|
|
|
5 September 2008 14:31 by Andre "DVDBack23" Yoskowitz
| 89 comments
According to an interview posted on Pocket-lint.co.uk, Samsung believes that the Blu-ray format will only have a 5 year life span from this point out before it is replaced by either HD downloads or a completely different physical media format.
"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics for Samsung UK said in the interview. The 10 years mark is what Sony has committed to its Blu-ray playing PlayStation 3 console.
Griffiths does believe however that Blu-ray can be huge over the next year, and that 2008 is just the start.
"It's going to be huge", he added. "We are heavily back-ordered at the moment."
Griffiths cited cheaper prices for players and titles, as well as the format's victory over HD DVD as reasons why the format will be a winner, if only for a short period of time.
"In 2012 we will be in a true HD world. Everything from your television to your camcorder will be offering you pictures in high-definition, and we plan to offer you that HD world from all angles."
Permalink to this article
| Topics: Blu-ray HD DVD
| |
Related articles:
Samsung tops U.S. cellphone market (8 November 2008)
Memorex releases sub-$300 USD Blu-ray player (18 September 2008)
New Divx Certified Blu-ray chip introduced by Broadcom (16 September 2008)
'Better than Blu' HD format coming from Sim2 (14 September 2008)
Xbox 360 outsells PS3 during August in the US (12 September 2008)
Xbox 360 sees price cut in the US (7 September 2008)
North American LCD TV sales up 50 percent for Q2 (16 August 2008)
Apple will fix iPhone 3G problems with software update (16 August 2008)
PC vendors seek reduction in Blu-ray drive ODM/OEM quotes (16 August 2008)
Nokia makes OLED production mandatory for panel suppliers (14 August 2008)
RIM sees huge US sales growth in mobile phone market (11 August 2008)
LCD sales increase aided by sales force bias (25 July 2008)
|
|
|
| Discuss this article! |
There are more user comments available, read them here |
| error5 (Senior Member) 13 September 2008 8:47 |
|
Originally posted by ematrix:
Whatever error5, your comments only confirms what I have been saying, not only you're disrespectful to others, you'll do whatever you can to disregard anything else that threathens your worshipped Blu-ray.
Show me exactly where we were disrespectful to you as a person.
All we did was disagree with your comments. This is a place for public discussion. If you cannot stand the fact that someone else has viewpoints that differ from yours then I suggest that you don't post at all.
We have put forward a dissenting opinion supported by links, marketing data and actual dollar sales figures. All you have done is make blanket statements that have no basis in fact. At least post some links that support your contention that "in a few years all optical discs will have a hard time existing" and that "discs are a dying media."
Quote:
I have no need to make predictions, when I'm only indicating the obvious, which the big BD supporters are beginning to admit, that BD is a hard cookie to sell, and it won't be around as much as you wish for; not like those hilarious Sony "predictions" that BD will outcome DVD by 2009-2012, when we're now by the end of 2008, and BD presence in US in minimal, and insignificant globally... 3 years to reach global mass market? It's not possible.
You obviously don't have any experience in the corporate/marketing world. Large corporations always rely on marketing trends and predictions to help guide their strategy. They pay big bucks to marketing analysts to come up with studies that show trends for the future.
No one disagrees with the fact that BluRay is a hard sell but as you paint a gloomy picture, others prefer to look to the future with optimism. You are already writing off the format but others prefer to think otherwise.
Oh BTW here's another link:
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/...hp?startid=2#/4
Week ending 9/7/08 - Top 20 titles:
DVD = 88% - Total Sales down 10.56%
BluRay = 12% - Total Sales UP 16.28% thanks to Transformers.
The 4th quarter should show more of the same as the summer blockbusters get released and special pricing deals crop up.
Quote:
Yet at least i don't have to resort to cinism or inmature comments to defend myself, neither i'm not stubborn like to you to not recognize the big picture of global market consumption, present and future possibilities, and the trend they follow. I have done more than enough to explain myself and my view in the matter, and I know others feel and think the same as I do, if you can't accept nor respect it, too bad for you.
Well welcome to the world of internet discussion groups - where feelings can and do get hurt. LOL! If you're too sensitive to see anyone disagree with you in a condescending way then don't post at all. Remember, we don't know you personally so nothing is personal. We don't dislike or disrespect you as a person. We just disagree with your point of view and we can express our disagreement within the rules of the forum.
It's a fact of life that there's always someone out there who will have a differing opinion from you. The important thing to remember is that in a free country he has the right to express his opinion no matter how much it irritates you. If you're too stubborn to accept that then too bad for you.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13 September 2008 8:56
|
| ematrix (Junior Member) 13 September 2008 19:14 |
|
Of course you have every right to disagree with my viewpoint, but if you can't stand that others don't share your oppinion, that you must be disrespectful when you take other comments and mannipulate them at your convenience, which you have done repeatelly, and when you aren't able to repute something, you resort to cinism and inmature comments in order to disregard it, then by all means don't post at all.
Indeed you have put forward a dissenting opinion supported by links, marketing data and actual dollar sales figures. But the source and intent of such figures is 100% inquestionable? Should we rely on them blindly? As I said before, the numbers that matter is how many DVD and BD discs are sold, not how much consumers spent on them, because consumers spent slighty, even largely more, on BD movies than they do on DVD movies, therefore those numbers are misleading... but let's play it your way.
You're the one that obviously don't want to believe that big corporations like Sony, is paying bic bucks to tech and marketing analysts to come up with studies and predictions that show misleading trends for a bright and positive BD future, in order to mislead consumers that they should support BD and should buy it now.
