number of hot games titles now starting to emerge and console prices continuing to fall we can expect to see continued strong uptake.

Also important is the competitive retail environment, with high street names vying for market share in BD video player sales. This is continuing to encourage player prices downwards and is keeping the product in the public eye. As we move towards Q4 we expect this to really intensify.

Longer term, as player prices continue to fall, title availability grows and awareness increases, BD players will become the product of choice given the fact that they also play DVD and CD media and there will come a time when the branded suppliers focus on this higher capacity drive, mirroring the trend we saw with DVD players replacing CD decks."

517.6.2008 11:14

They're living in Disneyland.

617.6.2008 11:36

Quote:
There's a reason that MacPherson is still predicting 38% of sales belonging to regular DVD as far out as 2015.
That's a big drop from the >90% that DVD is enjoying today.

Quote:
In order for consumers to even care about Blu-ray they almost have to have a HDTV, For many of those who haven't bought their first one yet they're still priced out of reach.
By 2015 I don't think anyone will still be manufacturing standard def TV's. Flat panel HD displays will likely be more affordable by then with 32" 1080p models reaching sub-$500 levels. With current trends we'll also see sub-$100 BluRay players and sub-$15 discs on a regular basis with catalog titles in bargain bins.
This message has been edited since its posting. Latest edit was made on 17 Jun 2008 @ 11:42

717.6.2008 12:18

Quote:
By 2015 I don't think anyone will still be manufacturing standard def TV's. Flat panel HD displays will likely be more affordable by then with 32" 1080p models reaching sub-$500 levels. With current trends we'll also see sub-$100 BluRay players and sub-$15 discs on a regular basis with catalog titles in bargain bins.
True, but consider how many people will STILL have SDTV's. They are only looking about 7 years into the future on this one, and I would think they should capture more of the market than that. Of course, when given the option between a $15 DVD today and an $18 Blu-Ray disc, people will still go with the cheaper and more adopted method.

Remember DVD-Audio and SA-CD were unable to supplant CD's. It took the arrival of the iPod to change the landscape for music, and I suppose with the leaps and bounds of storage media, we could see the same thing happen with movies within the next 7 years. Apple is already making dents in the movie industry with the iPod and Apple TV.

817.6.2008 12:46

Originally posted by SProdigy:
True, but consider how many people will STILL have SDTV's.
True but how many of those SDTV's will still be in good working condition or would be worth repairing (if they're still under warranty). Those looking to replace their SD sets would definitely look at HD-capable displays.

Quote:
They are only looking about 7 years into the future on this one, and I would think they should capture more of the market than that.
I think overtaking DVD at any point in time would be an accomplishment in itself.

917.6.2008 14:12

Originally posted by mspurloc:
They're living in Disneyland.


I believe you ment Fantasyland.

1017.6.2008 14:13

"I think overtaking DVD at any point in time would be an accomplishment in itself."

AMEN!
People already see that this is outdated technology. Blu Ray is not being adopted because people don't see the point. DVD has market penetration because people like the format, and most think it's good enough as is. Even many of those like me, who appreciate better quality, aren't going with BR EVER because even if they get around to fixing the many, many problems with the format, it's going to be even more riddled with DRM than it already is.

So Sony and partners, either drop the prices NOW, or face the fact that by the projected date, your format will still not have caught on and never will in time. Lose a little, gain a lot, or risk nothing and lose everything.

1117.6.2008 18:17

This may be a bit "out there" but I don't think the blue-ray "format" will ever become the industry standard like the DVD "format" has. Mainly because I think hard drive players will outpace the optical players significantly and will eventually become ubiquitous. With a HD player there will be no such "format" limitations and the "standard" will end up being defined by the end user much like MP3 has.
Consider an HD player capable of ripping, converting and storing a BR disk. Sure, movies will be released on BR but downloads, legit or not will become much more mainstream. The BR disk will be the thing that your buddy buys and loans to all of his friends. Eventually the format limitations will kill it. Rippers will figure out how to remove any DRM quite quickly and the HD player will be the console of choice.
This is already becomming normal with DVD. I have a DVD player which I haven't used in ages. I store all my video on a HD and play all movies from a computer based software program. This setup cost only about $300, hardware and software complete. Sure, I built it as a hobbiest but it won't be long before someone builds that "killer app" that makes this type of thing easy enough for the casual user in a set top box configuration.

Optical Media is not going to be around for much longer and I'm afraid that Blue Ray is the straw that is going to break the camels back.

But that is just my opinion...

1218.6.2008 4:23

Quote:
Originally posted by mspurloc:
They're living in Disneyland.


I believe you ment Fantasyland.

@iluvendo
I think you missed the joke on that one.


AS for the "industry insiders" I think most of those people don't know their a** from a hole in the ground. OR maybe they do look at all the poo they keep putting out, DRM, Broadcast flags, horrible movies, more horrible movies, once in a blue moon good movie, more horrible movies, etc, etc, etc.

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