As for "in a few years all optical discs will have a hard time existing" and that "discs are a dying media." even you can't deny that non-optical disc media are rising and more consumers everyday are buying them, even more than BD, and that they have the potencial of being use to deliver movies in the future, but if you have a hard time accepting this, read this...
Quote:
SanDisk took the top spot among global vendors in the $11.5 billion memory card and USB flash drive (UFD) market last year, according to DRAMeXchange.
SanDisk posted $2.93 billion in sales, followed by Sony with $1.73 billion. Coming in third at $1.13 billion is Kingston. U.S. channel brand PNY took the fourth place with $715 million sales. Moreover, Taiwan's Transcend secured the top-five position with sales of $619 million.
Top players
DRAMeXchange analysts indicate that SanDisk, with the capacity backup from the Toshiba JV, recorded shipments of its microSD card soared by 128 percent y-on-y in fiscal year 2007, generating an equivalent sales of $1.4 billion. The firm also achieved a good sales record of $1 billion in SD and CF card markets—the two market segments mainly dominated by digital camera. In the UFD market, SanDisk hit a 54 percent y-on-y shipment growth, generating sales of $500 million. SanDisk successfully took the lead in both memory card and UFD markets in terms of sales in FY07.
Sony is known to create its proprietary memory card standard, Memory Stick, for its own-brand Cyber-shot cameras and Sony Ericsson handsets. Owing to its foothold in respective segments (Cyber-shot ranks second and SonyEricsson ranks as top five), it generated a sales amount of over $1.7 billion from both Memory Stick and UFD on a relative high ASP than other memory card/UFD.
According to the report, number one DRAM module maker Kingston uses its established global connections to foster its NAND flash memory sales over recent years. Its sales scale of over $500 million in UFD market in 2007 has allowed it to reach a level similar to SanDisk.
DRAMeXchange analysts also indicates that being one of the top five memory card and UFD makers in 2007, Transcend was the only player from Taiwan. Its year-long strategic deployment and channeling in branded sales allowed the synergy of brandname to start emerging since 2006. This emergence is evident in its growing market share in Europe, India and China. By including its success sales record from Japan, it achieved a sales amount of $619 million from memory card and UFD in 2007.
According to the memory card and UFD sales from the above vendors, SanDisk, Kingston and PNY are the three top players. Sony also takes a heavy role in the market, not only because of its proprietary memory card standard, but also its influence in both digital camera and handset markets.
As for Taiwan vendors, DRAMeXchange analysts believe that their influence is set to grow further amid the aggressive deployments in emerging markets and channels over the next few years.
http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800522918_499486_NT_7b64b5b2.HTM
From figures provided by the Hollywood-based trade group DEG with input from all major motion picture studios...
- Consumers spent $375 million worldwide on BD and HD-DVD movies during 2007, from which U.S. consumers alone spent $260 million on high definition discs, while consumers in the rest of the world spent $115 million on HD discs.
- Consumers spent close to $50 billion worldwide on DVD movies during 2007, from which U.S. consumers alone spent $23.4 billion on DVD discs, while consumers in the rest of the world spent $26 billion on DVD discs.
My point is that who shows today grander potencial and preferrence among consumers, not only as media for storing information, but as possible means to deliver movies in the following years... BD, who's strugeling to reach $1 billion spending worldwide annually, or memory cards and USB flash drives (UFD) how are already a $10 billion worldwide industry annually, and whose consumption is rising among consumers everyday.
You can argue about memory cards and USB flash drives (UFD) current capacities and prices against BD discs, and I'm not going to dispute that, but regardless of that, people are consuming them more than BD discs, and that capacities will be larger and prices will be lower, to suit the needs and accesability that any J6P requires, even you can't deny that memory cards and USB flash drives (UFD) are showing a more promising future than BD discs.
Oh BTW if you're going to put some link, at least be fair enough to present the hole picture and not choose what's convenient to you, in order to mislead others to believe that BD is doing well, when it's not... because when you're choosing to put just one week for DVD/BD sales, but neglect to mention which has the case in all previous weeks, that's misleading; just for example:
For the week ending 31st August 2008, here are the stats:
Percentage of Top 20 titles by volume:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 6% vs 94%
All sales by volume (Percentage of Total Sales):
Blu-ray sales up 28.94% compared to last week, total spending in the week: $9.11 million (6.83%)
DVD sales up 3.18% compared to last week, total spending in the week: $124.23 million (93.17%)
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=1
It's I how is LOL! If you can't stand that others differ to your viewpoint, and stubborn enough to recognize other prefferences and possibilities, in order to act like you have been doing, then by all means don't post at all.
Everybody has the right to invest their time and money in what they feel suits best their needs; if you feel that BD works for you, good for you and I respect that, if I feel that DVD works for me and choose to wait for something else in the future, good for me and accept that, rather than insist I must buy BD just because you and big cows like Sony say we should.
Becuase it's lame that you must resort to cinism and misleading information, in order to make a claim that's not 100% irrefutable. I'm not saying you shouldn't be true to your believes, for sure I am, but at least try to be respectful and fair to other's oppinions, even recognize when there's truth and validity in their claims, I for one have tried my best to do so, but when you conveniently distort and manipulate information and oppinions, that's a cheap way to state your claims.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13 September 2008 19:18
|
| DXR88 (Member) 13 September 2008 20:11 |
|
|
Yawn...Still arguing god, ya could give it a rest.
|
| varnull (AfterDawn Addict) 13 September 2008 20:41 |
|
Always happens when the paid trolls meet their match I'm afraid.
Some nice figures there from ematrix.. supporting what we have been saying all along.. the spinning disk, like the elcasette and the umd are end date technology which will be replaced as prices of other non optical media falls.
..funny comment. the first pc I had with a cd-rom drive only had a 120MB hdd which cost £690 to get another to double the hdd space. I was employed in a hi-fi shop when the first cd players were released.. at £1200 we sold none, (that was about half what I earned in a year) and they didn't sound any better than the existing technology at half the price... the dvd didn't kill off the vcr until the dvd recorder became a viable alternative. You may not be able to buy new films on tape, but you can still buy blank tapes.. and as for vinyl records..those big extinct black plastic things.. have a look in HMV sometime ;)
Blu is like dvd-audio.. niche market for the gadget heads with money to burn who just have to have everything. Same went for cd for at least the first 5 years if not more. It was some time in the 90's that things stopped being released on both formats. More then 10 years to get the market penetration required to make it not economic suicide to release on one format only.
Free open source software = made by end users who want an application to work. sig nazis beware.. Im coming to get you
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13 September 2008 20:42
|
| error5 (Senior Member) 13 September 2008 21:38 |
|
For each article you quote there's another that I can quote too:
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/columns/going-blu-suburbia-13354
Quote:
A study from ABI Research found 75% of respondents planned on buying a Blu-ray player by 2009.
Also, an In-Stat survey reiterated the pull of packaged media, with more than half of respondents saying they preferred hard goods when buying movies or TV shows. Even younger viewers in the study preferred packaged media, with its cover art and extras.
“That bodes well for Blu-ray,” In-Stat analyst Gerry Kaufhold said.
Blu-ray disc unit sales in the first half of 2008 were up 340% from the first six months of 2007, according to Nielsen VideoScan data. And, looking at our weekly numbers since then, Blu-ray seems to be gaining momentum on a week-by-week basis as well.
Driving to work this week, I heard a commercial for Dish Network's “TurboHD,” which touted 1080p resolution “as good as Blu-ray.” That's not a bad thing. When big competitors start comparing themselves to Blu-ray, you know it's on its way to success.
When BluRay can sell $9 - 10 million each week during the 1st 3 quarters they should easily pass their goal of $750 million to $1 billion this year. This is true since 50% or more of disc sales usually happen during the 4th quarter as this is the time when the summer blockbusters are released and special holiday pricing deals kick in.
It's illogical to compare the flash memory market to BD since they're two totally different things. One is a movie distribution medium and the other is used for computer data storage, digital cameras, etc. Get back to me when movies are distributed on flash.
Non optical media could be viable in the future but people will not just abandon their disc players that easily. For example, set-top boxes that play flash media (especially if you want 2160p) will come at premium. If you're looking at PC based playback then don't expect J6P to instantly jump on the bandwagon since now everyone has the tech savvy to connect their PC to their television. J6P will want something as simple as (1) insert in the media then (2) press play.
The infrastructure for disc replication is already there. OTOH they will have to find a way to manufacture 30 - 50 Gig flash memory cheaply and find a way to transfer that much data to each and every unit in a timely manner. A disc replicator can manufacture 1 SD DVD in 2 seconds and 1 BD disc in 6 seconds. Do you know how long it takes to transfer 30 to 50 Gigs of data to a memory card?
Finally, I think the main obstacle for non optical media is the content provider. Good luck trying to convince the movie studios to abandon a $24 billion a year industry and invest in new technology. |
| juankerr (Member) 13 September 2008 22:01 |
|
This is the reason why Samsung is is looking forward to non-optical media:
They're trying to buy Sandisk.
Quote:
The world's largest maker of flash memory cards for digital cameras jumped 31 percent, or 4.18 points, Friday on rumors that Samsung would buy the company.
This follows a recent spate of rumors including one that said Seagate was interested in SanDisk. While Samsung already makes flash memory and is a leader in the emerging solid state drive market, Seagate does not sell SSDs and is looking to get into the market.
Samsung doesn't need SanDisk to grow; the South Korean company is already the world's largest supplier of flash memory chips, with Toshiba a distant second.
-------------
Originally posted by error5:
Do you know how long it takes to transfer 30 to 50 Gigs of data to a memory card?
Come on error5. Don't you realize that 2160p would probably require twice that amount of storage?
Originally posted by error5:
This is true since 50% or more of disc sales usually happen during the 4th quarter as this is the time when the summer blockbusters are released and special holiday pricing deals kick in.
I thought the number from Kosty was 60% of total sales in Q4. Anyway, I think Ironman and TDK should push the numbers close to and even above 12% BD share.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13 September 2008 22:28
|
| dblbogey7 (Senior Member) 14 September 2008 0:21 |
|
Originally posted by juankerr:
I think Ironman and TDK should push the numbers close to and even above 12% BD share.
error5 & juankerr: I think the picture is more complicated than just the weekly percentages given by Nielsen.
Consider this: The profit margin for DVD is about $7 - $10 per unit while the profit margin for BD is roughly $14 - $20 per unit. So in terms of revenue, BD could overtake DVD when it reaches 34 to 35 percent of sales - not 51%.
BD could actually be more profitable even if it's being outsold by DVD 2:1.
Guess what number the studios are actually looking at: numbers sold or actual dollar revenue.
Granted, there are other factors to consider such as the declining costs of BD authoring and replication but you do get my point, right? It's just more complicated than just weekly head to head numbers.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14 September 2008 0:22
|
| DXR88 (Member) 14 September 2008 1:41 |
|
Originally posted by varnull:
Always happens when the paid trolls meet their match I'm afraid.
Some nice figures there from ematrix.. supporting what we have been saying all along.. the spinning disk, like the elcasette and the umd are end date technology which will be replaced as prices of other non optical media falls.
..funny comment. the first pc I had with a cd-rom drive only had a 120MB hdd which cost £690 to get another to double the hdd space. I was employed in a hi-fi shop when the first cd players were released.. at £1200 we sold none, (that was about half what I earned in a year) and they didn't sound any better than the existing technology at half the price... the dvd didn't kill off the vcr until the dvd recorder became a viable alternative. You may not be able to buy new films on tape, but you can still buy blank tapes.. and as for vinyl records..those big extinct black plastic things.. have a look in HMV sometime ;)
Blu is like dvd-audio.. niche market for the gadget heads with money to burn who just have to have everything. Same went for cd for at least the first 5 years if not more. It was some time in the 90's that things stopped being released on both formats. More then 10 years to get the market penetration required to make it not economic suicide to release on one format only.
b-b-but i like my spinney disk thing, with a class 2 type laser that may blind you if you stare directly into it...
granted Disc technology will eventually die just like tape based medium did, but not now not even 10 years from now. its a niche that will keep spinning and cause radiation hazards for many years to come |
| ematrix (Junior Member) 14 September 2008 10:18 |
|
First of all, thanks varnull. I know they're others than share my viewpoint, yet I appreciate your comments and I completely agree with you, and certanly helps to show that I'm not the only that feels and thinks this way, thanks.
error5, you're the one that asked me to support my viewpoint, but when i do so, you inmediatelly rush to disregard it, and worst of all with a doubtful study... doesn't that confirms what I have been saying? I want to believe that people are smarter to believe blindly on a study of doubtful origin and results, at least I'm; unless you can provide solid proof of the validity of such study, then is misleading and manipulative... or do you still believe that BD will outcome DVD by 2009, like alleged "studies" claimed a while ago?
How can you compare BD, even if it reaches $1 billion spending in US, or $1.5 billion worldwide this year, when DVD reaches $20 billion spending in USA, or $50 billion worldwide. Yet when the memory cards and USB flash drives market is already a $10 billion worldwide industry annually, and still rising, it's not that farfedge that they could be potencially used to deliver movies.
If the past years have showed us, is the movie studios is beginning to learn, the hard way in most cases, that they better explore other possibilities; that's why they're supporting online movie stores like iTunes, adding Digital Copies to DVD and BD releases, etc. I don't think will be long before they notice a growing $10 billion a year worldwide memory cards and USB flash drives industry.
As others and I have pointed out, optical discs will eventually die, not now of course, but it's possible that in 5-10 years will happen, the reasons and circunstances why this will happen have been explained before. DVD has nothing to worry about, it has been with us for 11 years and will continue to be around while it's possible; on the contrary BD is the one that has a lot to worry about.
Regardless of our differences in the past, I'm respectful and fair enough to recognize some validity and truth in part of your past comments... I won't deny that at this moment there aren't movies distributed on USB flash cards, but at least there's the possibility that could change in a few years, specially with present global market trends.
I'm not denying that a set-top box that plays USB flash media will be expensive at first, but such scenario will be no different from the one early adopters endured while purchasing BD players. Also be sure that they will make playing movies from USB flash media as easily as plug and play, so that any J6P can handle.
Also let me ratify that my expectancies for 2160p is that most likely USB flash media or other non-optical disc media will be used to deliver movies at such resolution, not because I personally preffer 2160p over 1080p... I just don't share your same interest in spending my money on another optical disc.
Also in the following years, not only the costs to manufacture large USB flash media will be much cheaper and faster than they're now, but their GB capacities will be grander, and their transfer data rate will be faster as well, which will widen the possibility that they could be used to deliver movies commercially... just consider that in 2 years, they went for 4-8 GB to 32-64 GB capacities.
I agree that the picture is more complicated than just the weekly percentages given by Nielsen or HMR, after all they only reflect how much people spent each week on discs, where BD percentages have been fluctuating from 5% to 8% weekly, but they don't reflect how many DVD and BD discs were sold, which is the number that should matter to us.
If you analyse closer the latest numbers provided by Nielsen and HMR, you'll notice that as for consumers spending on discs last week, indeed Blu-ray reached 12% of the Top 20 titles, but as for total disc sales (including of course the Top 20 titles) it actually reached 8.71% of total consumers spending in the same week (only 1.88% increase from the previous week)
If you consider that DVD movies, despite rebates and discounts, are in most cases slighty to largely cheaper than BD movies, specially when it comes to catalog titles, then the weekly percentages provided by Nielsen and HMR are inacurate, as they only provide how much consumers spent of BD and DVD discs, not how many BD and DVD discs consumers actually bought nor how much they spent on each disc.
It's like saying that 10 guys go in a store, 9 of them buys a $10 DVD movie each, while 1 buys one $20 BD movie; at the end of the day BD will account for 10% of total discs sold, but will claim that accounts for 18.18% of total consumer spending. Both figures are correct, but this is a simple example of how percentages could easily mislead you.
Therefore it may be possible that the actual percentage of BD discs sold weekly, could be actually lower than the percentage provided by Nielsen and HMR on consumer spending for BD discs... and I enphasize it may possible, because they aren't providing all the information; in the contrary if they did, then we could know exactly how BD is doing against DVD, even an average spending of each BD and DVD disc.
Remember: "Numbers don't lie. The people that manipulates them does"
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14 September 2008 11:00
|
| juankerr (Member) 14 September 2008 10:55 |
|
Originally posted by ematrix:
error5, first of all you're the one that asked me to support my viewpoint with solid proof, but when i do so, you inmediatelly rush to disregard it, and worst of all with a sponsored study... doesn't that confirms what I have been saying?
You obviously didn't get the point. For one study that says one thing - there's another can say the exact opposite. Plus - all studies are sponsored one way or another. Peeople pay to get the studies done or they pay to get copies of the study results. No one does studies for free.
Quote:
I want to believe that people are smarter to believe blindly on a study of doubtful origin and results, at least I'm; unless you can provide solid proof of the validity of such study, then is misleading and manipulative... or do you still believe that BD will outcome DVD by 2009, like they claimed a while ago?
The studies are out there. You can choose to believe them or don't. BTW, stop misquoting: No one said that Bluray will outsell (not outcome) DVD by 2009. Every study that i've seen so far has predicted good things for Bluray and will achieve parity by 2011 to 2012 in terms of revenue - like this one from futuresource.com:
http://www.arcadiasbest.com/files/u1/2008-08_DVD-v-Blu-ray.jpg
Quote:
Yet when the memory cards and USB flash drives market is already a $10 billion worldwide industry annually, and still rising, it's not that farfedge that they potencially could be used to deliver movies.
Show me a business or technological model that makes it profitable to distribute a 30 to 50 GB movie on a 30 - 50 gig flash drive/card. Until then all this is vaporware. (Sorry to correct your spelling but it's "farfetched" not "farfedge.")
Quote:
As others and I have pointed out, optical discs will eventually die, not now of course, but it's possible that in 5-10 years will happen, the reasons and circunstances why this will happen have been explained before, even with proof to support it.
I didn't see the proof that discs are going to die out in 5 to 10 years. Please post the proof agaain.
Quote:
DVD has nothing to worry about, it has been with us for 11 years and will continue to be around while it's possible; on the contrary BD is the one that has a lot to worry about.
Sorry but if you're talking about the demise of the disc then you'll have to include DVD as well. If you're looking at non-optical media then you have to include both in the equation. remember that optical media a $24 billion a year industry and is deeply entrenched in the consumer psyche.
Quote:
just consider that in 2 years, they went for 4-8 GB to 32-64 GB capacities.
Look at the prices though. The cheapest 16GB SDHC card I could find was about $50. if you're talking about 2160p video you'll probably need anywhere from 75 to 100 GB per movie.
Like I said - show me a technological model that makes it profitable to distribute a 2160p movie on a 75GB flash drive. Otherwise it's all vaporware at this time.
Quote:
I agree that the picture is more complicated than just the weekly percentages given by Nielsen or HMR, after all they only reflect how much people spent each week on discs, where BD percentages have been fluctuating from 5% to 8% weekly, but they don't reflect how many DVD and BD discs were sold, which is the number that should matter to us.
If you want actual number of movies sold then go to the-numbers.com. You can make calculations from them baased on the Nielsens.
However, the actual numbers sold isn't what matters to the studios distributing the movies. It's how much they make. Like dblbogey7 pointed out - even if Bluray sold only 35 percent of the volume of DVD's they could still be more profitable due to the higher margin per disc. That's what matters to those who release the movies.
Quote:
If you analyse closer the latest numbers provided by Nielsen and HMR, you'll notice that as for consumers spending on discs last week, indeed Blu-ray reached 12% of the Top 20 titles, but as for total disc sales (including of course the Top 20 titles) it actually reached 8.71% of total consumers spending in the same week (only 1.88% increase from the previous week)
Still this is a 340 percent increase from last year's 1st 6 months. That type of growth never goes unnoticed by those in the industry.
Quote:
If you consider that DVD movies, despite rebates and discounts, are in most cases slighty to largely cheaper than BD movies, specially when it comes to catalog titles, then the weekly percentages provided by Nielsen and HMR are inacurate, as they only provide how much consumers spent of BD and DVD discs, not how many BD and DVD discs consumers actually bought.
Like I said - what matters to the industry and to the longevity of a format is the dollar amount made. If a format doesn't make money then it's doomed. If it continues to make money like BD then you can expect it to survive.
The DVD market is at the point of saturation. Why do you think we see $5 bargain bins at Walmart?
Quote:
It's like saying that 10 guys go in a store, 9 of them buys a $10 DVD movie each, while 1 buys one $20 BD movie; at the end of the day BD will account for 10% of total discs sold, but will claim that accounts for 18.18% of total consumer spending. Both figures are correct, but this is a simple example of how percentages could easily mislead you.
It's not misleading. Like I said it's the dollar amount that matters to the industry - not the number of units sold. DVD is a lower profit margin product so the industry looks to BD.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14 September 2008 10:59
|
| ematrix (Junior Member) 14 September 2008 13:05 |
|
I provided a real marketing study that shows actual numbers for memory cards and USB flash drives, yet you want to repute that with a survey with alleged consumer prefferences of doubtful origin and results? Damn right I choose not to believe.
So now I'm misquoting? Didn't Mr. Frank Simonis, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, made the absurd claim early 2007, that by the end of 2009, the BDA planned to have BD replacing DVD entirely, and I quote "Within three years it will just be Blu-ray"? Hell, it was widely discussed here at the forum.
Come on, a lot of people read and LOL about it, I mean sure looks you could use some laughs. Yet I don't like people insinuating that I'm lying. By the way, you don't like misquoting? Then why the hell you do it? You guys have been misquoting me all along at your convenience.
So now you know that BD can't outsell DVD by the number of discs each sells, you want to rely on sales revenue in order to do so... how do think that's good for consumers? Because either to achieve high revenues from BD, they must keep prices high, or they lower them to rival those for DVD, which will result in lower revenues and slower growth; also how do they expect to profit higher from BD, which costs more to manufacture than DVD?
But so far BD isn't making a lot of money, maybe this will change in a few years, but also if you believe that growing markets never goes unnoticed by those in the industry, I'm sure that they'll eventually notice the growing $10 billion memory card and USB flash media industry; for BD's sake, he better grow fast before they do.
Funny that you reffer to DVD as lower profit margin product when is the $24 billion a year industry by itself, BD hasn't earned yet the right to call itself a billion dollar industry, nor it's deeply entrenched in the consumer psyche; and yes, both discs have been included in the demise of optical discs, the difference is that when this happens, DVD would have lived long enough and achieved all its goals, BD will fall short on both.
However, as for how much they make from discs sold what matters to the studios distributing the movies... why should we care? When did we became the devil's advocates to look out what's best for the movie studios? Do they always have the consumer in their best interest? Tell that to those HD-DVD's early adopters. Tell that to those how pay a highly anticipated film that turns out to be a crappy movie.
As for the rest, by all means read what I said instead of rushing to reply, I specifically said future possibilities, and yes in a few years it's going to be possible and profitable for movie studios to deliver movies on non-optical disc media.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14 September 2008 13:50
|
| juankerr (Member) 14 September 2008 13:44 |
|
Originally posted by ematrix:
I provided a real marketing study that shows actual numbers for memory cards and USB flash drives, yet you want to repute that with a survey with alleged consumer prefferences of doubtful origin and results? Damn right I choose not to believe.
Like I said it's illogical to show a marketing study on flash drives since they aren't used for movie distribution. I repeat, show me the technological and business model that says 2160p HD movies at 75 GB or more are feasible to distribute thru flash media. You have failed to do so since it's what we call vaporware.
Quote:
So now I'm misquoting? Didn't they made the absurd prediction months ago, allegedly based in a study, that BD will outsell DVD by 2009? Come on, a lot of people read and LOL about it, I mean sure looks you could use some laughs.
On the contrary, the expectations we have been reading lately are quite within reach. By the end of 2008 they expect a 7 - 8% market share with $750M to $1B revenue. Just right on target don't you think?
Quote:
So now you know that BD can't outsell DVD by the number of discs each sells, you want to rely on sales revenue in order to do so... how do think that's good for consumers?
I have bad news for you ematrix. It doesn't matter if it's good for the consumer or not. What matters in the business world is profit and right now DVD is a low profit margin product compared to BD.
Quote:
I'm sure that they'll eventually notice the growing $10 billion memory card and USB flash media industry; for BD's sake, he better grow fast before they do.
So who do you think will be the one's developing the playback machines for these flash media?
It's the same usual suspects: Sony, Panasonic/Matsushita, Pioneer, Philips, Toshiba, Samsung etc. These are companies that already have a stake in optical discs.
Plus, who do you think will be providing the content for these flash movies?
It's the same usual gang of movie studios that right now are making money off discs.
They will need initial R&D and later new manufacturing infrastructure just to implement a new format meaning billions in initial outlay which needs to be recouped. Then comes marketing the new format to the public - a consumer market that has discs already deeply entrenched as a movie medium.
Bottom line, they will have to convince the general public to abandon discs in favor of some other non-optical media. The first players will probably have the high-end pricing that we see today - $1000 or more. This movies will need capacities of 75 GB or more and will likely cost at least $40 to $50 a title. Plus the 2160p/2K/4K displays needed to take advantage of these movies will also have high-end pricing - >$10,000 or more depending on size.
By the time these prices come down to J6P levels you will already see full-featured BD players for $50 or less, bargain bin BD movies for $5 and larger 1080p HDTV's at $500 or less.
Any new non-optical format will have an enormous task ahead of it.
Quote:
Funny that you reffer to DVD as lower profit margin product when is the $24 billion a year industry by itself, BD hasn't earned yet the right to call itself a billion dollar industry, nor it's deeply entrenched in the consumer psyche
Yes, it's a $24 billion industry that will not just vanish just because some of you think that discs are on their way out.
If BD can make it's projected revenue of $750 to $1B this year then I think it could be rightfully called a billion dollar industry by the end of 2009. Right now, BD is still on it's way to achieving it's goals for this year.
Quote:
However, as for how much they make from discs sold what matters to the studios distributing the movies... why should we care?
See the above bad news comment. The consumer has no voice in all of this. The sooner you realize that profitability is the ultimate goal of the industry, the clearer you'll see the picture.
Quote:
I specifically said future possibilities, and yes in a few years it's going to be possible and profitable for movie studios to deliver movies on non-optical disc media.
The fact remains that it's still vaporware at this point. |
| aldan (Member) 14 September 2008 15:11 |
|
And YOU ARE EXACTLY the type of consumer I referred to in my previous post. All 3!!!!!!!!! What a goof!
Lemme guess............you have a PS2, PS3, Xbox, Xbox 360, Wii, Nintendo DS, PSP, Orig. Nintendo, Super Nintendo, NeoGeo, TurboGrafx, Sega Genesis. You probably have a 'yet-to-be-invented- 9.1 speaker system and BETA EVERYTHING. NERD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
do you even know what goof means?if you ever said that to my face you had better be ready to scrap.do you have anything concrete to say or is this verbal diahrea all we can expect? on topic now,i think maybe old andy is right to a point.the way it looks to me,we will probably be saying goodby to blueray and hello to another format in 5+ years.this has been the trend in the past and i dont see it changing now.i am not likely to buy a blueray player just yet.just my opinion. |
| ematrix (Junior Member) 14 September 2008 15:40 |
|
It's logical because not only the USB flash drives market is there and it's growing, but also Toshiba is the first one that has shown interest in developing a movie format for them; months ago they said that they're into that, as part of a lot of tech advances they're working at, which was discussed here at the forum.
Again... So I'm misquoting?, didn't Mr. Frank Simonis, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, made the absurd claim early 2007, that by the end of 2009, the BDA planned to have BD replacing DVD entirely, and I quote "Within three years it will just be Blu-ray"? Hell, it was also widely discussed here at the forum. I don't like you insinuating that I'm lying, which I never did.
It may be reach 7-8% market share by the end of 2008 in USA, but globally it's a completely different story, where BD market share is minimal to nonexistent, to the point that some stores have returned their BD movie stock, simply because nobody is buying them.
I'm sure you must live in USA, and therefore your perspective would be different if you saw the big picture. I have bad news for you. If Blu-ray is rather successful in USA, but a failure in the rest of the world, then it won't matter what they do, it won't be more than a niche market.
Even if BD can make it's projected revenue of $750 to $1B this year, still can't rightfully be called a $20 billion dollar industry. You're wrong about something, the consumer does have a voice in all of this, it simply can refuse to buy BD, just like it's happenning with a lot of people globally. The sooner you realize that, the clearer you'll see the picture.
You can keep insisting about the expense involved in a USB Flash driver movie format, but it won't be any differente than when BD started as well, because all new tech is expensive. Yet you're making claims based on the tendency of current prices for this media, and refuse to recognize that because they have made huge steps in just 2 years, it's fair to say that in a few years there's a strong possibility that it will became cheaper, larger and faster.
It's going to take more than 5 years before BD prices come down to J6P levels, but you're ask too much from people in believing blindly that we'll see by then, full-featured BD players for $50 or less, when more likely will be $100, bargain bin BD movies for $5, again more likely for $10, and larger 1080p HDTV's at $500 or less, when in fact will be closer to $700-$1000 for large HDTVs, specially when they have stated that you shouldn't expect dramatic price cuts on flat panel screens in the following years.
You can argue that I don't know the future of USB flash drives for sure, you may be right. Then again you don't know for sure what's BD future, to claim such inexpensive prices for BD players, movies, even HDTVs... even you can't provide unrefutable proof that this will actually happen.
If you want to look up about the stuff i talked earlier, be my guess, you should find it in the forum, I have no need to lie, exagerate or make up things along the way. I'm really tired and actually have other things to do, to keep this on-going discussion. And I see no point to present links or quotes from articles, in order to support my viewpoint, if you're going to dismissed them.
Obviously my viewpoint, prefference and expectations differs from yours, if you can respect and accept mine, and let it be, then of course i'll extend to you the same courtesy and do the same, at least just for the sake of putting this discussion to an end.
|
| DXR88 (Member) 14 September 2008 15:42 |
|
Originally posted by aldan:
And YOU ARE EXACTLY the type of consumer I referred to in my previous post. All 3!!!!!!!!! What a goof!
Lemme guess............you have a PS2, PS3, Xbox, Xbox 360, Wii, Nintendo DS, PSP, Orig. Nintendo, Super Nintendo, NeoGeo, TurboGrafx, Sega Genesis. You probably have a 'yet-to-be-invented- 9.1 speaker system and BETA EVERYTHING. NERD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How dare you you forgot the Atari 2600, Atari 5200, Atari 7800 and Atari Jaguar, and you forgot the 3DO shame on you. |
| error5 (Senior Member) 14 September 2008 15:55 |
|
I wanted to reply to your other points but I think juankerr did a good job. However, there is one comment that I want to address:
Originally posted by ematrix:
So now you know that BD can't outsell DVD by the number of discs each sells, you want to rely on sales revenue in order to do so... how do think that's good for consumers?
Let me put it this way - a hypothetical scenario:
Let's say that DVD sold 200,000 units but all of them came from the $5 bargain bin at Walmart - that's $1 million right there.
However, to make the same amount BluRay will need to sell only 50,000 units at $20 each.
So in our hypothetical case, BluRay sold only 25% of the volume but made the same amount in actual dollars.
Now do you understand why volumes are less meaningful?
Read dblbogey7's post on this. It contains very good points:
Quote:
error5 & juankerr: I think the picture is more complicated than just the weekly percentages given by Nielsen.
Consider this: The profit margin for DVD is about $7 - $10 per unit while the profit margin for BD is roughly $14 - $20 per unit. So in terms of revenue, BD could overtake DVD when it reaches 34 to 35 percent of sales - not 51%.
BD could actually be more profitable even if it's being outsold by DVD 2:1.
Guess what number the studios are actually looking at: numbers sold or actual dollar revenue.
Granted, there are other factors to consider such as the declining costs of BD authoring and replication but you do get my point, right? It's just more complicated than just weekly head to head numbers.
|
| ematrix (Junior Member) 14 September 2008 16:17 |
|
Yes, I agree with you on that, but how does that help BD consumers? It doesn't change the fact that our goal as consumers is to pay the least possible for entertaiment, therefore while 50,000 consumers got one BD movie for their money, another 50,000 consumers got 4 DVD movies for the same amount... so 4 movies for the price of 1, that's an excelent deal that most people can't refuse, maybe even goes for more movies at such prices... and the more people buying DVD movies, the less will be buying BD movies... at least that's my viewpoint. |
| DXR88 (Member) 14 September 2008 16:28 |
|
|
you know you guys might make Afterdawn addict status just by arguing a pointless battle.
|
| error5 (Senior Member) 14 September 2008 18:03 |
|
Originally posted by ematrix:
Yes, I agree with you on that, but how does that help BD consumers? It doesn't change the fact that our goal as consumers is to pay the least possible for entertaiment,
Well you have to balance your "goal" to pay as little as possible with the economic reality that any product needs profitability to survive.
They can sell you the product for much less but if it means the format is losing money on each sale then that's not ideal either. What does it benefit anyone if they discontinue the format because it's losing money. You just lost your initial investment right there.
You may have achieved your goal of paying as little as possible but if your chosen format does not survive then you've lost out as well.
When your 2160p non-optical movies and 2160p displays come out do you think you'll be paying less than current BluRay and 1080p prices?
I expect to pay extra for BD because it has better PQ and AQ and is a better product than DVD across the board. Fact remains that player prices are coming down and movie prices should follow. (Read about Warner's plan to cut catalog prices.)
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14 September 2008 18:08
|
| ematrix (Junior Member) 15 September 2008 1:58 |
|
First of all, when 2160p non-optical movies come out and more 2160p displays are availible, they'll be at comparable prices than the initial ones for Blu-ray and 1080p displays; if those BD/1080p initial prices have decreased, and you insist that current prices will continue to lower, then you can't disregard the same will happen for 2160p.
As for the rest it simply doesn't make sense. It has been a common discussion among consumers, that DVD movies have been overpriced for years, specially when the production disc costs have decreased in the past years, and there's nothing that suggest that will not happen with BD movies as well.
We can't deny that the movie industry has been seeking to profit largely from each unit sold, which has resulted in people buying less movies legally that they can or should, rather than profiting from volume sales, which would result in more people buying movies legally.
Overpricing is a cancer that has been eating the movie industry (and the record industry as well) yet you get excited when reductions in optical disc production costs occur, as if inmediatelly would imply lower prices for the movies; if any the last decade has showed us, is that really means they can seek more profits by keeping movies overpriced.
To make things short, if they profit accordinly and fairly to what costs to produce it, then it should be reflected in the final price. If it costs a few dollars to produce, and consumers pay $5-15 for a movie, then that's a fair and accesible price, which will appeal to more people than when a movie is priced for $20-30.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 15 September 2008 3:01
|
| Toshibot (Junior Member) 15 September 2008 7:41 |
|
Originally posted by ematrix:
To make things short, if they profit accordinly and fairly to what costs to produce it, then it should be reflected in the final price. If it costs a few dollars to produce, and consumers pay $5-15 for a movie, then that's a fair and accesible price, which will appeal to more people than when a movie is priced for $20-30.
Movies prices are based on what the market can bear. Why should they sell at $5 when people are still buying at $20.
At this point in time HD movies are still a rich man's hobby. If you can't afford movies at $20 to $30 then I guess you should look for a different hobby.
Mass acceptance will come in its own sweet time. |
| error5 (Senior Member) 15 September 2008 7:52 |
|
Originally posted by ematrix:
If it costs a few dollars to produce, and consumers pay $5-15 for a movie, then that's a fair and accesible price, which will appeal to more people than when a movie is priced for $20-30.
Well unfortunately, prices do not depend on what the consumer wants to pay for it.
Prices depend on a complex interplay of supply and demand plus on other market forces that require a degree in business and economics to fully understand.
Why do you think the companies pay analysts to do all those marketing studies? |
| eatsushi (Senior Member) 15 September 2008 10:46 |
|
Originally posted by error5:
Well unfortunately, prices do not depend on what the consumer wants to pay for it.
Well sometimes you can. I was at a flea market yesterday and I was able to haggle for a nice set of Libbey wine glasses - 3 bucks for a set of 6. LOL!
I'm reminded of this classic scene from "Life of Brian."
Unfortunately the rest of the world doesn't work like a flea market and we are at the mercy of supply/demand and other mysterious market forces. |
| ematrix (Junior Member) 21 September 2008 7:47 |
|
First of all, movies prices are based on what the movie industry and everyone involved in the process wants to gain from each unit sold. The problem is that a huge percentage of DVD users aren't buying movies legally, they never had, period. ¿Can we assure that everybody that owns a DVD player, buys movies legally? Absolutely not.
That's why they make a big deal about "piracy", because they know that there's a lot of people that aren't buying movies legally, when they preffer to get a copy for a few bucks, or downloading it for free, than to pay for overpriced movies... this is common knowledge.
Indeed, movie prices do not depend on what the consumer wants to pay for them. But the bottom line is that consumers can choose, like they have been doing for the past decade, to decline from buying them legally.
DVD's mass acceptance came to be, not thanks to past and current movie prices, but when players, recorders, and blank discs, became so cheap and accesible, that allowed pirates to appeal to more consumers with lower prices for the movies, and profit more from volume sales, or allow users to rent or borrow a movie, and make their own copy.
I don't aprove pirates actions, yet I recognize that they have been smarter in profiting from large volume sales, and given the masses exactly what they're asking for, good entertaiment at a low price, rather than profiting largely from overpricing each unit sold, which translates in low volume sales.
BD is far from reaching that point, sure you'll have a hard time finding someone offering you BD copies, and it's not in the movie industry's best interest for it to happen, yet it's ironic that until BD recorders and blank discs became cheaper and accesible, if that ever happens, BD will not reach mass acceptance.
Greed has blind them from reversing this, and it doesn't require a degree in business and economics, to realize that the best way to attrack more consumers into buying movies legally, is lowering their prices dramaticly. |
| Brennan22 (Newbie) 29 September 2008 21:38 |
|
Originally posted by DXR88:
Jesus, what the hell. longest argument ever on a non-related issue Award Goes to....(Name Goes Here)
Who gives a flipping Monkey's Wazoo about what Samsung thinks.
There wrong there will always be a need for Optical Disc based Medium, 4 Generations of Optical Media just doesn't fall off the map cause samsung says so.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
LaserDisc
Compact-Disc
DVD
Blue-Ray
Are your 4 Generations.
|
| 1bonehead (Senior Member) 29 September 2008 21:48 |
|
Originally posted by DXR88:
you know you guys might make Afterdawn addict status just by arguing a pointless battle.
DXR88, I agree !
| | | |
Post your comment